The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

Pedro Del Mar

Pedro Del Mar

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Hi all,

I know it's incredibly early but do we have any expectation or estimation of when The Winds of Winter will be published?

Has GRRM given any clues? Is he writing right now? Or is he having a break since ADWD was published?

Cheers
Crooksy
 
Apparently he said, in 2011, that he'd get down to writing more** of TWoW in January 2012.






** - He removed some chapters from ADwD before publication - including the one*** we've already seen on the Internet - which will be in TWoW.

*** - I believe that a different TWoW chapter will be included with the ADwD paperback, though I may be wrong.
 
Ursa major said:
*** - I believe that a different TWoW chapter will be included with the ADwD paperback, though I may be wrong.
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Yes, GRRM said that would be the case on his "not a blog".

Someday I need to have a good rant against readers who demand certain publishing dates from authors. Recently Alastair Reynolds has been badly slated for agreeing a book a year deal, with people on the internet claiming he is sacrificing quality for a lucrative deal. Meanwhile people slate GRRM for writing slowly and, in my opinion, at a truly amazing level.

In terms of writing quality I think ADWD was the best yet, so I think we should be happy to wait a few years if it means we're going to get something that good again.

In terms of dates, I'd "guess" at somewhere between 2014 and 2016.

Coragem.
 
To be fair, I think people's complaints about GRRM stem from his stating that ADWD would be available at a certain time, and, alas, it wasn't. Also, he blogs constantly about his hobbies. A work horse, he is not, but when he eventually gets down to writing, the result is pretty damn fine.

Still, a little discipline, just a bit, would go a long way towards his getting his books out with a little more regularity.
 
I'm guessing summer 2014 for TWoW.

If Bantam publishes the Dunk and Egg novellas this year, as I've heard they are doing, It's not such a long wait.
 
Grunkins said:
I'm guessing summer 2014 for TWoW.

If Bantam publishes the Dunk and Egg novellas this year, as I've heard they are doing, It's not such a long wait.
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BWAAAAA-- HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh, crap. I think I just peed myself.:eek:

Two years to write tWoW? That would be wonderful, but he's never really been able to pull that off. The first three books came out in quick succession only because the man had been working on them for the better part of a decade, and with AGOT was released, ACoK was practically written, and SoS was well on the road to completion, given a number of character chapters that were moved to it. Then, it was four years for AFFC. Then, it was almost 7 bloody years for ADWD.

While he has 10 or so chapters done, GRRM's muse doesn't let him write more than that a year, and certainly his discipline doesn't. How many chapters in ADWD? 60 some? That would mean 25 chapters a year, and the man just hasn't got that sort of track record. Still, it would be nice.

I will engage in some powerfully wishful thinking, and suggest spring 2015, for no other reason than I think it is remotely possible, and that I'd like it to be sooner, but know that it won't be.
 
Clansman said:
Still, a little discipline, just a bit,
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Sorry Clansman, but that's a very arrogant comment, which I guess you didn't really mean. After all, I doubt you've written too many masterpieces to rival ASOIAF, and if you tried I suspect it'd take you quite some time.

Assuming that GRRM is only human he must be disciplined in order to write with such mind-boggling detail and expansiveness! Most authors accomplish far less in a lifetime.

As for blogging about his "hobbies", trust me, when a writer tries to deny him or herself time off the quality suffers in the extreme -- staring at a screen with bleary eyes results in worse than rubbish writing.

Coragem.
 
I'm thinking about 4 years, so 2015 is my guess. I would love to be proved wrong and the book comes out earlier. I fear I will be proved wrong and it will be much later.

Oh well, the situation is what it is. *shrugs*
 
I better pace myself then (not gonna happen!) seeing as I'm only eight chapters into aFfC I have most of this and a whole juicy other to look forward too!

You guys will just have to satisfy yourselves with re-reads or re-re-reads for now. I will probably end up doing that any way - just to get the enormous quantity of houses and characters all in the right place in my poor brain.
 
Coragem said:
Sorry Clansman, but that's a very arrogant comment, which I guess you didn't really mean. After all, I doubt you've written too many masterpieces to rival ASOIAF, and if you tried I suspect it'd take you quite some time.
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First, I am not a GRRM fanboy, despite enjoying his work greatly. The man can write a damn fine yarn.

I did mean my comment about discipline though, and it is based purely on the evidence:

1. GRRM took the better part of 7 years to write one book of 1100 pages or so. That works out to about 157 pages a year. Hardly a blistering pace, and most of the book was written in late 2009, 2010, and early 2011, according to his blog posts. I know he had to start over in 2005/6, but I finished reading AFFC in 2004. I got ADWD on June 12, 2012. I am content with the results of the wait, however, but it took longer than it should have.
2. Lots of authors in many different genres publish work of similar quality and do so with much greater frequency. GRRM is not the only brilliant author out there. Even in the fantasy genre, there are huge epic series that match GRRM in prose quality, tightness of plot, and excellent characterization. Some, arguably, are better. The books of these series come out steadily because the authors actually sit down and write the books in a disciplined fashion.
3. By his own statements, GRRM is interested in a lot of other things, and CHOOSES to engage in them regularly, including figurines, blogging, the Wild Cards series, Fantasy Football, Comic/Gaming Conventions, Fantasy/Sci-fi Conventions (although this would be part of his publishing contract in promoting his books (like that's necessary anymore)), etc. and so on.

I did not say what I said to be arrogant or mean. The guy is just not a diligent work horse of a writer, and does not bring a steady discipline to his work, by his own admission. It is hardly arrogant for me to point that out, when he has already done so on his own behalf. I just said that a little discipline would be nice. That is hardly an attack, or arrogant. It would just be nice, because then we'd get the books in a more timely manner.

And I do not pretend that I could write a masterpiece like ASoIaF, not for a moment. I am not so blessed in talent or experience.
 
Clansman said:
First, I am not a GRRM fanboy, despite enjoying his work greatly. The man can write a damn fine yarn.

I did mean my comment about discipline though, and it is based purely on the evidence:

1. GRRM took the better part of 7 years to write one book of 1100 pages or so. That works out to about 157 pages a year. Hardly a blistering pace, and most of the book was written in late 2009, 2010, and early 2011, according to his blog posts. I know he had to start over in 2005/6, but I finished reading AFFC in 2004. I got ADWD on June 12, 2012. I am content with the results of the wait, however, but it took longer than it should have.
2. Lots of authors in many different genres publish work of similar quality and do so with much greater frequency. GRRM is not the only brilliant author out there. Even in the fantasy genre, there are huge epic series that match GRRM in prose quality, tightness of plot, and excellent characterization. Some, arguably, are better. The books of these series come out steadily because the authors actually sit down and write the books in a disciplined fashion.
3. By his own statements, GRRM is interested in a lot of other things, and CHOOSES to engage in them regularly, including figurines, blogging, the Wild Cards series, Fantasy Football, Comic/Gaming Conventions, Fantasy/Sci-fi Conventions (although this would be part of his publishing contract in promoting his books (like that's necessary anymore)), etc. and so on.

I did not say what I said to be arrogant or mean. The guy is just not a diligent work horse of a writer, and does not bring a steady discipline to his work, by his own admission. It is hardly arrogant for me to point that out, when he has already done so on his own behalf. I just said that a little discipline would be nice. That is hardly an attack, or arrogant. It would just be nice, because then we'd get the books in a more timely manner.

And I do not pretend that I could write a masterpiece like ASoIaF, not for a moment. I am not so blessed in talent or experience.
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Where has he said he's undisciplined and not a diligent worker? I've not seen that. If he did, well, fair enough.

I did hear an interview with him a while before Dance came out (I think before it was confirmed too) where he said he's not always this slow of a writer - and there's proof of that in your post in a way if as you say most of Dance was written in 2009-2011, that's 1000 pages (plus stuff that got cut) in < 3 years not the 157 pages a year average over the whole period between Feast and Dance.

Also he's talked a bit about the supposedly unique problems he's had with this book, have to scrap or majorly rework a lot of what he'd done at one point, the whole existence of the book being down to the scrapped five year gap between the end of Clash (I think) and the next book, and the so called Meereneese Knot. I'm not sure he's entirely cut that knot yet but if you believe he has and believe that he knows how the story is going to end (I do believe that) then maybe he is over the hump.

I think the fan obsession with his hobbies and pastimes is at best a bit silly and misguided, and at worst deeply obnoxious (not you Clansman but the famously Gaiman-provoking corners of fandom take this to creepy extremes). Even if writing could be done like a 9-5 job (I'm assuming people don't want him to be a full on slave, though I'm not totally sure in the case of those I just mentioned!) the remaining hours of the day would give him plenty of time to paint miniatures and watch sports. I can see why it's been picked up on, because he puts it out there and because of the huge frustration from fans over Dance (which I fully understand) but I really think it's irrelevant.

Anyway, only time will tell - my optomistic guess would be late 2014/early 2015. Pessimistic guess would be summer 2016. I really don't think we're in for another Dance With Dragons wait, but if we are then I think I'll have given up on ever seeing the end of the series by then anyway. :eek:
 
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I suspect that GRRM writes better under pressure, which is why he wrote most of the book in the latter half of the ASoIaF interregnum.

I simply stated that a little more discipline would be nice. Writing is not a 9 to 5 job, but if one fills their life with other things, less room is left for writing. GRRM was very good about telling us all of his exploits, which means that he both did them, and then took the time to tell everyone.

Anyway, that's all I'll say on this subject, because I'll simply go over old ground. I'd like to see some other guesses.
 
Clansman said:
I suspect that GRRM writes better under pressure, which is why he wrote most of the book in the latter half of the ASoIaF interregnum.
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Quite possibly true, anotther reason why I'm reasonably optimistic is the additional focus on the series and him because of the TV show. That's got to be a big motivator to write for a lot of reasons.
 
Spring 2016.

That might be a bit too optimistic though.
 
Rufio said:
Quite possibly true, anotther reason why I'm reasonably optimistic is the additional focus on the series and him because of the TV show. That's got to be a big motivator to write for a lot of reasons.
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I think this will put a certain amount of pressure on him to move things along. If we were to assume that the TV show continues to the end, and that there are only two more books in the series, the air dates for the TV shows would go like this:

Clash of Kings: April 2012
Storm of Swords 1: 2013 (I think they've more or less confirmed Storm of Swords will run over 2 seasons)
Storm of Swords 2: 2014
Feast/Dance 1: 2015 (I've combined Feast for Crows & Dance with Dragons since much of the timelines are concurrent)
Feast/Dance 2: 2016
Winds of Winter: 2017
Final book (Dream of Spring?): 2018

So, if GRRM doesn't want the TV show to get ahead of the books, he has to produce two books before the spring of 2018 (assuming each of the final two books gets one TV season). How do we rate his chances on this? (No, don't answer!)

Of course, this is really all just for fun and speculation because there are no guarantees that they will continue to make the show or how much they will combine books (hell, Feast & Dance could be condensed into one season!)

I'm not going to knock GRRM for taking whatever length of time he needs to write his books, but to be honest, I think I would be a little disappointed if I had to find out the end from a TV show, rather than reading it in the book.
 
Agree with Mesanna there, definitely want to read the ending rather than watch it.
A very optimistic winter 2013 for me :)
 
These are publishing dates we're aware of:

A Song of Ice and Fire series:
It looks to me like it's going to take 5 or 6 years for GRRM to write TWOW so I'm going for 2016
 
Really hoping that it will be finished by the end of 2014, but that may be a bit optimistic. Although, he did say that several chapters were moved from Dance to Winds of Winter so hopefully it won't be too long a wait. :D
 
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