Tyrion's Third - Littlefinger and subtlety.

[Boaz]

Another interesting passage in Tyrion’s third chapter of ASOS comes from page 265 of my US paperback. Tywin has dismissed the Small Council and is meeting privately with Cersei, Tyrion, and Kevan. Kevan speaks of Littlefinger and Tyrion responds.

“Only yesterday he brought us word of a Tyrell plot to spirit Sansa Stark off to Highgarden for a ‘visit,’ and there marry her to Lord Mace’s eldest son, Willas.”
“Littlefinger brought you word?” Tyrion leaned against the table. “Not our master of whisperers? How interesting.”

Tyrion is the only one to pick up on the importance of Littlefinger exposing the Tyrell plot.

How did Baelish find this out? Maybe he found out through his sources and told the Lannisters just to foil the Tyrells. This would have kept Sansa closer to him… and still available.

But I don’t believe it.

Littlefinger was not at Joffrey’s and Margaery’s wedding, yet he knew about Sansa’s hair net and how someone played with it. If he assisted Olenna in Joffrey’s death, why should he betray her plan to steal Sansa? Well, betraying Olenna would keep Sansa around for Littlefinger.

But I still don’t buy it.

I think Littlefinger and Olenna cooked up a plan to kill Joffrey, rid themselves of Tyrion, destabilize the Lannisters, and steal Sansa for Littlefinger.

The idea goes like this…

Olenna and Margaery befriend dim-witted Sansa and then ask her to marry sweet, gentle, noble, handsome Willas. Next, Littlefinger slips this information to Tywin. Tywin knows that he cannot just give Sansa (and the North) away for nothing… he knows he has to act fast. Since Robb is an outlaw and mayhaps not long for this earth, then Sansa is the key to the North. Marrying Sansa to a Lannister would thwart the Tyrells, give the Lannisters much prestige and power, and also give Tyrion something without giving him Casterly Rock. So Tyrion marries Sansa never suspecting that the Tyrells just placed the delivery of the poison right to Joffrey’s table… somehow if the poiston was ever found it’d be traced to Sansa and Tyrion. Next, Littlefinger arranges the dwarven jousters knowing that Tyrion will fit to be tied when Joff baits him. Next, Olenna murders Joff and frames Tyrion for it. Littlefinger steals Sansa.

The outcome is that the Tyrells marry Margaery to Tommen whom they believe they can control, Littlefinger secretly holds Sansa whom he believes he can control, and the Lannisters are deeply hurt. The Tyrells never planned to marry Sansa to Willas. Willas will inherit Highgarden, he does not need to go to Winterfell! But the Lannisters fell for it.

For me the kicker is across the page on 264.

“No,” said Tyrion, “I fear a trap. Littlefinger is subtle and ambitious. I do not trust him. Nor should you.”

That feels to me like the line in The Sixth Sense, “I see dead people.” The director thought everyone would understand what that really meant, but most of us (me included) missed that big clue.

Lord Tywin, Kevan, and Cersei seem to trust Littlefinger. He warned Ned not to trust him.

What do you think?

On the last page of Tyrion’s third chapter of ASOS on page 272 the following exchange takes place.

“Jeyne Westerling is her mother’s daughter,” said Lord Tywin, “and Robb Stark is his father’s son.”
“The Crag is not so far from Tarbeck Hall and Castamere,” Tyrion pointed out. “You’d think the Westerlings might have ridden past and seen the lesson there.”
“Mayhaps they have,” Lord Tywin said. “They are well aware of Castamere, I promise you.”
“Could the Westerlings and Spicers be such great fools as to believe the wolf can defeat the lion?”
“The greatest fools are ofttimes more clever than the men who laugh at them,” he (Tywin) said, and then, “You will mary Sansa Stark, Tyrion. And soon.”

The Westerlings and Spicers either were under instructions from Tywin when they sent Jeyne to “comfort” Robb or they immediately let Tywin know of that development so he could use it to his advantage.

Jeyne Westerling is her mother’s daughter. Lady Westerling seems to be an opportunistic and conniving woman.

Robb Stark is his father’s son. Eddard did not understand the nature of the game of thrones.

In AFFC, the Westerlings and Spicers are not only welcomed back into the King’s Peace, they are all rewarded for their service.

The greatest fools are ofttimes more clever than the men who laugh at them. Does Tywin think he is more clever than Littlefinger? Yes. Does he secretly laugh at Littlefinger’s ambitions? I think so. Ah…. I love foreshadowing... that last line seems like more of The Sixth Sense.

 

[viZion]

Hm, yes, I agree with everything here. Nice job piecing this all together. I started my reread of ASOS today. I'm only at about page 110 so this all gives me a lot to keep my eyes open for.

 

[TK-421]

Well, clearly Littlefinger and the Queen of Thorns are in cahouts together in the plan to kill Joff. The bit about Sansa is interesting and unfortunate for Tyrion, he could not do anything to stop himself from being condemned for the murder. Of course, Tywin and Cersei wouldn't listen to him. This is another case of Lannister pride, arrogance and stupidity. Yes, I think Tywin was actually stupider than people let on.

Furthermore, Littlefinger and the Queen of Thorns could not of acted alone. There needed to be a third partner in all this, especially in planning for the eventual downfall of the Lannisters and the rise of a new order. That third partner ir of course Varys and the plan to reinstate the Targaryen rule. They have 2 (possibly 3) Targ heirs to choose from, thus almost assuring victory?

 

[Boaz]

TK, so you're saying that Littlefinger and Olenna are also part of the pro-Targaryen conspiracy? It's definitely possible.

Littlefinger told Eddard that he is more subtle than Varys. He said that he is much more of a player than Varys.

Varys told Tyrion that he is much more subtle than Littlefinger. He said that he is only lets Littlefinger think he's fooling anyone.

Hmmm.

 

[TK-421]

Two masterminds fighting for the same cause. Something Littlefinger has also said about Cersei getting what she deserves. Could that malice be directed towards her mainly because she's a visible symbol of the Lannister usurpers? Or was it something more personal to do with the death of his beloved Catelyn?

There could be a rivalry between the two masterminds as Dany would reward those depending on how much each contributed to her coming to power.

My money's on Varys. Littlefinger's downfall is a once-naive little girl named Alayne (aka Sansa). Either she kills him (I like this scenario best) or he is killed/stripped of power because of her.

 

[MIDNIGHT]

Hmmmm lots of information here. I wish i could see the original post by Boaz while I'm typing my response. I'm bound to get something wrong.

Littlefinger and Olenna in a secret pro-Targ alliance ? If they are, I don't think the other knows it. Littlefinger always plays both sides of the coin, it helps his odds. Yes he and Olenna conspired and succeeded at murdering Joeffrey, but did Olenna conspire to let Little finger have the prize(Sansa). I can't see it. Sure Willas has no need to have Winterfell, put having a vacation property would sure be nice ( skiing, snowboarding,sledding, in the great white north sounds great). Yes Olenna wanted Sansa, but so did Littlefinger. Did he happen to overhear Oleena secretly planning on wedding Sansa to Willas? Nope. I would bet it was planned when Littlefinger was in Highgarden, making arrangements for Marg to marry Jeof. Winterfell would certainly sweaten the pot. Littlefinger used Olenna as he uses everyone else, and he certainly captured the prize, what exactly he plans on doing with her remains to be seen.

 

[viZion]

Littlefinger does seem to be the great wildcard but I think that's a good thing. Everything seems to be shaping up relatively well for the pro-Targaryen faction. It's almost becoming too easy. As much as I like the pro-Targaryen side, I don't think it would be in the spirit of the series for all their plans to come together so nicely and sweep aside all the usurpers. I'm sure GRRM will find more than a few ways to bring them down a few notches and make their current seemingly inevitable victory a bit more of a nail-biter.

 

[Boaz]

I wish i could see the original post by Boaz while I'm typing my response. I'm bound to get something wrong.

What makes you think I got it right? Wordiness?

Regarding Sansa... Mayhaps Olenna thought she would be easily turned as a witness for the prosecution. "I'm a ward of the crown. I don't have money to afford jewelry or poison. The Imp told me to wear the hairnet or he'd give me to his guards... just like he did with his first wife!"

Yeah, the sticking point for you guys (and for me too) is that Littlefinger has been portrayed as the most selfish, ambitious, faithless, ruthless, and opportunistic character in ASOIAF.

We do know that ASOIAF is somewhat inspired by England's War of the Roses. York (Stark) and Lancaster (Lannister) fought a series of battles (over a number of years with many noble houses switching sides) on an island (that roughly looks like Westeros). I know we cannot say that Robert Baratheon = Henry VI or that the Martell-Tyrell fued = the Percy-Neville fued. We can guess that Tywin Lannister = Richard Neville, the Kingmaker. We can guess that Richard III = Tyrion Lannister. We can guess that either Dany or Jon will eventually be Henry VII. But who is Littlefinger? Does he have an historical counterpart? Will he be Richard III?

 

[MIDNIGHT]

Actually I thought you were misdirected, on the right path, but slightly off coarse. If I thought you were right........I'd better leave that alone !

 

[JDP]

Wow, that first post is a lot of food for thought, Boaz; nice work. I've only read the series through once and don't have the books, but here are my unordered thoughts:

Littlefinger & Olenna in cahoots: Definitely, but only for Joffrey's assassination, I think, not a Targ coup.

Sansa: Ha, ha, I loved the turn of phrase 'dim-witted Sansa'; you hit the nail on the head there. I'd say something nasty's gonna happen to her to harden her up, and then we're gonna see a whole new side to her (a game-of-thronesy side). I think Littlefinger may have said something like 'You must find out what a man wants, and then you may use it against him' to her. I think that this is exactly what she's gonna do to him as he seems to see something of Cat in her. I dislike Sansa intensely, but I think a change is imminent; GRRM has little time for naiveté in his characters.

Littlefinger: Yes, he is certainly the most wily of the throners; I'd put he and Varys on a par. As stated above, I think his one weakness is his obsession with all things Cat (and hence Sansa).

 

[viZion]

Sansa: Ha, ha, I loved the turn of phrase 'dim-witted Sansa'; you hit the nail on the head there. I'd say something nasty's gonna happen to her to harden her up, and then we're gonna see a whole new side to her (a game-of-thronesy side).

Pretty much everything that's happened to her has been pretty nasty. From having her wolf and her father killed to suffering domestic abuse at the hands of Joffrey to being kidnapped by Littlefinger. But apparently she turns over a new leaf in AFFC and starts becoming the major player you're describing. I'm actually looking forward to getting back to AFFC since it didn't really stick very well with me the first time through.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

No no no....wait....no no no....

There is no Olenna/LF Pro-Targ alliance.....heres my reasons why

1. The Tyrells are now in a position to be the family of Kings. Thats the reason Joffrey was killed, so they could influence Tommen. Its not to destabilize the realm but to put a more tractable Tommen in place.

2. There is too much influence lost in going back to being stewards. Margy is cozening up nicely with Tommen and the Tyrells are working to remove Lannister influence. If they were pro-Targ they would be attempting to increase Cersei's influence so a popular groundswell for Dany could take place.

3. If Olenna had wanted the realm destabilized for Dany's return she would have left Joffrey on the throne and moved Loras out of town and ensured Tywins death. Joffrey would have run amok like he was want to and Loras wouldnt have chopped his head off for assaulting Margy down the road.

4. Littlefinger is carving himself a nice niche. He is Defender of the Vale and in position to unite his power base with the shards of the north. Why would he worry about Sansa's marriage situation if he wasnt craving power. He would make sweet love to her as his fricking wierdo-loveboi fascination thingy played out while maintaining his hold on the Vale and make overtures to the North.

5. Littlefinger is a closet-Littlefinger supporter...nothing else fits.

 

[TK-421]

Don't listen to him...

He's had his head in the sand in some desert over this Tyrell=Targ loyalist idea for a while.

 

[Boaz]

Littlefinger is in the closet?

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Well....to add to the argument....

In AFFC Petyr is talking to Sansa about plots and fruits ripening at a measured pace and sometimes he has to pluck them from the vine early and what not....but then he says something about the rule of 5 kings saw a lot of plans come to fruition but then adds that the rule of 3 queens would see that come to naught or something along those lines...

The key is the 3 queens...which 3 is he referring to...

Originally I thought he meant Cersei Margy and Myrcella...but upon rereading I realize he probably doesnt have enough time to have heard about the aborted Myrcella crowning....

So Cersei is one...but the others are?

I figured that it would be in reference to Olenna (Queen of Thorns), except if shes a queen then Margy most likely wouldnt be considered one in his little wordplay...if Olenna rules then she's ruling through Margy and thus that still only accounts for two queens.

So that leaves Melisandre and Dany. Im gonna just toss Melisandre out as a possibility because I dont want to acknowledge her right now....

So if he's hatching plans that Dany could possibly ruin, that means he's operating outside her sphere of influence but realizes she could be coming his way soon. That means most likely his hatching his own schemes which may or may not benefit Dany but will benifit Littlefinger when Dany comes. So he could be gathering the shards of the North and the Vale to lay at Dany's feet when she comes across. Which would cement his position as Protector of the Vale, make him Danys preeminent councilor and probably secure him one of those Warden posts if they were still instituted.

 

[TK-421]

Your points on Littlefinger are good and it seems likely scenario, unfortunately, I am of the opinion that even a mastermind like Littlefinger can have a blind spot. His just happens to be a pretty young girl.

However, you never addressed the point about the Tyrells.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Actually I did address the Tyrell portion of the "Great Targaryen Conspiracy" in the earlier post...allow me to quote myself.

1. The Tyrells are now in a position to be the family of Kings. Thats the reason Joffrey was killed, so they could influence Tommen. Its not to destabilize the realm but to put a more tractable Tommen in place.

2. There is too much influence lost in going back to being stewards. Margy is cozening up nicely with Tommen and the Tyrells are working to remove Lannister influence. If they were pro-Targ they would be attempting to increase Cersei's influence so a popular groundswell for Dany could take place.

3. If Olenna had wanted the realm destabilized for Dany's return she would have left Joffrey on the throne and moved Loras out of town and ensured Tywins death. Joffrey would have run amok like he was want to and Loras wouldnt have chopped his head off for assaulting Margy down the road.

Unless theres something else Im missing...

On another note...LF betrayed Olenna in her attempt to move Sansa because he wanted Sansa for himself. He couldnt move her out of Highgarden like he could Kings Landing. Theres no masterminding plot that kept her in KL to carry the poison. Anyone would have sufficed Im sure. She was just the easiest and most manipulated target. Poor dim-witted Sansa.

 

[MIDNIGHT]

Aeg couldn't have put that any better. Completely correct !!

 

[Boaz]

Olenna, Dany, and Mel?

The so called War of the Five Kings featred males who were proclaimed as kings. Renly, Stannis, Joffrey, Robb, and Balon... toss Tommen and Euron into that mix also.

Of Olenna, Dany, and Mel... only Dany has been proclaimed a queen.

Olenna's nickname could qualify her, but I really don't think this fits. Olenna may be the GRRM's version of Richard Neville, the Kingmaker, but at the end of the day she's only grandmother to a queen.

Melisandre is the power behind the throne, she's not the queen... mayhaps if her nickname was Queen of Flames or something... so I think Mel is out.

What about Asha? Will she bow to Euron? As of AFFC, it appears that she has not yet submitted to Euron's rule. But would Littlefinger know this?

What about Arianne? Did she completely miss her window of opportunity? If the Sand Snakes somehow got free, they'd like to overthrow Doran and crown Arianne. But Doran seems to have Dorne under control and on it's way to supporting Dany.

Unless Jon marries and proclaims himself as King in the North, then Val is out. But Littlefinger probably does not know that much about Jon's situation.

I don't know how much Littlefinger knows about the current political situation in KL. Both Cersei and Marg are prisoners of the High Septon.

I think one queen is Dany. I think another is the controller of Tommen, the Lannister claim, and the Iron Throne... i.e. whoever wins the Cersei-Margaery struggle. I think it should be Margaery, but it's hard to imagine ASOIAF without Cersei... and for that reason alone, I think Cersei will come out her current predicament with some power and a part to play.

I think the third queen is Sansa.

Littlefinger has told her of the game of thrones. He's spoken of the thrill. He's shown her the stakes. And Sansa is a highly important person. Baelish is not training her to be his assistant. No, she's his meal ticket. He has not treated her like Joffrey, Cersei, nor Tyrion... i.e. he's not tortured her, lied to her, nor attempted to bed her... yet.

Sansa's claims are not immediate, but they are there. She fits prominently into a number of successions. She is the de facto heir of the North... that is if Bran and Rickon never surface. Barring a son born to Roslyn Tully and a return of Bran and Rickon, I think Sansa is considered as heir of Riverrun. As Tyrion's wife, she is heir to Casterly Rock... barring action by the throne, of course. And if she marries Robert or Harry the heir, she could be the Lady of the Vale. Or if Petyr, as Lord Paramount of the Trident, married her, then she'd be the Lady of the Riverlands. Count 'em, that's four of the seven kingdoms!

Baelish is not telling Sansa how to play just to let her be a minor player. No, he plans on using her prominently.

Cersei/Margaery, Dany, and Sansa. The War of the Three Queens.

 

[Raul]

Robb Stark is his father son! Genious, Boaz! I never thinked of it this way, but now is obvious that Westerling's pushed Jeyne into Robb's bed by Tywin's plan, maybe she's bitch (witch) mother even put some spanish fly into poor boys wine cup before sended her sexy hot daughter to "comfort" him. They knew that Robb will marry her like his father would have done same situation.
Thus ended up with Red Wedding, and Robb lost his head like his father. So simple, I should have figured it out myself lon time ago.