Did Petyr convince Joff to kill? (Spoilers)

[<nox>]

**spoiler if you haven't watched or read the first book/TV series...and why are you on this forum if you haven't???**

So this has probably been beaten to death but I'm always in for nudging a dead horse. And as is the norm, when I try to use the search engine, I didn't find this being discussed.
I'm re-reading ACoK and found a conversation between Varys and Tyrion to be interesting: First they are talking about where power really comes from and muse on how Slynt and Payne carry out Joffrey's command as if they had expected it and then "...Who truly killed Eddard Stark, do you think? Joffrey, who gave the command? Ser Ilyn Payne, who swung the sword...or another?"
So my first thought is Petyr or at the least Varys might be trying to get Tyrion to take the leap to start thinking on Petyr.
So we have Petyr orchestrating Jon Arryn's death to bring Ned to KL, he convinced Cat & Ned that Tyrion was the contractor for Bran's assassin which would have them take Tyrion and start a familial feud, he led Ned to the truth of the royal children's parentage knowing that Ned would be honor bound to air the truth and open the way for being accused of treason, then convinced Joff to behead Ned (I still choke about this!!), and then killed Joff to ensure the only other witness who could talk (Payne ain't speaking and Slynt is heading to the wall) would go to his grave with the secrets (like he did the fool knight who helped Sansa).
So, what was the gain? Was it to make way for him to gain Cat? Seems kinda elaborate for all that. I mean with that kinda resource, why not just have someone sneak in and slay Ned when he is sleeping at Winterfell?

 

[Boaz]

Convincing Joffrey to execute someone is like convincing Robert Baratheon to drink, fight, and sow his royal oats... or convincing Jon to complain... or convincing Sam to have a fourth dessert... or convincing Dany to rush to judgement... or convincing unCat to murder Freys and Lannisters... it's gonna happen anyway.

Middlefinger, in my opinion, wants to create chaos so he can be the one to restore order. The Iron Throne is his one and only goal. I don't necessarily think that he will sit on it himself, he'll be content to be the real power behind the throne. An ideal situation would be one in which the ruling family has a number of young heirs and they all depend upon him.

When the Mad King sought to break the noble families, who upset his plans? Robert Baratheon, Eddard Stark, and Jon Arryn. When Balon Greyjoy rose in rebellion, who upset his plans? Robert and Eddard defeated Balon while Jon maintained order.

Middlefinger killed Arryn... He waited for Cersei to kill Robert or for Robert to get himself killed.... (It ended up being a combination of the two.) And then he arranged for Stark to undercut his own support and expose himself... He played the Starks and Lannisters into a civil war. He got himself named Lord Paramount of the Trident, e.g. he replaced Hoster Tully as the Lord of the Riverlands... one of the Seven Kingdoms. He schemed to assassinate Joffrey and he stole Sansa. He married Lysa Arryn, murdered her, and has become Lord Protector of the Vale... another of the Seven Kingdoms. Even if (or rather when) little Robert dies, Baelish still holds Harry the Heir... so he'll maintain his hold on the Vale. And did I mention he holds Sansa Stark.... as far as anyone other than Theon and a few northmen knows, she's the heir to Winterfell.... another of the Seven Kingdoms. And don't forget that he is the one who planted Jeyne Poole as Arya Stark... he knows the truth and can expose her at his leisure.

If you're counting, that's two of the sevem directly under his control and title and a third just waiting to fall in line. Looking at a map of Westeros, those three kingdoms just happen to be the three most northerly of the seven... and two of them are considered impregnable.

For me, the quandary is whether Middlefinger and the Spider are in cahoots. If they are, then Baelish and Varys will deliver a good chunk of the realm to the Targaryen ruler... Aegon or Daenerys. This plays into my theory that both of them are actually descended from the Targaryens. Mayhaps they are Blackfyres or some other *******.... Except for the names Shae and Bael the Bard, every other AE combination can be connected to a Targ family name. Mayhaps Baelish means "son of Bael" or mayhaps it means "son of Baelor". And Varys might be a nickname for Visaerys...

If Baelish and Varys are not working together, then Baelish will wheel and deal to come out on the winning side. He'll sell out Tommen as quick as he can if the Targs hold the upper hand.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

That is certainly an intersting Idea. Boaz, as always, gave a very detailed account of the extent or Petyr's power and influence. Another thing that had me thinking was a Line the Middlefinger said to Sansa, as explanation for why he killed Joffrey.

"Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you."

Who are the Foes he is talking about here? It can't be the Lannisters, because Killing Lannisters isn't going to confuse them. Now, killing someone who seems to be your Ally, that WOULD be confusing. I think what Petyr wants, besides power (obviously) is to see an end to the Arryns, the Starks and the Tullys. The 3 houses who disgraced and humiliated him. In the line above, he is admitting to Sansa that he is, in actuality, her enemy. By killing Joffrey, he is making it seem like he is her friend, because who hurt her more than Joffrey? But in the long run, killing joffrey served no purpose (the Lannisters still rule and Joff had a younger brother, so not much changed) and even seemed to work against him, after all, it was Joffrey (through Cersei and Tywin) who raised him to be the lord Paramount of the Riverlands, and helped him become the Protector of the Vale by marrying Lysa. So why kill Joffrey? to confuse Sansa so she is not sure who he is or what he wants, so she won't know what he is going to do next which, I would imagine, would involve her being dead and him, somehow, being in controll of the north.

He is so cocky that he actually told Sansa who he was, and she wasn't able to figure it out (yet).

 

[Boaz]

Did Baelish convince Joffrey to execute Eddard? I'm not dismissing it out of hand like I did eight years ago.

The other day, I asked myself if Joffrey was just a monumentally entitled jackass or an actual sociopath?

Joffrey did not have any real connection to a father figure. Robert was a bad dad. Jaime left him alone. Tywin is cold to everyone. He was left to Cersei to raise. Cersei's arrogance, selfishness, and spitefulness are legendary. She passed her sense of entitlement and superiority on to Joffrey. The main male influence in his life was the Hound. Sandor is uncommunicative, aloof, cruel, and full of hate.

Joffrey killed a cat and cut out a fetus, sent an assassin for Bran, tried to chop off Arya's head, and ordered Janos to sieze Barristan when BFS was sacked. Angry and cruel or completely detached from all empathy?

Near the beginning of ASOS, Tywin again took up the Handship and started giving orders to everyone. Joffrey told Tywin that a bold king does as he pleases, not as he is bid. After sending Joffrey to bed with some dreamwine, Tywin questioned Cersei about who taught that to Joffrey. After fumbling for an answer while Tywin clipped her wings, Cersei blurted out that Robert said it many times..... I confess that I always thought that Cersei herself said it to Joffrey and lamely tried to blame Robert. But mayhaps these were the types of mantras that Middlefinger and mayhaps his cronies (servants, knights, and ladies of the court) would speak around Joffrey.

Did Joffrey just choose the Valyrian steel dagger with the dragonbone hilt that just happened to formerly belong to Baelish? Or did Middlefinger tell Joffrey about the incredible weapon he'd gifted to Robert? A weapon that Joffrey could use... just as soon as he was old enough. I can imagine Baelish telling this to Joffrey after hearing about the cat.... just information about the incredible sharpness of Valyrian steel. Come to think of it, which blade do you suppose Joffrey used to cut open the cat?

On the Fingers, when Baelish explained the events of Joffrey's wedding feast to Sansa, he told her that like a horse led to water you couldn't make Joffrey notice it... you had to splash around in it... you had to actually connect all the dots for him. This now seems to me like Middlefinger's ploy with the jousting dwarves was not the only time he had to connect the dots for Joffrey.

At Eddard's confession, there were a number of people upon the steps with him. Joffrey, the High Septon, Cersei, Pycelle, Varys, Baelish, Ilyn Payne, Janos Slynt, Sansa, two Gold Cloaks, the Hound and four other Kingsguard (Mandon, Boros, Meryn, Arys, and Preston are the candidates). When Joffrey calls for Eddard's head Cersei, the High Septon, Pycelle, and Varys all attempt to intercede with the king; Sansa screams; as expected, none of the Kingsguard react; Janos, Ilyn, and the Gold Cloaks execute Eddard; but Baelish never moves either way.

I did not like this theory eight years ago, but I kind of like it now. Middlefinger might very well have led Joffrey to blood... and had to splash around in it (murdering Eddard's men in the throne room) before Joffrey realized he could do it too.

Edit: And mayhaps this is just one sociopath manipulating another.

 

[Judderman]

You can trace a lot of serial killers and sociopaths ideas back to mistreatment by parents or other parent figures. Makes sense!