Damien Walter on how trad-publishing is not making a comeback

[Wruter]

As publishers attack their own writers, indie authors have stepped in and are now dominating the Amazon bestseller lists across the board. And they’re making a small fortune on 70% royalty rates, while all but the very bestselling mainstream published authors are failing to even make a living.

No, books are not back.

 

[Jo Zebedee]

No, books are not back.

It's a really hard thing to discuss with lots of sides to it.

1. Traditional publishing still brings money in to writers of a certain demograph. Do you think Andy Weir, Hugh Howey and their ilk would have switched to trad from self if they weren't earning more from that model?

And herein lies the problem with successful self publishing. It takes time. Loads and loads of it. To promote, to get the books out, to do your kindle deals, to find editors and cover art and all those things. (I'm hybrid, by the way, a bit of both - one self published book takes as much of my time as two trad...). More and more of the self publishers I know, who've done well, are seeking a traditional deal because they have no time to write. And without more material, their income goes (and remember the self publishing model is greedy for new material. I used to be a blast-it-out writer. Now I'm slower. Why? Because I have so much to do over and above writing. Since the books coming out I despair of finding enough time to write.)

2. Are bookstores dead? No, definitely not. It's always been a tough business to turn a profit in. Margins are, for retail, low especiallly for stores like WH Smith where they do magazines which eat profit margins for breakfast (I used to be a manager in the Irish equivalent of Smiths). Waterstones have turned much of the deficit around and do look to have a sustainable business model in place.

So, here we have a blog with an agenda - to claim all is fine with self publishing and its the way we should all go to make money (and fails to mention that the vast majority of self publishers make nothing at all) - disputing a newspaper article with an agenda (that traditional publishing is back and the e-malarky was all a flash in the pan)

The truth lies somewhere in the middle I think and more and more authors are doing what I have and combining trad and self publishing according to the project.

 

[Vertigo]

I would also dispute what he is saying about the trad publishers pricing ebooks higher than paper. Some examples from my recent purchases (A Amazon W Waterstones):

Neal Asher Dark Intelligence published by Pan: hardback A18.99 W18.99 paperback A8.99 W8.99 ebook A4.68 W6.98
Patrick O'Brian Master And Commander published by Harper: hardback A16.99 Wn/a paperback A8.99 W8.99 ebook A2.99 W2.99
Bernard Cornwell The Last Kingdom published by Gollancz: paperback A8.99 W6.99 ebook A5.99 W5.99

Which suggests two things to me:

1) Price consistently falls from hardback to paperback to eBook
2) Amazon are sometimes cheaper but so are Waterstones

However I do still think that the days of mass market paper books are numbered.

 

[Jo Zebedee]

However I do still think that the days of mass market paper books are numbered.

I think we're going to see this becoming more and more diverse according to genre. There are some genres still strong in that format - the Richard and Judy bookclub style titles. But sf is not one of them. In fact, the last 10 years has killed the sf market for bookstores (I was talking about this over the weekend, as it happens) because they limited the range and the readers - and writers - went online (and were, often, tech savvy enough to do so early.)

 

[Ray McCarthy]

The Mills&Boone/Harlequin likely will stay pocket sized?

 

[Jo Zebedee]

The Mills&Boone/Harlequin likely will stay pocket sized?

Can't see it changing - but they follow something closer to a magazine publishing model than a traditional book one.

 

[Vertigo]

I think we're going to see this becoming more and more diverse according to genre. There are some genres still strong in that format - the Richard and Judy bookclub style titles. But sf is not one of them. In fact, the last 10 years has killed the sf market for bookstores (I was talking about this over the weekend, as it happens) because they limited the range and the readers - and writers - went online (and were, often, tech savvy enough to do so early.)

Yes but ultimately mass paper books are doomed; whether it's in a decade or a century, sooner or later it is, I'm certain, inevitable.

Incidentally did anyone notice that both Damien Walter and the guy he's slagging off - Simon Jenkins - write for the Guardian? One can't help but wonder if this is a bit of a private argument spilling over into the public domain...

 

[Martin Gill]

I read the Guardian piece earlier this week and almost blogged about it for work. For context - by day I'm an industry analyst specialising in eCommerce/digital strategy/digital disruption for a global analyst firm. I often do analyst commentary on press articles. But things like hospital got in the way this week (all good now).

The article is drivel. The "evidence" in Simon Jenkins' piece is a rounding error, not a trend. A less than 2% decrease in digital sales and a less than 1% increase in physical sales. Less than 1% (0.7%) growth is not success in the retail industry, and factor in the retail price index increase in 2015 (0.3% from the ONS) and you've got 0.4% growth. I'd sack a retail CEO who thought 0.4% growth was good enough.

I'd also say Waterstones stopping selling Kindles is the most sensible thing they've done in a while. All they were doing with Kindle sales was offering a low margin gateway drug to entice loyal customers to desert them for Amazon. Sure, you can buy eBooks from Waterstones, but it was a stupid management decision in the first place to sell a hardware device that's so fundamentally tied to a rival distributor's sales infrastructure.

One of the my most bitter sweet professional days this year was the day after I delivered a keynote speech at a digital strategy conference. Two things happened. 1. I got a (very nice) rejection letter for my novel from one of the big publishers. 2. I got an email from the head of strategy FROM THE SAME COMPANY to my work email saying "saw you talk yesterday, our firm really needs your help."

Go figure.

I don't see how the publishing system as is, and the physical book selling industry can survive long term unless they reinvent themselves in a fundamental way.

 

[Ray McCarthy]

I'd also say Waterstones stopping selling Kindles is the most sensible thing they've done in a while.

The only physical bookshop that has any logic to sell Kindles, is the ones Amazon is opening. People can buy a Kindle in Argos or Tesco and other non-book stores. Unless a book store has both terminals in shop and website online and as much eBook content as Amazon, competitively, they are MAD to sell any eBook reader.

I don't see how the publishing system as is, and the physical book selling industry can survive long term unless they reinvent themselves in a fundamental way.

I agree.
1) They need in shop POD on paper for every book ever published. Solves shelf space. Loads of people are NEVER going to consume eBooks unless the readers get a lot better and cheaper.
2) They need in store sale of competitive price/catalogue of eBooks, 30% of people in many Western countries have never used Internet.
3) More or any screens for customers to search, not just staff!

 

[Vertigo]

I'd also say Waterstones stopping selling Kindles is the most sensible thing they've done in a while. All they were doing with Kindle sales was offering a low margin gateway drug to entice loyal customers to desert them for Amazon. Sure, you can buy eBooks from Waterstones, but it was a stupid management decision in the first place to sell a hardware device that's so fundamentally tied to a rival distributor's sales infrastructure.

It's worse than that, actually. Waterstones do sell eBooks but only in the ePub format which would require conversion before it can be read on a kindle. So without getting into techie land a customer cannot even buy eBooks for their kindle from Waterstones.

The only physical bookshop that has any logic to sell Kindles, is the ones Amazon is opening. People can buy a Kindle in Argos or Tesco and other non-book stores. Unless a book store has both terminals in shop and website online and as much eBook content as Amazon, competitively, they are MAD to sell any eBook reader.

I would agree with this but in this case Waterstones do have an online shop which does sell eBooks (though not quite as many as Amazon as they don't have the monopolised self published ones) and much of the time their prices are as low as Amazon. I actually bought my Sony reader (ePub) from Waterstones many years ago and try to buy as many of my eBooks from them as I can. What was mad was selling Kindle rather than say a Nook.

 

[Martin Gill]

What was mad was selling Kindle rather than say a Nook.

Copy that.

More or any screens for customers to search, not just staff!

This is one of our big research themes - digitally enabled stores. The main issue is that many retailer still keep their channels seperate - eComms, stores, mobile etc all have their own revenue targets so essentially compete internally. Some - Burberry, John Lewis, Argos for example in the UK - have broken this mold and are thriving. They understand that digital engagement (done well) drives store footfall which drives incremental sales. I don't know how Waterstones are organised from a stores/eComm/digital content perspective nut I'm willing to bet that they have different people in charge of the different channels and they all work to different targets, rather than measuring customer engagement and value across channels.

This happens to be my professional soap box

 

[Brian G Turner]

they have different people in charge of the different channels

On a related (perhaps) note, I find it incomprehensible that global publishers still separate their English-speaking markets. With the result that authors can be published in Britain but not America (and vice versa) even though the parent company is present in both.

Even worse (for authors) that the world rights will be sold to one arm of the company, to be resold to another arm of the same company while taking a chunk of commission at the expense to the author:
World Rights: Agents Hold Firm

We live in a global economy, yet global publishers act in a fragmented manner.

 

[Ray McCarthy]

What was mad was selling Kindle rather than say a Nook.

Or Kobo, which is bit better I think, does ePub

 

[Ray McCarthy]

We live in a global economy, yet global publishers act in a fragmented manner.

There are historical reasons (such as British Empire, USA simply reprinting without royalties from the foundation of state to 1960s)
Canada actually passed a law, I THINK, that said if USA publisher DIDN'T publish in Canada too in certain time scale, the Canadians could publish. This may have been to do with protecting Canadian retail channels?

 

[Denise Tanaka]

On a related (perhaps) note, I find it incomprehensible that global publishers still separate their English-speaking markets. With the result that authors can be published in Britain but not America (and vice versa) even though the parent company is present in both.

Even worse (for authors) that the world rights will be sold to one arm of the company, to be resold to another arm of the same company while taking a chunk of commission at the expense to the author:
World Rights: Agents Hold Firm

We live in a global economy, yet global publishers act in a fragmented manner.

I'm sure the international corporations would love to dissolve national boundaries and sell books globally without having to bother with different sales tax laws, different copyright and trademark laws, and so forth.

 

[Vertigo]

So there I was blathering on about how it made sense for Waterstones to ditch the Kindle since the eBooks they sell are not the right format for Kindles, and also about how I like the fact that Waterstones have, of late, been competing well with Amazon and my preference for buying from them. Well I just got an email from Waterstones beginning with this:

The Waterstones eBooks store is closing, but we have partnered with Kobo to ensure that you will still be able to access your library of eBook titles purchased with us.

So Waterstones are completely removing themselves from the world of digital reading which I suspect is incredibly stupid and will only accelerate their demise

And it is also another nail in the coffin of freedom from Amazon...

 

[Ray McCarthy]

And it is also another nail in the coffin of freedom from Amazon...

We need to use Amazon *AND* Smashwords, *AND* boycott the Amazon "KDP Select".

 

[Jo Zebedee]

We need to use Amazon *AND* Smashwords, *AND* boycott the Amazon "KDP Select".

No - we need someone to step up and offer authors a deal that makes KDP select look less profitable. Authors already make a pittance - why should they boycott a service that pays better than the alternative. It's up to the market to find a solution to it, not individual authors taking a stand.

 

[Ray McCarthy]

Authors already make a pittance - why should they boycott a service that pays better than the alternative.

It only adds some marketing and extra royalty on some markets (70% vs 35%) if eBook is more than $2.99 (70% vs 35%). It's not as good as Amazon makes out and the real worth of the supposed extra marketing is hard to gauge, vs Smashwords* or indeed Amazon offering the SAME royalty in most markets if your eBook is $2.99 minimum.

KDP Select doesn't pay more than all alternatives. Amazon artificially penalise sub $2.99 books and sales to certain markets if you are not on Select. Their competitors don't.

KDP Select is a MONOPOLY to a seller (Amazon) that now only sells 60% of eBooks. Of course it should be boycotted. People have got into NYT bestseller list via iBooks. I've sold in iBooks via Smashwords as well as Smashwords direct. It's true that majority of my sales are via Amazon and in USA, but I can't see how both me and readers would not be losing if I signed into the KDP Select. It's shoved down authors' throats by being a default selection on several pages and menus.

You can be sure that as Amazon achieved 90%+ of eBook sales that KDP Select would become worth much less. I can't see how it's worth it at all. It's also an attempt to lockout non-Kindle readers (app or eInk) as Amazon only offers one format compared with ALL formats of Smashwords. The majority of people don't know about Calibre and backups.

[* Smashwords distribute to Apple iBooks, Flipkart, Kobo and many others]

 

[Brian G Turner]

Of course it should be boycotted.

Some SP authors swear by multiple platforms, especially in high-volume genres such as Romance. Other SP authors - such as Hugh Howey - argue for the benefits of KDP select exclusivity.

Either way, the SP author has a choice - aim for extra income + reviews from KDP select, or attempt to milk multiple alternative platforms and formats.