Common SF storylines that are unlikely

[Onyx]

I love SF and even like to write some of things I find "unrealistic", so bear with me:

Colonizing terraformed planets. The more I think about this, the less likely it seems. In stories, people build ships, travel frozen or in uncomfortable generational conditions all to get to a planet that isn't going to be earth like so they can turn it into a place to build houses and farm? Here on earth, people who grow up on farms seem to want to migrate to cities. Why would the people of the future want to be land owners on an empty panet when they could have made less of an effort to construct an artificial environment in a moon or on a more secure space station that has all the advantages of cities and no concerns about environmental disasters. Planets with atmospheres are more difficult to travel to and from as well as travel between points.

How much room do we need? Currently, half the world's population lives on 1% of the available land, and the earth is only 29% land. That means that 3.7 billion people are currently living in the equivalent of a single rotating cylinder that is 800 miles long and 250 in diameter. Which would certainly be somewhat crowded, but no more so than most large cities. You could have a quarter of that density and still fit 1 billion people. So creating surface area to live comfortably doesn't really require that much engineering, which is why the math is unlikely to ever make turning some boiling ball of CO2 into a replacement earth ever very attractive. It might become interesting as a kind of stunt or piece of nostalgia, but not really as a useful way to deal with population expansion or even people who get that old-timey settler itch. Find an asteroid to settle in, if that's your thing.

 

[Onyx]

Cyborgs. We already have plenty of people on earth with wiring in their brains, synthetic organs and electronic prosthetists. But will we ever have half machine tough guys menacing the streets?

The main reason I don't think so is because cyborging is a stop gap. It is a technology to replace organic parts when they aren't available. The problem is that organic replacements are only going to become more and more available as cloning, genetics, 3D printing of stem cell tissue frames and transplants become better and better. Metal arms might be strong, but really no stronger than the meat they are grafted on to. So a 'bionic man' really requires a full Ghost in the Shell type organic brain only type body to really be very useful, but then the question is "Useful for what?"

We idolize warriors and always have, but the days of fighting wars with armed men is coming to a close, and law enforcement is not far behind it. Small drone technology and robots will shortly be more flexible, harder to destroy and more capable than a person shaped soldier could ever be. So why would we want or need physical supermen? Especially if we have any concerns over personal security and spree killers - it really isn't attractive to have people who's regular body are more dangerous that a person with a rifle, yet are no match for a robot made to counter them. I don't think society would tolerate these kind of alterations or the people willing to perform them, and even if they did, the result wouldn't have any more utility than a normal person in daily life.

You could point to life extension, but you aren't going to get that many extra years before your old brain falls apart like your heart did. Advances in biology could fix that, but would likely fix all the other reasons for cybernetics at the same time, so we're back to all biological bodies again being the simplest fix.

Anything can happen, and people will do it as a fetish, but cyborgs are unlikely to ever be a reasonable option in the near future. Someday the line between machine and organism will be so blurred that this might no longer be true, but the way we usually think of them is only fun fiction.

 

[SilentRoamer]

With regards to Cyborgs or implants to augment human abilities. I always liked Peter F Hamiltons take on this - that we might end up with super humans powered by tech and funded by extreme wealth.

I'm not saying it's entirely plausible but the idea of the super rich taking the best advantages of emerging tech is hardly a novel idea!

I also think Hamiltons take on it is much more likely - biononics that integrate with human cells, which are literally printed as Organic Circuitry onto the skin.

 

[Joshua Jones]

Yeah, I think the idea of grafting a robotic arm onto a human is not terribly functional except as a prosthetic in lieu of a biological one (maybe a temporary one until the biological one grows?). Two may actually be more functional than one, as you can have some support rigging between them to take the pressure off the tissue, but it still isn't much of an improvement.

Where I see cybernetics as viable is as enhancements to existing structures, rather than replacements. I could see nanobots being used to supplement white blood cells in fighting diseases, environmental toxin exposure, NBC exposure, and so forth. Retnal implants could be used for synching up to a weapon for targetting, laser designation for guided munitions, navigation, communication, providing active translation of other languages and situational awareness for deaf individuals, or a score of other possibilities. I could see subdermal armor, mind/machine interfaces, and brain implants which speed synapse firing or release adrenaline on command.

All this to say, I could see cyborgs, but not quite in the same was as is typical. I think what may replace that role would be powered body armors which use a mind/machine interface.

 

[Justin Swanton]

Intelligent computers that are capable of abstractive thought, have free-will, and are self-aware.

When one understands how a CPU works one realises it has nothing to do with intelligent thought. CPUs just create a simulation of mathematical processes but without 'understanding' the nature of the equations they perform. You can make a CPU as powerful as you like, it never does anything else except simulate mathematical equations without rising a millimetre towards true thought. These equations can serve to give the appearance of thinking but no real thinking actually takes place. It's like avatars in a PC game - they're not real people; they just look real and simulate human responses in given situations.

 

[Onyx]

Intelligent computers that are capable of abstractive thought, have free-will, and are self-aware.

When one understands how a CPU works one realises it has nothing to do with intelligent thought. CPUs just create a simulation of mathematical processes but without 'understanding' the nature of the equations they perform. You can make a CPU as powerful as you like, it never does anything else except simulate mathematical equations without rising a millimetre towards true thought. These equations can serve to give the appearance of thinking but no real thinking actually takes place. It's like avatars in a PC game - they're not real people; they just look real and simulate human responses in given situations.

Computers sound a lot like the neural net processors we call 'brains'.

 

[dask]

Time travel, unfortunately. However, there's still hope for the Bergey Brass Brassiere.

 

[Onyx]

Time travel, unfortunately.

Have you read "The Peripheral" by William Gibson?

 

[dask]

No, but if it's good I'll keep an eye open for it. I did read a nonfiction book about time travel a few years ago. Don't remember the title or author, however. Do still have the book somewhere.

 

[Onyx]

No, but if it's good I'll keep an eye open for it. I did read a nonfiction book about time travel a few years ago. Don't remember the title or author, however. Do still have the book somewhere.

The story has no physics violations. It's also wonderfully written, as you'd expect.

 

[Justin Swanton]

Computers sound a lot like the neural net processors we call 'brains'.

Answering this point takes the discussion beyond the subject matter covered in the Chrons so we must leave it at that.

 

[Danny McG]

Computers sound a lot like the neural net processors we call 'brains'.

You call them brains, I call them supper.

 

[mosaix]

Stowaways on spaceships.

 

[Justin Swanton]

A functioning galactic empire.

In SF stories it always need magic hyperspace travel to make it work.

 

[Onyx]

A functioning galactic empire.

In SF stories it always need magic hyperspace travel to make it work.

Mainly because no one can wrap their heads around people existing on much longer time scales to where long voyages aren't an issue.

But the idea of governance on that scale always seems absurd.

 

[Onyx]

Stowaways on spaceships.

I like it! Please discuss.

(I had always assumed that spacecraft stowaways were possible if the ship has an excess of life support or its voyage of short duration.)

 

[mosaix]

I like it! Please discuss.

(I had always assumed that spacecraft stowaways were possible if the ship has an excess of life support or its voyage of short duration.)

I just can't envisage a scenario where anyone, other than the crew and permitted passengers, got anywhere near a spaceship.

Scenario: Apollo 12 on route to moon. "What are you doing here?"

Having said that I think the short stories based around stowaways on spaceships are some of my favourites. I think the first I ever read was The Cold Equations in Analog. Can't remember the author.

I wonder if there's ever been a recorded instance of a stowaway on a submarine? I would imagine unauthorised access was difficult but not as difficult as a spaceship. But who knows? If space travel becomes commonplace and security becomes slack...

 

[dask]

Tom Godwin was the author of "The Cold Equations."

 

[night_wrtr]

I just can't envisage a scenario where anyone, other than the crew and permitted passengers, got anywhere near a spaceship.

True. Most real-life stowaways are small animals, like mice. A story that is about a feral species of space mice that comes back to earth could be interesting.

 

[dask]

True. Most real-life stowaways are small animals, like mice. A story that is about a feral species of space mice that comes back to earth could be interesting.

Or some kind of new plague those mice would bring.