Varys again (ADWD and beyond)

[Needle]

The quote is sufficiently ambigous so that it can have more than one interpretation. I choose to believe that Illyrio is talking about a dance that involved killing off Arryn, either by manipulating Littlefinger into having it done, it operhaps by the outright buying of him.

I think your probably right with Varys buying Littlefinger to kill off Jon. We know he is very much buyable and was a unique position to get it done.

 

[grip junky]

Tears, tears, no need for tears. Something like that.

 

[The Imp]

Do you think this was the real plan?

I think the plan was for Viserys to reclaim the Iron Throne. Dany was an afterthought. They never planned on Viserys being dumb enough to get himself killed.

 

[grip junky]

I think the plan was for Viserys to reclaim the Iron Throne. Dany was an afterthought. They never planned on Viserys being dumb enough to get himself killed.

Thanks for the reply. I think I look at in to real a way.

It just seems like a bad plan, the horde are not reliable, they have no ships, their leadership is not a constant, if you got them over there they become the Saxons.

 

[The Imp]

Thanks for the reply. I think I look at in to real a way.

It just seems like a bad plan, the horde are not reliable, they have no ships, their leadership is not a constant, if you got them over there they become the Saxons.

I agree that it wasn't a great plan, but to this point in the story it SEEMS that Varys/illyrio want a Targ back on the Iron Throne. I think the really interesting question is whether or not Aegon is legit. I think he is, as Varys would have no reason to lie to a dying, soon to be dead Kevan. The problem with this is, he would have known of Aegon's existence when the plan to seat Vsierys was hatched. Maybe that was the main plan, and Aegon became plan B when Viserys died and Dany delayed getting back to Westeros, not to mention the fact that she embraced her role as a Khalessi/Queen in Essos.

 

[Coragem]

"You have danced the dance before, my friend."[/SIZE]

Might this mean that he killed a previous Hand, prior Jon A?

I'm not sure what Varys would have to gain from killing Jon. If he'd lived he'd presumably have exposed Joffrey (and his brother and sister), which may've helped the Targaryen cause. (I suppose he could've buy time, do nothing to destabilise the Baratheon order, while he was waiting for the Targaryen pretenders to become ready, but it seems a bit awkward.)

Stability and finding a good, just, ruler, does seem to be a key motivation for Varys -- see his comments about Aegon at the end of ADWD where he says Aegon will see Kingship as a duty of service, not a right.

Also, with Little Finger, it's impossible to tell what he's really done, since he is so duplicitous, with some many false claims (e.g., bedding Catelyn Stark).

Finally, sorry to go off topic, but did we ever find out who tried to murder Bran in AGOT? Obviously the plot, the knife, etc., were a major part of AGOT. It's years since I read it, but I just don't recall discovering a who or why ...

Coragem.

 

[Ursa major]

I'm not sure that Littlefinger needed much persuasion in setting in motion the death of Jon Arryn. Given his lowly position (in terms of the nobility) his relationship with Lysa was his best (and probably only) way to gain visible, semi-independent power (as opposed to being merely a high-ranking apparatchik).

This doesn't mean that Varys didn't nudge him in that direction, but it leaves open the possibility that the plan was Littlefinger's alone.

 

[viZion]

I don't think Varys had anything to do with killing Jon Arryn. Again, we're back to trying to make certain characters that we think are cool be all-powerful. Even Varys is surprised with how things turn out sometimes. As Coragem points out, there's very little for Varys to gain from killing Jon Arryn especially since he'd have no idea who Robert would make into the next Hand. Sure, *maybe* Jaime becomes the Hand but obviously Robert wasn't thinking that. And what would Varys have to gain from Jaime becoming Hand anyway? Nah, Varys isn't a part of Jon's murder.

Petyr Baelish was acting on his own when he had Jon killed. Petyr is motivated by improving his station in life. He wanted/wants the Eyrie. The Iron Throne was way out of his grasp but the Eyrie is a much better lot in life than whatever pathetic village he already had. Petyr and Varys aren't allies in anything nor do they even have similar goals at this or any other point.

 

[zmorgas]

Finally, sorry to go off topic, but did we ever find out who tried to murder Bran in AGOT? Obviously the plot, the knife, etc., were a major part of AGOT. It's years since I read it, but I just don't recall discovering a who or why ...

Coragem.

Joffrey tried to kill Bran, because he heard Robert saying that it would be better for him than living crippled. It was uncovered in ASOS, I think at his marriage ball...

 

[grip junky]

I agree that it wasn't a great plan, but to this point in the story it SEEMS that Varys/illyrio want a Targ back on the Iron Throne. I think the really interesting question is whether or not Aegon is legit. I think he is, as Varys would have no reason to lie to a dying, soon to be dead Kevan. The problem with this is, he would have known of Aegon's existence when the plan to seat Vsierys was hatched. Maybe that was the main plan, and Aegon became plan B when Viserys died and Dany delayed getting back to Westeros, not to mention the fact that she embraced her role as a Khalessi/Queen in Essos.

Aegon being raised by Jon Connington says a lot about him being legit. I was thinking about this last night, do you think the true plan was to wait and see which one could lead and be king and then kill off the other. Veserys could have never held the kingship for long, so he sends he and his sister off in the long grass to get them out of the way. Who could have known that the eggs would hatch.

 

[Slovian]

There are very strong evidence pointing out that Jon Arryn was killed by Lysa (who was directed by Littlefinger). I wouldn't go out in direction to link Varys with it - it looks like dead end to me.

I have another question I'm asking myself for quite a long time. I think that Varys wanted to keep Westeros destabilized until new ruler will come and claim it , as he said it in final chapter of ADWD. Westeros is in utter chaos, very destabilized and destroyed by war, so basically he succeed. But, there were few moments that where crucial for this process and if they would go different way it all would probably stop quickly:
- Ned Stark death - if Ned would survive, he would be very important hostage allowing Lannisters to force peace with North, and so it would stop the war at the beginning.
- Death of Tywin - at the moment of Tywins being murdered, Lannisters were victorious and with his leadership (I personally don't think of Tywin as purely bad person - but as a extremally pragmatism one with lack of morals) Iron Throne power would rebuild steady.

At both this events Varys was "close". At execution of Ned Stark he was indeed at the place, he also had some last words with Ned, althrought it looks like he had no influence on Joffrey who made this idiotic mistake of beheading Eddard.
Also when Tywin died - he was so close... He was the one that free Tyrion, and he was leading the way when Tyrion realized that they are just under Tower of Hand... I know he was "taking orders" from Jaime but... Well is it coincidence that events that happened was exactly what Varys intended?

 

[The Imp]

There are very strong evidence pointing out that Jon Arryn was killed by Lysa (who was directed by Littlefinger). I wouldn't go out in direction to link Varys with it - it looks like dead end to me.

I have another question I'm asking myself for quite a long time. I think that Varys wanted to keep Westeros destabilized until new ruler will come and claim it , as he said it in final chapter of ADWD. Westeros is in utter chaos, very destabilized and destroyed by war, so basically he succeed. But, there were few moments that where crucial for this process and if they would go different way it all would probably stop quickly:
- Ned Stark death - if Ned would survive, he would be very important hostage allowing Lannisters to force peace with North, and so it would stop the war at the beginning.
- Death of Tywin - at the moment of Tywins being murdered, Lannisters were victorious and with his leadership (I personally don't think of Tywin as purely bad person - but as a extremally pragmatism one with lack of morals) Iron Throne power would rebuild steady.

At both this events Varys was "close". At execution of Ned Stark he was indeed at the place, he also had some last words with Ned, althrought it looks like he had no influence on Joffrey who made this idiotic mistake of beheading Eddard.
Also when Tywin died - he was so close... He was the one that free Tyrion, and he was leading the way when Tyrion realized that they are just under Tower of Hand... I know he was "taking orders" from Jaime but... Well is it coincidence that events that happened was exactly what Varys intended?

Perhaps by warging, although certainly Joffrey would have realized that he was "entered", as Tyrion would have.

 

[viZion]

Ok, guys, forget this warging business. Not everyone is a warg and it's becoming the default explanation for everything on these forums. Why even go there? Let's put just a little thought into things first. My #1 rule is Keep It Simple.

I've said about a million times, including right here in this thread, that Varys killed Tywin. There was no warging or any magic or anything at all involved. He sent Tyrion up that ladder knowing *exactly* what would happen. The only magic here was using a bit of psychology to figure out that Tyrion would murder Tywin. Easy peasy and not a warg in sight.

Varys did not know Joffrey would kill Eddard. Remember how I said that even Varys is surprised sometimes? He's not omnipotent or omniscient or any other omni. I think he really intended for Eddard to go to the Wall because he actually felt sorry for Ned and his complete inability to play the Game. He took pity on Ned but Joffrey ruined that plan.

He did want chaos to rule in the Kingdom though until he could bring a Targ back to power. This is why he had Tywin murdered. Tywin was too competent and was actually making things better for everyone (sorry guys, I know the Starks are the "good" guys but their defeat *did* bring some peace to the Kingdom. If you can accept that peace is better than war even if it means the side you like lost then you'll see that Tywin was successful). He needed inept Cersei back in charge so she could continue to screw things up. This is also why he killed Kevan. Kevan was too competent. So he killed off Kevan so that now Cersei and her ineptness will now be back in charge. Don't think for a second that Cersei is broken. With Kevan gone she is sure to seize the opportunity to get back into ruling the Kingdom. And first on her agenda will be making the Faith pay for what they did to her which will cause more chaos which is exactly what Varys wants.

Tl;dr: Varys is basically just a master manipulator with no special powers other than being really smart.

I'll leave his motivations for wanting the Targs back in power for someone else to explain.

 

[Mesanna]

Yeah, I agree ViZion. I think Varys is just very good at reading people and manipulating events from behind the scenes. He can pull people's strings without them realizing. I don't believe there is any magic here. The big mystery about Varys is not how he controls events, but why? I believe he's either a minor, long-forgotten Targ himself, or his family served the Targs. I don't believe he's in the game for money or power the way Littlefinger is. Varys's motivations are the big puzzle.

Having said all that, I would be absolutely thrilled to discover he was a secret agent of The Others!!

 

[The Imp]

As a general response to a few people

1- It's a virtual certainty that Varys is not who he says he is, that being, an orphan boy who was raised by Mummers and sold to a dark magician so that his "manhood" could be used in some ritual.

2- Varys has an agenda. It's not clear if he is helping Illyrio, or if Illyrio is helping him, or they are co-conspirators, or if there are others working with them.

3- All we know about Varys is what he has told us, or what Illyrio has told us. I trust both of them as far as i could throw Illyrio.

4- Varys has an uncanny ability to change appearance, including "fake" beard stubble that is real enough to fool anyone, even those standing close to him. Arya didn't recognize him, but he was somehow familiar. SHae recognized him, but she wasn't looking at him when she did. Varys was surprised that she "saw" through his disguise. She explained it by saying a whore has to see past the exterior and see the real person in order to stay alive.

5- There is ongoing mention of the old tom cat with the chewed off ear. the one Arya chases and leads her to..Varys/Illyrio. Toomen mentions him and we soon find Varys killing Kevan.

6- A Faceless man appears in King's Landing around the same time that Illyrio meets secretly with Varys.

8- Varys knows almost as much as a present day person would if they had bugs, cameras, etc. planted in every important room in Westeros.

8- Tyrion is telling anyone who will listen that he killed his father,AND that he killed Joffrey. Did he? Tyrion beleives that Tywin's last words were "where whores go". How did he come to beleive these things?

If anyone wants to dispute anything in this post have at it, but my take on this is that there is a connection between Varys and the Faceless men, and that Varys MIGHT be something more than meets the eye. Warg? Faceless man? Targ? I don't know, but what I DO know is that GRRM has given him a back story and left enough breadcrumbs lying around that one COULD develop such a theory, and that theory couldn't be dismissed. Especially in a FANTASY series.

Varys being a FM, or in some way connected with them, or possibly being a warg, or even just magical in some way is just inference based on what we know to be true. None of it may not be probable, but all of it is possible.

 

[viZion]

The only thing I really don't agree with is any possibility of Varys being a warg. It's just smacks of reaching for crazy theories for the sake of reaching for crazy theories. Your Varys as Faceless Man theory has merit. Varys as warg really has none. It's just too easy to start super powers on every cool character. This, to me, is like saying Mel is going to resurrect Jon just because we saw another Red Priest with the same power. Everyone has their strengths and weaknesses and I respect GRRM's vision enough to think that he'll separate them a bit and not just hand out special abilities to everyone because it makes things easier to explain.

Back to wargs: For the purposes of this series, that's really a Stark thing. Sure, Varamyr was a warg but the entire reason for his existence as a character was basically as a warg handbook for the reader so that we can better understand what's up with the Stark children. Also, I doubt anyone outside of the North could even be warg candidate. The Faceless Men don't even seem to know of them as demonstrated by Arya being able to use it against the Kindly Man without him figuring it out.

Finally, that cat is Rhaenys' cat. She named him Balerion. Of course, that's just a theory but it's something I picked up on years ago on my first re-read. Later I found out that many other people also picked up on it. I don't know what that will mean to your theories and what not but hopefully it helps you put more pieces together! Here's a wiki page about it:

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Balerion_(cat)

 

[Mesanna]

I don't think Warging is a Stark thing exactly, but it does seem to be a Northern thing. Didn't the Wildlings know about wargs (or am I just mis-remembering?) I thought they were pretty much common knowledge beyond the wall.

So, if Varys is in fact an agent of The Others, then he would originally be from the North and could very well be a warg! (I don't really believe this unfortunately )

 

[The Imp]

The only thing I really don't agree with is any possibility of Varys being a warg. It's just smacks of reaching for crazy theories for the sake of reaching for crazy theories. Your Varys as Faceless Man theory has merit. Varys as warg really has none. It's just too easy to start super powers on every cool character. This, to me, is like saying Mel is going to resurrect Jon just because we saw another Red Priest with the same power. Everyone has their strengths and weaknesses and I respect GRRM's vision enough to think that he'll separate them a bit and not just hand out special abilities to everyone because it makes things easier to explain.

Back to wargs: For the purposes of this series, that's really a Stark thing. Sure, Varamyr was a warg but the entire reason for his existence as a character was basically as a warg handbook for the reader so that we can better understand what's up with the Stark children. Also, I doubt anyone outside of the North could even be warg candidate. The Faceless Men don't even seem to know of them as demonstrated by Arya being able to use it against the Kindly Man without him figuring it out.

Finally, that cat is Rhaenys' cat. She named him Balerion. Of course, that's just a theory but it's something I picked up on years ago on my first re-read. Later I found out that many other people also picked up on it. I don't know what that will mean to your theories and what not but hopefully it helps you put more pieces together! Here's a wiki page about it:

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Balerion_(cat)

Whoa, back up a second Viz

Read my post rioght above this one that I quoted. One of my many points is the coinincidence of the old tom cat right before we see Varys and just before he kills Kevan. I agree that it's a huge stretch to inferthat Varys can warg based on that very small event, but, it's just interesting that the cat has been mentioned so many times. Your thoery about is' lineage is accurate.

It seems to me that we're in agreement on most of this stuff. I'm not proposing a Varys=Warg thoery, just saying that I'm interested in coincidences, and the cat being more than meets the eye would explain a lot.

 

[Ursa major]

The old black tom doesn't have to be the object of warging (with Varys** as the warg). The cat may be a familiar***, which might suggest that Varys is a warlock; it might even be an example of what the most expert Faceless Men are capable of.



** - Someone/something assisting Varys could be a warg. One of the "children", perhaps?

*** - In folklore (ours, not that of Westeros), familiars are spirits, ones who can take on many forms, including that of a human. perhaps Varys is the familiar, which then would beg the question: who (or what) is he assisting?

 

[The Imp]

The old black tom doesn't have to be the object of warging (with Varys** as the warg). The cat may be a familiar***, which might suggest that Varys is a warlock; it might even be an example of what the most expert Faceless Men are capable of.



** - Someone/something assisting Varys could be a warg. One of the "children", perhaps?

*** - In folklore (ours, not that of Westeros), familiars are spirits, ones who can take on many forms, including that of a human. perhaps Varys is the familiar, which then would beg the question: who (or what) is he assisting?

Very good points. I think it's probable that something is up with that cat. The idea of familiars has not been introduced in this series, so while it's possible, I don't think it's likely that GRRM will pull that one out of thin air.

Is there anyone we've met that has an ear missing? It would have to be someone in KL. no one comes to mind at the moment.