Police stakeout

JNG01

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In my WIP, the main character is on the lam. Early on, he tries to go back home to let his wife know that he's alive and okay, etc., and notices that it's under visual and audio surveillance. His desire to avoid being caught and to avoid involving her in his problem is the justification for him staying in isolation, away from home, for most of the story (he does manage to communicate with her electronically).

This goes on for nearly eight months. That seems long to me. Is this length of time plausible? Or, what elements would make it more plausible?
 
When you say electronically, I assume you mean via a computer, which is a problem. With cell phones it becomes a bigger problem, and with pay phones (if he could find one) to a lesser degree. Anything electronic is trackable. In today's automobiles, make the call in a particular car and it will get tagged. He could dark web it all he wants, yet once they've cracked any encryption any use of a single computer or if they choose to monitor all of her traffic will allow them to lock in on his current location.

If you dispose of the phone every call, they won't be able to zero in on him specifically once he is off it...but...they would know where he called from and prepare for the next call with a response in that city, and rather quickly zero in on his location, then use local cameras to track him as best as possible, slowly tightening the noose.

Forwarded paper mail is the safest route. IOW, he mails the letter/envelope in a letter to someone who removes it and sends on the contained letter. If they (LE) were really trying, about the best they could do was find the general location (city, maybe specific P.O.) where the letter was resent from, yet that's about it. Naturally, they could also intercept every letter. So, he could never even hint at where he is at mentioning local events, weather and so on.

K2
 
If you dispose of the phone every call, they won't be able to zero in on him specifically once he is off it...but...they would know where he called from and prepare for the next call with a response in that city, and rather quickly zero in on his location, then use local cameras to track him as best as possible, slowly tightening the noose.

How about taking a taxi (different companies as much as possible) to a random location (say 15 miles away or so) to make a cell-phone call? (Assuming he could access cash to pay that way, I guess.)
 
Might be an idea to PM Ralph Kern. Not only is he a fine writer but also a cop.
 
How about taking a taxi (different companies as much as possible) to a random location (say 15 miles away or so) to make a cell-phone call? (Assuming he could access cash to pay that way, I guess.)

Well then they have you within a 15 mile radius. 1 call, 3 calls, 5 calls, connect the dots and start looking at the center of them. That's why I posed it like I did. Most folks think if they're out of reach (not local), they can't be tracked down. Those days are over...and even movie 'need 30-seconds to trace a call' stuff was nonsense.

Truth of the matter is, if you're on the run...run, don't look back. Why I mentioned not talking about the weather in a letter. We all feed specific information about ourselves, whereabouts, our surroundings in even the most casual of conversations. Good investigators (some detectives are shockingly good at reading between the lines and knowing people) will even recognize when someone is baiting them with bad information...and often deduce where they are by what they tried not to say.

I had a guy tonight try telling me how he 'ran dope and guns for years by moving his sim card from one 300-minute phone to the next,' *snort :LOL:* nonsense (whole story was IMO). More movie stupidity, either it didn't happen or no one cared about him.

K2
 
Well then they have you within a 15 mile radius. 1 call, 3 calls, 5 calls, connect the dots and start looking at the center of them.

Unless you can make the calls in a pattern that suggests a different centre than the reality? (I'm interested in this because I have to solve a similar problem in my WIP.)

or no one cared about him.

I guess the success or otherwise of any scheme will depend on what resources the police (or whoever) are putting into finding you.
 
Unless you can make the calls in a pattern that suggests a different centre than the reality? (I'm interested in this because I have to solve a similar problem in my WIP.)
There is a thing called Facet Theory that is used to trace back the origins of events. Police use it to work out where criminals as likely [or not] to come from. Crudely put, people usually commit crimes where it is convenient for them [access, opportunity etc]. If you wanted to hide that location and use another as a centre, you would have to know how that area works as well. Or the patterns wouldn't make sense to someone who does know the area.
 
VOIP call from internet cafes, ran off a custom operating system (disguised as Windows) he booted the computer into with a usb stick, and running through proxies in countries the local law enforcement would have trouble getting to share data?

You can't stop people tracking you, but you can make it a more expensive and slow process, in which case you need to be a high value target for them to bother or allocate the resources to it.

Also the possibility he could set up small computers inside public locations like libraries, which use their network (like a raspberry pi box mounted under a computer desk) and he could have a phone that uses wifi only, which could connect and send a text through his device when he passes by one of his locations.

If you wanted to get really fancy, he could have a mesh network of them throughout the town, and the one that finally sends the text could be randomised.
 
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Unless you can make the calls in a pattern that suggests a different centre than the reality? (I'm interested in this because I have to solve a similar problem in my WIP.)

Keep in mind, the key feature of what I said is using a different phone (NOT moving a sim card, but the whole phone) after each and every use. Here's the biggest problem--and why I mention using paper mail and a relay--it becomes so ridiculous in a very short time it's not worth the effort.

Any phone you use could very well be intercepted by a random imsi-catcher which LE and governments are now using along with criminal elements. An imsi-catcher will trick the phone into believing it is receiving an answer back from a cell tower, and in the process download hacking software which allows gps tracking, the microphones (there is an array of them in smart phones) and cameras to be turned on at will, sonic distancing to map rooms, text/email hacking...etc. >>>>know this, they do NOT focus on finding 'a phone,' but do it to ALL phones<<<< Add to that, any information you have stored, gps routes (not that you saved, but all), wifi connections available locations, automotive systems and computers it communicates with, etc., are all retrieved.

For governments and LE, imsi-catchers are now even outdated. Think about it...in this time of Covid-19, without consent (though they laughably offer for you to download the app), they're performing contact tracing using people's phones. ;) Right this second in Hong Kong people are deleting social media accounts to try and erase their digital footprint...it won't help them. Their phone which they're keeping is what's compromised, PRC has already acknowledged that, and if you think due to a higher social morality or legal civil liberties any other nation isn't doing that, you'd be wrong. Those laws just mean they won't openly admit it, but will use that tech to track people down and then claim it was good detective work.

Ever notice how every modern car you get into wants to establish a connection to a new phone in the vehicle? Well, it's just been identified, and that information is transferable through the automobiles wifi and other external communication systems. Meaning, you take odd cab to X place and once there you make the call...take new cab back to where-ever...and if they put out an APB the PCs in all the police cars as they tap into passing vehicles systems can then say 'Y phone (previously identified during your call) is in Z car heading N/S/E/W along whatever street.

A PC is just as bad, and government and LE agencies have worked very hard to learn all the back routes and methods to disguise who you are and where you're located and hack into what you're doing.

Also, don't forget that just 'carrying' a credit card or other chipped identification makes you susceptible to RFID/NFC/GT that permits close range Radio Frequency IDentification, Near Field Communication, Geospatial Tracking due to those countless systems (gas pumps, stores, etc all communicating back to central systems). So all digital financial and modern identification needs to be discarded. You don't have to 'tap it' for it to work.

Point being if you're serious...ditch the electronic stuff and all I.D.. If you're super-serious, break off all contact. Any person you have previously interacted with will become their target to snag you--IF they want you bad enough. That's what most people don't realize, they're just not that important for LE to try that hard.

Anywho... *puts on tinfoil hat*

K2
 
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Yeah I think K2 touches on something important here. Much of how many steps one must take to hide really depends on how many resources are allocated to finding a person. If your character is on the lam for something relatively minor, it's unlikely they will dedicate the resources needed to hunt someone to the extent she described above. That said, if someone has done something particularly nefarious, living with nearly any modern conveniences is basically impossible. You pretty much have to resort to shelter living in the middle of literal nowhere (i.e. not a rural community. Think more like deep in the woods or uninhabited island with suitable jungle) where you grow small amounts of crops, bow hunt, and if you must buy something, use cash. Alternatively, falling in with a rather seedy group could suffice, provided they cannot be flipped, or a tenant farmer type situation where the person who owns the farm doesn't ask many questions. This could give the opportunity for something long term which is beyond sustenance living, but anytime another person is involved in the plot, this is an element which cannot be truly controlled.
 
Thanks for the detailed replies and really helpful information. I learned a lot from reading this discussion. I really appreciate the willingness to share knowledge freely.

Do you have any insights about the length of time? The protagonist is an ethical, upstanding, pro-LEO sort of guy thrust into a set of circumstances that have tragic results. In a short span of time, he goes from no criminal record to being on the lam for murder, escaping jail, aggravated assault of a police officer resulting in permanent disability, and is (wrongly) suspected to have played a role in the disappearance of his children.

The protagonist assumes, and has some evidence, that law enforcement is devoting significant resources to catching him. Is it reasonable for him to assume his house is not safe to visit, even if he is confident he can get inside without being noticed, after eight months have passed? It sound like the answer is "yes," but any further insights you have on the subject are appreciated.

I'm satisfied that other plot elements within the story adequately address the practical difficulties of communicating while remaining uncaught.
 
Well, first off...just because he might be innocent regarding his kids, he is now guilty of (murder?), escaping jail, and assault of a PO. He might prove he was wrongly accused of the first thing, but that's no excuse for the things that follow along with numerous other things they might charge him with (fleeing and eluding, etc.).

In any case as to time, it's all a matter of how strong his will is to not get caught, and how strong the will of LE is to catch him. As far as sneaking back home, who can say? He might be able to in a day or it might take years. Again, the will of all involved is what determines that. E.g.: Just because LE might have given up looking for him at his home, who's to say Nosey Nellie the neighbor doesn't see him and call the police.

That said, there is nothing saying he couldn't disguise himself as say 'the cable guy,' and when he shows he makes sure his wife doesn't give it away, or a gazillion other options that all make for the excitement you might be looking for.

Zero risk equals zero fun ;)

K2
 
@-K2-

Yes, he's legally hosed for life, with no way around it. If all the facts were known, the murder charge would be reduced to manslaughter (or, depending on the prosecutor, dropped altogether) and he'd be cleared of suspicion related to his kids, but guilty-as-charged with respect to escaping and assault. He's in the regrettable position of having done things that are understandable, but not legally justifiable.

It serves the plot to have him stay away from home and away from direct contact with his wife for the better part of a year, and it sounds like (assuming he has a compelling reason to not be in prison) that's not an implausible or disproportionate reaction.
 
So, for a follow-up, I'd like to ask for some expansion on a point made earlier. The current method protagonist and wife use to communicate is a set of pay as-you-go phones. The wife's are scribed with sequential numbers (1 through whatever), and the protagonist has the list of phone numbers matched to the sequence. The husband also has a set of phones. They use each phone a handful of times (nor more than three). Tthe protagonist has to initiate the first communication each time they switch, since he has her new number but not visa-versa. They both destroy their phones on an agreed text signal. Protagonist, due to certain plot elements, communicates from all over the world, but about half the time from rural Serbia.

Being able to text is an important plot device. Is this a plausible procedure? I'd define as >50% chance of not resulting in protagonist being caught, or wife's life being significantly disrupted by law enforcement, over the course of about a year.
 
Most of this assumes that the police are actually interested in taking someone into custody. They often aren't. In one of my older brother's recent breaki-ins, his security cameras got good video of the guy and of the stuff he took. I showed the video to the police, they recognized the burglar, told me his name, and that he was out on parole. They didn't arrest him, even though the break-in was a parole violation.

After my Dad was killed during an armed robbery of his store, the police told me within a month the names of the two guys who did it. They weren't arrested either.
 
Every time the wife uses a phone LE has both that phone and the other's numbers and locations, and can download malware to them using an imsi-catcher so that each can be discreetly controlled by LE. IOW, he calls her--or texts--both phones are then known. From that point on each phone is not only trackable, but controllable, and LE can turn on the microphones, gps, cameras and so on at will and obviously know their locations.


K2
 
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