Random Events shaping Westeros? (Spoilers will abound)

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

As always, since I am new to this forum, if this has been discussed before, please direct me
As I work my way through the series for the 2nd time (currently trying the AFFC/ADWD combo read, tyvm fellow forummates who posted them), I am struck by the # of random events, especially in the early books when everything is set in motion, that vastly alter or destroy the plans of the "game of thrones" players. Those tragic, "aw, if only they hadn't/had done that" moments have had huge implications, and I think it could be argued that it is these moments that could ultimately determine the "winner". These events, when taken together make me think that all those who think they are playing/controlling/winning the game are kidding themselves. Tywin comes to mind as example (if only about a book and a half too late for my taste, but you take what you can get).
SO, with that in mind, I'd love your thoughts and input on the following:

Perhaps the ultimate winner, if there even is one/three, will be the one(s) in the right place at the right time, not intentionally even playing the game at all?

Maybe that is something of a point that GRRM is trying to make? Either that random events shape our lives and/or that fate/destiny happens regardless of anything we do?

Some of your favorite "aw, if only they hadn't/had done that"/random moments/events?

I will spare you my entire list, but here's a few random events that I feel changed everything to start us off:
1- Bran picking that particular tower and that particular moment to climb, followed by,
2-Jaime pushing Bran--I would argue that if he hadn't, aSoIaF might have been just one book
3-Cat running into Tyrion at an inn full of Ned's/Hoster's bannermen, AND nabbing him--I mean, really, what are the odds? And was she even thinking about how much trouble she might be causing for her family in KL???
4- Tyrion surviving the Vale-- if he doesn't, there's no clever chain/wildfire trap, Stannis' ships are not destroyed and KL is sacked before Tywin can get there.
...

 

[Gumboot]

As always, since I am new to this forum, if this has been discussed before, please direct me
As I work my way through the series for the 2nd time (currently trying the AFFC/ADWD combo read, tyvm fellow forummates who posted them), I am struck by the # of random events, especially in the early books when everything is set in motion, that vastly alter or destroy the plans of the "game of thrones" players. Those tragic, "aw, if only they hadn't/had done that" moments have had huge implications, and I think it could be argued that it is these moments that could ultimately determine the "winner". These events, when taken together make me think that all those who think they are playing/controlling/winning the game are kidding themselves. Tywin comes to mind as example (if only about a book and a half too late for my taste, but you take what you can get).
SO, with that in mind, I'd love your thoughts and input on the following:

Perhaps the ultimate winner, if there even is one/three, will be the one(s) in the right place at the right time, not intentionally even playing the game at all?

Maybe that is something of a point that GRRM is trying to make? Either that random events shape our lives and/or that fate/destiny happens regardless of anything we do?

Some of your favorite "aw, if only they hadn't/had done that"/random moments/events?

I will spare you my entire list, but here's a few random events that I feel changed everything to start us off:
1- Bran picking that particular tower and that particular moment to climb, followed by,
2-Jaime pushing Bran--I would argue that if he hadn't, aSoIaF might have been just one book
3-Cat running into Tyrion at an inn full of Ned's/Hoster's bannermen, AND nabbing him--I mean, really, what are the odds? And was she even thinking about how much trouble she might be causing for her family in KL???
4- Tyrion surviving the Vale-- if he doesn't, there's no clever chain/wildfire trap, Stannis' ships are not destroyed and KL is sacked before Tywin can get there.
...

I aren't sure about the first two. If you actually think it through, Bran's encounter with Jaime has had very little impact on events.

I think it's even more fun to go back even further. Had Catelyn not been merciful to Littlefinger, and had instead allowed Brandon Stark to kill him, the War of the Five Armies would never have happened.

And I think you're exactly right about Martin's intent. I am not sure if he's trying to make a point as such, but he's obviously familiar with history, and so much of history is decided by the most insignificant of events.

A perfect example is the Battle of Waterloo, which was probably one of the most significant "fulcrum" events in European history. The battle is full of tiny moments that could have turned the result. It's amazing that something as minor as the honesty of a young Belgian peasant could decide the course of European history.

 

[Lady of Winterfell]

I wouldn't call it random, but I always try to tell Robb not to go see Walder Frey in ASOS, thus averting the Red Wedding. But he never listens.

 

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

I wouldn't call it random, but I always try to tell Robb not to go see Walder Frey in ASOS, thus averting the Red Wedding. But he never listens.

None of them listen--it is SO frustrating

 

[Yavannie]

I wouldn't call it random, but I always try to tell Robb not to go see Walder Frey in ASOS, thus averting the Red Wedding. But he never listens.

The second time around I had a proper go at him for breaking his promise to the Freys. It feels a bit like a sloppy solution to me. I suppose he had a bit of Lyanna in him, because it's very un-Ned and un-Cat (heh) to do a thing like that.

 

[Lady of Winterfell]

None of them listen--it is SO frustrating

It's like they can't hear me or something!

The second time around I had a proper go at him for breaking his promise to the Freys. It feels a bit like a sloppy solution to me. I suppose he had a bit of Lyanna in him, because it's very un-Ned and un-Cat (heh) to do a thing like that.

You are right Yavannie, I should probably move that back in the story and ask him not to break his promise to marry the Frey girl. But something tells me he won't listen to that either.

 

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

I aren't sure about the first two. If you actually think it through, Bran's encounter with Jaime has had very little impact on events.

I think it's even more fun to go back even further. Had Catelyn not been merciful to Littlefinger, and had instead allowed Brandon Stark to kill him, the War of the Five Armies would never have happened.

And I think you're exactly right about Martin's intent. I am not sure if he's trying to make a point as such, but he's obviously familiar with history, and so much of history is decided by the most insignificant of events.

A perfect example is the Battle of Waterloo, which was probably one of the most significant "fulcrum" events in European history. The battle is full of tiny moments that could have turned the result. It's amazing that something as minor as the honesty of a young Belgian peasant could decide the course of European history.

Gumboot, we might have to agree to disagree on this one, but I'll give a shot at making my case with respect to the Bran/Jaime incident. I believe it changes a LOT.
If Bran doesn't fall and have the near-death experience:
1- He might never see the 3-eyed crow, or at the very least, sees it much later in life, vastly changing that entire story arc.

2- He would have gone to KL w/ Ned and the girls. I remember a passage where Cat is lamenting that she had hoped Bran would stay with her and feeling guilty about it or something to that effect after his fall.

3- With Bran in the mix on the Kingsroad, who's to say Arya wouldn't be just as likely to be sword practicing with HIM instead of Mikken, removing the Joff/Arya/ Mikken/Nymeria squabble, and keeping BOTH direwolves in play? Arya is still linked to Nymeria (e.g. Un-Cat and the river) even though they didn't have much time together--who's to say what avenues would have opened to her if given the time to further bond with Nym?

4- It takes away the 2nd attempt at killing him--no incriminating dagger to implicate Tyrion AND most importantly,

5- Cat stays home. Tyrion isn't nabbed, and is IN KL by the time Cersei starts mucking with Ned. Jaime has no need to go after Ned, there's no resulting ambush and death for most of Ned's men, which leaves him in a MUCH better position tactically. That whole interaction w/ Littlefinger/Cat/Ned never happens, which I think strongly influenced Ned's fateful decision to trust Littlefinger with procuring him the Goldcloaks.

6- Tywin doesn't start the war. He doesn't release the Mountain to rape/pillage, Ned doesn't send out Beric and Co. as a counter. Tywin has no reason to summon the Bloody Mummer's--no Qyburn, no Vargo among others and the Brotherhood without Banners never happens--Maybe Thoros never finds his Red God afterall and continues his faithless, drunken existence.

7- I think Ned does still poke around looking for what Arryn knew and clashes w/ Cersei, BUT I think he keeps his head, and is likely sent to the Wall--Jaime had no need to take off since he hadn't attacked Ned, Tyrion is very likely there in KL as well--no way they let Joff do any lopping to start a war with the North.

8- Tyrion never links with Bronn, Shae or his horde of Mountain Clansmen/women. Would not have had any combat experience prior to Blackwater AND might not have been made Hand by Tywin because they never interacted during the beginning of the war. If the war does still happen, and he's not Hand, does he still come up with the Wildfire/chain idea? hmmm.

IF Ned lives, he either calls off Robb, OR because Ned is Ned, has him join Stannis for the "rightful claim to the throne". Stannis still kills Renly because he is still a weasel and now you've got Stannis with Renly's, his AND Ned's bannermen. With such a show of force for Stannis, I don't think the Twins crossing would require as much effort with Frey. The Tyrell's could still side with Tywin, but I don't think they would with Stannis having such overwhelming #s. I think it more likely that they sit this one out or join with Stannis. SO,
Jaime has two hands, Brienne likely died in Renly's tent, slain by Loras, no Red Wedding, no Joff poisoning, no Tyrion imprisonment, no poisoning/bolt in the belly for Tywin, the Lannisters get the crap kicked out of them, Tyrion isn't in exile, so no reason to go after Dany, who knows what happened to Arya and Bran--perhaps tromping through the woods with Nym and Summer, Sansa is still a poodle so probably still gets stuck in KL, Stannis sits the throne, bringing his Red God with him, we've got Jon, the Old Bear AND Ned fighting the Others for us (I know I feel better) AND we all know who Jon really is because Ned said the next time they saw each other, he would tell him about his mother.

If Ned does get the axe, and the King in the North comes to be, setting out against the Lannisters/King Joff, with Cat at home, who negotiates with Frey to cross the Twins? Robb? no way. Most of his bannermen are a bunch of blowhards...except for Roose, but he hasn't positioned himself to reap the rewards of betrayal yet--Winterfell hasn't been sacked and burned, he doesn't hold Theon AND Jamie, he doesn't have a play and I don't think the crossing happens, stranding Robb in the north. With nothing to stop him, Jaime would take Riverrun and with the Grey Wolf stuck in the North, that would free up Tywin to devote himself to Stannis. I think the Tyrells see the advantage and they join Tywin/Tyrion, and they remove Stannis as a threat, permanently. SO,
Jaime has two hands, Brienne still dead in Renly's tent, no Red Wedding, Stannis either dead, in prison or soon to be beheaded for treason, Joff probably IS still poisoned by the Tyrells/Littlefinger to protect precious Margaery, Tyrion probably IS still imprisoned because who better to frame than a dwarf, but now we've got the Mountain AND a healthy Jaime still in play for one heck of a trial by combat-- if he's cleared, he might not try to kill Tywin. If his champion loses, Jaime's either dead or fought for Cersei so it's a coin toss on whether he sticks with his sister or feels guilty and helps Tyrion escape. So we could either have an acquitted Tyrion with no reason to seek out Dany, or the exile we have now. Arya and Bran, who knows, Sansa-- still a poodle, Stannis never bails out the Night's Watch, so either Mance takes Castle Black, and Robb who has nothing better to do takes the Wildlings out, OR Robb answers the call and stops them from taking the Wall in the first place. Either way the Red God takes a big hit--no Stannis, no Brothers.

I could go on, but I hope you can agree, that at the VERY least, Jaime still has two hands if he doesn't shove Bran from that window

 

[juleska]

I completely agree with your summary. A lot of things stemmed from Jaime's heat of the moment choice to push Bran from the window.

You could also say...if Bran had only listened to his mother...he never would've been climbing the tower in the first place.

 

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

Right? And he promised!

 

[Jeroam]

So the Bran not being pushed out the window and then....
that was so much fun to read.

Here's something else, if Bran goes to Kings Landing and is the one Arya fences with, then the Starks have 3 dire wolves living in the Tower of the Hand. I don't think the wolves would tolerate little birds fluttering in their walls.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

OR

Bran doesn't get pushed out the window so he goes to kings landing. Joff finds Bran and Arya dueling, challenges Bran, one of them dies and all hell breaks loose.

 

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

So the Bran not being pushed out the window and then....
that was so much fun to read.

Here's something else, if Bran goes to Kings Landing and is the one Arya fences with, then the Starks have 3 dire wolves living in the Tower of the Hand. I don't think the wolves would tolerate little birds fluttering in their walls.

Yes, that's true! I would have loved to have read the scene where they drag Varys out from the fireplace

 

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

OR

Bran doesn't get pushed out the window so he goes to kings landing. Joff finds Bran and Arya dueling, challenges Bran, one of them dies and all hell breaks loose.

Yeah, all hell breaks loose...but only if it's Joff who dies. I also thought as I wrote that with 3 dires in tow, IF Joff had joined in the fray, he probably would have been more than just nicked (dead) and THAT might've started things...but with a very different set of characters.

 

[Tywin]

What an interesting thread...

How about this for a "what if":

What if Robb wasn't so dense and identified the danger of the Red Wedding? Perhaps one of the less sleazy Freys might have tipped him off, or perhaps an ambitious Frey heir looking to secure his father's seat?

Robb could have entered the twins with a fight in mind and turned the tables on the decrepit old man, it could have been a slaughter of Freys and would have secured the Twins absolutely for the King of the North. If it was aided by an ambitious Frey, that would also mean the addition of the Frey army back to Robb's as well.

Finding out the truth about the Red Wedding beforehand may have also included the treachery of Roose (I would argue that his beheading would have ended the Ramsay storyline very quickly), and possibly of Jeyne.

Aided by the Cranogmen, the young wolf would have retaken the north quickly and would be back fighting in the south against the Lannisters.

With the Northern threat still active (and possibly stronger than before), Tywin would still keep Sansa as a protected bargaining chip: precluding her marriage to Tyrion and possibly her escape to the Vale.

Joffrey would still die at his wedding, and with Joffrey dead... peace might be possible between the Kingdom of the North and the (6) kingdoms.

 

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

"Perhaps one of the less sleazy Freys might have tipped him off, "

Is there such a thing as a less sleazy Frey??

"or perhaps an ambitious Frey heir looking to secure his father's seat?"

Now THOSE we have in ample supply!
Good one, Tywin, that takes care of the Lannisters...but you KNOW Stannis will have to poke his nose in to try to claim that throne that he "doesn't want". Pesky thing.

I sometimes get lost in the maps of the books for a while, looking at this and that and I remember as I was reading ACOK the 2nd time, thinking about what a pill Frey is and I had this lightbulb/duh! moment of "why doesn't someone/if I were king the FIRST thing I would do is, build another bloody bridge!" Would mean a lot less drama in the books, but I mean, c'mon people, Westeros is HUGE--you can't find another spot to cross those rivers to avoid having to deal with that wretched man??? lol

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

I sometimes get lost in the maps of the books for a while, looking at this and that and I remember as I was reading ACOK the 2nd time, thinking about what a pill Frey is and I had this lightbulb/duh! moment of "why doesn't someone/if I were king the FIRST thing I would do is, build another bloody bridge!" Would mean a lot less drama in the books, but I mean, c'mon people, Westeros is HUGE--you can't find another spot to cross those rivers to avoid having to deal with that wretched man??? lol

I was thinking these same things. at the very least you could have gone down river a few miles and started building barges.

This isn't really a random event, but if I were Renly, I would have merged my army with Stannis, made him declare that I would be his heir, then make sure stannis didn't survive long enough to ever have a son. Everyone in the 7 kingdoms knew that stannis was not an overly passionate man and his wife was still at dragonstone. he isn't likely to sire an heir during the war so why not see how it all plays out and ensure that a Baratheon is still sitting on the throne.

 

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

I was thinking these same things. at the very least you could have gone down river a few miles and started building barges.

This isn't really a random event, but if I were Renly, I would have merged my army with Stannis, made him declare that I would be his heir, then make sure stannis didn't survive long enough to ever have a son. Everyone in the 7 kingdoms knew that stannis was not an overly passionate man and his wife was still at dragonstone. he isn't likely to sire an heir during the war so why not see how it all plays out and ensure that a Baratheon is still sitting on the throne.

I think Renly was prettier than he was smart/devious, but even so, if he had, a good doesn't negate a bad in Stannis' mind, so he probably still would have burned you or lopped something off you might have been very fond of

 

[tangaloomababe]

What if John Aryn hadn't been poisoned, then Ned wouldn't have had to go to Kings Landing and lose his head. Robert wouldn't have gone North, so Sansa would never have got a silly girl thing for evil Joffrey. Mind you Arya wouldn't have had ballet lessons from the Master of Bravos. The book would have Been somewhat shorter though and a lot less exciting.

 

[GonnaNeedaBiggerBoat]

What if John Aryn hadn't been poisoned, then Ned wouldn't have had to go to Kings Landing and lose his head. Robert wouldn't have gone North, so Sansa would never have got a silly girl thing for evil Joffrey. Mind you Arya wouldn't have had ballet lessons from the Master of Bravos. The book would have Been somewhat shorter though and a lot less exciting.

Might have been a short story instead, lol. But with Arryn, if Littlefinger/Lysa hadn't gotten him, Cersei would have, don't you think?

 

[Gumboot]

Gumboot, we might have to agree to disagree on this one, but I'll give a shot at making my case with respect to the Bran/Jaime incident. I believe it changes a LOT.

I think it affects the plot a lot, but I think it's impact on events is pretty minor. By that, what I mean is it has a big affect on what individual people do, but I don't think it would have affected the overall historical events of the War of Five Kings.

If Bran doesn't fall and have the near-death experience:
1- He might never see the 3-eyed crow, or at the very least, sees it much later in life, vastly changing that entire story arc.

I don't think you can argue this. Bran has the Greensight, and the Greensight would have manifested whether he fell or not. I'm pretty sure Jojen says his sight first appeared at Bran's age. I think that's just a coincidence.

2- He would have gone to KL w/ Ned and the girls. I remember a passage where Cat is lamenting that she had hoped Bran would stay with her and feeling guilty about it or something to that effect after his fall.

Yes, he would have, and this could have a significant impact, true. Obviously we can only go by what has happened thus far, and Bran's impact on wider events so far have been negligible. I think we all suspect it isn't going to stay that way, but hey...

3- With Bran in the mix on the Kingsroad, who's to say Arya wouldn't be just as likely to be sword practicing with HIM instead of Mikken, removing the Joff/Arya/ Mikken/Nymeria squabble, and keeping BOTH direwolves in play?

I don't see how this would have had any significant impact on events. It certainly would have affected the plotline for those specific characters, but that's all. It's also purely speculation. There's nothing to indicate Arya was close with Bran, or that she'd practise with him instead of Mikken - after all she was trying to keep Needle secret from her family.

Arya is still linked to Nymeria (e.g. Un-Cat and the river) even though they didn't have much time together--who's to say what avenues would have opened to her if given the time to further bond with Nym?

None of the Dire Wolves have had any major influence on the story so far, so why would we assume it would have been different?

4- It takes away the 2nd attempt at killing him--no incriminating dagger to implicate Tyrion AND most importantly,

This is true, but given what we know of who implicated Tyrion, the same ends would have simply been achieved a different way. Bear in mind that Tywin's pillaging of the Riverlands wasn't the start of the war. That was merely a scrap between Lords, to be resolved by the crown. The war began when Robb declared himself King of the North and marched south, and that happened because Joffrey cut off Ned's head.

5- Cat stays home. Tyrion isn't nabbed, and is IN KL by the time Cersei starts mucking with Ned. Jaime has no need to go after Ned, there's no resulting ambush and death for most of Ned's men, which leaves him in a MUCH better position tactically.

Most of his men? I think you're forgetting how it played out. The happenings with Catelyn and Tyrion are really a bit of a sideshow that wouldn't have significantly influenced events in King's Landing. Ned would still have investigated Robert's children, Cersei would still have killed Robert, Ned would still have been imprisoned for moving against the throne, and Joffrey would still have taken his head.

That whole interaction w/ Littlefinger/Cat/Ned never happens, which I think strongly influenced Ned's fateful decision to trust Littlefinger with procuring him the Goldcloaks.

He had no choice. Without the Goldcloaks he couldn't possibly move against the Lannisters.

Tywin doesn't start the war. He doesn't release the Mountain to rape/pillage, Ned doesn't send out Beric and Co. as a counter. Tywin has no reason to summon the Bloody Mummer's--no Qyburn, no Vargo among others and the Brotherhood without Banners never happens--Maybe Thoros never finds his Red God afterall and continues his faithless, drunken existence.

While all of this is true, again it's events that dramatically influence plot, but have very little influence on major events. The entire conflict in the Riverruns is a sideshow to the war that operates totally independently of the main action.

7- I think Ned does still poke around looking for what Arryn knew and clashes w/ Cersei, BUT I think he keeps his head, and is likely sent to the Wall--

I don't know how you came to that conclusion. That was the plan anyway, remember? Joffrey took his head, because Joffrey's a psychopath. He still would have been a psychopath, and Ned would still have lost his head, which means Robb would still have gone to war.

Jaime had no need to take off since he hadn't attacked Ned, Tyrion is very likely there in KL as well--no way they let Joff do any lopping to start a war with the North.

There's nothing Jaime or Tyrion could have done. Jaime wouldn't have cared anyway, and no one had any warning whatsoever that Joffrey was going to order the execution. Tyrion wasn't Hand of the King, and if he'd tried to interfere the Hound or the King's Guard would have prevented him.

8- Tyrion never links with Bronn, Shae or his horde of Mountain Clansmen/women. Would not have had any combat experience prior to Blackwater AND might not have been made Hand by Tywin because they never interacted during the beginning of the war. If the war does still happen, and he's not Hand, does he still come up with the Wildfire/chain idea? hmmm.

I don't see your logic. Tywin didn't make Tyrion hand on a whim. He would still have made Tyrion Hand until he got to King's Landing, regardless of where Tyrion was. Tyrion might not have met Shae, but Cersei would have found some other whore to send to her bed.

IF Ned lives

Ned was never going to live.

If Ned does get the axe, and the King in the North comes to be, setting out against the Lannisters/King Joff, with Cat at home, who negotiates with Frey to cross the Twins? Robb? no way.

I think we both know that Catelyn would have gone south with him.

Most of his bannermen are a bunch of blowhards...except for Roose, but he hasn't positioned himself to reap the rewards of betrayal yet--Winterfell hasn't been sacked and burned, he doesn't hold Theon AND Jamie, he doesn't have a play and I don't think the crossing happens, stranding Robb in the north. With nothing to stop him, Jaime would take Riverrun and with the Grey Wolf stuck in the North, that would free up Tywin to devote himself to Stannis.

Except that without a Lannister army already in the Riverlands, Robb could simply have marched down the Kings Road, negating the need to negotiate with the Freys (actually... maybe it would have prevented the RW, so maybe it did affect a few important events).

I could go on, but I hope you can agree, that at the VERY least, Jaime still has two hands if he doesn't shove Bran from that window

No I don't agree. 90% of the major events in the story are caused by Joffrey chopping off Ned's head, and that would have happened regardless.

There's another thing that hasn't been considered, however, but which I want to discuss. Tywin was in the Riverlands with a Lannister army two months after Catelyn abducted Tyrion. This was also about one month after Cersei had Robert killed.

From Lannisport to the Crossroads Inn (where Tywin's army is encamped) is 785 miles, but the quickest route would take them directly through Riverrun. A more roundabout route along the Gold Road via King's Landing is 1,230 miles. Both routes require said armies to cross a mountain range.

To put this in perspective, a medieval army of any size can realistically expect to cover no more than 10-15 miles a day, and less through mountains.

Put simply, the Lannister army was on the move long before Tyrion was abducted. I suspect they had planned to seize the throne all along, with Tywin in on Cersei's plot to kill Robert, and the Starks simply blundered blind into the middle of it.

This, of course, raises the question; did Littlefinger know of the Lannister plot, or did he just exploit it to his advantage? We know Littlefinger was behind Jon Arryn's death, and he must have known Robert would go to Ned Stark as his replacement. Was the entire thing a ploy just to get Ned in the path of the Lannisters?