A Dance with Dragons - Discussion - WARNING: SPOILERS!

[Boaz]

I was stunned at how poorly Mance faced death and by how easily Rattleshirt beat Jon.

Thanks, guys. Oh, I got it... I just meant that I was shocked at these events before Melisandre revealed the truth.

ITP, He is Aegon. It is known.

 

[Needle]

ITP, He is Aegon. It is known.

It is known! Just glad he listened to Tyrion about how to proceed, going directly to Dany didn't work out so well for Quentyn!

 

[Tansy]

nah Varys substituted him, not sure what Varys is to the Targs but he's making sure they got a shot at the throne again, maybe we need the fire to fight the ice and prevent the long night?

Maybe Varys and a few others have the long term survival of the realm as their goal, or maybe not

The Aegon that was killed had his face mashed to a pulp so no-one would recognise him.

 

[Needle]

nah Varys substituted him, not sure what Varys is to the Targs but he's making sure they got a shot at the throne again, maybe we need the fire to fight the ice and prevent the long night?

Maybe Varys and a few others have the long term survival of the realm as their goal, or maybe not

The Aegon that was killed had his face mashed to a pulp so no-one would recognise him.

Can't even give a good guess as to what Varys is up too! Wouldn't we all feel silly if his motives are just what he says they are!

Now granted maybe they didn't count on there being actual dragons in the mix, but if Aegon is false the dragons will know! Making the whole thing, if it is a charade, pointless.

 

[Boaz]

Can't even give a good guess as to what Varys is up too! Wouldn't we all feel silly if his motives are just what he says they are!

No way! If this was so, Varys would have had Viserys, Dany, and Aegon killed years ago and he would have supported Robert more vigorously. No... Varys is a Targaryen loyalist through and through.

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

No... Varys is a Targaryen loyalist through and through.

But the general consensus seems to be that he played a large role in driving The Mad King around the bend. Why? He might be a Blackfyre loyalist or something, but I don't think it can be as simple as Varys loves the Targs...

Is it just a coincidence that the story Illyrio tells Tyrion about how they got started ("he stole things, I offered to get them back") sounds an awful lot like what happened in Westeros? Why on earth would Mopatis give a damn about being Master of Coin? There's something going on here that I don't understand.

 

[Boaz]

Varys pushed Aerys II over the edge? Really? If that's true, then my theory that Varys is a long lost Targ or Blackfyre pretender might be true. Varys could be a nickname for Visaerys.

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

Chime in here guys, I don't really have any citations to hand, but I definitely have the impression that Varys fed Aerys' paranoia and probably intentionally (though, strangely, he did, allegedly, beg the king not to open his gates for Tywin). Am I totally making that up?

 

[Needle]

Chime in here guys, I don't really have any citations to hand, but I definitely have the impression that Varys fed Aerys' paranoia and probably intentionally (though, strangely, he did, allegedly, beg the king not to open his gates for Tywin). Am I totally making that up?

I think you are correct that he fed Aerys' fears. In which case if he really is out to better the realm what better way to do it at that time than to remove Aerys, which would have given the throne to Rheagar! Yet loyalty to the Targs would have meant Aerys over Robert, so don't let Tywin in!

 

[Bazza]

Chime in here guys, I don't really have any citations to hand, but I definitely have the impression that Varys fed Aerys' paranoia and probably intentionally (though, strangely, he did, allegedly, beg the king not to open his gates for Tywin). Am I totally making that up?

I don't have quotes, but the line you are referring to goes something along the lines of: <Aerys was seeing traitors in every shadow, and Varys was pointing out the ones he missed.> But I don't think he was making him more paranoid than he already was, attempting to further his downfall.

Varys was, in the 2nd or 3rd book, described as the only one pleading with the king to NOT open the gates for Tywin Lannister during Robert's Rebellion because he knew his true purpose. He didn't want the city taken, and the Targaryens cast from power. I believe he truly was a Targaryen loyalist and was pointing out the real traitors.

Yes Aerys was the mad king, but according to Ser Barristan in ADWD he didn't start out that way. I think it was after his rescue from Duskendale and his time in the dungeons there that he started to go truly mad. And those he burned were high lords, not the scores of innocent townfolk that suffer during civil war. Varys is on record saying that the innocent are the ones who suffer when the high lords play the game of thrones. He doesn't want a game of thrones and could care less about the players. He wants the king on the throne who can command obedience from the realm and keep it from bleeding. He knows what it's like to be weak and alone, that's how he grew up. He doesn't want others to suffer as he did.

He knew that the Lannisters were aspiring for the throne, he knew this was lead to civil war, so he cultivated as many Targ options as possible to groom them to end the coming war and bring the realm together again.

<From the very last chapter in the book......SPOILERS if you haven't read it!>




We have little to go on to peg his true motives it's true. Everything he says is a lie, always playing the mummer. But in the very last chapter you see his contempt for the high lords and praises Aegon's return. He preaches how Aegon was brought up among the common folk, the ones he should be protecting, not using for his own games. There is no reason for him to lie to a dead man, it would not serve him.

"Whom do you truly serve Lord Varys?" - Eddard Stark

"The realm my lord. Someone must." - Lord Varys

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

Am I seriously the only person here who doesn't buy Varys' stated motivations at all? What about Illyrio? Whatever they're up to, they're in it together and I don't think for a second the fat man is interesting in protecting the realm or being the Master of Coin. Tyrion is very likely the best judge of character we have a PoV from (it's him or Davos right?) and he didn't buy it for a second.

They're up to something, and while it might involve putting a Targ (or an alleged Targ) on the iron throne, there's no way that's the main point of what they're doing. I'm actually kind of shocked anyone thinks otherwise.

 

[IlliferThePenniless]

Incidentally, I'm listening back through ADwD now and something just caught my ear the second time through...

While Tyrion is musing about the dragon books he wishes he could access

...Blood and Fire, or The Death of Dragons, the only copy of which was supposedly hidden away in a locked vault beneath The Citadel.

I think I know what the Faceless Men are looking for in Old Town.

 

[Bazza]

I think I know what the Faceless Men are looking for in Old Town.

Good catch! I wonder what else is buried under there.

Am I seriously the only person here who doesn't buy Varys' stated motivations at all? What about Illyrio? Whatever they're up to, they're in it together and I don't think for a second the fat man is interesting in protecting the realm or being the Master of Coin. Tyrion is very likely the best judge of character we have a PoV from (it's him or Davos right?) and he didn't buy it for a second.

I confess I don't know about Illyrio, where he fits in. I'm not sure I believe master of coin either. Where do his interests lie? Who is he? He did have the dragon eggs, did he know their true purpose? Does he know of the prophecy? He is a merchant prince, when a nation as large as Westeros is in the midst of a civil war, that's bad for business. If he can help make it a stable realm, it would mean more profit. Mayhaps he was completely honest and was helping Varys for something as simple as childhood friendship.

If this was really the case, I doubt Tyrion would even pick up on that.
Tyrion is a good judge of character yes. But Tyrion's world is cloak and dagger, his own father, brother and sister betrayed him. He trusts no one. In most cases this keeps him alive. But it also keeps him friendless. He didn't trust Griff, perhaps rightly so when it came to his well-being. Same with Illyrio. But even though he didn't trust him, Griff was fiercely loyal to Aegon, he would die for him.

 

[Gry Wnd]

All the traveling in this book reminded me of The fellowship of the ring.
"they just keep wagon training" - Stand By Me

The Meerene knot was solved by stringing some story lines out and just basically killing off one seemingly pointless one.??

Little disappointed.
Silver lining; there were a lot of little questions answered and hints towards some theories, so we have a ton to whittle through for the next 6 years. Tyrion a Targ? Robert Strong? The reasons Jon isn't dead and the implications (we may have another character juggling two gods/ what he will do to Bowen Marsh)

As a Jon fan; It's funny that I was literally thinking "why doesn't anyone stay dead?" the whole book and then that happened..
Hell I might as well be the first to spell it out;
**1. He's not dead because of the prologue.
**2. He's not dead because there is a, back from dead, trend in this book.
**3. He's not dead because saying "Ghost" is a hint
**4. He's not dead because of the power of the red god displayed in past books and with Victarion
**5. He's not dead because of the letter from Ramsey, would GRRM really do that to us after such an awesome tease at Jon kicking his ass (I know he's done it before -Red Wedding)? But really?

No one got their comeupins I wanted some comeupins! Boltons, Cersei, Freys (I know but it wasn't enough)...

Oh and I believe Varys, him and his fat buddy like playing the game and getting rich from it, if not there is no way to know so why speculate?

 

[Tansy]

Bazza - they are lots of profits to be made from war

I'm guessing/hoping Quentyn's death finally makes Doran Martell act or at least kicks off some action in Dorne in the next book, he's put the sandsnakes in play and they are likely to act rashly

 

[Needle]

Bazza - they are lots of profits to be made from war

I'm guessing/hoping Quentyn's death finally makes Doran Martell act or at least kicks off some action in Dorne in the next book, he's put the sandsnakes in play and they are likely to act rashly

I have to agree here, hopefully Doran will give up on patience! As for the Sand Snakes, I say about time! Let them loose, with the possible exception of Obara who will moist likely just get herself killed! She doesn't seem to be much of a player, more straight forward warrior type. Plus we have been shown many times that the women are the strong ones. Their survival and success rates are much better than the average here!

 

[MIDNIGHT]

okay, I admit to reading in a haste, but ...... why did Melissandra walk away just before Jon got knifed ? (did she plan it?). Why is Dany bleeding ? (can she bear children now ?) More importantly.... Why hasn't someone killed Ramsey? EWWWWW How can Jon be the prince that's promised if he is Un-Jon ? I would rather him be dead then resurrected by Millissandra . Does anybody remember more about Bloodraven and his story ? Could he resurrect Jon (that would be better )?

 

[Bazza]

Bazza - they are lots of profits to be made from war

True, but that depends on what their selling. War creates chaos and lawlessness. Ships can't trade with cities that are under siege. Navies that usually patrol for pirates are busy sinking each other, or playing pirates themselves.

I forget what our friend Illyrio traffics in, but if it's foodstuffs, civil war does profit him. Fields are burned, crops are destroyed, and winter is coming. Once order comes there will be a huge demand for foodstuffs. Maybe that's his goal?

why did Melissandre walk away just before Jon got knifed ? (did she plan it?).

I don't think she planned it, she was spending the whole book trying to get Jon to trust her. I think she needed him. Her POV showed us that her visions were tough to pin down, and she's not the best at interpreting them correctly. She knew death was coming but maybe not when/where. Or maybe she did and went to gather her queen's men? Maybe she was distraught and didn't see Stannis in her flames anymore.

EWWWWW How can Jon be the prince that's promised if he is Un-Jon ?

Stoneheart was dead for days on end I think, which is why she's so much the worse for wear. I don't think Beric was that bad off the first time he was resurrected. I think when the number started sky rocketing to 7 or 8 he started to lose himself.

Still, the fact that his own men turned on him kicks me in the gut as I'm sure it did him (Figuratively, not literally. Well. Literally too.). I still love when he sentenced Janos to death. My favorite part.

 

[Gry Wnd]

Still, the fact that his own men turned on him kicks me in the gut as I'm sure it did him (Figuratively, not literally. Well. Literally too.). I still love when he sentenced Janos to death. My favorite part.

Agreed,

Just re-read the Ramsey letter, he really threw down the gauntlet. It would just make no sense for Jon to have no way of answering. Just too frustrating for the readers...

Anyway, his fingers got clumsy after a small scratch from first blade, significant?

 

[Bazza]

Anyway, his fingers got clumsy after a small scratch from first blade, significant?

Hmm. Poison you think? I'm not sure anyone left from the night's watch had access to a poisoner's knowledge. There are no maesters left, but I suppose there are a lot of criminals, I'm sure he could have gotten it from somewhere. Jon also lost feeling when the fourth dagger hit him, but it could have been the shock and the cold. Or death.

Oh yes, just re-read it, very suspicious!

Side note: It's interesting that GRRM used the description that his wound "smoked" in the cold. Wouldn't steamed be the more apt description? It is a liquid giving off heat. Another subtle hint of the dragon blood inside him? Maybe!