What's new in the next 30 years?

People at MIT are also working on ultra light weight solar cells using enhanced carbon, something like 20 times lighter than conventional solar cells. It needs a rigid backing.

We might note that almost all modern roofing type requires a rigid backing anyway. So a lightweight solar sheet that was installed like so many PVC roofs or steel roofs or shingle roofs is not so difficult a proposition and certainly doesn't require a major learning curve.

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While making it isn't zero emission
Unfortunately very far from it; cement production is one of the biggest industrial producers of carbon.

Whilst I am generally in favour of using hydrogen for fuel it is unwise not to understand its drawbacks. It is difficult and expensive to produce and incredibly difficult to store (containment of what is after all the smallest atom). However I believe one of it's biggest problems is its much higher combustion temperature as compared to fossil fuels. It's always assumed that the combustion of hydrogen is emission free as it only produces water, however there are many other gases present in the air being used for its combustion (using pure oxygen would be prohibitively expensive) and those high temperatures cause a number of other chemical reactions in those gases producing nitrogen oxides. Note that fuel cells are better in this regard in that they operate via an electrochemical reaction rather than combustion.
 
Solar Furnaces
Solar Furnaces are being used for more and more industrial processes. For example: Steel and Cement production require enormous amounts of heat. Over the decades and centuries that heat was produced by burning coal and generating a vast amount of CO2
Solar Furnaces are being used for more and more processes obviating the need to burn the coal (generate the CO2) to complete the process.

At 30 Years Young, the Future Is Bright for NREL's High-Flux Solar Furnace​


Steel production:
Swiss microtechnology company Panatère, a watch component manufacturer and steel recycling business based in Saignelégier, has announced that it will soon inaugurate its concentrating industrial solar furnace. A pilot model – and a world first – that will allow it to melt green steel, locally, to produce components for the watchmaking, medical and aeronautical sectors.

Melting steel using solar energy is the bet Panatère is about to win. A manufacturer of steel and stainless-steel watch components, the company will in a few months be the first in the world to use an industrial solar furnace to melt metal.

Cement production:
Synhelion and Cemex announced today a significant milestone in their joint effort to develop fully solar-driven cement production: the scaling of their technology to industrially-viable levels. This includes the continuous production of clinker, the most energy-intensive part of cement manufacturing, using only solar heat.

At the beginning of 2022, the companies announced the first-ever successful production of solar clinker in a small-scale batch process pilot.
 
Earth, Wind, and Fire

Fuel cells are a clean, safe emission way to use hydrogen as a fuel.

The Korean and Japanese companies are working on combustion engines to burn hydrogen or ammonia.

Most likely the reason they are looking into Amogy's system of using hydrogen as a fuel is to copy the method of extracting the hydrogen from the ammonia and then feed it into a combustion engine. There are also plans for simple diesel engines running on ammonia. The first ammonia-powered, four-stroke marine engine to be made available for order, debuted this past November from Finland-based marine technology company Wärtsilä.

Neither of those combustion solutions are anywhere near clean. Even a "supposedly clean" diesel engine is creating harmful particulate pollution by its very operation.

Even the fuel cell system has some nitrous emissions, though I suspect the combustion engines are much worse. The nitrous emissions are complex and hard to handle. Amogy is still working on controlling that problem. Since it only happens in the process of splitting the ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen, it is probably doable. But it also adds another layer of technology to the Amogy setup which could seriously impact its operation the same way the regular car gasoline engine went from being a simple and reliable machine into a dual machine system where failure in the emission control system disables or seriously impacts the operation of the engine.

Japan is working on a plan to dilute their fossil fuels for generating electricity by adding a 20 percent component of ammonia. Eventually they want to increase it to a 50/50 mixture. This will extend the lifetime and use of coal fired plants all over Asia and anywhere else coal and fossil fuels are used to generate electricity. The US use of ethanol shows how little this strategy improves anything. This will create a situation where there will be no loss of power generation when switching from coal to a less polluting fuel and probably result in the continuing use of coal.

Japan uses around 1 million tons of ammonia per year for various non power related uses. Most of that is produced inside Japan. To achieve a country wide use of 20 percent ammonia mixture for all power generating fuels 10 years from now, Japan will have to increase it’s use of ammonia from around 1 million tons per year to 20 million tons a year. Japan won’t be the only country needing more ammonia.

The exceptional increase in demand for ammonia will only raise the price of it from a fertilizer based commodity to an internationally traded fuel that won’t have a cheap price tag. The farming industry will have to find another source of fertilizer as the price of ammonia becomes unaffordable for growing crops.

People will never stop using cement. The only thing that can be done is to contain the emissions at the source of manufacture. Ammonia has the same situation. Saudi Arabia is working on producing clean ammonia from their vast methane deposits and is setting up a global transport system for their replacement for fossil fuels. It could be said that ammonia is a carbon free fossil fuel. To make the cement or ammonia emissions at the point of manufacture, that requires a lot of energy. A requirement that Saudi Arabia can easily meet. But even the energy required to power that process can either be dirty or clean.

Perhaps Big Tech is not capable of creating solutions that don't need a lot of energy to make them work. Solutions that end up using more energy than they save and the savings exist only on paper based on future events that might never happen. Crypto, AI, Carbon Credits, Carbon Capture, Nuclear Energy, versus solar energy, wind power, geothermal power, and now there is Ammonia. Which side of the equation will it land on? Earth, Wind, and Fire, real basic natural forces, versus empty inventions that are full of broken promises for whatever anyone thinks can make a few short term bucks. Sounds like an epic comic book story. Something the money from the game of thorn bushes would have been better spent doing.
 
The (un)limited reality of solar energy

Every day, the sun’s rays send 173,000 terawatts of energy to Earth continuously, 10,000 times the amount used by all of humanity. Which is to say, the potential for solar energy is immense, and we’re nowhere near the limit.
That’s why solar energy is such an appealing prospect, particularly as an alternative to the fossil fuels that cause climate change. And over the past decade, solar energy technology has vastly improved in performance and plummeted in cost.

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Every day, the sun’s rays send 173,000 terawatts of energy to Earth continuously, 10,000 times the amount used by all of humanity. Which is to say, the potential for solar energy is immense, and we’re nowhere near the limit.
Be a little careful there; that statement is, I suspect, a little disingenuous. It might be 10,000 times the amount used by all humanity but I think I can safely say it is not 10,000 times the amount used by all the biology on the planet. I know this is a slightly silly argument but...if we used all the sun rays that fall on Earth for energy uses then all plant life on the planet would die! Now I know that, as I said, that's a bit silly but actually it's not that silly; anywhere solar farms are set up other than barren places like deserts (and even they mostly aren't as barren as they first appear) they are obscuring the sun from the vegetation underneath them.
 
I'm glad to have all you science nerdy types discussing this. I can understand the discussion but not the science to really add something to it.
 
Check energy returns:


and quantity:


The world needs increasing energy return and quantity each time due to increasing consumption of materials and energy per capita coupled with the effects of diminishing returns, or increasing amounts of energy to get decreasing amounts of materials each time.
 

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