Oberyn and Tywin - spoilers!

[The Imp]

I found this REALLY interesting theory I had never heard of before, and it makes perfect sense. Brilliance. I wish I had thought of it. It's on this blog

http://boiledleather.com/post/24196234491/tywin-lannister-dead-man-********

and the pertinent quotes are here

Tywin Lannister: Dead Man ********?


“Where will I find my lord father?”
“In the solar with Lord Tyrell and Prince Oberyn.”
Mace Tyrell and the Red Viper breaking bread together? Strange and stranger.
—Jaime and Ser Meryn Trant, upon Jaime’s return to King’s Landing


“Widow’s blood, this one is called, for the color. A cruel potion. It shuts down a man’s bladder and bowels, until he drowns in his own poisons.”
—Grand Maester Pycelle, during Tyrion’s trial


“To be sure, I have much to thank your sister for. If not for her accusation at the feast, it might well be you judging me instead of me judging you.” The prince’s eyes were dark with amusement. “Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all?”
[…]
“Your father,” said Prince Oberyn, “may not live forever.”
Something about the way he said it made the hairs on the back of Tyrion’s neck bristle. Suddenly he was mindful of Elia again, and all that Oberyn had said as they crossed the field of ashes. He wants the head that spoke the words, not just the hand that swung the sword. “It is not wise to speak such treasons in the Red Keep, my prince. The little birds are listening.”
“Let them. Is it treason to say a man is mortal? Valar morghulis was how they said it in Valyria of old. All men must die. And the Doom came and proved it true.”
—Prince Oberyn Martell and Tyrion, in Tyrion’s cell


He found his father where he knew he’d find him, seated in the dimness of the privy tower, bedrobe hiked up around his hips.
[…]
For once, his father did what Tyrion asked him. The proof was the sudden stench, as his bowels loosened in the moment of death. Well, he was in the right place for it, Tyrion thought. But the stink that filled the privy gave ample evidence that the oft-repeated jape about his father was just another lie.
Lord Tywin Lannister did not, in the end, **** gold.
—from Tyrion’s assassination of Tywin during his escape from the black cells


The King’s Hand was rotting visibly. His face had taken on a greenish tinge, and his eyes were deeply sunken, two black pits. Fissures had opened in his cheeks, and a foul white fluid was seeping through the joints of his splendid gold-and-crimson armor to pool beneath his body.
[…]
Red-eyed and pale, Cersei climbed the steps to kneel above their father, drawing Tommen down beside her. The boy recoiled at the sight, but his mother seized his wrist before he could pull away.“Pray,” she whispered, and Tommen tried. But he was only eight and Lord Tywin was a horror. One desperate breath of air, then the king began to sob.“Stop that!” Cersei said. Tommen turned his head and doubled over, retching. His crown fell off and rolled across the marble floor. His mother pulled back in disgust, and all at once the king was running for the doors, as fast as his eight-year-old legs could carry him.
“Ser Osmund, relieve me,” Jaime said sharply, as Kettleblack turned to chase the crown. He handed the man the golden sword and went after his king. In the Hall of Lamps he caught him, beneath the eyes of two dozen startled septas. “I’m sorry,” Tommen wept. “I will do better on the morrow. Mother says a king must show the way, but the smell made me sick.”
This will not do. Too many eager ears and watching eyes.“Best we go outside, Your Grace.” Jaime led the boy out to where the air was as fresh and clean as King’s Landing ever got. Twoscore gold cloaks had been posted around the plaza to guard the horses and the litters. He took the king off to the side, well away from everyone, and sat him down upon the marble steps. “I wasn’t scared,” the boy insisted. “The smell made me sick. Didn’t it make you sick? How could you bear it, Uncle, ser?”
—Jaime, Cersei, and Tommen, during Tywin’s funeral.

 

[BetaWolf]

Wow, that's a wicked theory. Technically, the crossbow bolt did the old man in, but he was already going septic from the poison (kidney and liver failure I suppose would be the effect).

 

[Boaz]

Good find, Imp. It makes sense... even Oberyn delivering the poison himself... except for the timing. I assume that Pycelle and the Maesters would know Tywin was poisoned and under the circumstances Oberyn would be the prime suspect. Oberyn needed to have someone else poison Tywin after Oberyn was safely back in Dorne. I say this because I think Oberyn wanted vengeance and I think he wanted to live to see it.

 

[BetaWolf]

Pycelle was Cercei's creature, but could he have been complicit?

 

[Boaz]

Pycelle was in Cersei's pocket because Tywin was her father. Pycelle served Tywin's interests ever since he convinced Aerys to open the gates.

 

[Brian G Turner]

I've changed the thread name to avoid spoilers in the title.

 

[juleska]

Brilliant theory....makes total sense. The Viper wasn't the kind to leave loose ends.

 

[The Imp]

I've changed the thread name to avoid spoilers in the title.

Yes, good call Brian. I was so exciting about finding that theory that I wasn't thinking about the thread title.

 

[The Imp]

Good find, Imp. It makes sense... even Oberyn delivering the poison himself... except for the timing. I assume that Pycelle and the Maesters would know Tywin was poisoned and under the circumstances Oberyn would be the prime suspect. Oberyn needed to have someone else poison Tywin after Oberyn was safely back in Dorne. I say this because I think Oberyn wanted vengeance and I think he wanted to live to see it.

The name Varys comes to mind as someone who would have the ability to pull it off and the motive (as we find out later in the Kevan chapter) to WANT to do it.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

Amazing Theory. I wonder if we will ever find out if it is true or it will just be one of those things that always has a shadow of doubt over it so we can continue discussing it after the series is finnished.

It seems really likely to me, and I think Varys would be a likely suspect to have assisted the Red Viper.

GOOD FIND IMP

 

[Lost Beyond Belief]

Wow, that is pure brilliance...great job, friend

 

[joshrackley]

I know this is a bit of a necro, but some things I noticed today fit in with the Varys collusion part. While Varys is leading Tyrion through the passages in the Red Keep during his escape, he "protests" that Tyrion shouldn't go to Tywin's quarters but he makes sure to tell him exactly how to get there. Seems fishy that someone who is so good at controlling information would accidentally give away information.

 

[Boaz]

I've been thinking about this theory for a couple of days.

1. We don't know how quickly the poison acts.
2. We don't know how long a person will live under the poison's effects.
3. We don't know how the poison was administered.
4. We don't know when the poison was administered.

There have been a number of poisonings in KL during the story. The most prominent is Joffrey's, but there are others beginning with Jon Arryn's.

Everyone assumed Jon got sick and died, yet Eddard harbored a doubt due to his hatred of Lannisters. Varys finally told Eddard that Hugh, Jon's squire poisoned him. In ACOK, Pycelle confessed to Tyrion that he finally gave Jon a lethal dose of poppy to ensure Jon's silence. So a lethal and slow acting poison was superceded by a direct lethal dose of another poison. And yet at the end of ASOS iirc, Lysa confessed to poisoning Jon. So this means Lysa and Hugh, both Baelish's henchmen, seperately or together poisoned Jon for Baelish's gain, yet Pycelle finished Jon to protect Cersei.

While technically not in King's Landing, Lancel gave Robert triple fortified wine. Cersei supplied this to Lancel hoping for an accident. I only not this to keep in mind the access that a trusted confidant has to an imporant person.

The next poisoning was Tyrion slipping a laxative to Cersei. This confined her to her privy for a day, or mayhaps two, in order to allow Tyrion to send away her guards. Cersei swiftly recovered. This led to Tyrion joining Cersei for a dinner and at one point suspecting he'd been poisoned only to learn Cersei had captured Alayaya. Knowing that Cersei had not learned of Shae's existence, Tyrion went on to promise a terrible retribution upon Cersei.

Cersei was shaken by this threat and when Joffrey died, she immediately interpreted it as Tyrion's vengeance. I've gone into this elsewhere, but my best guess is that Baelish and Olenna Tyrell conspired to poison Joffrey at his wedding banquet, but before they could do it Joffrey ate poisoned pie (courtesy of Oberyn and meant for Tyrion). Again there were two schemes in play... with the second being the lethal one.

After this we get Tyrion's trial with Tywin's, Cersei's, Oberyn's, and presumably Mace's, Olenna's, and Vary's schemes to affect the outcome.

The next poisoning was that of Gregor Clegane. Oberyn deliberately used a slow acting poison to make sure Clegane suffered before dying. Yet Oberyn himself was killed by Clegane and judged the loser because of his immediate death. And yet most of us believe Tywin was poisoned by Oberyn... so either Oberyn (or a henchman) poisoned Tywin before the duel or someone else did afterwards. Also, note that there were two schemes to kill the Mountain... a poison was administered by the spear, but the spear was intended to be the main implement.

The final poisoning that I want to mention is the one that this thread is all about.... Tywin's. A scheme was in place for Tywin to die from constipation, but Tyrion shot him dead.

If this poison acs over a fortnight or more, then Oberyn had ample opportunity to poison Tywin. It seems likely that this is exactly what happened. Oberyn came for vengeance. Vengeance for his sister, for his niece, and for his nephew. He wanted the perpetrators dead. He wanted the person who gave the orders dead. He wanted their children dead. In other words, he wanted Ser Gregor for Elia's rape, for Elia's muder, and for Aegon's death.... he wanted Ser Amory Lorch for Rhaenys' death... he wanted Tywin for giving the command... and he wanted Tywin's children in retaliation for Elia's children.

He poisoned the Mountain. He ran the Mountain through with a spear.

He also attempted to poison Tyrion at Joffrey's wedding. I think his plan was to kill Tywin's children as Tywin watched. I don't know his plots to kill Cersei and Jaime, but I assume he was fairly adept at acting upon the spur of the moment as Clegane found out.

I'm now into conjecture and will proceed with unsupported thoughts. This poison is slow acting and maybe repeated doses keep the work going until the g.i. tract is overwhelmed. Coud Oberyn repeatedly access Tywin's cup for days? Mayhaps, mayhaps not. If we assume this same poison killed Jon Arryn, then both his squire and his wife were well placed to continue to administer poison. If a squire or a wife, then why not a lover or a maid? Well, Shae was both in her time in the Red Keep. Could Oberyn have bought Shae? How long had Shae been Tywin's lover? Once? Since the beginning of the trial? It seems that Tywin's bowels were totally stopped because they released when Tyrionn shot him. This makes me think the poison was only recently administered.

What if Shae had been poisoning Tywin? Then Tyrion's killing of Shae could be called justice and not murder... and his killing of Tywin could be named a mercy and not kinslaying.

 

[Boaz]

Read Oberyn's duel with Gregor today. Why was the spear poisoned?

The Viper planned on killing the Mountain. Before the fight, Ellaria exclaimed, "You're going to fight that?" "I'm going to kill that", was the reply.

Tyene tells Doran, in ADWD, that she knows the poison her father used. It was thickened to guarantee, but delay death so that the victim remained in pain for a long time.

Tyrion was there to witness Oberyn gearing up for battle. Tyrion saw who handed Oberyn the poisoned spear when all was ready. Daemon Sand... who, in TWOW, will be accompanying Arianne on her mission to meet Aegon.

So why put a slow acting poison on a spear intended to use to kill someone today? The only answer I have is that it was a backup plan.

Oberyn went to KL for vengeance. He wanted Tywin, Gregor, and Amory Lorch... and I think he wanted to make Tywin suffer by watching his own offspring slain. This is what Elia edured, so it's what Oberyn wanted Tywin to endure. But Oberyn was killed by Gregor, so what about his vengeance? Did he have other back up plans?

Lorch was dead. Joffrey was dead. Gregor was doomed. Myrcella was a captive at the Water Gardens. What about Tywin, Tyrion, Cersei, and Tommen? What were the plans to kill them?

When the Viper died, I think his plans for Cersei and Tommen fell through because his agents lost their nerve without him. The plan to kill Tyrion was abandoned because Tyrion was to be executed. I think Daemon was involved in these plans. But I think his most loyal agent, Shae (Sarella, one of the Sandsnakes) stayed on target and poisoned Tywin.