Considering the current advances of AI how likely do you think an AI might replace you in your job?

how likely do you think an AI might replace you in your job in 10 years?


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Hmmm. I'm not quite sure of the accuracy of that one. Most of us work maybe 8 hours a day 5 days a week. Most of our ancestors would have killed for such short hours, even if extended to 6 days a week. They basically worked all the hours of daylight. Though I guess it depends on how far you go back with the ancestors.
Not really. The people who would have killed for a 40-hour week were the 19th century serfs of the Industrial Revolution. People in the pre-industrial past did more manual labour than we do, but it wasn't backbreaking and they were accustomed to it. It's a bit like living in an Amish community: the Amish take the work schedule in their stride but visitors find themselves gasping. And people in Mediaeval times had many more holidays than we do, about 60 not including Sundays. See here, here and here. Pilgrimages were popular as a form of vacation and the ordinary folk had plenty of free time for them. From the perspective of a labour-free society we are going backwards.
 
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Hmmm. I'm not quite sure of the accuracy of that one. Most of us work maybe 8 hours a day 5 days a week. Most of our ancestors would have killed for such short hours, even if extended to 6 days a week. They basically worked all the hours of daylight. Though I guess it depends on how far you go back with the ancestors.
I've heard that people in the paleolithic only worked between 4 and 6 hours.... which seems nice.
But the average lifespan was 35 and probably half of the children died before they reached puberty ... which is not so nice. Lifespan in medieval times was slightly better.
 
The hours average out over a year. When sowing and reaping you would work from Sun up to Sun down; unless it was Sunday. Depending on the period in which you lived, the lord who owned the land on which you worked would determine how much free time you had, and a 'holiday' was travelling to a nearby village. Other than for religious reasons, part of the purpose for people going on pilgrimage was to be allowed to get away from work, to see other places and to meet other people. It was still fraught with danger of robbery and worse.
 
The hours average out over a year. When sowing and reaping you would work from Sun up to Sun down; unless it was Sunday. Depending on the period in which you lived, the lord who owned the land on which you worked would determine how much free time you had, and a 'holiday' was travelling to a nearby village. Other than for religious reasons, part of the purpose for people going on pilgrimage was to be allowed to get away from work, to see other places and to meet other people. It was still fraught with danger of robbery and worse.

Even during sowing and reaping (and how many days in the year were devoted to that?) the hours actually spent working weren't that long. This article is excellent. An extract:
Before capitalism, most people did not work very long hours at all. The tempo of life was slow, even leisurely; the pace of work relaxed. Our ancestors may not have been rich, but they had an abundance of leisure. When capitalism raised their incomes, it also took away their time. Indeed, there is good reason to believe that working hours in the mid-nineteenth century constitute the most prodigious work effort in the entire history of humankind.

Therefore, we must take a longer view and look back not just one hundred years, but three or four, even six or seven hundred. Consider a typical working day in the medieval period. It stretched from dawn to dusk (sixteen hours in summer and eight in winter), but, as the Bishop Pilkington has noted, work was intermittent - called to a halt for breakfast, lunch, the customary afternoon nap, and dinner. Depending on time and place, there were also midmorning and midafternoon refreshment breaks. These rest periods were the traditional rights of laborers, which they enjoyed even during peak harvest times. During slack periods, which accounted for a large part of the year, adherence to regular working hours was not usual. According to Oxford Professor James E. Thorold Rogers[1], the medieval workday was not more than eight hours. The worker participating in the eight-hour movements of the late nineteenth century was "simply striving to recover what his ancestor worked by four or five centuries ago."
So our techno-industrial complex hasn't really achieved much at all. Except stress us.
 
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I've heard that people in the paleolithic only worked between 4 and 6 hours.... which seems nice.
But the average lifespan was 35 and probably half of the children died before they reached puberty ... which is not so nice. Lifespan in medieval times was slightly better.
Psalm 90, written about 1000BC, puts an average human lifespan at 70 years, 80 for the vigorous types. Most people died in infancy as child mortality was nature's way of keeping the population stable. But if you survived early childhood then you could reasonably expect to live nearly as long as we live now. You'd also be a good deal healthier and live a healthier lifestyle (good food, exercise, no stress).
 
Psalm 90, written about 1000BC, puts an average human lifespan at 70 years, 80 for the vigorous types. Most people died in infancy as child mortality was nature's way of keeping the population stable. But if you survived early childhood then you could reasonably expect to live nearly as long as we live now. You'd also be a good deal healthier and live a healthier lifestyle (good food, exercise, no stress).
I wouldn’t trust anything the Bible says about human lifespans

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AI Anxiety: How These 20 Jobs Will Be Transformed By Generative Artificial Intelligence
 
I wouldn’t trust anything the Bible says about human lifespans
I think you can trust the psalm. David was observing what everyone around him already knew, whereas the lifetimes of people before the flood were not something the contemporaries of the Pentateuch's author had any direct experience of. I could hardly write "The life of a man is 800 years, or 900 if he has strength in him" and not expect to be classified a loony tune. Nor could David.
 
Psalm 90, written about 1000BC, puts an average human lifespan at 70 years, 80 for the vigorous types. Most people died in infancy as child mortality was nature's way of keeping the population stable. But if you survived early childhood then you could reasonably expect to live nearly as long as we live now. You'd also be a good deal healthier and live a healthier lifestyle (good food, exercise, no stress).
Well, that's a big IF. A bit like saying: if you survive playing Russian roulette where 3 of the 6 chambers have a bullet you can live a "long" life. I am sure surviving after 60 was a really rare event in the Paleolithic. Without antibiotics, any minor disease ( or a would) would be lethal. And that's the male population. The lifespan for women was probably 5 to 7 years shorter because of childbirth deaths.
So no, I am quite happy I was born in the industrial age.
 
I would like to hope as a retiree a robot would go to heaven/hell in my place. Think of all the years I could draw on my state pension!
 

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