I read the thread (an annoyingly fragmented version of a blog post) and came away with a different impression. There are some crucially important conditional clauses in there. *IF* you have nailed the cover, blurb, and title. Good grief! I'm a first-time author and I'm expected to know how to do those things? Or even, if I hire it out, to recognize good work from average? And if I get it wrong, I'm doomed, first step out the door.
Because look at the other conditional clauses. IF the algorithm has identified your audience. But not a word on how to recover if the algorithm has it wrong. Or, more likely, if the author is unable to tell things are going wrong (expectations set too high or too low) until recovery has drifted beyond the horizon of possibility.
Then there's IF people see your book (on launch day). And how is that supposed to work, without extra marketing? And then are you running the risk of having sales go down on subsequent days and having Al G. Rithm decide people don't like your book and you are doomed but in a different direction.
The one thing I do sort of agree with is that a first-time author shouldn't bother with pre-orders. But that's not specific enough. If my last book sold only ten copies in six months, should I try pre-orders on the next one? Does it matter if the next one is V2 in a series or is a separate stand-alone? What if I sold a hundred copies in six months? A thousand? Or is the key variable how many on my mailing list? Or is it the open rate on that list?
For me, it got to the point where I could identify so many variables, so many of which were impossible even to set parameters for, that I gave up on the notion that I can control much.
Except.
I can make a good web site. I can publish a newsletter regularly, regardless of number of subscribers (or post to a blog or whatever form one chooses over silence). I can work hard on copy--blurb, Amazon description, back cover description, elevator pitch, all that sort of thing. It's all writing, which I'm supposed to be good at. I can pay attention to categories and keywords at Amazon (but I don't necessarily need to tweak them endlessly). And I'm willing to throw a certain amount of cash at advertising and promotions. I've already accepted that I'm going to spend a few thousand dollars a year on this writing gig. But not a thousand a month (as some do).
Those things are not just within my power and resources, they are comprehensible to me. I have faith that I will slowly learn some of the other mysteries of promotion, not least because I've learned some (see above) over the past ten years. I also know I won't learn them all and even if I did, they will be in constant flux. That's ok. Life is change, as the poet sayeth. How it differs from the rocks.
