Why Operation Sealion would always have failed

[paranoid marvin]

Thanks Foxbat, that was an interesting read.

It did seem to be missing a few key things though. From what I read it looks as though the Germans launched the invasion on the assumption that they may have gained air superiority, which just wouldn't happen. It would also have become very clear when RAF began strafing the invading ships and sending them to the bottom of the Channel. It also suggests that much of the British fleet would be in port some distance away, even though (in this wargame) the Germans have been building their invasion force for several months. The whole point of the RN, and the main reason that Germany hadn't already invaded, was the threat of the RN sinking their troop transports. There would have been no hiding the German invasion fleet; the British would have known it was there. And whilst they may not know exactly when or where the invasion would come, they would have been close enough to intercept it when it set off.

Realistically with 90,000 German troops already landed, capturing town and ports and establishing beach heads, there is little chance that Hitler would give up on them. By far the hardest part of the job (creating a beach head) had been done, and victory would almost be in their grasp. Hitler kept reinforcing Stalingrad with close to a million troops, and this was when things were going badly, so it's unlikely that he would have called off the invasion at this late stage. I also find it difficult to believe that the Luftwaffe would continue attacking London rather than reinforcing and protecting the troops on the ground.


For me, operation Sea Lion was all about gaining air superiority. Without it, the Germans wouldn't even attempt a seaborne invasion, hence the Battle of Britain. If they had attempted it without air superiority, the RN would have sunk a considerable percentage of the invasion force in the Channel, the beach fortifications along the Southern coast would have made it a bloody affair for any who did land, thousands of camouflaged pillboxes and artillery posts would have severely hampered those who made it inland, and (very likely) Churchill would have ordered the carpet bombing of South East England as a final response.

 

[Foxbat]

I tend to agree with your assessment @paranoid marvin
It's not clear why the RN were not ready in this scenario - especially as poor sea conditions restricted the invasion to air combat for the first couple of days. Surely this would indicate a prelude to invasion? But we are talking about the British here so maybe the ships were waiting on their supplies of PG Tips arriving before sailing
The only other reason might be the feint towards Iceland and a reluctance to commit to one area only to find the invasion happening in another.

I have wargamed this situation myself many times. When I was younger, I used SeeLowe by Simulations Publications

Seelöwe: The German Invasion of Britain, 1940

Seelowe is a hypothetical wargame depicting Operation Sealion (in German: Seelöwe), the anticipated German invasion of the British Isles that would have followed a Luftwaffe victory in the Battle of Britain. The map shows central and southern England and the English Channel. Three invasion...

boardgamegeek.com

and in more recent years Decisive Campaigns: Warsaw To Paris, which has a Sealion scenario


Each play through starts off fine, with some significant advances but, as the days wear on, it becomes increasingly difficult to hold on. Even if winning the air war, it's still a logistical nightmare for the Germans and, with the best will in the world, it's impossible to keep those troops supplied across the channel with so many barges lost in the first few days.

 

[paranoid marvin]

I think that with air superiority all things become possible. With air superiority the RN takes the flagships further North, allowing easier access across the Channel for the invasion fleet, also allowing the Luftwaffe to soften up the beach defences. With a foothold gained, airfields in the SE of England are captured and the radar stations put out of action (probably by the British themselves), meaning that air superiority is guaranteed. Then with captured airfields, English towns and cities can be bombed day and night with impunity, and the attacking ground forces are reinforced with air cover. As the Germans found out in the later years of WWII, it's incredibly difficult to mount any kind of offensive action when you can only do it at night or when there is heavy cloud cover.

It's quite possible that at this stage the majority of British forces go to ground and mount 'commando' style raids, and/or retreat to the more mountainous regions such as Wales, The North and Scotland, as do the RN, Royal Family and the government.

It does make you wonder if the Germans had committed all the resources planned for Barbarossa to the British campaign, and continued to grind down the RAF with constant attacks against airfields and radar stations rather than towns and cities, if they eventually would have gained air superiority. Britain had no problems with manufacturing more aircraft, but the training of new pilots and the exhaustion of 'the few' was a real concern.

 

[Foxbat]

I'm sure I read somewhere (but can't remember where) that there were contingency plans to set up the government and royal family in exile in Canada and that there were indeed plans to mount a resistance. I think, even if most of Britain had fallen, the continuous manpower drain to maintain order could have hamstrung efforts in the east.

The Soviet Union was always Hitler's number one target (he even announced this many years previously in Mein Kampf) so I don't think he would even contemplate diverting all those resources across the channel.