Just to be clear....I don't think GNABB is arguing that these alternative events SHOULD have taken place (I certainly am not arguing that). The events we have had have produced the story we've got, and I am not wishing the story had gone a different way. As far as I'm concerned, we're just spitballing and talking about how major changes in the direction of the story have stemmed from seemingly small events. And that is a lot like life.
I'll give a great (real life) example, and this is a 100% true story.
Back in 1997 I was a college student and, at the time, one of the few who had a personal computer and internet access where I lived. I was using a program some of you may remember, ICQ, one of the first instant messaging platforms. ICQ had a "random chat" feature which would select a random chat partner for you. Since there weren't many people (relatively speaking) on IM programs at that time, most people used IM to make new friends instead of keeping in touch with current and old friends.
I used the random chat feature one night and struck up a conversation with someone my age several states away. He and I began to talk regularly and became very good friends, which we remain to this day (16 years later).
My "random" friend, in 2003 (6 years into our friendship), took a job as a contractor working in Kuwait, and eventually Iraq. He talked to me about his job and said he felt like it was something I should look into. I did. And in the Summer of 2004 I accepted a position as a contractor in Iraq.
I worked in Iraq for 5.5 years, during which time I met and fell in love with the man who would later become my husband. We left Iraq in 2009, went to work in Kuwait and eventually moved to the Philippines, where we live now. We have a home and a small business there, and I am back to working in contracting, presently in Afghanistan.
Had I not connected with my friend that day in 1997, I never would've gone to Iraq...there is no one else I know from any other part of my life (whom I knew before going to work overseas) who did what Jeff did, and no other way I would've come up with the idea of going. If I hadn't gone to Iraq, I wouldn't have met Bill.
One small, very random event completely changed my life path.
We see the same things happening in ASOIAF. So I get where Gumboot is coming from, but I must respectfully disagree. One of many reasons that ASOIAF resonates so clearly with me is that, in spite of being a fantasy series, the characters are so very, very human, and make the same kind of choices we have to make...albeit in a different context.
The stakes may not be life and death (though in some cases, they may be), but we, too, have to choose whom to trust and whom to be wary of. We, too, have to make hard choices that may take us away from something comfortable and familiar and may lead to our ruin or may lead to a life we can't begin to imagine. We lose loved ones, we make new friends, we make the wrong friends, we make bad choices or we hesitate at the wrong time.
What if Theon had listened to Maester Lewin earlier and surrendered Winterfell to Ser Roderick and taken the Black? What if Theon had joined the Night's Watch? An accomplished archer and seasoned soldier would have made a huge difference in a few of those battles. What if Cat had listened to her instincts and anticipated the Red Wedding? What if Ned hadn't gone to Cersei, but taken his suspicions straight to Robert? Or if Ned had gone with Robert on that hunt? What if Dany hadn't "saved" the witch who took her son and her husband from her? She'd have been storming Westeros with a Dothraki horde at her back and sent Joff screaming like a little girl on the skirts of his mother....off into exile (assuming Drogo didn't kill him). No Aegon needed.
Small things, very human choices, have dramatically altered the direction of the story time and time again.
