The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

[svalbard]

Assuming that ADwD was published not too long after GRRM had completed it (so let's give it a completion date of early January 2011), and assuming that he's been writing TWoW, on and off, since then, he's taken 12 years to write three-quarters of it, so that gives a completion date of early 2027 (assuming that his estimate of a quarter to go takes account of him pulling it all together so that it's coherent in terms of plot, timing and character development).

There is thus a chance that, should both he and I survive until then, I might be reading it in July of that year.


There are a lot of assumptions in there, so I'm not going to hold my breath. Oh, and 2027+16 = 2043, when I'll be 86 and George will be 94, so I've given up on ever seeing A Dream of Spring (let alone being in a fit state to read it, whenever it's published and whoever has completed it).

If we do get ADOS and I think your sums are correct I will be in a similar boat to yourself. The only way to read it at that stage will be through Audible. However that has its own risks as due our age we will be constantly nodding off in front of a fire(if they are allowed) as we listen to the story. Best bet will probably to have our grandchildren give us a run down of the story.

PS.

I have an inkling, which I hope is correct, that George is holding some cards close to his chest and he may have written both books.

 

[Boaz]

Will I still need it? Will I still read it when I'm sixty-four?

 

[paranoid marvin]

The television series that continued after the events of the books must surely have had some input from Martin, or at least had his approval.

I can only wonder if the (deservingly) negative criticism attributed to these tv seasons has had some bearing on the delay in the release of the rest of the books. Maybe because the storylines were going to match those in the books and have had to be reworked, maybe because he realises he can't please everyone however he finishes it, and doesn't want the same negative criticism the tv show received.

It wouldn't surprise me if the books, and the ending to saga, were finished, but with a conclusion that he isn't altogether happy with. But in some respects, maybe the series is better left 'as is' and we, seemingly like Martin himself, can move on to other things.

 

[althea]

I moved on some time ago, after a brief period of grief and willing the book to appear.
I'm so over it now.
As I enjoyed the books, I didn't watch the TV series.

 

[paranoid marvin]

I moved on some time ago, after a brief period of grief and willing the book to appear.
I'm so over it now.
As I enjoyed the books, I didn't watch the TV series.

You'd probably have enjoyed the first four or five seasons; the last 2 or 3 were awful.

 

[Boaz]

@paranoid marvin Years ago, GRRM's publisher released his original cover letter explaining his first dozen chapters that he submitted and how the story would progress. Central to the story were Dany's murder of Drogo, Tyrion's murder of Joffrey and defection to the Starks, Jaime's claiming of the Iron Throne, and a love triangle of Tyrion, Jon and Arya. Robert, Eddard, Robb, and Catelyn had all been marked for early deaths. Even more importantly, the story was to be a trilogy and span ten to mayhaps fifteen years.

I think that this straying from the original concept shows us that even though GRRM discussed books five, six and seven with Benioff and Weiss in 2008-2009, that he continually reevaluates his story and refuses to be held down by ideas until they are submitted to his publisher.

Further, I think that while GRRM refuses to read fan theories on the internet, he did become inticately involved with Benioff and Weiss' theories on ASOIAF. I wonder how much HBO used GRRM's plan and how much they used their own ideas and theories from the net. Martin has decided to reject some of these ideas but has not yet finished his own.

Mayhaps we don't need an end. In that case, I'll never be disappointed in Jaime's and Jorah's failures to find redemption. And I won't hate the fac that neither Melisandre nor Littlefinger will get theirs.

 

[Judderman]

I could probably live without the ending. And ponder on it. But I do feel a need to read Winds after all these years. At least to see a few knots unraveled or tightening further. And no doubt a few interesting character endings along the way.

 

[Judderman]

Mayhaps we don't need an end. In that case, I'll never be disappointed in Jaime's and Jorah's failures to find redemption. And I won't hate the fac that neither Melisandre nor Littlefinger will get theirs.

I don't know if I could stomach Littlefinger saving the day

 

[Boaz]

Spoiler Alert! for The Lord of the Rings and the Chronicles of Narnia.

We've seen Viserys, Robert, Tywin, Janos, Joffrey, Gregor, Rorge, Biter, Craster, Shae, Eddard, Renly, Robb, Rodrik, Catelyn, Lysa, Jeor, Mycah, Ygritte, Cressen, Mirri Mazz Duur, and many others (good, bad, innocent, experienced, boring, intriguing, players and pawns) all have died violent or undeserved deaths. GRRM does not discriminate... nor does he have a sense of Christian justice as Tolkien and Lewis. In The Lord of the Rings, all of the villains are defeated and the heroes earn their rewards in this life and the Undying Lands. In the Chronicles of Narnia, even though Narnia is conquered and the Narnians all slain or scattered, they find true rewards in the presence of Aslan during the after life.

The valonqar prophecy lets us know that Cersei will get hers. Melisandre is so close to the fire that she's bound to get burned. Euron seems to be commited to victory or death. But just as some good and innocent characters don't deserve their fates, GRRM will not give all villains their due justice. The Faith has a repeated phrase, "As we sin, so do we suffer." We know that GRRM doesn't believe this proverb. I think Varys and Littlefinger are the best candidates to avoid punishment.... probably Lyn Corbray, Walder Frey, Sybell Westerling, and Roose Bolton. I can't imagine that GRRM could ever face his fans nor ever sell another TV show if Ramsay goes unpunished.

 

[Judderman]

I find Varys presented more as a character towards good than evil. A sneaky one that wants to stay alive though. I would be surprised if he isn't still going well into A Dream of Spring.

 

[Boaz]

@Judderman Varys claims to serve the realm. Yet he murdered Pycelle and Kevan, two men who were providing stability for the realm. He also served through the murders of three consecutive Hands... Jon Arryn, Eddar Stark, and Tywin Lannister... three of the most capable men in the realm. He did not murder them, but he sure did not save them. Varys promotes chaos if it serves his vision of Westeros and he'll use any means to achieve it.

Martin almost refuses to write develop black and white characters. He grew up on Aragorn, Frodo, Gandalf, and Sam Gamgee... yet he'd never put them into his story. Brienne, Robb, Dany, Jon, Eddard, Gilly, and Aemon are all presented as good characters. Stannis, Catelyn, Arya, Tyrion, Penny, and Thoros are all presented as sympathetic people doing questionable things. Sam Tarly is as close to a definitively good character as we have.

On the other hand, his villains tend to do things to make me understand their motivations... Jaime, Cersei, Alliser, Melisandre, Randyll Tarly, and Balon Greyjoy. But there is one character who is black without any white. There is not one redeeming quality for Ramsay Bolton. He is evil.

 

[svalbard]

@Judderman Varys claims to serve the realm. Yet he murdered Pycelle and Kevan, two men who were providing stability for the realm. He also served through the murders of three consecutive Hands... Jon Arryn, Eddar Stark, and Tywin Lannister... three of the most capable men in the realm. He did not murder them, but he sure did not save them. Varys promotes chaos if it serves his vision of Westeros and he'll use any means to achieve it.

Martin almost refuses to write develop black and white characters. He grew up on Aragorn, Frodo, Gandalf, and Sam Gamgee... yet he'd never put them into his story. Brienne, Robb, Dany, Jon, Eddard, Gilly, and Aemon are all presented as good characters. Stannis, Catelyn, Arya, Tyrion, Penny, and Thoros are all presented as sympathetic people doing questionable things. Sam Tarly is as close to a definitively good character as we have.

On the other hand, his villains tend to do things to make me understand their motivations... Jaime, Cersei, Alliser, Melisandre, Randyll Tarly, and Balon Greyjoy. But there is one character who is black without any white. There is not one redeeming quality for Ramsay Bolton. He is evil.

I would argue that Jaime is not a villain. A man who has done terrible things but one who has had to take stock of his life. A torn protagonist. Same with Randyll to a certain extent. A crap father to Sam, but a capable leader for his men.

 

[Boaz]

@svalbard I imagine a Dickon Tarly (Sam's little brother) POV would state what a solid father Randyll is.

And I understand that Jaime foiled Aerys' scheme to blow up KL, that he saved Brienne, that he freed Tyrion, that he refused to collaborate with Tywin, that he kept his oaths to Catelyn, and that he saved Pia. But I can't forget his long term incest and the attempted murder of a little boy to keep it a secret. I am extremely hopeful for a completion of his redemption arc.

 

[svalbard]

It is one of the great things about Martin's characters. They do things that you can imagine people doing. They make mistakes, get stuff correct, show sympathy at times etc. All human traits that can exist with 'good' and 'bad' people.

 

[Judderman]

@svalbard But I can't forget his long term incest

Controversial, but maybe he would call it true love. Have to look back to the parents for causes of that.

 

[Ursa major]

But I can't forget his long term incest and the attempted murder of a little boy to keep it a secret.

No one is going to forget it, or defend it, but it was a logical action: if the secret got out, it wouldn't only have been Jaime and Cersei who'd be killed; it would be their children.

And let's not forget the attempt on Dany's life (who was much younger in the books than she appeared in the TV show), whose only offence, back then, was that she'd survived Robert's successful usurping of her father (with Eddard's help).

 

[Boaz]

Obviously GRRM does not hold a monotheistic view as I do. An uncreated creator could sort out Jaime's actions and make sense of his life and afterlife. I think this is a way that GRRM sets expectations (even if his readers are not monotheists, they grew up on morality tales and hollywood endings) and then subverts them to my great surprise. After twenty years, I have learned to keep expectations low.

 

[Koopa]

Jaime is a villain that wants to be a hero and who tries to do right thing whenever stuff do not directly involve his family. His sexual desires, family and the choices he made for both them ultimately make him a not so good person. The good don't wash away the bad. Unless you control the narrative...

No doubt in the Lannister book of truths Bran ends up a demonpossesed brat with nefarious intent who was discovered spying upon the good queen and her brother. And this, after managing to climb a tall tower no normal child could ever be capable of climbing. The boy was a freak, a monster in disguise.

This talk of a three-eyed crow and all the other lunacy further proveing Bran his sinister nature. Everyone knows the Starks are a bunch of evil wargs to begin with. And Bran was/is something even far worse. Plotting vile plots. Thankfully Jaime the ever loyal knight was there to protect the queen from whatever that demonbrat was intending.

 

[Judderman]

The demonbrat. Son of the polygamous Ned Stark.

 

[Judderman]

One of the questions George got in 2011 shortly after publishing Dance with Dragons? Back in optimistic days. Does show his preference though

"After you finish writing A Dream of Spring would you start another multi-volume fantasy series?"

"Well, never say never again, but I don't think I would ever do anything quite this big again. I might do something like a trilogy, or something like a book that had a sequel. Actually, I think after finishing A Dream of Spring I might write some standalone novels, I have a couple of ideas for those. And a lot of short stories. It's been a long time, I have a lot of short story ideas I'd really like to do. I really began my career writing short stories."