Could Germany have ever won WWII?

[WaylanderToo]

In view of something written on a different thread vis-a-vis Hitler and jet engines
I have quite a simple question really (though a complex answer one suspects as there would be soooooo many variables)...

I would have thought that had they not been brutal in extremis to the people they conquered (especially in the USSR) they may well have seen a far more favourable outcome in the East. I suspect that had Russia been knocked out then that could have caused the even US some issues in terms of natural resources.

No strategic/long range bombers (thanks to Goering and Hitler in the main IIRC) didn't help matters.

If Germany hadn't declared war on the US would the US have entered the war given their isolationism?

What if the UK had remained neutral?

What if Russia had invaded Poland before they'd signed the accord with Germany... would we have had the UK, France and Germany all getting ready to invade Russia?


come on let's have at it and see where we can get to

 

[Brian G Turner]

Germany couldn't win so long as Hitler insisted on controlling all military decisions. His experience of war was too much shaped by WWI, so he failed to grasp the changing needs of modern warfare, not least the importance of air superiority. His attack on Russia, forcing Germany to fight a war on two fronts, was a classic military mistake.

He apparently also believed that a brave heart would overcome any difficulties, so any problems reported from the front he dismissed as cowardice.

Towards the end of the war he was reportedly giving manoeuvring orders for divisions that didn't exist, but it was easier to allow Hitler to continue to live in a fantasy world than try to confront him with hard facts.

If Hitler had delegated more, been less prone to toadyism and corruption, been more consistent and less likely to keep changing his mind, then Germany might have been truly dangerous. But in the end Hitler had become just another deluded dictator, with no real idea of reality or how to deal with it.

 

[Venusian Broon]

If Hitler had delegated more, been less prone to toadyism and corruption, been more consistent and less likely to keep changing his mind, then Germany might have been truly dangerous.

Or would they have?

From the time Hitler became chancellor, 1933, to about the end of 1942 everything he decided to do more or less worked and brought 'success' to the German military that they probably would never have dreamt of. In terms of 'global grand strategy' he overrode the concerns of his general staff, party and generals and continually was right. A German army, on it's own, may not even have re-occupied the Rhineland in 1936, never mind go about merging Austria and especially the invasion of Czechoslovakia. (Well documented that the army were terrified that the British and French would go to war over that and they felt they were just not ready)

Hitler always liked the 'radical solution' and in doing so not only did he confound his critics at home, he also was one step ahead of other world powers. At least at the start. I don't really think an ordinary German leader would have got anywhere near this mentality (and opportunities for luck) and perhaps there may never have been a second world war because everyone would have been much more cautious.

Hitler's actions should be viewed as gambles of course - at first he was betting (correctly) that both Western European powers didn't have the stomach for a fight and would leave him alone. Poland was his first venture that didn't quite pay off as it started the war in Europe. But he 'rescued' the situation with a Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact that stunned everyone else into inactivity.

This string of success and good luck also however gave rise to his status as a 'demi-god' and fanaticism that probably added at least a year of more suffering at the end.

 

[HareBrain]

I think they might have done, if they'd put aside the invasion of Russia for another year, and focused on invading the UK, which they might have achieved if they'd kept to their aim of destroying the RAF on the ground rather than bombing cities. With the UK invaded, Germany could then have taken the Middle Eastern oilfields from North Africa, meaning they wouldn't have to worry about securing them when invading Russia. The US would have been left with no invasion platform for Europe (but Germany probably could have avoided any problem there by not declaring war on the US in the first place).

Even with all that, Russia would still have been a very risky prospect, but with the UK gone and the US not involved in Europe, aid convoys wouldn't have been sent.

Anyway, that's the advice I would give Hitler if I had a time machine and was evil.

 

[Caledfwlch]

Just read a fascinating alt history by the author CJ Samson who normally writes fiction set in the 16th Century.

In Dominion, its 1953, 13 years after the Prime Minister, Halifax "came to terms" with Hitler. Despite no UK, and no US Involvement in the War, Germany is still all these years later fighting in Russia. Stalin died, or rather iirc was brutally executed by the Nazis, oh dear, what a shame Thus people far more sensible, and not prone to ludicrous things like exterminating everyone daring to wear red on a tuesday. They moved Russia's vital industry to Siberia, and even in 1953 those factories etc are still out of range of the Luftwaffe.

Churchill bless him, despite his age is leading the "British Resistance" from hiding - Britain whilst remaining Independent, and holding on to the British Empire, is becoming increasingly Fascist in government - the main reason Churchy is now in hiding is the election the year before was fixed, ensuring the election and Prime Ministership of Lord Beaverbrook, iirc a Canadian press mogul and Fascist. Now, almost like something out of V for Vendetta, the notorious "V" for Victory is graffitied all over Britain, and on resistance produced leaflets.

Along with the 1950's Movie, It Happened Here, it puts to bed the ludicrous folk myth we Britons have, that had we come under the influence of the Nazis, either peacefully, or by invasion, We weren't like "johnny Foreigner" over on the continent and would never have collaborated with the regime...

I suspect the BBC are going to cause a lot of upset either late this year, or 2017 when they transmit the adaption of Len Deighton's alternate history novel SSGB they are currently filming! It's a fantastic book even if parts don't make sense - Sea Lion or a variation of it goes ahead, and includes landing a massive armoured division in Scotland, to charge south.

I don't know much about Armoured Warfare, but it strikes me as an insane idea, the same as an armoured invasion via Wales would - mountainous and hilly terrain is a nightmare for armoured warfare, since it favours the enemy, if they are highly mobile, and can set up gun emplacements on the surround heights....

I imagine it was the same principle that Owain Glyndwr used so well during the Welsh War of Independence - England's greatest was its Heavy Cavalry, some of, if not the best in Europe, and totally useless in such terrain, they require nice open fields of battle. I think it's one of the things that make Azincourt stand out as such a shocking Victory for the English and Welsh Troops - massively outnumbered by the French anyway, something daft like half to 3 quarters of the French nobility had turned up, so the French Horse at the field was a vast and horrific looking host. But some clever bugger got the Welsh and English Bowmen to dig little hidden holes in the ground, and iirc put down stakes.... and voila - it must be one of the few defeats of a significant Cavalry force on ground that they could not have better chosen had they tried.

 

[Ray McCarthy]

No they couldn't have won, cos Russia.
It's as well for the French the USA came in, or they'd be speaking Russian today.

 

[Caledfwlch]

No they couldn't have won, cos Russia.
It's as well for the French the USA came in, or they'd be speaking Russian today.

One intriguing "What If" that alt history writers seem to ignore is Himmler's offer to the Allies, right at the end. When, knowing the Red Army were likely to be as brutal to Germany as it was to the Soviet Empire, and not knowing whether the outcome would be all of Germany under Stalin's Jackboots - he made an offer, I assume in all seriousness to the Allies, to make an unconditional Surrender as such, then immediately have the Allies & the Wehrmacht turn on the Soviets.

I wonder what would have happened had such a deal been made. It must have been a little tempting, after all, once the Soviets were smashed it would be child's play to turn around and try and execute the likes of Himmler and surviving members of the Nazi Party etc - it may very well have been a workable idea with 1 major difference - lock up Himmler and the rest to await trial, and go to battle with the Wehrmacht having ensured it's leadership was Nazi supporter free. I could well imagine in such a situation that the Wehrmacht would have even cleaned house for the Allies, without even needing a trial, just knock off all the Nazis themselves. I don't know how credible they are, but there are claims, that towards the end, in the frontlines against the Soviets, the SS began refusing to go into Battle first, something the big brave bullying elite were supposed to do, because, with regular Wehrmacht Units behind them, quite a few SS Men would drop dead before getting into range of the Soviets, they appeared to be the "accidental" victims of "Friendly Fire"

I think that was the SS in the sense of black uniformed bastards, not the Waffen SS who iirc were mostly just elite soldiers, not brutal thugs like the deaths head crowd - my mates grandfather was Waffen SS (got in fight with some of Hitler's Youth when iirc 17 and Judge offered him a choice of either Military Service or Prison Camp) and he must have been "politically clean" to the British after the war, as he was given permission to move to Wales, his home being what became East Germany, thus had he gone home, he would likely have been liquidated or worked to death in a Gulag by the NKVD or whomever. My mate has always wondered if his Dadcu was actually part of Operation Gladio, that plan to train "stay behind" troops in NATO Nations, to act as a Guerilla/Resistance Force in the event of Soviet invasion, and Britain is supposed, I don't know if true or not to have brought in elite German troops recruited in the POW camps, and considered non Nazis as part of the preparation - Basically a version of the "Auxiliary Units" that Britain had during WW2, composed of people such as Farmers and Miners too valuable in their roles to be given military service (like my Dadcu, a Blacksmith & Farrier who had to fight hard to be allowed to sign up, which he won eventually and became an early Royal Marines Commando) I think the secrecy behind the AU's was only dropped in the last few years, and a couple of chaps still living where they did during the war showed the Bunker they had built, which was still there, and would have contained food, weapons, ammo, radios and other supplies.

Auxiliary Units - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Auxiliary Units are not to be confused with the Auxiliary's who brought shame on Britain by some truly despicable actions during the Irish War of Independence. And Dadcu is Welsh for Grandfather - "Bill Jerry" as he was known and loved refused to teach or allow to be taught his children and grandchildren the German Language. And I have seem the odd Middle Class person be all at the naming of "Bill Jerry" claiming it was racist, if me or my mate & his brother mentioned it, but the old boy was very proud of it - the moment he became Bill Jerry is when local villagers finally accepted him, as up to that point they had for obvious reasons been very off with him, and since there were multiple Bill's around, Wilhelm became Bill Jerry.

It was one of those weird moments, history coming alive though when he showed us his Tattoos which he hated as he was forced to get them - the main one was a "100% Pure Aryan" thing he was made to have, to show he was suitable for "breeding" with. So romantic those Nazis.

 

[J Riff]

Well, based on what I see around here... maybe they did, and kept it secret, and are just quietly finishing it off. epends on your description of 'nazi' I guess.

 

[Caledfwlch]

Well, based on what I see around here... maybe they did, and kept it secret, and are just quietly finishing it off. epends on your description of 'nazi' I guess.

Not sure I understand you correctly?

 

[J Riff]

Well they can't all just disappear, can they? They just submerged, came up with a new act and are still there, being Nazi as all get-out, but calling it something else. Seems like it anyway. It was a very large party after all. Only a handful went down, the rest just went on. )

 

[The Ace]

There was no possibility of successfully invading Britain, and therefore Germany was committed to the long war for which she was manifestly unsuited.

Pearl Harbour was certainly a turning-point, and the decision to invade the SU - politically inevitable, but a tactical blunder - just made sure the war was a bit shorter. Once the Japanese impetus ran out (also inevitable) it was a question of when - not if - the Allies won.

 

[reiver33]

Germany had no realistic prospect of winning given its leadership at the highest levels. The shortfall in strategic appreciation has already been mentioned. This resulted in a series of disjointed campaigns based on opportunism and/or short-term expediency. There was no long-term strategy other than a vague implementation of Hitler's pre-war political bias. Each arm of service each pursued its own agenda with little co-operation - and grudging support - from the others.

For example - the Norway campaign. The primary mover is the Navy who what to make a contribution in a theatre where they will have the lead, with an eye on the post-war military budget allocation. Thus they talk-up the threat of an Allied invasion which will prevent Swedish iron ore being exported via the Norwegian port of Narvik while the northern Baltic Sea remains frozen.

However this attack takes place in mid-Spring, when the Baltic is already beginning to thaw, and on the verge of Germany's make-or-break offensive in the West. If this fails, if France (at least) isn't knocked out of the war, then the Reich is screwed. But if this does succeed then Germany will gain control of the iron ore fields in Lorraine, and no longer need to buy in supplies from Sweden (so no need for Narvik). A far more logical approach would have been to provoke Britain and France into invading Norway, then castigate them in the court of world opinion (especially America).

I would recommend 'Lost Victories' for examples of Hitler's disastrous influence on the Eastern Front. Even if the Soviet Union had been defeated then his abdication of the air war to Goering (who never out-grew the mentality of a squadron leader) would ultimately have cost them the war.

 

[BAYLOR]

Instead of Barbarossa , Germany could have sent troops into Iraq and secured the Oil fields there , That would have put them close to Russia's oil supplies.

 

[BAYLOR]

Their methods of production worked against them as well. Their vehicles weapons were well designed and in one case over engineered which made them difficult to repair on the battle field.

When the t34 tank came on the scene , the Germans captured some of them for study . The T34 was a very simple ,reliable and practical designed tank. It was made so that it could be produced rapidly and in great numbers and was easy to repair on the battlefield. The Germans responded with bigger , heavier tanks like the Panther, Tiger 1 and Tiger 2 all of which were complex machines that were were great when they worked, but they broke down alot and were difficult to repair on the battlefield , worst of all were, difficult to manufacture because they were so complex and over engineered. They were never able to produce nearly enough of them. The allies turned out simpler designs like the the T 34, The Sherman in huger quantities that they overwhelmed the Germans.

 

[WaylanderToo]

there was a book I read (can't remember the title) where Hitler dies, (I think) just prior to Barbarossa leading the Heydrich taking over. There were (as there always are in this sort of novel) a fair few coincidences to ensure 'the right result' (in novel terms) but none were totally outrageous... let's be honest if someone had written a story about Enigma these days it'd be dismissed as relying too much on lucky happenstance.


an interesting read
Was it ever possible for Germany to win World War II? - Quora

 

[Ray McCarthy]

and the decision to invade the SU - politically inevitable,

Likely they knew that Stalin was building up to attack them the following year. Stalin's reaction, "How dare they attack first? I wanted to attack first, we aren't ready yet"

War between Germany and SU was inevitable. If the Germans had kept going and ignored the Russians they'd bypassed, they might have taken Moscow. Stalin was banking on that they wouldn't. The Germans had to have a quick campaign against Russia, sooner rather than later to avoid being overwhelmed by superior Russian resources. This is also why Russia stayed neutral to Japan and only declared war and attacked them after VE and that they had started shipping stuff East. Russians were within ten days of causing Japanese collapse in North, after nearly two weeks of massive gains against Japanese, when US pointlessly dropped Atomic Bombs. Due to 1905 war etc, the Japanese decided surrender to USA rather than being over-run with Russian Troops was preferable.

 

[The Ace]

Likely they knew that Stalin was building up to attack them the following year. Stalin's reaction, "How dare they attack first? I wanted to attack first, we aren't ready yet"

War between Germany and SU was inevitable. If the Germans had kept going and ignored the Russians they'd bypassed, they might have taken Moscow. Stalin was banking on that they wouldn't. The Germans had to have a quick campaign against Russia, sooner rather than later to avoid being overwhelmed by superior Russian resources. This is also why Russia stayed neutral to Japan and only declared war and attacked them after VE and that they had started shipping stuff East. Russians were within ten days of causing Japanese collapse in North, after nearly two weeks of massive gains against Japanese, when US pointlessly dropped Atomic Bombs. Due to 1905 war etc, the Japanese decided surrender to USA rather than being over-run with Russian Troops was preferable.

Hitler and Stalin were on an ideological collision course from the start - it simply suited both of them to come to a agreement over spheres of influence until they were ready (the attack on Poland etc).

 

[MWagner]

You have to include Hitler's personality in any calculus, because without Hitler it's unlikely we would have seen an aggressively expansionist Germany in the first place. And for all their operational and tactical genius, the German military has always been weak at high-level strategy.

There was no possibility of successfully invading Britain, and therefore Germany was committed to the long war for which she was manifestly unsuited.

This is key. Germany simply didn't have the naval capacity to carry out the kind of massive amphibious invasion required to successfully invade Britain. Look at the enormous amount of resources and planning it took simply for the Allies to invade North Africa. D-Day wasn't possible until Germany was already back on their heels from the hammer blows they were suffering in the East, and the Allies had near-absolute air superiority.

Their only real hope was a swift and decisive victory over the Soviets. And given German ignorance of the logistical challenges of that endeavour - German estimates of road capacity in Russia were ludicrously uninformed - that was a slim, slim hope indeed. Some have argued that the Soviet Union would have collapsed swiftly if the Germans came as liberators and not ubermensch conquerors. But of course, if Germany wasn't in the grips of a fascist ideology, it's unlikely they would have invaded the Soviet Union in the first place.

 

[BAYLOR]

Likely they knew that Stalin was building up to attack them the following year. Stalin's reaction, "How dare they attack first? I wanted to attack first, we aren't ready yet"

War between Germany and SU was inevitable. If the Germans had kept going and ignored the Russians they'd bypassed, they might have taken Moscow. Stalin was banking on that they wouldn't. The Germans had to have a quick campaign against Russia, sooner rather than later to avoid being overwhelmed by superior Russian resources. This is also why Russia stayed neutral to Japan and only declared war and attacked them after VE and that they had started shipping stuff East. Russians were within ten days of causing Japanese collapse in North, after nearly two weeks of massive gains against Japanese, when US pointlessly dropped Atomic Bombs. Due to 1905 war etc, the Japanese decided surrender to USA rather than being over-run with Russian Troops was preferable.

You know what really could have messed things up for Stalin? If Hitler instead of persecuting the people in the Russia Republic had instead armed them and offered them their independence from Russia and even better, instead of iwprsioning and killing the Russian solders. why not arm them and send them right back at Stalin? Imagine Stalin have to contend with a lot pissed off republic and pissed of renegade Russian soldiers The chaos that would ice created. Soviet Russia would likely collapsed against that kind of onslaught.

 

[reiver33]

The attack on Russia began as 'map exercise Otto' - a purely military affair (this is what we need to achieve) which was then passed over to the staff side for a logistical appreciation. There was a long history of this twin-track approach in the German General Staff aimed at achieving a workable balance been aspiration and practicality. based on their experiences in WW1 and knowledge (or lack of same) concerning the communications infrastructure in Russia, the Quartermaster department estimated they could adequately supply an offensive to a line Leningrad-Smolensk-a bit east of Kiev in the first year. You then dig in and ride out the inevitable Soviet counter-offensive, while stockpiling supplies for Spring 1942. But - as has been mentioned - Hitler and those who bought into the whole 'Slavic sub-human' ethos believed the Soviet regime would collapse after the first few weeks. Thus logistical realities were ignored in the pursuit of piling on more pressure, in pursuit of final victory, and it was largely due to Stalin's malign influence that the Red Army suffered such appalling losses, which exceeded even the German's best estimates.