Where is Everybody? Fifty solutions to the Fermi Paradox, by Stephen Webb

I can't see anyone sending a generation ship until robot probes have identified a suitable planet. There will then be a debate about the ethics of taking over a planet which, if suitable for humans, will almost certainly already have life.

I'm not sure that generation ships make much sense anyway, because of the vast size and resources required, plus the worries already covered in SF about what could happen to the social organisation of the ship by the time it arrives. A ship transporting frozen embryos, as already suggested, would be the most efficient way of "seeding" a planet, with a few crew who would perhaps travel in frozen sleep themselves, if that becomes possible.
 
On the subject of generation ships.

Again, basing the following on my earlier SciAm article. Assuming that, within 1000 years, humans can make starships capable of travelling at 0.1c, and assuming 10 years to accelerate to that speed, plus another 10 years to decelerate back down, then...

A journey to the closest star (apart from Sol) would be to Alpha Centauri at 4.5 light years. This would take 55 years.

Tau Ceti is an Sol-type star just under 12 light years away. Under the same assumptions, it would take 130 years.

Extend the time frame for the voyage to 200 years, and humanity has access to a hundred star systems. Go to a thousand years, and we have access to literally tens of thousands. I think that, within 10,000 years, our species could well have colonised hundreds of thousands of other star systems.

Over a sufficiently large time frame, the fact that light speed cannot be exceeded will not stop humanity, or some hypothetical alien civilisation, from colonising the galaxy.
 
I don't think you all have really heard what I have been saying so far.


Why do you all assume that ET is going to bother to "colonize" a bunch of useless star systems with nothing in them, when the fifth dimension or 29th dimension or whatever is SO much COOLER!

We are children or not even, ants really, when it comes to our view of the universe and reality and whatever else.


Aliens are not going to think like us. They are going to think nothing like us. Logic and mathematics might be the only common ground we have at all, and our understanding of those might be so woefully incomplete as to make us not worth bothering with. Our brains are barely able to conceive of non-linear causation let alone think in those terms. We, as society, still look at the universe and greater reality with a "human-centric" view of things.


Looking for evidence of gods (which is what the difference of several thousand or heaven forbid million or billion years amounts to) is ludicrous on its face, and if that isn't immediately obvious to you, then I don't really know what to tell you.


Perhaps we will find the remains of civilizations of 500 year differences (or so) from back when they stomped around the galaxy. Perhaps we will find such a civilization that is currently active.


But right now we live in an isolated sector of space, playing in the universe's equivalent of the children's sandbox. Adults don't play in the children's sandbox at playgrounds. Adults that do that end up stepping on children if they aren't careful. Responsible adults don't want to have to deal with the consequences of a mistep. And irresponsible adults are going to leave enough traces (read conquest or galactic mistakes) as to get in trouble with the responsible adults.



We are Not ready.

MTF
 
On the subject of generation ships.

Again, basing the following on my earlier SciAm article. Assuming that, within 1000 years, humans can make starships capable of travelling at 0.1c, and assuming 10 years to accelerate to that speed, plus another 10 years to decelerate back down, then...

A journey to the closest star (apart from Sol) would be to Alpha Centauri at 4.5 light years. This would take 55 years.

Tau Ceti is an Sol-type star just under 12 light years away. Under the same assumptions, it would take 130 years.

Extend the time frame for the voyage to 200 years, and humanity has access to a hundred star systems. Go to a thousand years, and we have access to literally tens of thousands. I think that, within 10,000 years, our species could well have colonised hundreds of thousands of other star systems.

Over a sufficiently large time frame, the fact that light speed cannot be exceeded will not stop humanity, or some hypothetical alien civilisation, from colonising the galaxy.
I don't think that you're considering the psychological and cultural effects of multi-generation ships. 200 years is 8 generations, brought up entirely within the relatively tiny confines of a ship. After the first couple of generations, there will be no-one alive who ever walked on Earth - they will only have films and fables to go on. What kind of shifts in culture will there be? Will they come to doubt the reality of Earth, and regard it as a fairy story? When they arrive at the target planet, will they have any interest in leaving the safety of their ship, which is all they've ever known? (I expect that agorophobia would be a major problem).

Issues like these have been dealt with several times in SF stories, which sometimes shows the crew descending into savagery. The fact is, no-one knows what would happen to them, brought up in such an environment for generation after generation.
 
Aliens are not going to think like us. They are going to think nothing like us. Logic and mathematics might be the only common ground we have at all.

even if logic and mathematics are the only common ground (although I would expect physics and chemistry to be in the mix as well) it doesn't take a genius to work out that a planet has a finite amount of living space and isn't the most stable of places to live (99% of all species that have ever lived on Earth have been made extinct due to everything from meteor impacts through volcanic activity to climactic change) and will know that their only hope for species survival is to put some of their eggs in a different basket (colonise another planet)

Looking for evidence of gods (which is what the difference of several thousand or heaven forbid million or billion years amounts to) is ludicrous on its face, and if that isn't immediately obvious to you, then I don't really know what to tell you.

no-one is looking for evidence of gods, but if a technologically primitive civilisation of our past was visited by an advanced civilisation from another star system, the accounts of that meeting (from the primitive view point) would read pretty much like most of the early religious texts.
if it is ludicrous to look for the origins of the myths and legends then, by that logic, it is also ludicrous to research our past in any way.

it is ludicrous to say that if we were visited there would be some evidence and the dismiss out of hand any and everything that could be that evidence.

even the creation described in Genesis could be interpreted as alien intervention given that ET could clone himself (create man in his own image) then take another tissue sample, remove the Y chromosome and replace it with a duplicated X chromosome to give male and female of the species.

NOTE I am not saying that this is what happened, but I find it interesting that several thousand years ago technologically primitive man described something that has only recently been found to be possible.
this doesn't mean that everything in all ancient texts should be taken as 100% true (owing to translation errors and a game of chinese whispers stretching over millenia) but as some historians and archaeologists have discovered, many myths and legends have some basis in fact.
the Illiad and the Odyssy talk of a city/state called Troy and an archaeologist followed the directions and found the remains of a city in the right place. this could be a coincidence or it could be that there was a Trojan war and the stories were basically true with some embelishments added through retelling. take WW2 as an example. we know it happened and that there are many interesting and exciting things that did happen, but the popular image we have of WW2 today is from films like Saving Private Ryan where the setting and the main events are real but the personal story is fictitious. just because there was no Private Ryan doesn't make WW2 fiction.
another interesting find made after following the directions from a myth was that when the course plotted in the story of Jason and the Argonauts is followed it leads to an area where fleeces are thrown into a river to collect gold dust then hung on a tree to dry. much of the story is embellishment but there is a grain of truth behind it.
the question this raises is are there similar grains of truth in any other myths, legends or religious texts?
if we follow this question to its conclusion we get the question what inspired so many ancient peoples around the world to write accounts of visitors from the stars?
if those accounts have some factual basis then the chances are that we have been visited but the evidence we have for it is being overlooked due to a polarisation regarding those texts (those that follow them as religious texts don't want a mundane explanation of the events described and those that don't believe class them as superstition and unworthy of research) and the embellishments and mistakes added over the years.
 
Urlik what you are describing isn't impossible. And I am glad that you are keeping an open mind.


But please keep in mind the distinction I am drawing here. Technological advantage is an exponential difference. A civilization within 500 years of what we are now is conceivably detectable. It may very well be something accounted for in some of the older mythologies and legends. But what I am talking about is something a little different.


Civilizations within the range of detectability (something close relatively speaking to what we have and can conceive of now) might very well be allowed to visit primitive planets. But there is no way they would continue doing so now without trying to go undetected; that's dangerous for a variety of possible reasons (some of which is undoubtedly correct assuming they are even still interested in our sector of space; which they may not be).

That doesn't touch on a civilization a 1,000 years or more advanced on us from what we have now. That kind of technology is so far beyond us as to be beyond our wildest dreams. String manipulation? We are talking about gods Urlik; no other name really suffices for our conception. Practical string manipulation and you could reshape any particle, energy, space, time, or anything into whatever you wanted. Every wondered what happens when you convert matter into time and then shunt it across space? Probably not (I certainly haven't), but such a race could do it for all that that means anything to us now. And such a race wouldn't be able to be detected by us unless they forced us to.


MTF
 
I think that while string theory is the best hope for a Grand Unified Theory that ties Newton's Gravitational theories in with Relativity, we still don't have any way of really comprehending it fully.

we don't know if the extra 6 or more dimensions work the same as our 3 spatial dimensions or whether they are more like time or even Einstein's SpaceTime.

we can't assume that a civilisation even a billion years more advanced than us is able to operate in more dimensions than us unless they originated as pan dimensional beings.
the reasons for this are many.
let us imagine a 2 dimensional being (with dimensions along the x and y axis) living on a flat plane (with dimensions along the x and y axis)
what possible tool or instrument could the 2 dimensional being create to manipulate an oblect along the z axis that he can't even observe directly (even if he can deduce its existence through indirect observation)?

if there are pan dimensional beings then their tech level is irrelevent as no matter how far advanced or not they are, they started out with the ability to operate in more than 3 spatial dimensions.
if they aren't pan dimensional (and for the purposes of this thread they aren't as we are dealing with "life as we know it Jim") then even if they are aware of other dimensions (through indirect observation) it is probably impossible for them to create tools to manipulate more dimensions than those they can interact with directly.

Civilizations within the range of detectability (something close relatively speaking to what we have and can conceive of now) might very well be allowed to visit primitive planets.
allowed by whom?
if our history had taken a slightly different route and the Mongols had subjugated the world but technology had advanced a little faster, who would tell the Great Khan that his ships couldn't visit a primitive planet or even one as advanced as ours (ours being the most advanced we have definite knowledge of)?
the cosmos doesn't have a police force or army setting up blockades and border controls, so who gives this assumed permission?
 
I feel like saying: "Gort help us!"

Even if there are "rules", that does not mean that they would be obeyed. (We have International rules here on Earth, and most if not all countries have broken at least some of them, even countries with little or no apparent power; and that's without considering individuals and groups who operate outside their country's laws.)

If there are rules, rules that can be enforced, we are really talking about a single political entity, however many species and civilisations there are under its laws. A political entity which is that powerful has no need to obey its own rules all the time. (Who is going to force it to?) Unless, that is, we think that a state with very advanced technology is bound to be populated wholly by beings who are totally virtuous.
 
Here's an interesting thought:

Life started on Earth millions of years ago. Why, during that time, hasn't life started again? Why no second chain of evolution?

Possibilities:

1) The start of life is such a rare event that it only happens once in millions of years.

2) The conditions for the start of life no longer exist here.

3) It has started again but we haven't noticed.

Any others?

We are so busy looking for life elsewhere that we don't seem to wonder why it hasn't happened again - here. Surely, life starting once shouldn't preclude it starting again - so why hasn't it? The answer may help us understand why we aren't seeing it elsewhere.
 
IMHO, #2 includes the 'founder effect', here 'winner takes it all'...
 
I'd guess at 2 or 3

maybe some of the new bacteria and viruses are the result of life starting again rather than mutation
 
It's hard to say, Mosaix.

Just a few thoughts:

One of the things life seems to do is alter its environment, which might help to stop new life creation. Life also adapts, which might mean that an organism more or less perfectly adapted to where it lives would have an immense advantage against a newly created one. (It strikes me that this might not necessarily lead to the complete destruction of any new life.)

It may be that in the range of conditions found on the Earth, the types of possible new life might be quite narrow. This might mean that life did start more than once, but that we would be unable to tell which was which because, say, they all use the same sort of biochemistry. (Later changes to the Earth's environment might have put a stop to this process.)

It may be that life has very strict biochemical rules, so that however varied the environment, it might appear to have the same genesis. (And if the environment could not support that type of genesis, there would be no new life.)


I don't know how far back scientist can "look" when they examine DNA to look for historical changes and the rate of change. I'd imagine it all gets rather confusing as you go back and (hopefully) approach the genetic ancestor. And if all the various new forms of life evolve, there may be a degree of convergent genetic evolution, further blurring the distinctions between what were independently generated genetic lines.


So we either need a time machine or a long chat with a species that has access to records that go back that far.
 
To mantimeforgot

When you take the tack you have, you are going way out into woowoo land. A highly advanced civilisation still has to work within the laws of physics. Sure, they will develop all sorts of tricky ways of using the laws of physics, possibly including some laws that we have not discovered yet. However, their technology will be limited by those laws, just as ours is. For example : they are seriously unlikely to be able to travel faster than light. They will drink their fluids from cups or some variation on the cup or bottle theme.

They will probably not be able to move to other universes, or through extra dimensions. There is no known theoretical means by which such can be achieved. While this does not mean that a method may not be discovered, it certainly reduces the likelihood. When speculating, better to stick to known scientific theory than to enter the world of magic and fantasy.

Anthony
Re the psychology of generation ships. I think you may be denigrating the human ability to adapt. There is no animal that is as plain adaptable as Homo sapiens. And that is especially true of social adaptation. Put a bunch of chimps together in a crowded space and there will be massive violence. Yet 100,000 humans can crowd together in a sports stadium, under conditions of incredible emotional outpourings, yelling at the top of their voices with sheer passion, and if accidentally banged on the head by another person's waving arms, will accept a simple "sorry" and continue with no violence.

We stand in en elevator so crowded that we cannot lift our arms, and accept it with equanimity. Humans are really amazingly good at social adaptation. I have no doubt at all that, with a bit of good ship design aimed at releasing social tension, any number of generations could live aboard a generation ship, and get along well.

I do have a bit of a twist on this, though, compared to standard SF stories. I think that the adaptation may go too far. If a few thousand people live on a generation ship for 10 generations, then when they get to their destination, they may not be real happy about going down to live on a planet, especially if said planet is not comfortably habitable. I think that they may end up building habitats in space to live in. After all, assuming fusion power, and unlimited minerals and water on asteroids, comets and small moons, there will be plenty of resources to do just that. It would not surprise me if humanity in the medium distant future did not, as a majority, become 'space dwellers'.

Instead of a Dyson sphere, star colonies may take the form of millions of space cities - enormous rotating cylinders in stellar orbit, each with an outer shell of water ice for radiation protection and as a resource for normal use. Indeed, with fusion power, such habitats or cities need not hug the star - but cruise through the stellar equivalent of Oort Clouds, collecting essential resources.

Once humanity leaves the solar system, they may find that the galaxy is an enormous resource filled space, capable of supporting enormous numbers of humans in a state of high civilisation with a standard of living we cannot even dream about today.

Which again begs the question : with 10% of the star systems in this galaxy 2 to 3 billion years older than ours, why is the galaxy not already filled with such a civilisation, or civilisations?
 
Which again begs the question : with 10% of the star systems in this galaxy 2 to 3 billion years older than ours, why is the galaxy not already filled with such a civilisation, or civilisations?

I did briefly cover that in an earlier post

after having a bit of a read, it appears that many of the older stars aren't metal rich like the Sun and are unlikely to have formed accretion disks.
the majority of these older stars also occupy a region close to the Galactic Hub and would be heavily dosed with radiation.
if this is the case, then stars capable of forming Earth like planets are likely to be among the younger stars like our Sun.
this would reduce the head start of any potential ETIs in colonising/exploring the galaxy.
although that last line should have read "reduce the head start of many potential ETIs in colonising/exploring the galaxy"

other factors to take into consideration are all those surrounding evolution.
if the planet is too stable it might never develope higher life forms as the conditions won't generate the necessery impetus for evolution. although the planet would be included within the percentage of planets capable of supporting life, evolution might never get off the first rung or might take billions of years longer than it has on Earth.
one example of this is HSP90 (a heat shock protein)
it's main function is as a chaperone to ensure that other proteins fold correctly, masking mutations and variations within the protein, but when streesed, instead of assisting in protein folding, HSP90 protects the cell from the elevated temperatures.
this allows the previously masked mutations and variations to be expressed.
this is one of the ways in which evolution gets to "try out new ideas" and see which could work for an unprecidented environment and seeing how they compete against others within that environment for resources.
if the environment is stable then proteins like HSP90 do the job of chaperone and mutation/variation is suppressed.
 
To Urlik

That is a nice intelligent post. Good to see someone with a bit of thought.

Couple of comments.
First, when I talk of 10% of the galaxy being 2 to 3 billion years older than our own star system, I mean third generation stars. That means that any planets they have should be reasonably metal rich.

I agree with your other ideas, in that we do not know what characteristics of a planetary system are required for evolved life, though I think it is more likely that stability is needed for life's development - rather than the instability you mention.

Here on Earth, we have some special features that might be needed.
For example : we have a nearly circular orbit - whereas most extrasolar planets have a much more elliptical orbit, that should lead to climatic extremes - possibly too extreme for life. Liquid water is probably essential for life, and a stable climate means liquid water is always available.

We have a massive moon - unique in our own system - that stabilises through its gravity the Earth's 'wobble', thus leading to an even more steady climate.

We have plate tectonics, permitting formation of land structures that might be needed for life. One theory is that life began in hot springs. If so, planets without plate tectonics, vulcanism, and hot springs, could not generate life. Mars, for example, does not show plate tectonics.

We have no large planets close to the sun, but one further out (Jupiter) in exactly the position needed to 'sweep' up debris, and reduce very dramatically the number of damaging asteroid impacts on our planet.

Our planet has exactly the correct magnetic field for shielding us from cosmic rays.

There may be many, many other requirements for life, making Earth nearly unique.
 
Good to see someone with a bit of thought.

That's a little unfair. I think everyone's put thought into their posts. None of us can be expected to be absolute experts on all the topics involved in this discussion, and I don't think that should preclude anyone from having their two cents.
 
Ursa:

Unless, that is, we think that a state with very advanced technology is bound to be populated wholly by beings who are totally virtuous

Yeah right.

We don't even give that quality to our own imagined deities so why would real "extra terrestial gods*" be expected to act that way

*gods in the sense they would appear that way to us. Just as western technology appeared that way to remote civilisations in the 'way back when' times
 
Sceptical:

You certainly have quite the conceited notion about our understanding of the universe or even greater reality.

Ask any honest scientist and you will learn that what we know about the universe is so far eclipsed by what we don't know that if you divided what we do know by what we don't you get ZERO.


Alien technology of 500 years advanced is (given the median estimate of two-fold increase in technological ability every 10 years) a 1,125,899,906,842,624 (that's 1 quadrillion for ease of reading) fold increase in technological ability. A difference of that magnitude is completely incomprehensible to us. Anyone who seriously thinks that ET's technology is going to be anything other than magic to us is so arrogant and human-centric as to be living in a state of complete ignorance.


TEIN hit the nail on the head: gods is what they would appear to us to be; as our level of technology does to some remote primitive civilization on some backwater portion of the planet. The problem you seem to be having is that right here, right now we are the backwater portion of the universe and that remote primitive civilization is us...


ET certainly will be "limited" by the laws of physics just as we are. The problem here is their "limitations" and ours are not even close to being the same thing. ET can't do anything which is logically contradictory, and that's about the best we can say. So ET cannot use gravity and not use it simultaneously, but there is no reason to think that ET with quadrillions times better tech and scientific understanding couldn't simply ignore gravity when they choose. What exactly does gravity do for someone who traverses the 29th lateral concommitant dimensional plane (no idea what that is; totally making it up, but for sake of argument magic and quintillion tech is the same thing)? I have no clue what-so-ever, and I don't pretend to know.

ET's abilities are so wildly beyond our reach as to be utterly inconceivable. We might find the remnants of a civilization that once was at where we are now or somewhere close; if we are lucky will even meet one close to us in technology some day. But thinking we are going to strike the pan-galactic lotto by finding quintillion tech in our "galactic back yard" doesn't even approach wishful thinking.

MTF
 
That's a little unfair. I think everyone's put thought into their posts. None of us can be expected to be absolute experts on all the topics involved in this discussion, and I don't think that should preclude anyone from having their two cents.

You took my very words HJ. :)
 
Yet 100,000 humans can crowd together in a sports stadium, under conditions of incredible emotional outpourings, yelling at the top of their voices with sheer passion, and if accidentally banged on the head by another person's waving arms, will accept a simple "sorry" and continue with no violence.

And yet, on the other hand, outside the stadium kick the crap out of someone because he happens to be wearing a red shirt instead of a blue one or has black skin instead of white.

I think you are right, skeptical for most of humanity but a small minority have the capacity to a) ruin it for the rest of us and b) persuade a sizeable proportion that their intolerant views are correct, hence the rise of the BNP in British society during times of stress.
 
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