Always wonderful to see new people on the boards. Always great to see more and more fans enjoying Martin's work. Always wonderful to repost the same points on the same old debates on the same old topics every 8 months.
As far as your timeline goes, its what I had put together also, with 2 exceptions. I think Lyanna and Rhaeger had met, and fallen in love long before the tournament, (Harrenhall - Jamie's white cloak, knight of the laughing tree) hence he crowns her queen of beauty. There's also a line somewhere in "Game of Thrones" in a Ned chapter about Lyanna saying Robert was a great guy but would never change (the sleeping around), more indication that she had chosen Rhaeger over Robert. Also, Daenerys has a line in "Clash of Kings," something about Rhaeger fighting for the woman he loved, then falling at the Trident.
The other thing: Given all that we know about the open decadence of the Dornish court, I'm pretty sure Elia not only knew about Rhaeger's love affair, but would have encouraged it. (Oberyn told Tyrion that Ellaria wanted Cersei.) Maybe Lyanna liked it, refused to go back and marry Robert, and that's why Brandon and Rickard were done in. They didn't "run into Aery's," they were demanding Rhaeger return Lyanna. Even if she was happy and in love, her Lord father would've never understood it. Lyanna was meant to be the Lady of a great house, not a concubine. "No one makes demands on the Dragon!" everyone is killed, the war breaks out.
Next bit: who knew what. The last living member of the Kingsguard who would've known why those three, the best three, the most famous three, were at the Tower of Joy instead of the Trident protecting Rhaeger or in Kings Landing protecting Aery's is Selmy Barriston. Jaimie probably knows, but then he was the low man on the totem pole. It is doubtful he was trusted completely with everything.
The maesters called it the War of Five Kings, and they were mistaken. I think its all still the aftermath of Robert's Rebellion. Who sits the Iron Throne consumes most of the books, but I don't think that that's the driving story arc. The struggle against winter, the Others, that's the overall story arc and the series will end when its been decided. The secondary driving story arc is the mystery of Jon's parents/House Stark because it will tie into the struggle against winter. We will learn the truth, probably when Daeny brings the dragons home. The third tier story arc, the one that binds these first three books together providing motivation to the characters and influencing their choices would be 'who killed Jon Arryn.' I think if there had been as much time between
Clash of Kings and
Storm of Swords, as there has been between
Storm of Swords and
Feast for Crows, these message boards would be dominated by Arryn's murder and not Jon's parents