New Theory on Varys

[Fourth Hunter]

I have just started to re-read AGoT and a thought struck me during one of the Arya chapters. It was the chapter where she was down in the dungeons of King's Landing after chasing a cat for Syrio. She comes across two men who are conspiring to kill Eddard because they are Targaryen sympathizers. When the "wizard" who was asked to kill him asked for "gold and another fifty birds" it struck me that the man might be Varys. It has become well depicted that Varys has the ability to make himself unrecognizable, even to those who sit on the small council with him. Also, when the Arya was describing the man she said that she noticed that the man had "something oddly familiar about him" (344 Bantam Paperback, USA; AGoT). If this is actually Varys then those who have suspected that he is a Targaryen sympathizer are proved to be correct. Also, why does he always seem to be on the side of the person that he is speaking to. It has become a common theme in the series that those who seem dedicated to your cause are most likely acting as double agents, (i.e. Bolton and Theon, Eddard and Littlefinger, etc).

 

[Culhwch]

Not really a new theory, there, Fourth Hunter, though we'll forgive you. The other man is most likely Illyrio, Dany's 'sponsor' in the East, for want of a better term.

I would say there is an element of self-preservation in Varys' duplicity, not to mention manipulation. He isn't after all likely to come out in the Small Council and say, 'Sorry, Cersei, I'm working for the Dragon Queen.'

 

[Fourth Hunter]

I was unclear and had not thought the post through, I meant that it was new to me. I will try to think these posts through more in the future. Now, I was under the impression that Illlyrio was too far from King's Landing to have been the man mentioned previously. Also, why would Arya have remarked that there was something familiar about him? Along with the fact that he asked for fifty "birds", a term Varys repeatedly uses to describe his contacts, I remain convinced that it was Varys.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Null stress on the theory posting FH. Some here will condemn you, one guy even shot down a theory of mine once saying it was stated six months previous on another message board...apparently I didnt do enough research, but for the most part we like talking about stuff so much we'll rehash all the main points all over again.

Which gentlemen did Arya claim looked familiar? I always thought it was the one we assume was Varys. Therefore Arya having been in court a couple of weeks would mayhaps have seen him about. As always I could be mistaken.

I always enjoyed the malleability of Varys. His ability to make everyone think he somehow was in their debt or working for them was astounding. He would do just enough to make you think he was on your side, meanwhile sowing chaos and discord to further his Targaryen agenda. Personally I dont neccessarily think the Targs are his ultimate loyalty like some people contend here, but thats another matter for a different day.

Im sorry, what was the question again?

 

[Culhwch]

I was unclear and had not thought the post through, I meant that it was new to me. I will try to think these posts through more in the future. Now, I was under the impression that Illlyrio was too far from King's Landing to have been the man mentioned previously. Also, why would Arya have remarked that there was something familiar about him? Along with the fact that he asked for fifty "birds", a term Varys repeatedly uses to describe his contacts, I remain convinced that it was Varys.

No need to think through posts, here, FH... That'd put you in the minority. As Aegon said, we do love a good rehash.

But I think you misunderstood me. I meant the prevailing theory is that, yes, the familiar man was certainly Varys, with the other likely to be Illyrio. But then, I would not in the least bit be surprised to be proven wrong.

 

[Boaz]

No need to think through posts, here, FH... That'd put you in the minority. As Aegon said, we do love a good rehash.

I resemble that remark! And I do love a good rehash... it's like the days after Thanksgiving.

FH, like Cully and Aegon mentioned, don't worry about it. It was a new thought to you... and that's good. Personally, I've posted numerous threads where I thought I had a completely original thought only to have Aegon and company gently remind me that my idea was not new.

But your comment about the fifty "birds" started me thinking... and only time will tell if my thoughts are original. Anyway, if the second man is Illyrio Mopatis (from the Free Cities) and if the birds are children spies for Varys, then does Illyrio get children from the Free Cities? If the children are not Westerosi, how do they spy so successfully for Varys. If the children are from Westeros and Illyrio is supplying them, then how does he get them? Are they slaves? Ned and most of the nobles would seem to frown greatly upon selling citizens as slaves... if this is happening who is selling them?

 

[Culhwch]

Now, see, Boaz, I believe I recall a lengthy discussion about that very thing awhile back...

EDIT: This is one of them:

http://www.chronicles-network.com/forum/4707-a-terrible-secret.html?highlight=birds

...from way back in February 2005, when I was yet a newbie.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Yeah Boaz....yer search-fu is lacking....gah, this site has a search engine for a reason....<insert lame smiley emoticon so the joke is understood>

Okay Im done being myself essentially.....

I think yer thinking on the little birds is slightly erroneous. He has little birds all over the world. So those 50 could be of any descent in any city around the world. With the correct handler (thats the local cell leader, probably an adult who sifts through the information gathered and decides what to send forward) the childs nationality shouldnt be much a problem. They can easily be trained to speak without an accent if they can speak. A dirty streetchild is the same the world over. Theres some color differences obviously, but the normal telltales are the cultural and ethnic sensibilities which are completely lost on children.

Anyhow...yer mileage may vary and all that

 

[Boaz]

FH, don't ever feel bad for not having an original thought here. See, even my latest original thought was unoriginal. Never worry about rebukes, they're done out of love.

<Boaz huddles with Culhwch and Aegon.>

Boaz: Good job guys. You supported me perfectly in my plan to make FH not feel self-conscious.

Culhwch: What?

Boaz: Yeah, I intentionally tossed out an idea that I knew was not original so that the new kid would not be scared away.

Aegon: We don't believe you.

Culhwch: You really thought you were being original, admit it.

Boaz: Come on, you know me. I'm always trying to make people feel good. I'm a giver.

Aegon: Well, you're full of it that's for sure.

Boaz: Okay, good huddle, guys.

Culhwch: Whatever.

<Boaz breaks the huddle.>

PS - This site has a search engine? Hmmmm. Well the kicker seems to be that I actually posted on the thread that Cully mentioned.

 

[Culhwch]

Well the kicker seems to be that I actually posted on the thread that Cully mentioned.

I wasn't going to say anything....

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Im gonna take a minute to defend Boaz here....Boaz types so much mindless drivel he cant be expected to remember all the prattle his addled mind spews forth...

See? Ill consider yer heartfelt thank you already uttered Boaz

 

[Fourth Hunter]

The thing about this is that I don't know what Illyrio gets from supporting Dany. He is obviously spending enough to put them in power, (paying Varys, getting dragon eggs, etc.) but it is mentioned earlier in AGoT that he never had a friend that he wouldn't betray for the right price. Why is he suddenly loyal to the Targaryens? Who is directing Illyrio and promising to pay him more than he is spending?

 

[Lady Blackfyre]

Didn't GRRM himself say it was Varys and Illyrio? I'm pretty sure he did.

 

[TomServo]

The thing about this is that I don't know what Illyrio gets from supporting Dany. He is obviously spending enough to put them in power, (paying Varys, getting dragon eggs, etc.) but it is mentioned earlier in AGoT that he never had a friend that he wouldn't betray for the right price. Why is he suddenly loyal to the Targaryens? Who is directing Illyrio and promising to pay him more than he is spending?

I figure that he believes that Dany will sweep through and become queen. So after this happens he is now in the position of being on her side for the entire time. There may be a lordship in it for him in the Seven Kingdoms, which adds to his already seemingly substantial wealth.

 

[Fourth Hunter]

I think that it is out of character for Illyrio to risk so much for the possibility of gaining so little. I don't believe that supporting Dany is going to be any more profitable than killing her at this point. It is also obviously harder to support her than to simply have killed her and Viserys when they were staying with him. If you remember, Robert offered a lordship to anyone who killed them.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Well the question you have to ask yourself is what does he stand to lose? Hes a powerful citizen of the Free Cities so I dont see Baratheons wrath intimidating him. Really he risks nothing, even gained an alliance with the Dothraki to protect his buisness interests in that bleak vastness. What? You think he brokered a marriage with nothing for himself? But thats probably just icing on the cake for him, no he gained a potential alliance with the ruler of westeros or if things fell apart he could always cough V and D up to Robert as a bargaining chip of his own and gain an alliance with the ruler of westeros.

So wheres the downside?

 

[Fourth Hunter]

There is the downside of losing all of the resources required to keep them alive while he would have gained just as much by simply killing Dany and Viserys.

 

[Koopa]

Ilyrio Mopatis is a very rich men, so i do not think the prospect of money would be a greet lure for him, as for a minor noble title, i doubt that would enthrall him much.

He and Varys are close, and clearly this friendship mean something to him.
Moreover i can gain much more by helping Dany and thus Varys his schemes.
He is rich, he probably has some power and probably does not mind a few risk, rather he strikes me as someone who rather enjoyes a controlled gamble.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

FH, Im not going to disagree too stringently with you....but I think yer not seeing the two as the assets that our merchant friend does. Sure he could lose the money he spent effecting their capture and transport and housing, but thats a pittance against the possible gain.

I think the most important point to consider is if he truly is motivated by greed and not any loyalty to Varys or the Targ line then he risks nothing. No matter how much he spends housing and feeding them I assure you if things went poorly he could gain much more from Robert.

If things went well (as they reasonably did) then he gains the friendship of both the Dothraki and Dany. They are indebted to him, and he is allied to the Master of Spies in Westeros......Im sure the fact that Varys controls the information to their enemy was factored in.

If ya still disagree, you have a fair point....but Im just gonna say I disagree with it and move along in a gentlemanly fashion.

 

[Fourth Hunter]

Aegon, the only reason that you haven't yet convinced me is that I am way to stubborn to change my thinking. It just isn't in my nature to change my mind. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree (won't post more argument because you have begun to sway me, when I change my mind I'm usually dead wrong).