DWS: The Real Price of Traditional Publishing...

I think there's food for thought here, but also a lot of leaps of faith.

Eg sell 35 copies to equal a trad book:

Many, many authors never sell 35 copies. Also, after 100 copes (based on his working out of 35 -123 quid) you'd be lucky to have broken even after all your costs. At 200 you might be seeing some profit.

Also, this idea your book is lost in a ledger - not anymore. Like sp, trad publishing now has that title on Amazon for ever. Bookstores may not, but Amazon will. So you still have the long tail and the back stories.

Lastly, trad publishing opens doors, especially for a debut. I had a magazine I approached for a review a couple of nights ago. Their first question was, was I trad or sp? Only by being trad would they agree a review and the option to pop an article through to them. Bookstores will rarely take sp, even sympathetic local ones.

So, yes, if you do well, if you hit the right Amazon algorithms (and that seems as much down to luck as anything else) you could do better sp. but, in another world, for another book, you could do better trad. To state one route is a surer way to fame and riches is, I think, a little narrow in focus (and I say this about to sp next month, so carry no agenda. Happy to report back which pans out best for me - although my start up costs are low for Inish.)
 
To state one route is a surer way to fame and riches is, I think, a little narrow in focus (and I say this about to sp next month, so carry no agenda. Happy to report back which pans out best for me - although my start up costs are low for Inish.)

Jo, we've disagreed more than a bit in the past, so it'll come as no shock at all that we're about to again. If you honestly think that's what DWS was saying I'd suggest you try reading the piece again without assuming you know what his ultimate point is. Because that wasn't it. At all.

In the opening lines of the piece he states he's gone back and forth between all-trad and all-SP, and is now comfortably astride both models. (Yes, that's meant to be something of a double entendre to hopefully lighten the mood.)

He's saying that SP is better all-around for the reasons he laid out. And I see no point in repeating them. But there was nothing about easier or guaranteed fortune and glory, only that to earn the same as a mediocre advance from a publisher you'd have to sell something like 35 books a year with the added benefit that you retain the copyright and therefore control over that book's publication.

Oh, and best of luck with the launch.
 
I was being a little tongue in cheek. ;) but he still glosses over a lot of the costs of sp and makes it seem easy to reach an amount that doesn't reflect reality - the published author will not have had to pay for editing, cover design. As a basic cost I would put that at about £500 - £300 for editing, £200 for cover - and that's very conservative. Which means you're really having to hit 200 copies - based on his cover price - realistically, as a debut, you might have to drop that price to shift volume - to see a profit of any kind. And most sp books don't sell 200 copies. So, yes, I think he was painting it as a more simplistic picture than it was.

(But hey, never the twain, and all that there... ;) :))

And thank you! Musing on prices etc here.
 
Dean Wesley Smith said:
So using 35 years and a $5,000 advance (decent these days), traditional publishing is buying your book from you for the lofty sum of $142.00 per year. -

He's making the same mistake I keep seeing in many of these pro-self publishing articles - that your advance is the sum value of your book.

By fair equivalence, the same book self-published on Amazon is worth $0/£0, because there is no advance.

The important figure is total sales, and how the advance relates to that.

Yet the maths in the piece continue to refer to that original figure, and then argues how easy it is to overcome that figure through 35 sales per year.

The presumption is that a self-published author can realistically sell 35 copies this year, let alone keep that sales level consistent - no sales graph I've ever seen for books would support that.

He also conveniently assumes all SP income is profit, and omits costs - even though he mentions hiring for various aspects (presumably editing and art).

There's no mention at all of potential instability in the self-publishing industry - there are SP'ed members here who have talked about sales bottming out.

And, perhaps worst of all, through a combination of bad maths, presumptions, and a bitter attitude, Dean Wesley Smith is keeping alive that illusion of how easy it is to make money through self-publishing - after all, anyone can do it, and the presentation of figures insists that you too, can get rich self-publishing.
 
that your advance is the sum value of your book.
He's assuming it's not a great seller, royalties never exceed advance.
So it might be true for many books?

Yes, it's one sided and he doesn't mention that the advance only trad. pub. income only applies if it's basically unsuccessful. Nor as you say the costs of doing SP properly (could be $1000 to $2000 per book). So interesting, thought provoking and flawed.

I think a hybrid approach. SP for stuff that's niche, Trad Publisher for work you are convinced will sell well.
 
Self-publishing seems to work for a certain kind of writer. Namely, highly-prolific (2-3 books a year) authors writing series for a very narrow genre audience.
 
He's making the same mistake I keep seeing in many of these pro-self publishing articles - that your advance is the sum value of your book.

Most traditionally published books do not earn out their advance, that is, they don't earn more than the advance. But that is largely due to the way traditional publishing works with all sales most books can ever make being in the first two-year window, any remaining books being pulped, the rights siting with the publisher, and the book never to see the light of day again. With digital SP, the rights stay with the author and the legendary long-tail can actually work in the author's favor with a much lower sales-per-year barrier for entry.

By fair equivalence, the same book self-published on Amazon is worth $0/£0, because there is no advance.

No. He's assuming that the trad published book will only ever earn the advance because of the nature of trad publishing. That is, most books don't earn out their advance and after the initial thrust of 'marketing' (ie books on shelves), most trad publishers simply forget that a book exists and let it alone.

The important figure is total sales, and how the advance relates to that.

An important figure, yes. But not the only important figure. Selling your rights for the life of copyright is very important, as is the length of that life of copyright.

Yet the maths in the piece continue to refer to that original figure, and then argues how easy it is to overcome that figure through 35 sales per year.

The presumption is that a self-published author can realistically sell 35 copies this year, let alone keep that sales level consistent - no sales graph I've ever seen for books would support that.

You need to see more sales graphs then. Books and authors build steam over time. Releasing new books boosts the sales of old books by the same author. When someone finds an author they like, they tend to pick up some older books by them, if the reader really likes that author they may even pick up copies of all that author's older works. So as long as you're not publishing one book and sitting on it, staring at the sales chart, with no additional releases or marketing, you're going to see sales.

That's the big difference between trad and SP. Trad publishers might... might market your work, but more often than not they leave the marketing to books on shelves, which largely ends up being the book with the spine out waiting for someone to be provoked into looking at the cover and maybe reading the blurb, etc. There's no real marketing for most trad books. With SP you can market the hell out of your own book. Who's going to fight harder for your book, you or some cubicle worker with dozens of other books to market by names far bigger than yours with established history?

He also conveniently assumes all SP income is profit, and omits costs - even though he mentions hiring for various aspects (presumably editing and art).

This is an odd sentence, in the first half you're claiming he's doing something that is explicitly contradicted by the second half. He can only assume all SP income is profits if he omits costs involved, yet you're also noting that he mentions the costs involved. He can't both omit the costs and mention the costs. Since he explicitly mentions the costs, I have to assume the problem is elsewhere.

There's no mention at all of potential instability in the self-publishing industry - there are SP'ed members here who have talked about sales bottoming out.

He doesn't mention the instability in traditional publishing either. So for me that's a clear wash.

And, perhaps worst of all, through a combination of bad maths, presumptions, and a bitter attitude, Dean Wesley Smith is keeping alive that illusion of how easy it is to make money through self-publishing - after all, anyone can do it, and the presentation of figures insists that you too, can get rich self-publishing.

I'm not sure we read the same article. There's zero mention of getting rich or getting rich quick. He's literally talking about earning $3000 over the course of 35 years in the piece I linked above. I'm not sure how you define 'rich' here, but that's certainly not it as far as I'm concerned. Just like trad publishing, if you're consistent, talented, persistent, and have a decent-sized amount of luck you can make money self-publishing. Note that's 'make money' and not 'get rich'. Difference being that with SP you're in control of the rights and you make the decisions for yourself, further, there's much less overhead and since you're earning on average 70% of the sale price from every book sold instead of 10%, it's far easier to make the same amount of money in SP as you would in trad.
 
But that is largely due to the way traditional publishing works with all sales most books can ever make being in the first two-year window, any remaining books being pulped, the rights siting with the publisher, and the book never to see the light of day again.

Is that really the case today, with ebooks representing such a large part of the market? Ebooks have just as much longevity for traditional publishers as self-publishers.

That's the big difference between trad and SP. Trad publishers might... might market your work, but more often than not they leave the marketing to books on shelves, which largely ends up being the book with the spine out waiting for someone to be provoked into looking at the cover and maybe reading the blurb, etc. There's no real marketing for most trad books. With SP you can market the hell out of your own book. Who's going to fight harder for your book, you or some cubicle worker with dozens of other books to market by names far bigger than yours with established history?

What's to stop an author with a trad publisher from marketing the hell out of his own book?
 
So, here's some numbers...

Let's assume the $3000 advance against royalties DWS mentioned. Now, let's ignore the costs a trad publisher must bear to acquire, edit, design, print, and market the book. To be fair, we'll also ignore the initial costs laid out by the SP author, for now. Let's also ignore the taxes paid on unsold stock, but this bit is important. Now, the typical royalties contract gives the author 10% of the sale price, note that's not 10% of retail (ie full price), the author gets 10% of the actual sale price so places like Amazon who do deep discounts really cut into an author's print earnings. Considering their discounts are anywhere from 30-40% as a standard, the author has to make nearly twice as many sales to get the same amount in his pocket. This is important, but for the sake of easy maths, we'll ignore it for this post.

Also, most sales a book will ever earn are within the first two-year window after initial publication (it's honestly shorter, but let's ignore that too). This is because there are dozens or hundreds of new titles every week and bookstores don't want to keep books that don't sell cluttering up their shelves. In airport bookstores the shelf life of a book is as little as a week, in bigger stores this is longer, say six-months or so, depending on the store. But let's ignore that reality also for the sake of easy maths. Books that don't sell enough to earn out the advance (ie make both the author and publisher enough money to stay in print) are remaindered (sold for pennies by the pound to recoup costs) or pulped. And the author will now have a bad track record and likely not get another trad publishing deal without a pen name.

So, trad publishing: $3000 advance against royalties. $6.99 mass market paperback price. 10% royalties per sale, or $0.69 royalties for the author per sale. That comes to just under 4350 sales to earn out the advance (actually more due to deep discounts). All sales in the first two-years (actually shorter due to market forces). If there's not enough sales, the books are destroyed and thus no more sales. Rights remain with publisher till public domain.

Now, self-publishing: No advance. Average of $2.99 digital ebook price. 70% royalties per sale, or $2.00 royalties for the author per sale. To earn that same $3000 advance from the trad route, that's 1500 sales. So the same amount of money with nearly 1/3 the sales. There is no time limit for sales. If there's not enough sales, the author can do more marketing, bundle the book, put it on sale, etc. Rights remain with the author and heirs till public domain.

Self-publishing is not a get rich or a get rich quick scheme. It's a means for authors to earn money for themselves at the margins of traditional publishing. The threshold for a profitable book to a trad publisher are really quite high. It's expensive as hell to run a publishing company and print books. There's a huge gap between what constitutes a living to most people and what is profitable to a trad publisher. It's in that gap that most self-publishers work and live. Let's look at our trad vs SP example again. For the trad publisher, that book has to make 4350 sales in a tiny window to be profitable; for the SP, that book has to earn more than the cost of editing and a cover to be profitable. Unless the SP decides to go with ridiculously priced covers and editors, that's not going to be a huge expense.

Further, and let's be honest here for a moment, most people aren't going to land a trad contract. Their writing may be good, but not good enough to make the publisher enough money for whatever reasons. Say too niche, too cliched, follows a dead trend, or any of a myriad other reasons. Self-publishing is for those writers. They can still try to earn money on their works that trad publishers won't look at twice. And the key phrase here is 'enough money'. Self-published books can still sell. They may not make the writer rich by any means, but $100 every month or every few months is a far sight more than the nothing they're earning from traditional publishing contracts they don't have. And likely won't ever get.
 
Is that really the case today, with ebooks representing such a large part of the market? Ebooks have just as much longevity for traditional publishers as self-publishers.

Yes. But at generally much lower rates than from SP and the rights remain with the publisher till public domain. According to AuthorsGuild the stellar royalties rate for ebook from trad publishers is a whopping 25%.

What's to stop an author with a trad publisher from marketing the hell out of his own book?

Only a P&L (profit and loss statement). Bookbub is the go-to ebook marketing place. They do email blasts. Their prices are high, but they have the biggest reach of anyone at present. For a promo with Bookbub for a SF book that goes for $2.99 costs $1,075. Their sales are 315 to 3,930 for a non-free SF promo. According to Bookbub the average sales for a SF promo are 1690. Would you rather bear that cost and get 70% of retail back as royalties as an SP author or the 25% of retail from trad?

Let's run those numbers...

Min sales @ trad: 315 sales @ $2.99 retail @ 25% royalties = $235.50 earnings.
Max sales @ trad: 3930 sales @ $2.99 retail @ 25% royalties = $2937.70 earnings.
Trad sales to break even on ad: 1439. Slightly less than average.

Min sales @ SP: 315 sales @ $2.99 retail @ 70% royalties = $630 earnings.
Max sales @ SP: 3930 sales @ $2.99 retail @ 70% royalties = $7860 earnings.
SP sales to break even on ad: 538. Less than 1/3 of the average.
 
Now, let's ignore the costs a trad publisher must bear to acquire, edit, design, print, and market the book. To be fair, we'll also ignore the initial costs laid out by the SP author, for now.

There's the error - the trad pubbed author doesn't pay out those costs. However, if a SP'ed author is serious about publishing, they will need to pay costs for an editor, cover, and potentially marketing, too. All those costs will mean the SP starts at a deficient - if they are serious about selling.

Let's run those numbers...

Min sales @ trad: 315 sales @ $2.99 retail @ 25% royalties = $235.50 earnings.
Max sales @ trad: 3930 sales @ $2.99 retail @ 25% royalties = $2937.70 earnings.
Trad sales to break even on ad: 1439. Slightly less than average.

Min sales @ SP: 315 sales @ $2.99 retail @ 70% royalties = $630 earnings.
Max sales @ SP: 3930 sales @ $2.99 retail @ 70% royalties = $7860 earnings.
SP sales to break even on ad: 538. Less than 1/3 of the average.

There are a few assumptions here - as above, there are assumed no costs involved in SP.

The other assumption here is that TP and SP books will be priced equally, which I don't think is normally the case. I'm not sure how US pricing averages, but from what I've said I would expect ebooks on Amazon.com to average no less than $5.99.

Additionally, aren't SP books commonly priced at lower price points, ie, $0.99 or $1.99?

Run those figures again:

Min sales @ trad: 315 sales @ $5.99 retail @ 25% royalties = $471.71 earnings.
Max sales @ trad: 3930 sales @ $5.99 retail @ 25% royalties = $5885.17 earnings.

Min sales @ SP: 315 sales @ $1.99 retail @ 70% royalties = $316.393 earnings - MINUS any editing, cover, and marketing costs
Max sales @ SP: 3930 sales @ $1.99 retail @ 70% royalties = $5474.49 earnings - MINUS any editing, cover, and marketing costs

From the maths, unless the SP'er is selling at TP prices, then TP sales will result in higher income, despite the lower royalty %. As above, SP costs have not yet been subtracted. As above as well, the natural expectation would be that the average TP book will generate sales in excess of the average SP book.

I'm not trying to argue the point on any principle - I haver to seriously consider SP as a possibility in future. I'm trying to balance a business argument, because I don't think either the assumptions, nor figures, have added up.
 
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Of people using subscription services, not people buying books.

Yep, apologies - I edited that out of my post after I read it again. :)

EDIT: And my apologies to FB, as I edited my post again - seemed a better idea than flooding the thread with multiple posts by me!
 
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There's the error - the trad pubbed author doesn't pay out those costs. However, if a SP'ed author is serious about publishing, they will need to pay costs for an editor, cover, and potentially marketing, too. All those costs will mean the SP starts at a deficient - if they are serious about selling.

If we're not going to even temporarily ignore the variable costs involved with SP, then we shouldn't ignore the gatekeepers or the career-ruining potential of insufficient sales. To say nothing of the cost of selling off your rights till the work reaches public domain. Speaking as a former acquisitions editor, something like 99% of what crossed my desk was unpublishable and unreadable dreck. Only 1% of submissions were worth the paper they were printed on and could be read as something cogent in something resembling a shared language. Maybe 1% of that were actually publishable. Some readable books are published, some unreadable books are too. But a lot of good, readable fiction is simply passed up by the big publishers. Good stories that can make money... just not enough money to satisfy a spreadsheet hound looking to justify the thousands of up-front costs involved in trad publishing. But the neat thing is, people can make a living on what the big publishers turn up their noses at.

So it's really a question of the variable up-front costs of editing and cover design for self-publishing versus a writer's honest chances of even being read by an agent or picked up by a publisher, then the chances of that writer selling enough to keep their work in print, and earn enough to warrant a contract for a second book. And remember, most books don't earn out their advance, so even after the 1% of the 1% you still have to fight the odds and be one of the lucky ones who's work manages to sell enough to keep you employed as a writer. If you don't sell enough, you're either starting again with a pen name... only in a worse position as you've got a back track record rather than a neutral one, or you're simply done with trad publishing.

There are a few assumptions here - as above, there are assumed no costs involved in SP.

Not at all. Just not addressing them up-front as those costs are entirely variable. You can get editing, layout, cover design, and marketing for nothing at all, or on up to absurdly ridiculous prices if you higher the absolute pinnacle of editors, designers, and marketing gurus. So rather than use a long string of 'it depends', I simply set them aside. Just as I set aside all the costs and variables of traditional publishing to make things easier to deal with. Like agents, non-standard contracts, taxes, direct sales vs book club sales, mail order (which still exists), failure to report royalties to authors, 'funny maths' that magically always seem to favor the publishers, or discounted Amazon sales. Granted, those costs are mostly borne by the publisher rather than the author, but a goodly chunk of those factors also directly affect the author.

The other assumption here is that TP and SP books will be priced equally, which I don't think is normally the case. I'm not sure how US pricing averages, but from what I've said I would expect ebooks on Amazon.com to average no less than $5.99.

Using Bookbub they would likely be roughly the same price. A trick of Bookbub is that they only deal with discounted books, at least 50% off regular cover price. So that $5.99 ebook would be $2.99 for a Bookbub promo. So the trad published ebook would simply be reduced in price, but what most SP authors do is kick the price up to $5.99-$6.99 before they try to get a Bookbub ad then slash the price back down to $2.99. Or they just go with the free book with the ad to boost their ranking, then once the blast is done they put it back up to their regular price and hope that the sales carry over... which they generally don't. But some authors get readers that way, and those readers will spill over and pick up other books by that author at regular prices... it's kind of a mess really.

Additionally, aren't SP books commonly priced at lower price points, ie, $0.99 or $1.99?

No. The $1.99 price point is a black hole of sales. Basically no one prices their stuff there. Otherwise the prices really vary. Some are priced as high as 'regular' books so whatever price Amazon will let them price it at, including hundred of dollars per book. But the average price is around $2.99 for most 'new' SP authors and over time, if they're building an audience, they slowly increase their prices to be around the trad books. So it's more likely now that the 'average' SP ebook costs closer to $3.99. Even the SP crowd has the bestsellers, the mid-listers, and the also rans.

Run those figures again:

And for the reasons I mention, those numbers are wrong. But it does look neat when the deck is stacked that far.

As above, SP costs have not yet been subtracted. As above as well, the natural expectation would be that the average TP book will generate sales in excess of the average SP book.

Again, those costs are largely unknown. But also generally a one-time-only up-front cost that's involved with SP. Unless you want to pay to edit the book every time you run an ad, or get a new cover every time. So, yeah, the up-front costs need to be accounted for, of course, but they're not taken out of every promo you do. Once they're covered, everything after that is profit. A good chunk of SP authors swap edits for free, something I think people on these very boards do. Others pay for freelance editors to do specific things, like a simple copyedit or proofreading rather than hardcore developmental edits or the like. Further, if you have access to the internet you can find dozens of sites that have royalty free stock images that can be used for commercial purposes. Twenty minutes of surfing and an hour of fiddling with an image in your Photoshop knock-off of choice and you can have a cover for nothing but your time. There's also sites where cover designers have pre-made dozens of stock covers you can simply buy. For $20-80 or more you can have a professionally done cover inside of ten minutes.

So yeah, rather than all that and explaining the nothing to infinity that is the setup cost of SP'ing a book, I just set it aside. My bad.

I'm not trying to argue the point on any principle - I have to seriously consider SP as a possibility in future. I'm trying to balance a business argument, because I don't think either the assumptions, nor figures, have added up.

Honestly, it reads like you assume self-publishing is a get rich quick scheme and people are trying to lie to you, trick you, or otherwise fool you into trying something. It doesn't read like you're 'balancing' anything, rather that you already assume it's bullsh** and you're simply arguing against it.

To be clear, self-publishing isn't that much easier than traditional publishing. It involves far more work, honestly. But it's work you can reasonably do that doesn't entirely depend on others' approval. Whereas with trad publishing you can't even get started without someone else granting you permission to enter the industry. But again, we're not talking about an author with a multi-million dollar trad offer in hand wrestling with which way to take their career. We're talking about a large group of writers who cannot get into trad publishing contracts, or have been pushed out because they're not profitable enough for the multi-national corporations that own the big publishers.

There's a massive gap between making nothing and what's profitable enough for the big publishers. If you think holding out for a project that the big pubs finally accept, more power to you. Personally, I'd rather go it alone now and make what I can as I keep working on my craft... rather than you know, getting absolutely nothing in return for my work... possibly ever.
 
The decision is personal, the maths are not.

In your opinion. I think there are so many variables he has picked and chose from, it's actually impossible to ever get a baseline of the maths. It's a mess of cover price and projections with no evidential base and proffered norms in an industry where there are no norms. And that's the key problem - both models are viable, both will do better/worse based on the product, and timing, and the market, and luck (;)) and hard work (;);) :)) and it's almost impossible to present a straight comparison.
 

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