Tyrion's Third - Littlefinger and subtlety.

[Aegon the Unworthy]

All your speculation is nice Boaz. Except the wording of the passage implies that the Queens are currently ruling and making a muck of his plans. Therefore once again I have to assume its Cersei Margy and Dany.

The quote to which I speak is in Alaynes last chapter in AFFC....so it would be after Margy got arrested, before Cersei did likewise, and after Myrcella's accident at the hands of the progeny of House Dayne.

Here it is..."...Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next,helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now...it is a good thing I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

So what Im saying is, Cersei is clearly one queen....Margy/Olenna is another, so who is the third whose machinations are ruining his plans and causing chaos? Not Sansa....she's not really doing anything. Its either Dany or he's referring to Margy/Olenna as two different queens.

 

[Falsteed]

Sansa's claims are not immediate, but they are there. She fits prominently into a number of successions. She is the de facto heir of the North... that is if Bran and Rickon never surface. Barring a son born to Roslyn Tully and a return of Bran and Rickon, I think Sansa is considered as heir of Riverrun.

I really can't participate in all the talk until I reread the story and remember everything, but what happened to Robb legitamizing Jon? Did he die before anything could be done officially?

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Oh my....way to put one in the wheelhouse....

Who is Robbs heir?

Suffice it to say, we dont actually know if Robb legitimized Jon. He debated it with Catelyn then Catelyn (the POV) was removed from the council chamber before Robb actually made his decree. So enjoy that read....

 

[Falsteed]

I was going to make a comment on Arianne and Dorne in the last post, and in referencing some information found out the new pov. These conversations are evil.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Okay Im not buying that the Westerlings were in cahoots with Tywin from the outset. For that to happen they would have to expect their castle to be stormed (as I recall this is Robbs more daring escapades--making a long climb to assault the Crag). They would have to expect Robb to be injured, they would have to expect Robb to do something dumb. Only one out of the three could be anticipated.

What most likely happened is Robb assaulted the Crag. The infidelity occured, and good ole Sybell immidiately realized the import of things. If Robb loses she and her family will likely be put to death or at least treated to the Kings Justice...if Robb wins he may not find out about her machincations and she can stop killing off her Robbs potential heirs at any time.

So she keeps her entreaty to Tywin a secret (hence even the Freys didnt know to save the Westerling uncle at the Red Wedding) and her family acts as loyal vassals to Robb. Then when Robb loses, her actions get her and hers a pardon.

In all actuality a nice bit a double dealing.


Oh and Arianne is out as a potential queen because at best she would be a princess. Unless LF was taking literary liscence with the term queen....in which Melissandre is back in as a potential.

 

[Boaz]

Egg, I'll buy the idea that Sybell was quick acting and opportunistic. I think she's made the best of the situation by selling out her daughter's feelings to insure the entire familiy's very existence.

Raul, if you keep up with comments like that, my arrogance and egotism will grow astronomically... and I'll become insuferable to the posters here. (Some may argue that I crossed that line long ago!) Nevertheless, I actually think the whole Sybell/Tywin alliance was mentioned elsewhere first, I just kind of expanded it.

I was going to make a comment on Arianne and Dorne in the last post, and in referencing some information found out the new pov. These conversations are evil.

Did you ever see the movie A Christmas Story? Remember how violated Ralphie felt when he found out that the secret code was actually a commercial? He was older and wiser... his innocence was lost forever. I felt that way the first time I read R+L=J online. I'd love to go back and believe it all...

 

[Falsteed]

Oh, our lost childhood.

 

[Charming Serpent]

Aegon, in my opinion is almost 100% correct in most of his assumptions. But for those people who dont understand how the small council found out about Sansa marrying Willas, its simple: In the book Dontos (who is in Littlefingers payroll) meets Sansa where she tells him about her proposed marriage. He then tells her that all they want is her claim and she cant run off with them. He most assuredly went right away to Petyr and told him of this, thus him telling the small council.

As to the 3 Queens: Its just my personal opinion, but I believe it refers to Cersei, Margerary and Dany. By now, more and more of the player in Westeros are hearing about her. The Citadel, Dorne etc... I don't believe he was speaking as if the 3 Queens were mucking things up, but more as just a simple fact of what will happen between these 3.

 

[Boaz]

CS, you nailed Littlefinger's source.

I am rereading AFFC. In Cersei's second chapter, iirc, Tommen marries Margaery. And Cersei remembers Maggy's prophecy that Cersei would become Queen until she's replaced by a younger, more beautiful woman. Cersei notes how Marg is pretty, but Cersei especially notes how most of Marg's beauty is sheer youth. Now I know that Cersei has been wrong before, in fact her miscalculations are legendary, but when it comes down to judging a woman's looks I think Cersei is on the ball. So... I'm trusting in Cersei's judgement and saying Margaery is out as one the Queen that supplants Cersei. Could Marg still be one of Littlefinger's three? Maybe, especially if either Cersei or Marg (or both) are driven from KL.

We discussed this in another thread... Could Jeyne Westerling be counted as one of Petyr's three? What if the Bolton's decide to throw off the Lannister yoke? This would make Jeyne "Fake Arya" Bolton nee Poole a queen.

I know up above I said 1) the winner of Cersei v. Margaery, 2) Dany, and 3) Sansa. But in my rereading, I think Littlefinger might have been alluding to Cersei, Dany, and Myrcella (or more precisely, Arianne ruling in Myrcella's name).

Is Darkstar on Littlefinger's payroll? If Littlefinger wants to keep setting the realm aflame, then murdering Myrcella in Dorne would certainly qualify.

 

[Charming Serpent]

To be quite honest as Varys said to Mopatis is Game of Thrones in the Red Keep "I don't know what game Littlefinger is playing" I truly have no solid ground to make an opinion because he is literally playing everyone vs everyone. So, my assumption about Dany being the 3rd Queen rests on the knowledge if (and I think he does due to him being onthe small council) he knows about Dany etc... I am fairly certain about my basis on Margerary Being queen due to the fact that everyone in KL at least calls her Queen and Cersei cant stand it also. So, One: We know Cersei is most assuredly one of the queens. Two: Due to her marriage with Tommen, technically marg is a queen now also. Third: Everyone over where Dany is acknowledges her a Queen.

I dont think Jeyne is considered one of the 3 due to the time Littlefinger states his 3 queen comment. i think it was well after the Red Wedding and Myrcella never was crowned, period. But, like I stated above, Littlefinger truly vexes me.

 

[Boaz]

Terribly?

 

[Charming Serpent]

Ha, yes, terribly.

 

[Boaz]

It vexes you. You are terribly vexed.

In the first part of AFFC, Cersei calls together her new Small Council. During the meeting, someone mentions that Littlefinger does not seem worried by Bronze Yohn Royce and the Lords Declarant... it seems that Littlefinger is interested in some of Robert's old tapestries.

Are the tapestries a red herring? Does anyone recall any tapestries from AGOT? Is it just a prelude to asking for something else, something seemingly inconsequential yet highly valuable? Do these tapestries have anything to do with Littlefinger's ability to produce prodigious amounts of coppers from thin air?

Not know the answer to this vexes me. I am terribly vexed.

 

[Charming Serpent]

You know, that is a very good question that I myself had thought. Was it just a simple thing that he wanted or do those tapestries have a hidden meaning etc... good call.

 

[Boaz]

Thinking today... (dangerous, I know).... about Baelish and Sansa.

Do you remember Middlefinger's lessons on becoming a player of the Game of Thrones? He told Sansa how unimaginative Joffrey is. After showing the jousting Dwarves to Joffrey, Middlefinger had to actually state how much they'd annoy Tyrion at the banquet. His point is that you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink..... sometimes you have to splash around in the water and even hold his head under to show him that it's wet. The bottom line is that Baelish revealed how he manipulated Joffrey to destabilize the throne.

Okay, Boaz... what's the point?

The point is that it was not the only time Middlefinger schemed to push Joffrey into action. Iam thinking (maybe some, or all of you, already knew this) that Baelish planned Eddard's execution. On the platform in front of the crowd are the following characters.... Joffrey, Sansa, Cersei, Varys, Baelish, the High Septon, Ilyn, Janos, four White Cloaks and some Gold Cloaks. Pycelle is not mentioned.

When Joffrey said (the best of my memory), "... but they have the soft hearts of women. So long as I am your king, treason shall never go unpunished Ser Ilyn.... bring me his head!" Cersei, Varys, and the High Septon all immediately protested. Sansa screamed. The Hound and Middlefinger, and four Kingsguard just stood there. Ser Ilyn, Lord Janos Slynt, and Janos' Gold Cloaks seized and beheaded Eddard. Some people were surprised and reacted accordingly Cersei, Varys, and the High Septon were agitated. Sansa was horrified. Some people held their places.... Sandor (Joffrey's sworn sword) stays next to Joffrey... the other White Cloaks also guard the king. Some people launched into action... like they knew exactly what was supposed to happen.... Ilyn, Janos, and the Gold Cloaks executed Eddard.

In the first three books, we find out that Ilyn and Janos (and thus the Gold Cloaks) are all on Baelish's payroll. Joffrey ordered Eddard's death and Middlefinger's men jumped to action.

From the reactions of Cersei, Varys, Sansa, and the High Septon, the arrangement with Eddard had been worked out and Joffrey had been informed. As long as Eddard was alive, a peace could still be brokered. So why did Joffrey condemn Eddard to death?

In the third book, Joffrey told Tywin something like "A strong king does as he pleases." Twyin sent Joffrey to bed and then questioned Cersei where Joffrey learned that thought. Cersei suddenly latched upon the idea that Robert had told that to Joffrey... and Tywin relented. We don't know that Robert ever said that... but it really seems like something that Baelish might have said to Joffrey in order to get him to kill Eddard.

Eddard's death is bad for the Starks.... and the Lannisters.... and the Baratheons.... and for the High Septon.... and for Varys (and Illyrio). The clear winner from the chaos and hatred from Eddard's demise is Middlefinger. The realm is torn asunder. Chaos reigns and Baelish can start inserting agents everywhere. And Baelish gets revenge for Brandon.

Back to Baelish teaching Sansa how to play the Game.... in giving her tips on how to manipulate people, he secretly confessed to killing her father.

I feel like I should have seen this twenty years ago... mayhaps you did. Congratulations.

 

[Young stormlord]

I thought that part was fairly obvious and the point of Varys's riddle "Who does sellsword listen to? The guy with the money." You'll also notice that he doesn't mention Littlefinger in the list of surprised people(paraphrased: "I was surprised, the queen was surprised, the septon was shocked and later furious because the Sept of Baelor has been despoiled" etc) and that Tyrion assumes for a long time that the rich guy is him and Lannisters, which is incorrect. The Crown owes millions of gold dragons to Lannisters and those dragons must have gone somewhere, to someone, and that someone is Littlefinger.

Where I failed was in realizing three things:
1) Tyrion was the target of assassination, not Joffrey. But Joffrey was such a vicious and petty a-hole that he stole and ate Tyrion's poisoned cream-topped pie
2) It was Littlefinger who was helping Ned reveal Robert's bastards while Varys was surprisingly unhelpful for a master of whisperers

3) Littlefinger's story about how he got Ollenna on board the assassination train makes no sense. In fact, the more likely story was that he did let minstrels sing about how Joffrey was great and praised him to high heavens, but rumors spread among Tyrell servants on their own later, once they were in the city. Thus talk with Sansa and later Loras joining the King's Guard. That was their whole plot,"Marry Sansa to Wyllas. Loras will join the King's guard and be there in white cloak and protect Margaery.". That first part was revealed to Lannisters by Littlefinger, btw. And Tywin's reaction was extremely predictable. Here's the thing and Littlefinger's assumptions: Tywin would never give Casterly Rock to Tyrion. Tywin's hopes and dreams are that the king would make Jaime leave King's Guard and replace him with someone else, thus leaving Jaime free to return to Casterly Rock and marry someone.
Thus the whole "Barristan, you're fired because of old age and because you didn't protect the king. The Hound, you're now in King's Guard despite not being a knight" plot. They are breaking two sacred rules there and potentially leaving an opening for Jaime leaving despite white cloaks serving for life: you're dismissed because not only did you not protect the king, you killed the previous king! Tywin wants Tyrion as far away from himself as possible and is greedy and ambitious (the whole "Tywin protector of the West, Jaime the lord protector of the East" plot from AGOT); Tyrion is the obvious choice there. He is unmarried and unlikely to marry on the account of being a dwarf, the North is far away (and that marriage makes Tyrion lord protector of the North, btw) so he doesn't need to visit him that often, the Lannisters control two out of Seven kingdoms (West and North), which, if you notice, is also Littlefinger's plan! Controling East by marrying Lisa and North by using Sansa. The northmen won't like Tyrion but Tywin doesn't care. And, for Littlefinger it might be easy to assasinate Tyrion once he is on the road to take over. He also knows Tyrion, that he's having a mistress and knows that he probably won't force himself on Sansa because, above all, Tyrion wants to be loved and all moves regarding Sansa Tyrion did while in court was to protect her.
What Littlefinger couldn't predict was a) Tyrion being proclaimed the master of coin before Joffrey's wedding, thus needing to be assassinated quicker and b) Tywin not trying to get rid of Tyrion as fast as possible and sending him North with huge army after the Red Wedding. c) Tywin dying. You'll also notice that it was Littlefinger who provided Fake-Arya to Bolton. Tywin's plan would have been: Once it is all cleaned up, send Tyrion with Lannister army to the North, reveal Arya as fake and have Bolton killed. Littlefinger's original plan was probably to piggyback on that, by Aunt Lysa providing some troops to her niece Sansa to kill Bolton the usurper who killed her brother and his liege lord Rob. It is tied to Littlefinger's previous plot, trying to kill Tyrion in battle.

 

[Young stormlord]

Speaking of Littlefinger, thing I find mildly amusing is that he is one guy on King's small council that both Stannis and Tywin Lannister agree should be killed. With Tywin's "If that small council of his can't be brought to heel." "Axe, pikes, walls." comment and Stannis saying that he wants to scour the court clean of that den of vipers, also naming Littlefinger, Varys and Pycelle.

Also, it is deeply ironic the way Robert and Stannis run their courts. Robert, the wild brother, employs a former customs officer as his master of Coin and two very honorable people from old Great Houses as his hands. Stannis, the lawful brother, employs a literal pirate as his customs officer and master of coin and a (former) smuggler as his Hand.