Was Joff really the target?

[MOUNTAIN THAT READS]

At the wedding Joff is drinking and drinking and drinking, but he doesn't start choking until he takes a bite of TYRION's pie. Now we know Littlefinger had a hand in the murder but who did he need dead more, Joff b/c he was a bad king or Tyrion who was married to Sansa who seems to be the key to Littlefinger's plans.

Bottomline: I think Littlefinger was actually trying to kill Tyrion, and got Joff instead. Since Joff died, Littlefinger just decided to play it off to Sansa that Joff was the target all along. Tyrion dying would have created just as big of a commotion at the feast and Sansa could have slipped away unnoticed. Since Tyrion was accused of murder anyway it was a win win.

Reason 1

Littlefinger really seems to have it in for our favorite noseless dwarf.

Reason 2

If the wine was poisoned he should have choked as soon as he drank it, as Cressen did when he tried to kill Mel. He didn't cough until right after the pie, and before he had more wine.

Reason 3

He can't do anything with Sansa until Tyrion dies b/c she's married.

Reason 4

No one loved Tyrion enough to ask for an autopsy. It would have just gone down as an unfortunate choking. Sansa would be his to do with free and clear.

"My uncle hasn't eated his pigeon pie." Holding the chalice one-handed , Joff jammed his other into Tyrion's pie. "It's ill luck not to eat the pie," he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. "See, it's good" Spitting flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. ASOS pgs829-830

Then he drinks coughs and dies, but he had wine before his little speach, Cressen died almost immediately.

I will be expecting your flames.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

At the wedding Joff is drinking and drinking and drinking, but he doesn't start choking until he takes a bite of TYRION's pie. Now we know Littlefinger had a hand in the murder but who did he need dead more, Joff b/c he was a bad king or Tyrion who was married to Sansa who seems to be the key to Littlefinger's plans.

Bottomline: I think Littlefinger was actually trying to kill Tyrion, and got Joff instead. Since Joff died, Littlefinger just decided to play it off to Sansa that Joff was the target all along. Tyrion dying would have created just as big of a commotion at the feast and Sansa could have slipped away unnoticed. Since Tyrion was accused of murder anyway it was a win win.

Reason 1

Littlefinger really seems to have it in for our favorite noseless dwarf.

Reason 2

If the wine was poisoned he should have choked as soon as he drank it, as Cressen did when he tried to kill Mel. He didn't cough until right after the pie, and before he had more wine.

Reason 3

He can't do anything with Sansa until Tyrion dies b/c she's married.

Reason 4

No one loved Tyrion enough to ask for an autopsy. It would have just gone down as an unfortunate choking. Sansa would be his to do with free and clear.

"My uncle hasn't eated his pigeon pie." Holding the chalice one-handed , Joff jammed his other into Tyrion's pie. "It's ill luck not to eat the pie," he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. "See, it's good" Spitting flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. ASOS pgs829-830

Then he drinks coughs and dies, but he had wine before his little speach, Cressen died almost immediately.

I will be expecting your flames.

First, let me go out on a limb and say no one is going to flame you over this. Its thoughtful and not overly-aggressive in dictating your thoughts to us.

That being said, I do disagree with you (but politely so) and heres my list of reasons why...

1) Lady Olenna (the Thorn Queen) had a hand in this poisoning. She has no discernible reason for wanting Tyrion dead. Someone can supply a rational reason and Ill listen though, I just cant think of one. As she was vying for Tywin for influence in the court, and the Dwarf was a distraction to the Lannisters I dont see it. Maybe subvert him and his intelligence but not kill him.

2) Tyrion is a member of the blood-royal. As such any crime against him will be investigated. To not do so will make the royal family appear weak and unable to defend a relative. What would the commoners think? And Tywin would definitely not let it slide. Regardless of how much he dislikes Tyrion he would see someone beheaded for killing his son, because it was a slight to his honor.

3) Sansa would be the prime suspect in any death to Tyrion. No way around that one, so Petyr would not kill the Dwarf to provide a distraction for her...

However I do like your interpretation of the timeline, it seems interesting. Maybe theres another reasoning behind it that Im not seeing right now. So let there be hope......

Im just waiting for Boaz or TK to chime in and disect everything Ive typed or Wert to explain the geneaology of the poison makers family.....


PS I wont be responding because Im getting on a plane to the States in 2 hours....woot for me.

 

[Boaz]

Interesting, MTR. I love it when people bring a new approach!

So you're throwing out Littlefinger's explanation regarding the hair net, Tyrion's conclusions about the wine, and Sansa's belief that Olenna Tyrell is the murderer.

I agree with Reason 1. Admittedly, Baelish does not like Tyrion. But there are many more people that he needs to get rid of before Tyrion, besides everyone hates Tyrion... he could just wait until Tyrion basically kills himself.

I don't kinow enough about the properties of poisons in Westeros to talk intelligently regarding the length of time for death to occur. Ask the guys over at CSI: King's Landing. I can't be for or against Reason 2, but it's interesting that he ate pie after drinking the wine.

I have to completely disagree with Reason 3. It was fairly well known that Tyrion and Sansa never consumated their marriage. If Littlefinger has the second or third best spy network in KL, I imagine he knew this.

As for Reason 4, no one loved Tyrion tis very true, but the public death of a former Hand, the Lord of Winterfell, the son of the current Hand, the sister of the Queen Regent, the brother of the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, and the uncle of the King at the King's own wedding feast should not be taken lightly. It would have come down to Tywin of course. I think he'd want the truth... a Lannister always pays his debts. I don't think he'd care about mutilating Tyrion's body with an autopsy.

That being said, I don't totally discount your ideas on the pie. If it was the pie, then it seems that Olenna should be discounted as the murderer. Then Baelish has a chef in the palace under his control. And more, because to get one poisoned pie out of a kitchen cooking for a thousand people and served to the exact person would take a conspiracy. I seem to recall that the last three kings have died through murder and conspiracy... and I seem to recall that Cersei named Ser Boros as King Tommen's food taster... and how hard is it to sneak a treat or a snack to an eight year old? I would not give a fig newton for Tommen's life, if you are right MTR.

PS - Aegon just beat me with his post.

PPS - Grats Aegon!

 

[Culhwch]

Maybe he just plain choked. Pycelle carries out the autopsy, finds a sliver of pigeon bone lodged in Joff's throat and, knowing that Tyrion would cop the blame - Tyrion, who had humiliated him so - he hid the proof and pointed to poison.

Not saying I believe this. Just putting it out there.

 

[TK-421]

Interesting...Interesting.....but a big NO!

Au contraire mon ami Aegon, I agree with you and Boaz that Tyrion could not have been the target. Why kill the object of loathing? They are such an easy target for kings and politicians alike. It's like one government killing the leader of another that it likes to rattle its sabre at and scare the bejeezus out of people. They don't do it lightly (please no flaming for that ).

Joff was destroying the kingdom and the Tyrells were power hungry. Simple as that.

And did Melissandre really poison Maester Cressen or did she use some magic to kill him? If it was poisoning, I imagine her coming from wherever she's from, she was able to get her hands on poison not found in Westeros.

 

[Winters_Sorrow]

And did Melissandre really poison Maester Cressen or did she use some magic to kill him? If it was poisoning, I imagine her coming from wherever she's from, she was able to get her hands on poison not found in Westeros.

Just as an aside, Maester Cressen poisoned himself. He used a poison known colloquially as the "Strangler" and tried to poison her. She drank the poisoned wine and gave the glass back to Maester Cressen, daring him to do the same, which he rather stupidly did. She probably used magic to survive it, but she didn't try anything as mundane as poison on anybody. Not when something flashy like corporeal animate shadow-beings or burning someone alive would do

I think the poison Cressen used was from the Free Cities if I remember correctly, though any Maester of Oldtown should know of/be able to get it as well.

I think it's an interesting theory and I'm not prepared to dismiss it out of hand. I think it's unlikely but Littlefinger wanted to get the Lannisters looking over their shoulder & get Sansa away in the commotion and used Oleanna to this effect. However, in Cressen's case, the poison was soluble in wine so I still think it was the wine which was poisoned and not the pie.

 

[ras'matroi]

I'm not really sure about this.

But did not the Quees of Thons gave Sansa the hair net with some inset stones she wore at the wedding and one of the stones was gone after Joff died?

I think the stones were dark purple and somwhere in the book was a really strong poison mentioned that had this color in dry form.
(probably it was the poison Maester Cressen used)

If so the Queen of Thorns it certainly involved.
She wanted Sansa (including the north) for her Grandson. If Tyrion would have married her all the north would have gone to the Lannisters.

(I'll check on the poison)

 

[MOUNTAIN THAT READS]

This may sound like a cop out but I really don't buy this theory either, but we have to talk about something.

Highgarden + Winterfell
Olena could want Tyrion dead, in order to free Sansa up for marriage to Wyllas. Littlefinger didn't have to tell her the plan was to spirit Sansa away to the Vale. Olena did invite Sansa to Highgarden even after she was married to Tyrion.

Castlery Rock + Winterfell
Would Tywin kill Sansa if he thought she killed Tyrion? Or would he kill someone else for it (then they wouldn't look weak to the mob) and try to marry Sansa to Lancel or one of the twins. Sansa is very valuable alive and dead she is worthless. (like Ned) Tywin is to cold to destroy the hopes of a northern alliance for vengence. Especially for a son he wishes he could prove wan't even his.

 

[ras'matroi]

Ok. I think I found it.


Maester Cressens poison:
(Right at the beginning of A Clash of Kings; 1st cha. )

The poison is called the strangeler and often used by faceless men, too (and in Assahai ! )
' They ( the crystals )shone like jewels in the candlelight, so purple that the maester found himself thinking that he had never truely seen the color before.'

'' Dissolved in wine, it would make the muscles of a man's Throat clench thighter than any fist, shutting off his windpipe. They said a victim's face turned a purple as the little christal seed from which his death was grown, but so too did a man choking on a morsel of food.''

The hair net:
( last Sansa chapter in A Clash of Kings)
Ser Dontos gave the net to Sansa. His answer when Sansa asks what stones are in the net:

'Black amethysts from Assahai. The rarest kind, a deep true purple by daylight.'

He says, too:
(to sansa holding the net in her hands)
'... It's magic, you see. It's justice you hold. It's vegance for your father. ... It's home.'
and that shee needs to wear it at the wedding feast.


The lost stone:
( The Sansa chapter after Joff died (p.274 paperback))
Sansa sees that the 'stone' is missing

''Why am I so scared, it's only an amethyst, a black amethyst from Assahai, no more than that. It must have been loose in the setting, that's all. It was loose and it fell out, and now it's lying somewhere in the throne room, or in the yard, unless ...''


Joff:

His face turned dark.
He drank wine out of the king's chalice before eating the pie and he drank some while he was alredy choking to clear his throat .


It kind of fits doesn't it?

 

[Young stormlord]

That is exactly what I wanted to post

And Ollena Tyrel is the killer. There are only 3 persons who touched Sansa's hairnet. Sansa, Ollena (queen of thorns) and Shae( who really couldn't do it)

 

[MOUNTAIN THAT READS]

AHHH but Cressen took a drink then almost instantly died. Joff took a drink made a speech had some pie then choked. The time frame is off. (of course I agree with all of you and think Olena poisoned Joff on pupose, but I thought Ned was the hero so I could be wrong, and we needed a new topic)

 

[ras'matroi]

I just saw that if the poison needs to be dissolved, and if it was that poison, it was in the chalice
and thus ment for Joff.
So It would support the idea that Joff was actually the target.
=> It depends on where the poison was to determine who was meant to be killed.
(We are back at the beginning )

 

[Culhwch]

Maybe Margaery was the target. She's just too prim and proper, someone wanted her dead.

 

[TK-421]

ADWD anyday now please!

 

[Funky Cthulu]

AHHH but Cressen took a drink then almost instantly died. Joff took a drink made a speech had some pie then choked. The time frame is off. (of course I agree with all of you and think Olena poisoned Joff on pupose, but I thought Ned was the hero so I could be wrong, and we needed a new topic)

But was the it the same poison that killed both men? I only have a passing knowledge of biology and chemistry, but I believe some poisons need to start to be digested (which would mean eating beforehand would slow the eventual death), and some take hold slowly, and kill over time (like the Tears of Lys ingested by Lord Arryn).
A lot of it hinges on the truthfulness and skill of the person who performed the autopsy, I guess. But it's probably best to operate on the presumption that what we've heard about his death is accurate, so far.

 

[Young stormlord]

AHHH but Cressen took a drink then almost instantly died. Joff took a drink made a speech had some pie then choked. The time frame is off. (of course I agree with all of you and think Olena poisoned Joff on pupose, but I thought Ned was the hero so I could be wrong, and we needed a new topic)

Cressen was alive long enough for Melisandra to say "He has a power here. And fire purifies" before Cressen died.

 

[Boaz]

Maybe he just plain choked. Pycelle carries out the autopsy, finds a sliver of pigeon bone lodged in Joff's throat and, knowing that Tyrion would cop the blame - Tyrion, who had humiliated him so - he hid the proof and pointed to poison.

Not saying I believe this. Just putting it out there.

Even with your new avatar, Cully, you are suggesting the authorities dispensed with real evidence to frame an innocent man? Tsk, tsk.

MTR, your tenacity in sticking with the larger political machinations and implications has me starting to doubt what GRRM has laid before our eyes. I don't yet believe your suggestions, but I'm going to post as if I do... maybe I'll convince myself.

First, we know that Littlefinger is a master of lies. He jumped on the dragonbone daggar story to implicate Tyrion when he knew neither of them had anything to do with it. Why would he not throw suspicion off of himself and onto Olenna? He knows stupid Sansa will believe anything.

Second, we assume (we think we know) that GRRM is a master of smoke and mirrors. The unmatched number of conspiracy theory threads on the Chronicles Network confirms this. No offense to any of the other posters on this thread, but your dogged (and commendable) defense of the obvious explanation that GRRM gives us only makes me think that he's given us a red herring. I don't think GRRM will change this plot line with Deus Ex Machina, I think he'll logically explain how Littlefinger lied.

Third, Tyrion has proven capable in using power, yet he's been consistantly irritating to Tywin. He grasps the overall picture of how to help Tywin, but constantly tries to grate on his nerves. Tywin might think that Lancel or a younger Lannister might be more open to heeding the Hand's wishes. Tywin also knows that when he passes, Tyrion could be a serious threat to Cersei and her children. Tyrion could be a very welcome scapegoat in Tywin's eyes.

Fourth, Tyrion keeps seeking clues for the truth. The last two hands found the truth and so had to be killed for it. Tyrion knew about the dragonbone blade. Tyrion was serving as Master of Coin at the time of his downfall. Was Tyrion about to uncover the lies of the last Master of Coin, aka Littlefinger? Was Littlefinger worried about Tyrion gaining too much power over him by learing too many of his secrets?

Fifth, Baelish buys people and then pays them with death. Littlefinger bought Lord Jon's squire, Hugh. Ser Hugh of the Vale promptly died an accidental death. Littlefinger bought Ser Dontos. Upon delivery of Sansa, Dontos was quickly murdered. According to this theory, a chef (and most likely a serving man/woman) was bought by Littlefinger, does anyone recall in AFFC of any servants of the Red Keep dying accidentally?

Incidentally, Littlefinger also bought Janos Slynt, but Slynt did not die because he was needed. And Littlefinger did not pay Slynt with his own money, he paid Slynt from the treasury, I assume.

Hmmm, I kinda like this theory of yours MTR. But like all the theories I like, it does not have any concrete facts to support it... I mean it all makes sense, conecturally speaking.

 

[Young stormlord]

Fifth, Baelish buys people and then pays them with death. Littlefinger bought Lord Jon's squire, Hugh. Ser Hugh of the Vale promptly died an accidental death. Littlefinger bought Ser Dontos. Upon delivery of Sansa, Dontos was quickly murdered. According to this theory, a chef (and most likely a serving man/woman) was bought by Littlefinger, does anyone recall in AFFC of any servants of the Red Keep dying accidentally?

The only servant dying I can recall was Cersei's servant Senella who was spy for Margery. Any1 else maybe? How about Tenna?

 

[TomServo]

AHHH but Cressen took a drink then almost instantly died. Joff took a drink made a speech had some pie then choked. The time frame is off.

Keep in mind that Cressen was a frail old man who could barely make it up and down the stairs on his own and Joffery was a strapping young lad. His constitution was probably able to hold off death just a little longer than Cressen's was, so a small time difference isn't much to go on.

 

[Young stormlord]

Cressen was alive long enough for Melisandra to say "He has a power here. And fire purifies" before he died. That is long enough for me.