Where is everyone?

[The Judge]

Teresa mentioned in the Challenge Discussion thread that AW seemed a little quiet now, and in his Off Topic thread in the Lounge TEiN specifically raised the question of the dearth of new work in Critiques, wondering whether the new rules introduced in May have created a problem.

So, I thought I'd do a bit of investigation. I'm reporting back here, in case fellow AWs who might be interested don't frequent the Lounge (and having done all this blasted work, I intend to get post count credits for it...)

I don’t understand any of the statistical analysis stuff, and as Ursa has already pointed out in TEiN's thread, 7 months’ figures taken in isolation don’t amount to a hill of beans, but for what it’s worth I have trawled though all the threads on Critiques from 1 January 2010 just to see how things appear to be stacking up. What we really need is for someone to do the same for AW as a whole, since I agree with Teresa that we seem quieter there too at the moment (hence the comparatively low numbers entering the Short Story Challenge) as well as looking at figures for the last 3 or 4 years to see if there is a trend in the Autumn. And you’re a braver man – or woman – than I am, Gunga Din, if you want to undertake that exercise.

Anyhow, of the 241 non-redirected threads listed in Critiques since 1 January, 7 were pre-existing threads which haven’t had further pieces added for critique this year, 8 were threads closed for formatting issues where the piece was subsequently re-posted correctly in the same month, and 1 didn’t have a piece for critiquing. Those 16 were omitted, which leaves 225 threads, which includes 3 pre-existing threads where at least one new piece was added. (NB This does not equate to pieces submitted for critique since several threads contain more than one piece.)

If I was computer literate I’d be able to reproduce a proper table here. Since I’m not, this might look a bit confusing. Fingers crossed.

OK. That was a complete flop (repeatedly...). You will have to use your imaginations -- 6 beautiful columns, exquisitely spaced:

Month A; B; [C; D; E]

Jan: 29; 20 [9; 6; 3]​

Feb: 33; 24 [9; 8; 7]
​

Mar: 33; 22 [11; 8; 5]
​

Apr: 27; 23 [4;4;4]
​

May: 27; 25 [2; 2; 2]
​

Jun: 18; 11 [7; 7; 5]
​

July: 27; 23 [4; 2; 1]
​

Aug: 22; 17 [5;5;3]
​

Sep: 9; 8 [1;1;1]
​

Total: 225; 173 [52;43;31]
​

A = threads started (or new piece added to pre 2010 thread)

B = threads where, as at Sept 2010, the poster has at least 25 credited posts – a very, very rough guide to “measured contribution” status at the time of posting**

C = threads where, as at Sept 2010, the poster had fewer than 25 credited posts (D and E are fewer than 20 and 10 posts respectively, since I thought that might be of interest)

** while we can’t know the post count when the pieces were posted, it seems to me that if a person was sufficiently interested in Chrons to post at least 25 times including on his/her own critiquing thread, it isn’t unreasonable to suppose he/she would post a similar amount before submitting a piece under the new rules.


As far as I can judge, it confirms what we all knew, namely that September has been very quiet, but I don’t know it supports the idea that the new rules are the cause, since although June was poor it wasn’t for lack of newbies trying to get pieces critiqued, and they are the people mostly affected by the change in the rules. Moreover, July was fine and August also held its own.

So. Where is everyone this month?

 

[Vertigo]

Well I have been desperately busy the last couple of weeks. Having promised myself I was going to contribute more to the critque threads I just haven't had the time since my first couple of critiques. Sorry . I am trying to put together a new revised piece of my own and will try and get that up soon.

 

[The Judge]

I wasn't casting blame on anyone, Vertigo, let alone you, so no apologies necessary! It really is just wondering if people are away on holiday, or settling into new jobs or stuff.

 

[Vertigo]

I know TJ, I do feel guilty though. I post a couple of critques, then bang in my own attempt and get some great feedback and then disappear!

I do agree though, it does seem quiet to me. I only joined in June so I don't have much experience to go on but it does seem be quieter across the whole forum just recently.

 

[Karn Maeshalanadae]

Well, Vert, during the school year it's generally quieter than the summer, but, it does seem quieter than usual at this time. I think we've discouraged, unfortunately, most newcomers with Critiques by imposing the forum contribution rule. Then again, that was to weed out the leeches, and for the most part, it seems to have done its job....

 

[Precise Calibre]

I've held a stigma that most pieces I post will only get a maximum of 5 responses, which might account for my insecurity when it comes to posting new things for work.

I do, however, try to put as much input as possible into the critiques section when the need arises.

 

[Teresa Edgerton]

I understand how you feel, PC. I think we all go through periods where we feel that no one is paying attention to us, like we are the pariahs of the boards.

But I see that the last thing you posted for critique was in March, which, at a glance, looks like it was a month when many things were posted for critiques, but few pieces attracted very many comments. Sometimes it's just a matter of unfortunate timing. One or two pieces will attract a lot of discussion and other pieces will hardly get any attention.

 

[The Judge]

So now's the time to get posting, PC, while the critiquers are sitting here slavering and with nothing to get their teeth into.

Actually, you're making me feel guilty as I don't think I've ever critiqued your work, have I? I promise to do better (that's if you want me to...!)

 

[Precise Calibre]

I welcome comments from everyone on my work. I have my own thoughts on inadequacy, but even so I can be quite blind to my own flaws and a fresh set of eyes is always welcome!

I have my own self-made reputation from every forum I go to. I call myself the "thread-killer". Most of the time, when I post in a topic, unless it has a lot of its own momentum, the topic pretty much dies.

Also, another reason I haven't posted anything in the last few months is because the things I've been working on I intend on attempting to get them published, so I don't really want to post any part of them.

I am, however, working on a little piece for fun that I might toss up.

 

[Xelah]

I was... doing intense research. Yeah, research, that's it. "Research for what?" you say. Ummm... The hypothetical, but entirely possible event that any of my characters spend any quality time with the Department of Justice.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Image is unrelated. I swear. Really.

 

[Culhwch]

I think if you looked at the figures going back any number of years there are going to be peaks and troughs, and I'd surprised if they all were around the same time. It's just the natural flow of things. I certainly don't think this has been caused by the new rules and regs, though even if t was, I still prefer lower numbers than numbers bolstered by, as Karn puts it, leeches.

 

[The Judge]

Welcome back, Xelah. Hope the... er... research... went well. (From what I've read of your characters I'd have thought it more than likely they'd know all about the workings of the DoJ!)

I agree, Cul. It's odd the fall off has been so dramatic this month, but finges crossed things get back to normal soon.

 

[Karn Maeshalanadae]

I'm sure things will, TJ, but I also think that as time goes on and life goes on, there are those who either can't or won't take the time to visit too often. Many of the ones who were highly or decently active back when I first joined seemed to have pretty much dropped off the radar. (HighScienceFan, Mithridelle, Lady of Winterfell to name a few.) And it seems that newcomers who absorb themselves into the site are starting to drop in numbers.

 

[Oxman]

PC, I've held the "Thread Killer" title longer than you! The last time I posted anything for a critique it was in three segments with diminishing replies, the last receiving none! Imagine how disappointing that was!

I have never been the most prolific of posters, being more of a sporadic kind of guy, but I've not been around much due to both an increasing schedule and some health issues. I've found the time to "lurk" on here a few times though to see what's going on. In the past I've also tried to do a reasonable bit of critiquing on pieces that I think I can genuinely offer some constructive input on. Here's hoping I can get on here more often in the near future and try to make more of an active effort to contribute.

 

[Sleepless]

Well im no statistician, but from January to March roughly half of all new crtis were from people with less than 25, and after April that number dropped to 10-20%. My rough guess would be that new posters who didnt meet the criteria didnt post. Those that did post didnt really bother reading the rules or even the rest of the board (where they would have seen some locked and wondered why).

Weve discussed this elsewhere so no need to repeat, but I wonder if accidentally theres some kind of interesting breakdown - presuming that the reduction is because of the rules (a leap in itself) could you say that that percentage that didnt post (roughly two thirds of the -25 bunch) actually read previous crits, possibly contributed to a degree, would have been community members of the desirable kind in the long run (possibly)? Lots of ifs, buts and maybes.

Anyway, as you say theres just too small a pool to make any sort of definite assertion, who knows it might pick up next month. Personally I dont intend to post a piece for critting anytime soon, even once im well past the 25 as we all know thats only half the story. I would be mortified if i increased my post count only for it to be locked due to a 'lack of contribution 'so i prefer just to post as and when with no view to posting a crit and little reason to crit anything other than encouragement in that section. Thats not a bad thing by the way

 

[The Judge]

Well im no statistician, but from January to March roughly half of all new crtis were from people with less than 25

Er... no. Undoubtedly my fault for confusing the issue with the plethora of columns, but so as to make it clear:

Jan: 29 new posts of which 20 (69%) were from people with 25 posts or more; of the remaining 9 (31%), 6 had fewer than 20 posts and of those, 3 had fewer than 10. (ie 3 had fewer than 10; 3 had 10-19; 3 had 20-24)

Feb: 33 new posts of which 24 (73%) had 25+ posts; of the remaining 9 (27%), 8 had fewer than 20, and of those, 7 had fewer than 10 (ie 7 under 10; 1 10-19; 1 20-24).

Mar: 33 new posts of which 22 (67%) had 25+ posts; of the remaining 11 (33%) 8 had fewer than 20, and of those, 5 had fewer than 10 (ie 5 under 10; 3 10-19; 3 20-24).

So the total for the 3 months is 95 new posts, of which 66 (69%) had 25+ posts. So the under 25s amount to 31%.


Thereafter, yes, fewer newbies, both in absolute terms and in percentages, viz:

April: 4 of 27 (15%)
May: 2 of 27 (7%)
Jun: 7 of 18 (39%)
July: 4 of 27 (15%)
Aug: 5 of 22 (23%)
Sept: 1 of 9 (11%)
​

But the new rules didn't come in until 18 May, so April's figures are wholly unaffected. Moreover, no thread was locked in Critiques for contribution issues in May itself, so while some newcomers may have read the guidelines and decided not to post, I can't believe the rules alone accounted for the low figure -- only 2 in the first nearly 3 weeks is strange anyway.

I wonder if accidentally theres some kind of interesting breakdown - presuming that the reduction is because of the rules (a leap in itself) could you say that that percentage that didnt post (roughly two thirds of the -25 bunch) actually read previous crits, possibly contributed to a degree, would have been community members of the desirable kind in the long run (possibly)?

I'm not sure I follow this, so I may be misunderstanding, but my thought is that if someone doesn't feel able to join in with us in advance of posting something for critique, it's unlikely he would stay and join in with us after posting, were he now able to do so.

Personally I dont intend to post a piece for critting anytime soon, even once im well past the 25 as we all know thats only half the story. I would be mortified if i increased my post count only for it to be locked due to a 'lack of contribution 'so i prefer just to post as and when with no view to posting a crit and little reason to crit anything other than encouragement in that section.

You've shown yourself to be interested in the forum, and you are contributing (though no 75 word story again this month, why not?!), so take it from me, you won't be locked for contribution issues if you do decide to post soon**, but that attitude is the right one to my mind -- post when you have something to say, not in order to inflate post count in order to put up a piece.

** If anyone else reading this is worried about the prospect of being locked, send me or one of the other mods a PM and ask in advance.



Oxman, I hope you're feeling a little better. There is sometimes a danger in posting too soon after an earlier piece, especially when it's a continuation of one chapter, and February was a busy month. Perhaps try again now, while things are quiet, and we've roped in a few more critiquers anyway.

 

[Xelah]

@The Judge
Yeah, the... uh... research went well. Very educational.

 

[Sleepless]

Judge, As I said im no statistician! Looking at it now, i can barely count! Thanks for clearing that up. With your clarification in mind I would say its too difficult to gauge from the numbers alone the effect of the new rules. Ideally you would match whether new people were joining and contributing and then posting stories - I would say the real measure would be the number of new stories from people around the 25 post mark since the intro of the rules and how that has changed. Then again you'd want to measure new sign-ups or active participation by newbies over a period or take into account the summer holidays... argh my head hurts.

Regarding the second bit, forget it, its all as moot as my understanding of the stats the first time round! Just trying to extrapolate the number of people posting who didnt read the rules or other posts and were locked versus those who did and didnt post (the remainder). Now my head really hurts!

Re: the 75 word story, I must admit that was a spur of the moment thing which I will no doubt do again, it was fun but it gave me an idea im developing so havent really taken part this month. Will do on the spur again though!

This is a great piece of work TJ, and depite my misgivings about the reasoning behind 'the rules' I am entirely reassured by the fact that the implementation of them is in your safe and fair hands. I look forward to your conclusions on this although I think you might have to wait a while to get more concrete data as to their effect.

<s>

 

[Nik]

Well, I've been bouncing between the exigencies of RealLife(TM), and chugging away at my current tale when I can.

I've dropped in to look at the critiques forum on most days, but a week may go by without me feeling I can contribute anything. Adding a modest 'me, too' to a young thread isn't much...