Can ADWD live up to the hype?

[Werthead]

I think it likely that the five year delay since book four has much to do with a lack of enthusiasm on the part of GRRM, together with the lack of any clear plan on where to go from here.

I've heard this before and still don't buy it.

If GRRM had left ADWD alone and abandoned the book, not working on it for weeks or months at a time, I could understand this concern being a reasonable one. But the fact that GRRM goes back to this highly problematic, frustrating book day after day to hammer it into shape, rewriting old chapters over and over to solve minor problems (and maybe indulge some perfectionist streak he couldn't afford to previously, which is a concern I've also seen) seems to belie that.

The other issue is there is a plan where to go from here: GRRM wrote an outline of the whole series back in 1996, including the last two books in the series. AFFC and part of ADWD form new material not in that outline, and keeping the new material on track with the published material and the last two books to come has been a major part of the delay. Once that is done, he should be able to return to the outline (assuming that the new material in AFFC/ADWD hasn't completely invalidated it). Whether that means the books will come faster or not remains to be seen.

 

[Landroval]

I've heard this before and still don't buy it.

If GRRM had left ADWD alone and abandoned the book, not working on it for weeks or months at a time, I could understand this concern being a reasonable one. But the fact that GRRM goes back to this highly problematic, frustrating book day after day to hammer it into shape, rewriting old chapters over and over to solve minor problems (and maybe indulge some perfectionist streak he couldn't afford to previously, which is a concern I've also seen) seems to belie that.

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I think you are very charitable Wert. But that's just about the oldest excuse around, and it's nearly five years since the last book. From his comment at the end of that book I thought that much of the work on ADWD had already been done. Even if George had absolutely no idea what was going to happen, five years is an awfully long time to solve his problematic frustrations. Wars have been fought and resolved in that time! (All the more so when the author knows that so many people are eagerly awaiting his work).

Personally I think that other things probably have more appeal to George nowadays and his enthusiasm for ASOIAF has dimmed. If this is so, then it is definitely to his credit that he perseveres with it nonetheless. But I think the first three books were so brilliant because he was really into the project at that time. If he is now forcing himself to write every word, my fear is that, as is so often the case with sequels or follow up works written much later, his fans are going to be disappointed one way or the other. That would be a dreadful shame and so I hope you are right. As you say we will have to wait and see; I just hope we don't have to wait too much longer!!

 

[Werthead]

I'm not sure where the 'charitable' thing comes from. I am going by both publicly-available information and also by my own resources. GRRM has worked on ADWD pretty much continuously since turning in AFFC in May 2005, including a pretty major revamping of most of the book (which took place some time after the note promising that ADWD would follow in a year was put in the back of AFFC). The commitment issue is best exemplified by the fact that with the exception of two short stories, GRRM has not written any non-ASoIaF-related fiction in about sixteen years, and that ADWD's writing time is only now approaching the point where it is the longest in the series (AGoT's was longer, although that was muddled by the amount of work on ACoK and a TV pilot script that was done at the same time).

It is true and indeed inarguable that the writing has not gone smoothly at all due to the very well-covered structural and technical writing issues (which people remain curiously uninterested in, preferring to cite, say, watching sport on TV as the cause for the delay because it would be funnier if that was true), but saying the author has lost his overall enthusiasm for the series seems a stretch. Authors have taken far longer to write books that ended up being very good (Susanna Clarke and Tolkien amongst them) and where the quality did not suffer for the writing time. In fact, the history of the genre is far more replete with examples of authors who bashed out a book in a year and then it sucked due to lack of writing and editing time.

Five years is a long haul, I agree, but the writing, structural and technical issues involved in this book (and the previous one) are likewise extreme (and interestingly similar to those that Tolkien was suffering from midway through Lord of the Rings, where lining up timelines and dates induced massive problems that took him a long time to figure out).

 

[Landroval]

I don't think GRRM's case is any way comparable to Tolkien's. Tolkien lived in a different age, before the availability modern technology such as word processors. A world wide war loomed and was fought, he had duties as an Oxford University professor, he was working on other books such as the Silmarrilion, and had not bound himself with specific promises to fans. And Tolkien finished the whole story before he published. As indeed did Susannah Clarke, who wrote Mr Norrell (a very good book by way) in her spare time. Most crucially the context is different in both of those cases from Martin's. The gaps between Martin's books was two years for the the first three books, five for the fourth and at least five for the fifth. That's a trend, a noticeable slowing down, and I see that as a clear sign of failing motivation.

Of course most authors have no such problems. Rowling managed seven Harry Potter books in ten years for example! But it's not just that. Someone did an analysis of George's blogging somewhere (I don't recall where) and reported that George had written something like 70,000 words on his internet website since AFFC, but only a very small proportion of his blogs in the summer of 2009 concerned the fifth book. Mainly he was interested in other things, such as the TV serial of book one and on pushing some of his other works, and in his social interests such as football (as you point out). This despite the previous broken promises regarding when ADWD will be ready.

Another thing that worries me, and this is of course purely subjective, is that AFFC, having been published after a 5 year gap, was noticeably inferior to the first three books imho.

However note that, while I can understand the frustrations of many, I don't necessarily condemn George. (Although I wish that, like Tolkien, he had finished the story and then published). After all, he hasn't abandoned the books. But I think he has a probable motivation problem, which will in all likelihood affect quality. Nonetheless I accept that it's down to us individually how we interpret his excuses.

 

[Werthead]

I don't think GRRM's case is any way comparable to Tolkien's. Tolkien lived in a different age, before the availability modern technology such as word processors.

Not a very convincing argument. CS Lewis wrote his NARNIA books with the exact same lack of technology as Tolkien and churned out all seven of them in less than half the time LotR gestated. Not to mention many, many other writers also bashed out lots of words in a short period of time long before the advent of the word processor. Although 'word processor' may be a generous description for the 25-year-old programme GRRM uses to write his fiction

A world wide war loomed and was fought, he had duties as an Oxford University professor, he was working on other books such as the Silmarrilion, and had not bound himself with specific promises to fans. And Tolkien finished the whole story before he published.

The bulk of LotR was written in 1939-45, when Oxford University's normal curriculum was suspended as almost all of its would-be male students went to war instead and Tolkien actually had a lot more free time than he had prior to it, especially since he was not chosen to help with war office work. Tolkien also made specific, repeated promises to his publishers on when the book would be completed. He sent letters to them promising the book's completion in 1941, 1943, 1945 and more that he repeatedly failed to meet. Worse, we now know he on several occasions wrote letters to his publishers promising he'd make progress or 'big pushes' on the book during periods when he'd written nothing. This wasn't due to lack of ability or writing speed when needed - Tolkien wrote the entirety of Book IV of LotR in about three months - but purely down to procrastination and writing blocks.

Martin, on the other hand, has been quite upfront at reporting when he is not working on the book due to other commitments (mostly overseas travels). I grant that GRRM could have been feeding us Tolkien-esque excuses and even flat-out lies to cover a lack of work, but from mutual contacts and friends this does not appear to be the case.

The gaps between Martin's books was two years for the the first three books, five for the fourth and at least five for the fifth.

Again, that is only the publication time. The writing time is a different story altogether. With the exception of ASoS, none of the books in the series have taken less than three years to write, and one other (AGoT, although incorporating part of ACoK) has taken about five. Whilst now approaching outlier status, ADWD's writing time is not outrageously long in comparison.

Rowling managed seven Harry Potter books in ten years for example!

Again, only going by publication date. Rowling began writing the series in 1990, however, so that's seventeen years for seven books totalling about 3500 pages, contrasted with ASoIaF's eighteen for four books and three novellas totalling about 3750 pages.

Fancy that, GRRM is just as slow a writer as JK Rowling

But it's not just that. Someone did an analysis of George's blogging somewhere (I don't recall where) and reported that George had written something like 70,000 words on his internet website since AFFC, but only a very small proportion of his blogs in the summer of 2009 concerned the fifth book. Mainly he was interested in other things, such as the TV serial of book one and on pushing some of his other works, and in his social interests such as football (as you point out).

This despite the previous broken promises regarding when ADWD will be ready.

GRRM did not comment much on the writing of ACoK or ASoS whilst he was writing them either, and had previously stated on several occasions he would not be offering blow-by-blow updates on the writing of ADWD or any other book for concerns of spoilers.

On the last point, he ceased giving any possible dates for ADWD because of the previously incorrect estimates regarding when ADWD will be finished (starting with the one in the back of AFFC).

Another thing that worries me, and this is of course purely subjective, is that AFFC, having been published after a 5 year gap, was noticeably inferior to the first three books imho.

This could be the start of a trend, and I agree the dip in quality with AFFC (although not unexpected given the reports of the book's difficult nature) did raise concerns to those of us who had been through this before with Robert Jordan. However, it is purely fear, uncertainty and doubt at the moment that makes people fear the same will be true of ADWD. This is one criticism that cannot be answered until the book comes out, although the fact that it is nearly done and GRRM has reiterated that the series can be finished in two more books is a hopeful sign that there will be no further splits, divisions by POV character or so forth.