wheres she going to land?

[TK-421]

I'm sorry but did you just mention that great actor Steven Segall? Where are those straws???

Personally, I would of quoted Forrest Gump: "Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get."

While I agree with you assertion that GRRM would dispose of important characters easily, I doubt he would of devoted POV's to Asha (who is supposed to be back with another POV in ADWD), the Damphair, Victarion and Theon (who is expected to be the returning POV in ADWD) if he just intended on killing them all off. Therefore, like it or not, the Greyjoy's have a big part to play in how this will all end.

 

[leoj826]

i think you guys have looked over some of dany's important character traits. she doesn't care what nobles think of her, and why should she. she has dragons. also dany want more than anything for the small folk to love her. she is the peoples champion. every one shes met compares her raeghar not the mad king.
she has to go assahi before she will ever land in the seven kingdoms. i think that when she gets to the land of shadow she finds the road to the ruins of valeryia.
the most important person she is going to meet in exile is tryion. who else is left that will know anything about dragons. i imagine that he will teach her how to control them, or at least inform her of the tools she needs to harness their power.
she can't land in the seven kingdoms until her dragons are full grown, and when they are she'll realize she doesn't need an army. she just needs her unsullied to guard her keep. i think that by the time she has control of the dragons and they are large enough to take to battle the wall will be down, and all of westeroes will be in peril. which allows all the kingdom (great lords and small folk) to flock to her banner as the only hope.

 

[Koopa]

well assassins can kill anybody. Also Dany at the moment doesn't truly have dragons, the dragons have her

 

[Weasel Soup]

This seemed like the most relevant thread to post this....

I was thinking of the discussion Doran and Arianne regarding the heir of Dorne and Quentyn, in which Doran basically states his hope for the return of the Targaryens.

Now I agree with most, that Dany will meet both Quentyn and Tyrion, and despite my earlier posts I am now apt to believe that they will most likely land in Dorne.

But now I am thinking of when.

I am not of the school of thought that the dragons are necessary to defeat the others, being just juveniles in the spoiler chapter from ADOD, and I believe their mere existance is part of a larger cycle of the rebirth of magic, which will be necessary to defeat the others (coldhands, children et al).

The other issue that I find interesting is Doran's remarkable patience.

So, if Dany can be affected by Doran's patience, allow her dragons to fully mature and land after winter are her chances improved greatly?

What does winter promise to Westeros? Mass depopulation and more disarray. The war left the stores and last crops burnt or ruined, Cersei is making a fine mess of any remaining political stability, and the impending crisis I doubt will cause more unity.

I think Jorah's lesson to her about Rhaegar may speak to her at this point aswell. Let Stannis fight noblely and die, and Dany take the throne.

any thoughts?

 

[TK-421]

Sounds like the Russian countryside in the winters of 1944/45.

The fact that the dragons are still young (but growing quickly) and that Dany has yet to learn how to fully control them will be the deciding factor for her of when she crosses the Narrow Sea. A trip to old Valyria and Victarion's assistance may be instrumental here.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Do you think TK that she has time to make the trip to old valyria?

If we assume she needs to land in Westeros sometime just after the Others make it successfully past the wall or sooner....I make that assumption because if the Other make it far past the wall there really is nothing in the north or riverlands to slow them....about the only thing keeping them from supping at Kings Landing at this point is the Wall itself and warmth. I wouldnt hold my breath on the latter lasting too long. So assuming Dany needs to take a month to cross the ocean I would think she needs to launch sometime in the next month or two to make the timeline I described.

Of course, as Boaz would say...Ive been wrong before. Maybe not as spectacularly wrong as Boaz but I try....

 

[TK-421]

Thing is, Aegon, Dany does not know about the Others or the threat they pose to the kingdom. So, Dany should probably go soon but I'm hoping the rest of the plan is laid out by Varys, Quentyn and Illyrio in ADWD and that the plan is solid. You get one chance to make a first impression on a war-torn and starving continent.

 

[Boaz]

Spectacularly wrong? Never... mayhaps I've been over zealous in my assertions, but that's... wait... are you saying that I do something better than anyone else? Oh joy and rapture! I'm the best at something!

Back to Dany...

I just cannot get over the five year gap that GRRM had planned between books three and four (or was it four and five). I still see her ruling and learning to dispense justice along Slaver's Bay for the next few years.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Of course Dany doesnt know about the Others....but George does and I was basing my supposition off of a conjectured story line that probably does not exist.....in other words, I "Boazed" it.

Yer right Boazie. Not about being the best at being wrong, about the altered time gap. I forgot to factor that in. Theres going to be several story threads that will get little attention Im thinking and Dany is likely to be one. I for one thought the fast forward would be interesting but I guess on this one Im going to have to bow to George's wisdom. Hey maybe some good things can happen to the Stark family during the interim, that would be a nice change of pace.

 

[Boaz]

My name is now a verb?!?! Oh, now I know I've arrived!

Good things happening to the Starks would now be a nice change of pace indeed.

Dany has been called something like "a young Stannis" in this forum. So if Stannis first landed at Storm's End and stole many of Renly's knights, then landed at King's Landing but was driven off, and finally landed at the Wall, then what will Dany do? Will she land in three different places? Will she meet with frustration and defeat before she's able to gain a foothold? Will she just be relegated to the extreme south as Stannis is relegated to the extreme north?

 

[TK-421]

Perhaps, the title of the last book, A Dream of Spring, is an indication that good things may happen to the remaining Starks. Bran being the spring most likely.

Comparing Dany and Stannis??? Why, let me at them!! Dany is not Stannis and has more tactical abilities than he ever did. Especially with Tyrion, Quentyn, Victarion and Barristan the Bold at her side.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Ahh here we go....you put a Dany/Stannis comparison right in my wheelhouse by using the word "tactical"....

First and foremost one minor point of clarification....the word tactics refers to small direct engagements, whereas strategy refers to the large campaign direction kind of stuff. For example, Stannis moving all his troops north to the Wall was a strategic decision, choosing to utilize his heavy calvalry in a pincer movement was a tactical decision. Or more appropriately, Robb was a tactical genius and a strategic idiot.

The first rule of warfare is and always shall be "All Warfare is deception". Everything else stems from that. No thats not a Charlie Sheen quote from Wall Street...Stannis couldnt grasp that on either level. His assault on KL was as by the book as it could be....control the river with a flotilla, move his men across on his "boat bridge", besiege the city. There was no planning for contingencies. Storms End was the same way. No creative thinking. No attempt to deceive in the slightest way.

Tactics are a different matter entirely. Stannis does understand what it takes to engage the enemy, by the book. The simple rock-paper-scissors considerations of warfare he gets (that would be things like pikes beat light calvary, light calvary beats archers, archers beat pikes etc). But still lacks that creative spark that separates the men from the boys. Of those that we've seen Robb is by far the most creative on a tactical level.

Dany on the other hand does have a certain cunning. We saw it with the selling of the dragons, we saw it with the manipulation of the mercenaries, we saw it with the decision to send Belwas out to face the champion....she has a undeveloped sense of cunning. So the question becomes, can she plan a campaign? Or actively command an engagement with the enemy? The answer to both is no. In both regards I would pick Stannis, but that is clearly only true at the present. Dany has a tremendously higher ceiling of ability and as it stands with the right mentoring she has made excellent strides.

Regret using the word tactical yet?

 

[TK-421]

I will borrow a word from our friends across the pond, Aegon: BULLOCKS!!

Fine, I should of used the word "strategy" and I do regret it. If only I could reach that small part of my back I yet not flogged.

But, as for Stannis...all I can say is piiffffffff.....

 

[Boaz]

Robb was a tactical genius and a strategic idiot.

There are multiple proverbs to cover this statement... take your pick.
The apple does not fall far from the tree.
Can't see the forest for the trees.
Like father, like son.
Common sense ain't common.
Ability can take you to the top, but character keeps you there.
Don't bite the hand that feeds you.

TK, you think Victarion will stay with Dany? My feeling from AFFC was that Victarion was for Ironborn Independence. Even if he could join with Dany and be made Prince of the Iron Islands and Lord of the Riverlands, would he subject his people to this? I think Dany will be about as impressed with the prospect of Victarion's presence in her Small Council as Cersei was with Tyrion's.

I think Victarion will want an alliance with Dany that will ensure himself as king of an independent nation. And just like Stannis, Dany will refuse to divide her kingdom and inherit less than her full birthright. So Victarion will have to submit to Dany or slink back to Euron. I think it all boils down to how much does Victarion hate Euron.

Does Victarion hate Euron enough to forfeit Balon's plans and the Ironborn's Drowned God's given rights to live free and plunder? Victarion has already swallowed his pride enough to be civil to the man who seduced/raped his wife. I think Victarion will swallow even more pride by continuing to serve Euron by either attempting to steal a dragon, attempting to assassinate Dany, or taking his fleet back to Euron and continue his reaving ways.

Now Barristan, BFS as Egg calls him, is another topic altogether. Will he accept Tyrion? I think he'll remind Dany that Tyrion's brother slew her father, that Tyrion's father betrayed her family, that Tyrion's father's men murdered her aunt and niece and nephew, that Tyrion's father's money propped up the usurper's throne while forcing her into penury, that Tyrion's sister was the wife of the man who sent assassins after Viserys and Dany and Rhaego, that Tyrion's sister is the Queen Regent, and that Tyrion's nephew (twice over) is the current usurper.

BFS loathes the Kingslayer. He'll see the same taint in Tyrion. When Dany asks Tyrion "Why should I accept you?", Tyrion must reply "Because I slew Tywin the Betrayer." Then Barristan will name Tyrion a Kinslayer. Barristan is done with shades of gray and rationalizations... I think his world is now black and white. It is there that he finds meaning and purpose. Tyrion's shady past will be next to impossible to reconcile with Barristan's White Cloak.

But then again, Barristan has sworn to serve Dany, so he'll have to go with whatever she decides.

I think Quentyn in under orders to assist Dany in any way possible. The Martells are open to almost any coalition that supports the Targaryens and condemns the Lannisters. Quentyn will be for omitting Tyrion from Dany's alliance (he'll probably openly want Tyrion's head), but I think he'll go along with whatever Dany decides.

The Martells are pragmatic enough to know that the deaths of Tywin, Cersei, Jaime, Myrcella, Tommen, Kevan, Lancel, and Genna will finish any Lannister designs on the Iron Throne... IF Tyrion swears undying fealty to House Targaryen. Completely destroying House Lannister will weaken the Westerlands considerably so that House Tyrell and House Greyjoy will gain much power... and this is bad for Dorne.

Does anyone think that Tyrion will think that Dany resembles Tysha or Dany? Forget about hair and eye color... Might Tyrion think she resembles either of his former loves? Jorah sure did.

 

[TK-421]

Good analysis Boaz. I will not pontificate too much but will answer some of the questions with my thoughts:

Will Victarion stay with Dany? I think yes, he will as he will see this as the only assured way to get rid of Euron. His hatred for his brother will drive him to make such an alliance with Dany and when you're alone at sea with that hatred, it just gets harder and not softer.

What about Tyrion and his prospects? Personnally, I think you're bang on in saying that he Barristan will indeed remind Dany of this but was Barristan around to witness Tyrion's term as Hand? I am unsure. If he was, then I think Barristan may indeed find something good to say about Tyrion as the only Lannister she could trust. Furthermore, I disagree that Barristan sees things as simply black and white. When you're a kingsguard, you see too much to make such stark judgements and everything gets grayed. Although, Barristan does indeed have his honour.

Quentyn and Dorne, like Victarion, comes to Dany with an agenda. Be it that their agenda includes a return to Targ rule, but an agenda nonetheless. Their agenda is also driven by hatred for those who killed Rheagar's brood. So, some parallel to what drives Victarion. REVENGE!

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

I think a lot of times we forget about Barristan F Selmy being present during Aerys, Dany, Robert, and Joffreys tenures as leaders. Okay that should read "I forget". So thats a good point Boaz and actually bodes well for potential for relations with Jon, Tyrion, and others.

I do seem to recall a meeting of the Little Council from Tyrions perspective that included BFS. But as always I could be mistaken, regardless though Tyrion was around the court often enough that he and Selmy should be familiar enough with each other. With that in mind I dont think Selmy would neccessarily care for Tyrions character at this point but he is shrewd enough to realize Tyrion is certainly useful to have around.

I think if left to her own devices Dany would not employ Tyrion in any sort. The Lannisters have to be the second most hated family name she could think of. But Barristan will whisper that Tyrion is clever beyond clever and she will seek to use him some way like only a "naive little girl playing at war" can. The fact that he killed Tywin will only show he has no place else to go, not that he'd be neccessarily loyal to Dany, and I think she realizes that much.

In the end Dany will be shrewd about Tyrion because George needs her to be.

 

[YOSSARIAN]

I'm pretty sure Tyrion was in Catelyn's hands or had just gotten free when Selmy was discharged. If my memory serves me correctly Tyrion and Tywin discuss his dismissal when Tyrion shows up with his mountain clans (right before Bolton's troops attack-I can't seem to remember the location of this Lannister camp.) Tywin understands that removing Ser Barristan is a mistake and that is one of the reasons he sends Tyrion to KL to rein in the idiocy of hsi daughter and grandson. What Selmy knows of Tyrion will be based solely on Tyrion's behavior at court and we can assume that it doesn't cast him in a positive light. Which is unfair, because I think Selmy would have respected Tyrion the Hand much more than Tyrion the Imp Whoremonger.

 

[Boaz]

Yoss, You are right. BFS is fired during a Sansa POV. Tywin and Tyrion discuss this when Tywin decides to send Tyrion to serve as Hand. Tyrion then explains to Cersei how much credence BFS could lend to Stannis, Renly, or Robb.

Egg, Mayhaps Dany will know that Tyrion has burned his last bridge with the Lannisters and that he will serve her loyally or die.

On the other hand, mayhaps Barristan is personally sympathetic to Tyrion. If BFS knows about Tyrion's reverence for the dragon skulls in the Red Keep, if BFS knows about Tyrion's honoring of the Targaryen dynasty and culture, and if Tyrion never opened his big mouth and aimed it at BFS, then mayhaps Barristan has a soft spot for the Imp.

In the end Dany will be shrewd about Tyrion because George needs her to be.

I can't argue with that.

 

[TK-421]

A kingslayer and kinslayer has few options.

 

[Boaz]

T need to add a G and some bling bling if he's gonna be G-Money like J.