The future of flying cars: science fact or science fiction?

[Alexa]

Now this is just something I'm looking for and get rid of traffic every day ! And Uber may give it to us by 2020 if we believe in it !

Science fiction writers and directors have often dispensed with the need to have future vehicles ever drive on the road. Instead, the “cars” are simply small aircraft such as the one Anakin Skywalker used in the Star Wars film Attack of the Clones.

The recent flying car announcements vary in type from single-seat, multi-copter drone-type aircraft, to road-style cars that turn into light aircraft and small flying boats that hover above the water.

It would appear that almost any small flying vehicle capable of transporting a person is now referred to as a flying car. But clearly they are really just a kind of small aircraft.

Drone taxi may be just a first step:

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The future of flying cars: science fact or science fiction?

 

[Vertigo]

I suspect the biggest problem is going to be control and regulation. Physical roads and essentially two dimensions provided a high degree of control over car movements. Moving into three dimensions and no physical 'road' constraints would be highly dangerous without some sort of rigorous control. Adding ground car levels of traffic to our airways has the potential for some major disasters.

Not saying it won't happen, just that I think we're a still quite a long way technologically from being able to manage it sensibly.

 

[Alexa]

You mean we may have air traffic police around the corner ? You can always count on them on rainy and holiday days anyway.

 

[Vertigo]

Not really police. I think it's far more likely that the vehicles will have to be fully automated and controlled by some sort of, again, automated air traffic controller.

 

[SilentRoamer]

I agree with Vertigo, the problem here is going to be the control mechanism.

These are not really comparable to airplanes for reasons extremely specific to the aviation industry as it currently exists. Primarily they are backed by a huge amount of background operations; flight planning, clearance and control, various international jurisdictions and environmental impacts.

I imagine any such "test" or proficiency like a driving test to be much more difficult to pass, it would most likely involve understanding of aviation law and theory. It would probably be like a pilot "lite" test but even than I think @Vertigo is correct and the only reasonable route would be complete automation.

Probably the safest route.

 

[Alexa]

They could put in place some kind of flight corridors. I agree with both of you that some flight planning, clearance and point control are required pre-implementation.

If this is the only way to ger rid of morons on our main roads, I'm ready to pass any air driving test they may put in place.

 

[SilentRoamer]

If this is the only way to ger rid of morons on our main roads, I'm ready to pass any air driving test they may put in place.

We will still end up with uninsured morons causing accidents, people flying unsound vehicles and some form of regulatory parking fine they can slap us all with.

Weirdly enough through I could see flat roofed housing booms. Gotta park your gyrocopter somewhere.

 

[Ursa major]

I suspect the biggest problem is going to be control and regulation.

Not to mention insurance issues. There are, for instance, potentially a lot more third parties when one is not restricted to roads and the properties not immediately next to them.

Does anyone here know what insurance costs are like for, say, owner-operated light aircraft?

 

[Vertigo]

I can imagine a two tier insurance arrangement whereby there is one insurance rate for a fully automated vehicle and a different, higher one if you choose to pilot manually. Actually I could see this coming in for normal ground cars in the foreseeable future.

 

[SilentRoamer]

I can imagine insurance claims in the future.

Claimant: Well I did update the Pilot AI with the most recent Service Pack.
Insurance Company: Our records see that Sir, unfortunately you have failed to apply the correct BIOS updates so your insurance package is null and void.
Claimant: Seriously...?
Insurance Company: Yes Sir and I cannot discuss this further as my batteries are running low. Goodbye.

 

[mosaix]

Running costs, for the average man and woman in the street, will be the big problem. Insurance (as has been said), maintenance and charging costs will probably be prohibitive - not to mention the cost of training and gaining a licence.

 

[Alexa]

Com'in guys! You are not even excited of the perspective of a flying car. Are we SFF fans or not ?

Do you have the same issues with a Corvette, too ?

 

[mosaix]

Do you have the same issues with a Corvette, too ?

Can't afford to run one of those either.

 

[Serendipity]

As amateurs can make an unmanned air vehicle out of chocolate now (not the engines or batteries of course - both of which can be bought off the shelf), I would expect amateurs to be able to make people carrying airborne vehicles within twenty years. After all they only need to go so far off the ground to be useful.

In my view, they are unlikely to be the traditional science fiction vehicles we all know and love (as in The Fifth Element film), but something more practical and slimline from an engineering point of view. Don't forget 3-D printers are not readily accessible, which would help progress a citizen resourced capability.

The real issue is how the law is going deal with it, and let's hope the UK does not make a similar legal restricting mistake that it did when trams became technically feasible.

 

[SilentRoamer]

Amateurs aren't able to build cars without any difficulty and the idea that someone can just print the parts and then just assemble them in their garage seems pretty far fetched.

Building something that small, with the necessary fault tolerances and power is far and beyond the type of additive printing we are talking about - 3d printing is great for simple components made from the same material - how many individual components is a solo aviation vehicle going to require? How many of these can be 3D printed in a single additive material? How is tensile strength and fault indicators going to be tested?

Now I am not saying that someone can't build a flying machine with printed parts and off the shelf components, but what they will not be able to do is build something that passes the required aviation safety and other regulations. Yes people can make chocolate cars - are they road legal and road safe? Would they pass safety tests? No - therefore they're not particularly analogous. I can build a go kart from an old shopping trolley and some rope but that doesn't mean I should be allowed on the road with it.

I can see the comparisons with a kit car but I think the comparisons end there - I expect there will be a market for "amateurs" but I expect these people will have high levels of engineering and mechanical understanding with a more than average enthusiasm for putting things together.

I also expect that these will probably cost more than printed and assembled and bought off the shelf.

Just my musings.

 

[Montero]

On the one hand, yes it is cool. Maybe the design could be useful for rescue services for areas where you can't fly a full sized helicopter.

BUT
Like others I think it increases the chances of accidents, makes them larger - I've seen several buildings down the years, built at a roadside a century before there were cars, finishing up with a car or a lorry embedded in the lounge. I seem to remember a nasty accident in a city in the last year when a helicopter crashed. These things could be easily embedded in your roof.

And speaking as someone really concerned about sustainable living on this planet - oh great, another way to burn energy - and it takes more energy to fly a given mass than to roll it on wheels along a road. Sorry to be a misery, but what will get me excited is empty roads because people have finally developed a lot more ways of working locally and not commuting long distances between home and work. Improved teleconferencing, different work cultures.
I've worked in several jobs where I could easily have worked on my computer from home and not travelled an hour each way - in fact when I had an injury I did so for several weeks and it worked fine. The only reason it couldn't be most days of the week - the managers liked to see everyone in the office. So, there you have two sets of buildings - offices and home - each taking energy to build and maintain and then we spend energy building and maintaining roads and travelling between them. Sheesh. (Not all jobs can be teleworked, but, heck it would be a good start.)

Now, maybe we could transition to sending heavy goods by canal, people by these little aircraft and abandon maintaining the roads. But I'd first want to see calculations on the gains in energy and material in not maintaining the long distance roads vs the increased costs of lifting off the ground entirely.

 

[Serendipity]

I agree the legal / safety situation would need to be sorted for individuals driving close to ground person carrying flyers.

In the meantime, I can see such a close to ground person carrying flyer (need a shorter name than this) being developed to help transport victims out natural disaster zones (earthquake zones come to mind) where ambulances find it difficult to get close to victims. All it needs is another person to steer the carrier, both in terms of direction and keeping up the height. That way it would avoid the the legal flight regulations having to be applied.

 

[Ursa major]

Someone who lives three hundred or so metres from me (across the main road and part way along a longish cul-de-sac) has some sort of flying craft in their driveway. It's smaller than a private plane, but larger than a microlight, and isn't complete -- the wings are detachable (they have been detached, and are not to be seen) -- but the small fuselage (only wide enough for one**) is present and kept in a relatively narrow trailer. I assume the owner takes it to an airfield when they want to use it. (The wings may be kept there, but I'm not sure about that.)

I must take a picture of it sometime.


** - If it didn't have fixings for wings, I'd have assumed that it was some sort of autogyro.

 

[Alexa]

There is a major advantage with a flying car for one person. Traffic is caused by cars occupied by one person. Who needs extra 3-4 places to go to work ? Parents with kids, but only when they are small. Week-ends may be different and maybe still require classic cars for shoppings.

It can also create new jobs, future jobs.

We all have parking places at home and we can use those already available at work. This means we will need special places only if we want to go let's say downtown where the space is usually a problem.

 

[Ursa major]

Where I live the roads (even the main one I mentioned) are not very wide (particularly not by North American standards) and there's the added problem that there are a lot of oak tree branches extending over them**. The problem for a flying vehicle is, therefore, the complete lack of anywhere from which to take off and on which to land.


** - The main road runs up a hill. From part way down the hill, it looks as if the trees form a tunnel; they don't (the trees on either side don't touch), but it's very picturesque.