Brexit: bad for traditional publishers, good for self-publishers?

Brian G Turner

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An article here covers some bases on the effects on publishing of Brexit:
What Does 'Brexit' Mean for Publishing?

Mostly there's a general gnashing of teeth and wailing, but a couple of specific pointers raised are:

1. Trade publishers face a shrinking market, as UK rights previously applied to English rights throughout Europe. I'm not sure how big this area is, but the writer claims its significant by mentioning it.

2. Consumer spending may result in lower sales volume, and publishers may have to cut prices to keep up unit sales.

3. A weak pound is good for sales income, not so good for production costs.


I may have unintentionally misrepresented some of the arguments - those are the points and their interpretation as I understood them.

All of which, to me, point to Brexit being:

1. Bad news for traditional publishers: less marketshare, lower sales revenues, increased costs,

2. Good news for ebook self-publishers: continued control of existing marketshare, limited impact on already discounted book prices, and increased foreign currency revenues due to weakened pound

There's also the possibility that the EU VAT ruling would no longer be applicable after Brexit. If that is the case, then this would surely benefit self-published writers who wanted to sell their ebooks directly from their own websites. EU VAT rules are complex though. :)
 
It makes no difference really. The big English markets are USA, UK, followed by (no particular order) Australia, Canada, Malta, South Africa, Kenya, Ireland, Gibraltar, IOM, Channel Is x 2, perhaps Cyprus, Israel, maybe India.
Only Ireland, Malta & Cyprus outside UK and in EU.

Never mind the whole VAT thing.

Unlike Cheese, bacon, beef or English HP Sauce (made in Netherlands now), or all the Chinese made gadgets, Asian clothes, books are pretty language specific. The Big Five are pretty global. It's not going to much affect specialist publishers.

Good news for ebook self-publishers: .... increased foreign currency revenues due to weakened pound
Er, no change! On Amazon & CreateSpace you price in US$, or pick some countries to be priced directly. Smashwords you price in US$, I think. In medium to long term the exchange rate has no effect at all on anything! It's only rapid change that causes a problem. In medium term before wage inflation catches up (which takes a few years), imports to UK will seem very expensive.

Also you are thinking about UK SP, in maybe two years time.
 
Er, no change!

Actually, yes. Presuming the self-publisher is UK based, and manually selected pricing for their different target markets, the reduced value of GBP means that royalty payments in USD are now worth more.

Using simplified figures:

When the exchange rate was £1/$1.50, then $10 in royalties was worth £6.66.

Now the exchange rate is £1/$1.30, then $10 in royalties is now worth £7.66.

Whether the devaluation of the £ remains a long-term trend or not remains to be seen.
 
This is true Brian. Seeing how last month most of my sales were in the UK, I hope for a strong pound vs the canadian dollar. It's a funny balancing act though because as I want me dollar to be strong when I have to pay someone in US funds, then I want a strong US when I get paid in US...it will always have ups and downs and goods and bads. One can only hope they balance each other out.
 
There's also the anecdote (I forget where I read it) that people buy more fantasy/sci-fi in a downturn, due to a desire for escapism. Obviously, that's genre-specific, but worth mentioning.
 
the reduced value of GBP means that royalty payments in USD are now worth more.
Unless you are ONLY buying UK stuff, no. :( It's numerically more if you are in the UK converting to Sterling, but it's worth the same. Pedantic, me? :)
Gadgets, Oil, gass, petrol, imported food, clothes etc are going to rapidly rise in price above the exchange rate as importers "hedge".
 

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