Wert,very nice use of the Chronicles Spoiler Cryptex. Luckily, I know the combination.
Aegon, good stuff. Thanks.
Dorne does have a large coastline, but much of the land is unhospitable to non-natives. Arianne's small party had to plan well to cross Dorne, so I imagine an army would have a near impossible time of it.
Storm's End seems to be impregnable. It opens the way to the plains of the south and the road up to King's Landing. If Dany landed here and took the castle by storm or surprise (Stannis still holds it with a skeleton garrison), then she'd put a threat on the Highgarden flank allowing the Dornish armies to move up the passes. Logistically speaking, this is all I have to add... I'll bow to Aegon's wisdom.
Of the major houses of Westeros, the Martells (Dorne) and the Tyrells (Highgarden) are the two most loyal to the Targaryens... at least they were the last two to bend the knee to Robert... and it seems that they did so because 1) they read the writing on the wall, ie. they could not single-handedly stand up to the combined might of the Lannisters, Starks, Baratheons, Tullys, and Arryns and 2) they hate each other and refused to cooperate to continue the fight for the Targs (this is my conjecture, I don't really have hard proof). If you remember, Ned relieved Stannis at Storm's End thus ending the armed resistance of Mace Tyrell and all Targ loyalists (except for the three Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy). It seems that Doran bowed to the inevitable, well, seemingly, we now know he was already hatching the Viserys+Arianne plot.
So all that is to say, will Highgarden and Dorne both support Danaerys? Dorne will. But will the Tyrells? They may still be closet Targ loyalists or they may be extremely ambitious and eyeing the Iron Throne for themselves.
In favor of the Tyrells being closet Targs, first, Aegon the Conqueror made them the Lords of Highgarden and the Marches. Before this they were a supporting family of the previous dynasty. They owe their position and power to the Targs. The Lannisters seems to still regard the Tyrells as lower class nobility, even though they've been a major house for the last three hundred years. Second, Mace never joined Robert's rebellion. He only surrendered when the Targs were decisively defeated. Third, Olenna seems to be a major factor in Tyrell policy decisions. She's been around a long time. She may have personal interests in the Targs, ie. the Good Old Days. She may know the Lannisters and Arryns (the two eldest and noble houses of the Andals) will not allow an upstart house supplant them and rule over them. The Tyrells might guess that the greatest house in the land, after the Targaryens of course, is the best that they should hope for. Fourth, is Loras really hurt? A full body cast may be the way to disguise him. Other houses have sent male emissaries to Dany, why not House Tyrell? Tell everyone Loras is in a full body cast (who's gonna peel it off?) while Loras secretly rides to meet Dany? Fifth, Margaery is Queen, but she's never officially consumated any of her marriages. This keeps her husbands weak politically and ripe for supplanting because they have no heirs.
Perhaps the Tyrells want the Throne for themselves. First, the Martells and the Greyjoys are sending envoys to Dany, while it seems that the Martells have not. Seriously, would you entrust the survival of your family to the diplomatic skills of Loras? Neither would I. Second, Margaery has been crowned Queen of the Seven Kingdoms (three separate times). If Tommen were killed, would Dany just allow Margaery to quietly abdicate? Dany, herself, is living proof that you must kill all survivors of the previous dynasty or you are just putting off payment. Third, Mace seems very opportunistic. The support for Renly was not just for show. I believe it was a serious attempt by the Tyrells to make themselves the de facto rulers of Westeros. They knew Renly was gay. What if Renly never had a child with Margaery? Then I think the Tyrells would have gotten Renly to adopt Garlan as his heir and the Tyrell take over would have been complete. Or Olenna borrowing a page from the Targaryen history books would have sent Garlan or another Tyrell henchman to impregnate Margaery thus preserving the Tyrell hold on House Baratheon. Fourth, the Tyrells have lived for three hundred years with the Lannisters and Arryns in ascendence over them (and they might well live another three hundred years that way), but the thought of the Martells being the main power after Dany will really anger the Tyrells. They won't take a back seat to the Martells. If Dorne allies with Dany before Highgarden can, then this just might be the deciding factor for the Tyrells to oppose Danaerys I.
Happy Thanksgiving to those of you in the U.S.
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