New F1 Podcast - Undercutters

thaddeus6th

thaddeus6th

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Hey, kids.

I tend not to bang on about my F1 blog much because it's focused on betting, but I've recently started a podcast taking a more narrative, story of the season (and race, when we get to next year) approach. It should be fairly balanced, if sometimes sarcastic, because I don't have a favourite team/driver.

If you want a relaxing listen to recount a really interesting title fight then the first episode is out now.

Podbean: Undercutters - F1 Podcast | MorrisF1

Spotify: Undercutters - F1 Podcast

New addition: Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78

Or you can enjoy the script here, with about nine lovely graphs highlighting how the season changed in the title battles: F1 2024 Title Fight

(I'm in the process of adding more platforms for distribution but it does take a little time).

Undercutters_F1_Podcastsmaller.jpg
 
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First I want to say thank you for providing a script. I pretty much gave up on podcasts many moons ago. My reason is quite simple: I got sick and tired of people who speak a lot but actually say very little. That is not to say that you are guilty of such a heinous crime but just that I won't entertain any podcasts now so no offence is meant and I hope none is taken. I pretty much avoid Youtube for exactly the same thing. If for any reason I'm forced to seek information from a Youtube video, I spend most of my time shouting 'just get F***ing on with it!'

On to the script itself. I pretty much agree with your analysis - particularly on the timing gaps. I have no evidence to back this up but I do recall looking at timings when Alonso had qualified around about 11th or 12th and often I noticed that there was only about a half second between his position and the top three. One suggestion I'd make: there is plenty of analysis but not a lot of opinion. I think I'd like to see you put forward a point of view (for example) why you think there was such a gap between Perez and Verstappen. Was it some kind of psychological aberration? Do you think Perez is more sensitive to a car that is difficult to drive?....

Or perhaps something like this: You mention that strategic errors cost McLaren a few times but you don't really give an opinion on why you think that happened. Personally, I lean towards the school of thought that McLaren simply did not expect to be where they were and had not factored it into their season strategy. Also, I believe that winning regularly develops a certain mindset that can mean being better prepared to grab the next victory (particularly if it's an oportunistic one).

It feels a wee bit chronological right now (this happened and then that happened) and I think you need to put a little bit more of yourself out there.

That's not to say you haven't done a good job putting it all together. I think you have done well but there's always room for improvement.
And, of course, please feel free to completely reject my suggestions and tell me I'm talking out of my arse:)
 
Just to answer the strategic errors point: my view is that McLaren were playing things so safe they went too far and created problems for themselves, a bit like what happened in 2008 with Hamilton at the Brazilian Grand Prix. I think they never really got out of that defensive mindset. Ferrari did, to great effect with Leclerc's Monza win due to strategy (although Ferrari also failed when they should've boxed Sainz for fresh tyres in Abu Dhabi to try and stress Norris).

On Perez and that monstrous gap: I think the Red Bull was hard to drive and Perez got under the psychological kosh. Albon once said that it was so difficult to master and then when he got somewhere they made the car faster and even rougher to handle, but Verstappen could deal with it and go quicker. Spinning out and burning his clutch to DNF in... Qatar (I think) was a real low point.

I think there are probably a few rookie errors I made with this first one, probably including not quite enough opinion. For the second podcast I'm going to try having a much thinner script and doing it more spontaneously (with notes so I get stats/facts right).

Current plan is:
Ep2: battle for 6th (and quick rundown of Aston Martin, Williams, and Sauber)
Ep3: 10 Memorable Moments of 2024
Ep4: Driver Pairings (maybe how they stacked up in 2024, maybe looking ahead to 2025's new lineup).

Thanks for your feedback, it's very much appreciated :)
 
I thought you might find this article interesting. It's genrally about Lawson getting the Red Bull seat but the bit I'm meaning is when Albon explains how the car characteristics affected him when he was alongside Verstappen and how Verstappen coped better. He makes a good analogy with a mouse on a PC that helps us non F1 drivers understand what he's talking about.
www.planetf1.com

Liam Lawson 'driving style' declaration ahead of Max Verstappen Red Bull task

Liam Lawson feels he "understands" how the Red Bull drives, and believes the onus is on him to adapt as he succeeds Sergio Perez.
www.planetf1.com www.planetf1.com
 
Foxbat said:
I thought you might find this article interesting. It's genrally about Lawson getting the Red Bull seat but the bit I'm meaning is when Albon explains how the car characteristics affected him when he was alongside Verstappen and how Verstappen coped better. He makes a good analogy with a mouse on a PC that helps us non F1 drivers understand what he's talking about.
www.planetf1.com

Liam Lawson 'driving style' declaration ahead of Max Verstappen Red Bull task

Liam Lawson feels he "understands" how the Red Bull drives, and believes the onus is on him to adapt as he succeeds Sergio Perez.
www.planetf1.com www.planetf1.com
Click to expand...
I recall reading that article with Albon's explanation on how the car was like an overly sensitive PC/ controller. It was a great analogy, I thought! My brother played video games, Call of Duty specifically, with the sensitivity way up, and every time I picked up the controller to take over I'd be panning over so fast I'd miss every enemy and get shot down. No matter how much I tried to adapt to that sensitivity I could never match my brother's skill in it.

Also, thank you for the heads up and for providing links to your podcast! I will be giving it a listen.
 
Lawson certainly isn't lacking confidence. That's a good thing, but given how good drivers, not least Gasly, have struggled in the second seat he might come down to earth with a bump. It's one of many things that are fascinating to think about for next season.

dgackst said:
Also, thank you for the heads up and for providing links to your podcast! I will be giving it a listen.
Click to expand...

No worries, and thank you. Hoping to get episode 2 done before Christmas, looking at the midfield (it'll be brief rundowns of the solo finishers Aston Martin, Sauber, and Williams, with most of the time dedicated to Haas and RB, then Alpine, battling for sixth).
 
Awesome! The midfield has always been my favorite to follow. I've always been fascinated with the midfield even moreso than the front runners.
 
And here's episode 2 about the midfield battle, particularly the fight for 6th:

Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/undercutters-ep2-f1-2024-midfield-battle/

Spotify:

Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/b...cast-undercutters-ep2-f1-2024-midfield-battle



The transcript, plus some graphs, are also up here: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2024/12/undercutters-ep2-f1-2024-midfield.html

As I mention and will probably be apparent anyway, this is much less scripted. Let me know which style you prefer, if any.

Podcast is distributed to most platforms now, some take longer (mostly it's a question of 'push button and wait six minutes' but for some that may or may not be fruit-related it's more of a faff and takes longer).
 
I thought that was a pretty decent wrap up of those particular teams. My own views are fairly similar.

Haas did better than I was expecting this season and I thought Alpine made a good recovery from a very bad start in pre-season testing.

Sauber are an odd one. It's hard to figure out what is going on. When you consider that the team boss (Seidl) and COO (Hoffmann) were both trying their best to get rid of each other, only for both to be shown the door, you have to ask: was it leadership chaos that caused such a slump? Audi already fully own the Sauber team but have not yet changed name so it's difficult to put the poor performance and development down to lack of finance and resources with such an automotive giant behind it. The car was indeed slow but I think its improvement was probably severely hampered by a lack of direction through chaotic leadership and a focus on infighting. Who was making the development decisions early on when both men were busy trying to oust one another? Was the eye on the ball at all? Has everybody just given up until Audi rebrand and relaunch? In many ways, it seemed that the team was marking time, just there for whatever money was available (it's not just constructor points that earns cash but also based on placement...the bottom team earning around £45 million)

There's a table in this link
www.motorsportmagazine.com

F1 prize money: How much do GP teams and drivers really make?

Teams and drivers compete for giant prize funds across the F1 season, with the ability to earn millions extra through race-to-race bonuses. Here is a full breakdown of the estimated prize money up for grabs in 2024
www.motorsportmagazine.com www.motorsportmagazine.com

Binotto should make a difference next year, but will it be enough?

A word on Aston Martin. I think the numbers don't lie and development dropped away in the latter half (as it did the year previously). The team has recently completed a new wind tunnel (coming online sometime in early 2025) and a newly emplyed test driver (can't remember his name) who used to test for McLaren has stated that the new Aston Martin simulator is superior to McLaren's. If this simulator statement is true and allied to the wind tunnel, I wonder if either deliberately or inadvertently, in-season development has suffered due to resources being used elsewhere? It's hard to predict 2025 for this team but I suspect we might see a better in-season development programme now that the major infrastructure investment and construction appears to be entering its final phase.
 
Foxbat said:
I thought that was a pretty decent wrap up of those particular teams. My own views are fairly similar.

Haas did better than I was expecting this season and I thought Alpine made a good recovery from a very bad start in pre-season testing.

Sauber are an odd one. It's hard to figure out what is going on. When you consider that the team boss (Seidl) and COO (Hoffmann) were both trying their best to get rid of each other, only for both to be shown the door, you have to ask: was it leadership chaos that caused such a slump? Audi already fully own the Sauber team but have not yet changed name so it's difficult to put the poor performance and development down to lack of finance and resources with such an automotive giant behind it. The car was indeed slow but I think its improvement was probably severely hampered by a lack of direction through chaotic leadership and a focus on infighting. Who was making the development decisions early on when both men were busy trying to oust one another? Was the eye on the ball at all? Has everybody just given up until Audi rebrand and relaunch? In many ways, it seemed that the team was marking time, just there for whatever money was available (it's not just constructor points that earns cash but also based on placement...the bottom team earning around £45 million)

There's a table in this link
www.motorsportmagazine.com

F1 prize money: How much do GP teams and drivers really make?

Teams and drivers compete for giant prize funds across the F1 season, with the ability to earn millions extra through race-to-race bonuses. Here is a full breakdown of the estimated prize money up for grabs in 2024
www.motorsportmagazine.com www.motorsportmagazine.com

Binotto should make a difference next year, but will it be enough?

A word on Aston Martin. I think the numbers don't lie and development dropped away in the latter half (as it did the year previously). The team has recently completed a new wind tunnel (coming online sometime in early 2025) and a newly emplyed test driver (can't remember his name) who used to test for McLaren has stated that the new Aston Martin simulator is superior to McLaren's. If this simulator statement is true and allied to the wind tunnel, I wonder if either deliberately or inadvertently, in-season development has suffered due to resources being used elsewhere? It's hard to predict 2025 for this team but I suspect we might see a better in-season development programme now that the major infrastructure investment and construction appears to be entering its final phase.
Click to expand...
To be fair, if it's a tactic to shunt money to long term facilities over in-season development then it worked perfectly. They still got 5th, and now they've got better facilities which will see them set fair, especially with Newey on-board as their lead designer.
 
A couple of things that have me wondering.

I agree with you about McLaren tying itself in knots in Hungary but I hope they've learned a lot from this season and are better prepared to go for a title challenge in 2025. I think the pace of car development outstripped their ability to absorb and process racing as a team at the front end once more. I think that Norris and Piastri are so close on racing talent that this could become an explosive rivalry next year and become a real problem for the team to manage. Right now, I'd give Piastri the edge, mainly because he seems more emotionally mature on the race track.

On the subject of Lance Stroll....maybe I'm way off but I'm starting to suspect that he doesn't want to be in F1 (but feels trapped because daddy bought him a team). Perhaps his trip into the gravel wasn't so much an act of stupidity and more one of self-sabotage? A very convenient way to get out of what would probably be a very stressful race.
 
Really interesting comment on Piastri. I did, briefly, hold a similar view. I think he has a great mentality and wheel-to-wheel I'd take him over Norris. But when it comes to raw pace in qualifying and the race, Norris has the edge, sometimes by a large margin. The 20s or so Norris put on the rest at Singapore and Zandvoort in 2024 was not replicated anywhere, in any way, by Piastri. You're right that they're very closely matched (when I come to look at driver pairings these will be in the 'balanced' category. Unlike the Aston Martin lineup...).

I've heard, some time ago, Stroll was thinking of calling it a day before this season. In 2023 he was so crushed by Alonso some interviews were painful to watch. But if he does go, does his father too? Who gets the seat? Might hold on for 2026, the new regulations, and Newey having the time he needs to get to grips with things.
 
thaddeus6th said:
But if he does go, does his father too? Who gets the seat?
Click to expand...
Always interesting points to think over. I think Lawrence Stroll would probably stay. It's estimated that he has invested over $2billion in the new facilities for Aston Martin. That's a hell of a lot to walk away from. Conversely, it's also the case that the team's value has soared under his leadership so he could probably walk away with a tidy profit if he wanted to.

On Norris, I agree he can be blisteringly fast. I remember many years ago reading an interview with Zak Brown. Alonso was still with McLaren (they became firm friends and recently rented a track for a day of friendly racing). Norris was the promising youngster (I think 17 at the time) and Brown wanted to give him some experience of the higher categories (he also wanted to keep Alonso motivated at a time when the McLaren was terrible) so he entered them as a team in a 24 hour race (I think it was Daytona). When Alonso was driving, Norris kept pestering Brown about the times, wondering who was the faster of the two. Brown had to explain to him that Alonso was his team mate and he should be more bothered by the times of their nearest challengers. But I think that's the nature of a real racer. He wanted to put himself against a world champion even if he was his team mate.

Alonso was, by all accounts, massively impressed by his younger team mate that day. Of course Alonso might be impressed but he wasn't surprised because Norris drove for the Spaniard's Karting team (FA Alonso Kart) and won the championship in 2014.
 
I've put together a link hub for the various outlets: Undercutters Link Hub

Planning to put the next episode up the weekend after next (11-12th January). Not recorded but sort-of scripted, going to use the bulletpoint approach for each team to ensure I don't forget stuff (particularly given I had to research about a third of the grid).

Ton of rookies, especially if Doohan, Lawson, and Bearman count. Them, plus Antonelli, Bortoleto, and Hadjar, is a huge amount of fresh blood. Predicting who'll top each team often meant I went with the veteran, but there are a couple of teams that I think will be tighter. I'll save the detail for the podcast, of course. And there will be some lovely graphs, again.
 
F1: 2025 Driver Lineup Predictions podcast (Undercutters ep4) is up here:

Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-driver-lineup-predictions/

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0yBF7aqAxiLHQ68No95w4Y

Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/6edca4d8-68f8-4782-9898-2bfab4696c39/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-driver-lineup-predictions

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-driver-lineup-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000683150041

Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/01/undercutters-ep4-f1-2025-driver-lineup.html

I've reviewed every team pairing (70-80% of which are new this year) and picked who I think will end up on top in each team. That's not too difficult for, say, Aston Martin, but a few others are rather trickier. At the end, I ranked the lineups briefly, considering both drivers.

Hope it can prove a pleasant diversion amid the horrid weather.
 
F1 2025 Betting Odds (episode 5) is now live.

I do want to stress this is analysing the odds to try and work out, beyond the obvious, what the market thinks will happen rather than offering tips. As they have a vested financial interest in being right, and plenty of experience, this made a lot of sense to me, ahead of the season kicking off. And a spot of F1 news at the end. If you check the transcript, you might even find a very subtle graphical joke too.

Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-betting-odds/

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2PEmEA8CVnmRFGDjMZqS3N

Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/9ac187d3-b23b-48cc-ab51-87fa6c11c55e/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-betting-odds

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-betting-odds/id1786574257?i=1000684049358

Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/01/f1-2025-betting-odds-undercutters-ep5.html
 
I have to admit to never having placed a bet in my life but I used to work with a guy who regularly won big money on the horses. I asked him how he did it and he just shrugged and said he spent a lot of time studying the form. Here's where the problem lies in my opinion. If you have a very good horse, barring accidents, he's likely to remain a good horse (factoring in another year of age that might slow him down a little). In F1, having a bad car one season doesn't necessarily translate to a bad car for the next - or even from beginning to end of a season just as McLaren displayed in 24. Obviously the opposite also applies.

When it comes to drivers, I've always found it difficult to predict who will do well stepping up to F1. Yes there's a proving ground through the lower categories but F1 is a very different beast. Personally, I wouldn't write off any of the newbies and one or two might surprise us. The greatest pressure, I have no doubt, will be on Lawson and he may crumble under the pressure. Of course, he just might rise in spectacular fashion and at least come closer to Max than Checo ever did. It's just so hard to tell. If Lawson was 100 points or less behind Max at the end, I'd call that a successful season for him. If Antonili does well, I wouldn't be surprised if Ferrari showed some interest. There hasn't been an Italian world champion since Alberto Ascari in the 1950s. Imagine the sheer outpourings of joy in Italy if Ferrari managed to win the title with an Italian driver some time in the future?

The one thing the odds do tell us is that it should be another good year of racing. And, with that said, I think I'll just keep my money in my pocket:)
 
I would say there's less (but not zero) chance of nefarious naughtiness in F1 compared to most other sports.

Agree entirely on it being difficult forecasting how newcomers will do. And we've gone from practically no changes last time to six new rookies and two teams with entirely different lineups this year.

Honestly, it's almost always the sensible choice to not bet (and I write this as someone who bets every F1 season). But even if not interested in wagering, looking at the odds is one way to assess how the season might go.

I agree on the Lawson benchmark. Not getting destroyed will be the first goal, if he finishes in the same league (albeit foot of the table) as Verstappen that would be great. We'll see how Antonelli does. Mercedes clearly rates him very highly.
 
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