Stabs in the dark for Winds of Winter Launch

[Ursa major]

To be fair, I believe the published A Game of Thrones was merely that part of the originally conceived A Game of Thrones** that the publishers and GRRM agreed would make a good first novel of the series. As I understand it, he had already completed much of what we now know as A Clash of Kings by that point (and, possibly, some of A Storm of Swords). Which means that he didn't write either ACoK or ASOS in only two years each, as suggested by that timeline.





** - Which would have stretched to the end of what we now know as ASoS.

 

[juleska]

Say what you will....I'm sticking by my original guess. My estimation would be three years after the release of the last book. And the basis of my reasoning is this: We know he was struggling with the last 2 books because the story got so big. He says he's not introducing any new POVs. I think he's coming off of ADWD with a much clearer idea where he intends to go with TWOW and that the pieces will begin to fall together much more quickly than they did with AFFC or ADWD.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

 

[impatience]

Okay. I'll concede 2013 is a little farfetched.
Is somebody making a betting pool?
I want to add the following dates to hedge my bets:

Jul 20, 2014
Jul 20, 2015
Jul 20, 2016

I cannot bear even those dates so I'm willfully ignoring everyone elses guesses in the 2017, 2018 range.

 

[Yog-Sothoth]

To be fair, I believe the published A Game of Thrones was merely that part of the originally conceived A Game of Thrones** that the publishers and GRRM agreed would make a good first novel of the series. As I understand it, he had already completed much of what we now know as A Clash of Kings by that point (and, possibly, some of A Storm of Swords). Which means that he didn't write either ACoK or ASOS in only two years each, as suggested by that timeline.





** - Which would have stretched to the end of what we now know as ASoS.

True, but ADWD was a real b.tch to write for GRRM, pardon my French. He wrote tons of pages, then scrapped everything and started over. Now that this masterpiece is finally out of the way, I think he has a clear vision of where the story is going, with no new POVs or parallel situations, everything and everyone will be coming together in Westeros in the next book.

The success of the tv-series, and larger exposure of the books as NYT best sellers has also reinvigorated/motivated him as a writer, so 2014 might not be as farfetched as we think. He was 400 pages strong early this year, he might be around 6-700 pages today, another year later, he might be at 12-1300 pages, a few months later and he could be finished. Then it goes to the editing process, another few months. We would be in early 2014 then and his publishers could push for an early release that same year on the back of HBO's adaption of A Feast of Crows.

My estimate: Sept/Oct 2014.

 

[Eversummer]

hmmm. i want it so bad... i want it tomorrow! HAHAHA!

 

[CyBeR]

1st of April 2014

Cuz I want it on my birthday that year, that's why.

 

[Koopa]

Werthead,


I would hereby like to take the occassion to thank you in advance for listing everyone launchdate in a convenient excel document for us to easily peruse.

Sincerely,

Peeves

 

[Needle]

I believe his publishers will push for Christmas season 2013. This will, however, stress him out and he will not make it. He will say the heck with this and enjoy the holidays with his beloved! After which, she will say- baby your driving me crazy now, why don't ya go work on your book! Since his beloved ask him so sweetly, he will work sit down to work and discover he's got it all figured out, everything, word for word!

April 2014

 

[Werthead]

He was really in the zone back then wasn't he? A new classic every two years. I wish he had started the series in 1986, I'm pretty sure we would have a finished epic today.

I hope for a 2014 release, with ADofS in 2017.

He started the series in 1991, and to a certain extent wrote the first three books as one narrative (they were originally supposed to be one novel!) from 1991 to 2000 (though there was an 18-month break where he worked on a TV show instead). They certainly weren't written in 1-2 years each, as indicated by a bald surface reading of the release dates.

Also, Book 4 and most of Book 5 weren't really supposed to exist. After the ending of ASoS, the very next scene was supposed to be:

Spoiler

Daenerys on Drogon's back, flying into the Dothraki sea. Everything that happened before that was supposed to have been related in flashback.

Everything that came before that point (quite a lot of material!) had to be written on the fly as opposed to the plan he'd drawn up beforehand.

 

[Graeme Brown Winnipe]

I'm expecting end of 2014 at the earliest. My guess is that George will have the draft sone by the end of 2013, with no unexpected distractions, and given that (the rumor I heard) has him 200-300 pages in, he's about a quarter done. Publication takes usually takes about a year and a half, but if this one's a bitch and three bastards, then it might take him longer. Oh well, if it's as spectacular with every sentence as the rest, then I'm okay with the wait.

 

[Eulalia]

Well Graeme, maybe just a wolf bitch and some faux bastards. Has anyone picked May 15, 1915?

 

[Mesanna]

I'm pretty certain no-one's picked 1915!!

is Eulalia a time-traveller? Enquiring minds want to know.

 

[Eulalia]

I am a brazen speculator!

Time-traveller would make a much better story, though! Need a white dragon for that, right? Or at least a Star Trek episode.

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

I dare try and say 7th May 2017 simply because he said it would be done by the end of 2014. On a more depressing note, not that I believe in Mayan doomsday, but imagine if it were to happen and we would die not knowing the ending.

 

[MWagner]

I listened to a Wired podcast about Game of Thrones the other day, recorded in April 2015, and the panel were quite certain the Winds of Winter would be published before the 6th season of the TV show was broadcast in 2016.

I marvel at human optimism.