Tywin's move to King's Landing for Blackwater?

[Darth Angelus]

I don't know if this has been asked before, and I am not sure if I have understood the military situation in the northern (Tywin vs. Robb Stark) war correctly from the TV show, so if someone can explain this, I'd be grateful. It is one element of an otherwise very good story I can't quite understand.

Basically, how can Tywin move his forces to King's Landing in order to save his children and Joffrey from Stannis without sacrificing the war against Robb? Would it not be great distance to march? Tywin and Robb seemed fairly evenly matched in the war before that point. In fact, Robb won many battles. I could see any move of the bulk of Tywin's army to King's Landing would cause an opening for Robb to make a massive offensive into Lannister territory (and cause damage, if needed). Military disaster in the north for Tywin seems a far more likely outcome than almost no change, as it happens.

For a real world analogy, think about either World War, but I think the first one (prior to Russia's exit with the revolution) works best.
As I am sure many will know, the central powers is at war with Britain and France in the west (only Germany in the west), and Russia in the east. Not much happens at the western front for most of the war, and neither side is capable of gaining a clear advantage.

For the example to come, think of Robb as analogous for Britain/France, Tywin for Germany and Stannis for Russia.

Ok, I know this part didn't happen, but if Germany had suddenly moved the major part of its military forces against Russia, do you think Britain and France just MIGHT have gotten a massive upper hand on the western front and an opening to invade Germany very easily? I can see a collapse of the western front (from the central powers pov) as the inevitable result had Germany taken this course of action.

As I said, I might have misunderstood the military situation in book (and season) two, but it would be interesting to know how large part of his army Tywin moved to King's Landing with, and how he could do so unpunished by Robb. How come Robb can't exploit this move by Tywin much better?

 

[Bick]

I've only read the first 2 books and not seen the TV series yet, but this occurs toward the end of ACOK. I think you have a good point - and although I like the books very much, Tywin's sudden appearance at the Blackwater was difficult for me to swallow. (a) for the reason you mention, that it would leave the neck/trident free for Rob, but also (b) because it seemed uncomfortably like a deus-ex-machina plot device for me. After such careful plotting of everything else, I found it hard to believe he could suddenly appear without any warning.

 

[Darth Angelus]

Ok, I guess I am not alone in having a slight problem with this event, then.

It seems we are in agreement. The rest of the story is well plotted, but this feels a bit like Tywin is able teleport his army from the northern front to King's Landing without Robb having time to notice the forces set against him have thinned.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

It is faily well established in the series that the flow of information is both inconsistant and unreliable. all of the information comes from either scouts/messengers or by Raven. We know ravens are often being shot down and you can't get a raven to an army on the march because, like a homing pigeon, the Raven flies to a pre-determined location. Also, some of the warlords (like Robb and Tywin) don't trust their messages to ravens because they might get shot down or read by someone who isn't supposed to see it. Therefore the fact that nobody knew that Tywin was on his way to kings landing isn't exactly surprising. We (as readers) didn't know because we don't have a POV in Tywins army. It is also established (in the books) that Harrenhal is not all that far from Kings landing. Though, in the books, Tywin leaves Harrenhall long before the battle of blackwater.

As to your question about how much of his army Tywin took with him, My understanding from the books was that it wasn't that much. Most of the force that Tywin leads into the battle of blackwater comes from the Reach (the Tyrells) who were the only lords not to switch to Stannis after Renly died. Most of tywins warlords stayed in the field to bother Robb.

Hope that clarifies things for you

 

[Darth Angelus]

Yeah, ok, I think I see now. The plot seems to work significantly better, knowing this information.
It is just that from the TV-show, I wasn't able to get the information that made it understandable. I guess that is another reason to read the books.

Anyway, thanks for the clarification!

 

[Bick]

Thanks for your thoughts Arsten. But it doesn't mitigate my misgivings to be honest. It still reads as a deus-ex-machina to me. Ravens or not, surely there are some spies on horseback keeping track of armies tens of thousand strong, who could ride much faster than an army can trudge? Surely somebody would have seen this army on the move and run to tell someone with the hope of making some gold? Its not very conceivable that he could arrive completely unnoticed. Stannis has no scouts? Come on. And Tywin was losing in the Trident, any weakening of his forces up there would have been damaging to his position in my view.

I don't really mind that this piece of plotting has holes in it, as I still really enjoyed the book. Very few books, even great ones, are perfect after all.

 

[The Imp]

Thanks for your thoughts Arsten. But it doesn't mitigate my misgivings to be honest. It still reads as a deus-ex-machina to me. Ravens or not, surely there are some spies on horseback keeping track of armies tens of thousand strong, who could ride much faster than an army can trudge? Surely somebody would have seen this army on the move and run to tell someone with the hope of making some gold? Its not very conceivable that he could arrive completely unnoticed. Stannis has no scouts? Come on. And Tywin was losing in the Trident, any weakening of his forces up there would have been damaging to his position in my view.

I don't really mind that this piece of plotting has holes in it, as I still really enjoyed the book. Very few books, even great ones, are perfect after all.

Stannis' army had been severely cripled by the time they actually attempted to invade the city. I think the real question (if one is going to ask one0 is whther or not Tywin knew the size of the host he could anticipate facing, or more specifically, was he privy to Tyrion's plan to burn the fleet and if so, did he beleive it could be pulled off?

 

[Brian G Turner]

Basically, how can Tywin move his forces to King's Landing in order to save his children and Joffrey from Stannis without sacrificing the war against Robb?

Actually, I thought that's pretty much what he did - I seem to recall a previous episode where Tywin complained that he kept losing in the field to Robb. Tywin seemed to suggest he was using Gregor to raid and frustrate in the north, to see if that would allow time for existing pressures within Robb's army to fracture it.

In the meantime, ensuring Kings Landing was secure, along with a claim to the throne, was a better strategy than trying to face down Robb in his own lands and on his own terms while Stannis took his rear.

 

[Darth Angelus]

Stannis' army had been severely cripled by the time they actually attempted to invade the city. I think the real question (if one is going to ask one0 is whther or not Tywin knew the size of the host he could anticipate facing, or more specifically, was he privy to Tyrion's plan to burn the fleet and if so, did he beleive it could be pulled off?

That is one more spin to the question. How can Tywin coordinate his war effort with such precision, moving a force of just the right size to King's Landing. Move too small a force, and Stannis would destroy him in addition the other Lannisters. Move too large a force, and he would give in to Robb. And the wildfire seems a bit uncertain. Even Tyrion would not have known the extent of the success of this plan, and we talk some time in advance.

Actually, I thought that's pretty much what he did - I seem to recall a previous episode where Tywin complained that he kept losing in the field to Robb. Tywin seemed to suggest he was using Gregor to raid and frustrate in the north, to see if that would allow time for existing pressures within Robb's army to fracture it.

In the meantime, ensuring Kings Landing was secure, along with a claim to the throne, was a better strategy than trying to face down Robb in his own lands and on his own terms while Stannis took his rear.

Yes, it was almost certainly a better strategy, but even so, I think one could expect a bit more devastating situation for Tywin's army in the north. One could some of those pressures you mention Robb's army was facing to be faced to an even greater extent by Tywin's own, and even quite possibly a rise of morale in Robb's army as the situation in the war suddenly improved that would alleviate its internal pressures. A lessening of resistance by orders of manitude would have a morale boosting effect to any army, I'd reckon.

Also, I am not sure I understand the military situation correctly here, could not Robb strike at Lannister territory and deal a heavy blow to Lannister's economy? Is he too honourable to send his own Gregor? Could be.

 

[Brian G Turner]

Just to clarify, how far into the TV series are you? Simply that in Season 3 some of these questions I think are directly answered, not least in a scene where Robb goes over his general situation while in Riverrun.

 

[Darth Angelus]

Just to clarify, how far into the TV series are you? Simply that in Season 3 some of these questions I think are directly answered, not least in a scene where Robb goes over his general situation while in Riverrun.

I have watched up to the 8th episode of season 3, which is all that has been aired up to this point, as far as I know. I suppose it is possible that I might have missed something that would clarify the situation.

 

[Brian G Turner]

Earlier in season 3 Robb explained his frustration with Tywin's raiding tactics - he had a big go at Edmure (I think it was) because he'd captured a mill and sent the Mountain to flight, when Robb was actually trying to set a trap to capture the Mountain and therefore stop the raiding.

It showed that Twyin's strategy was working to frustrate Robb, and that's Robb's men were frustrated without success in battle.

Furthermore, Tywin had made a point in a scene a while back that he was frustrated that Robb had won every pitched battle, and therefore he was going to apply alternative tactics, hoping to wear done the unity of Robb's men so that their joy would sour - that keeping an army together would be hard when it achieving little.

I think Tywin's plan is classic misdirection - allow him time to consolidate his power (not least with the Tyrells) while he keeps his foes distracted (ie, Ser Gregor in the north to harry Robb).

 

[Tywin]

You've all been having a military discussion without me?

That is one more spin to the question. How can Tywin coordinate his war effort with such precision, moving a force of just the right size to King's Landing. Move too small a force, and Stannis would destroy him in addition the other Lannisters. Move too large a force, and he would give in to Robb. And the wildfire seems a bit uncertain. Even Tyrion would not have known the extent of the success of this plan, and we talk some time in advance.

Coordinating the movement of an army is Tywin's profession. He does it expertly, and he's well known for it.

As for the size of forces in the open field, a small force that know's where it's at and what it's doing can absolutely devastate a larger force that doesn't know it's coming. Especially in the dark when already engaged in a siege oriented the other direction. All of that's not to say even that Tywin had a smaller force, we really don't know. What we know is that he had enough of a force to completely annihilate Stannis's army.

As has been eluded to, it is really hard to know what is going on across an area of operations. We have trouble tracking the location of our own (much less our oponents) even today with all of our technology. That's why this is called "The Fog of War". In this setting a huge advantage goes to the commander who is experienced enough to manage the complicated process of running scouts and spies to find the enemy as well as pickets and patrols to eliminate the enemy's scouts and spies. Add to this a level of discipline and experience in your subordinates who coordinate the actual intelligence and counterintelligence, and what you have through history are some commanders who can navigate through wars as the only ones who know where everyone is at and what the heck is going on.

For an example of a general doing exactly what Tywin did (on multiple occasions) read up on Frederick the Great. For a counter-example you can look at the way Gen Lee stumbled into Gettysburgh and got crushed after his cavalry commander (his scouts), Jeb Stuart, went galloping off after his own objectives and left Lee's army blind.

Yes, it was almost certainly a better strategy, but even so, I think one could expect a bit more devastating situation for Tywin's army in the north. One could some of those pressures you mention Robb's army was facing to be faced to an even greater extent by Tywin's own, and even quite possibly a rise of morale in Robb's army as the situation in the war suddenly improved that would alleviate its internal pressures. A lessening of resistance by orders of manitude would have a morale boosting effect to any army, I'd reckon.

Also, I am not sure I understand the military situation correctly here, could not Robb strike at Lannister territory and deal a heavy blow to Lannister's economy? Is he too honourable to send his own Gregor? Could be.

Based on the numbers mentioned in the books, Tywin had enough troops to split his army in half and end up with two armies that outnumbered Robb's force.

That's really a poor way to look at things though, because numbers are a really bad indicator in this kind of war (any kind of war really).

First: This is medieval warfare, and castles abound. If you own the land and want to preserve your force you can always pull back behind walls and then it's really hard to get you out. What I'm saying here, is that it's not like Robb could suddenly wipe out a smaller force left behind. He could get involved in some sieges certainly, but on a tactical level Tywin would have the time to roll down the blackwater, clear the force besieging King's Landing, and be back in time to relieve anyone under siege in the North. Really it's not that much different than when Robb defeated Jaime at the end of the first season. Jaime was fixed to one spot (we know where he's at...) besieging Riverrun.

Second: Robb's army stayed alive and effective because it was hard to locate. They struck in the dark and out of the woods with wolves acting as scouts I believe. Laying siege to Casterly Rock, for instance, that would take months to bring down would fix him to one place and light a beacon on top of him just asking for trouble.

Third: Robb's plan was to lure Tywin's army away from King's Landing by raiding into Lannister land in the west. His plan was foiled when Edmure bravely rode out against orders and stopped Tywin from crossing the river. The idea is that you ride into the enemy's territory burning and looting and try to incite him to come stop you. This is the same strategy that Tywin used in the first season when he sent the Mountain raiding into the Riverlands. Edmure bravely declared that he would protect everyone, split his army a dozen different directions to try to protect all the people, and then Tywin came right down the middle with a consolidated force, captured Edmure, and besieged riverrun. Robb tried to do something similar (Stannis's army playing the part of the consolidated force striking for the heart), but he had the bad luck once again of being related to Edmure Tully.

 

[Darth Angelus]

Earlier in season 3 Robb explained his frustration with Tywin's raiding tactics - he had a big go at Edmure (I think it was) because he'd captured a mill and sent the Mountain to flight, when Robb was actually trying to set a trap to capture the Mountain and therefore stop the raiding.

It showed that Twyin's strategy was working to frustrate Robb, and that's Robb's men were frustrated without success in battle.

Furthermore, Tywin had made a point in a scene a while back that he was frustrated that Robb had won every pitched battle, and therefore he was going to apply alternative tactics, hoping to wear done the unity of Robb's men so that their joy would sour - that keeping an army together would be hard when it achieving little.

I think Tywin's plan is classic misdirection - allow him time to consolidate his power (not least with the Tyrells) while he keeps his foes distracted (ie, Ser Gregor in the north to harry Robb).

Ok, I am with you so far, and I think that much has been established, and such a tactic does indeed fit into Tywin's character.

However, if I recall correctly, Robb was already winning more than losing before Tywin moved to King's Landing. I understand that he was using a distraction tactic to buy time, but the question is whether that would be enough if his northern lines are thinned beyond a certain point. It feels like the author is pushing it. Tywin should still need to keep something in the north to resist Robb's advance, it seems to me. Then again I have not read the novels so I may not have understood the strategic situation entirely.

Thanks for trying to clarify, anyway?,

 

[Brian G Turner]

However, if I recall correctly, Robb was already winning more than losing before Tywin moved to King's Landing.

Exactly - Tywin modified his strategy for a long term victory, seeing that he was unlikely to succeed in the short term where he was, especially with Stannis trying to threaten his rear and major stronghold.

 

[Tywin]

However, if I recall correctly, Robb was already winning more than losing before Tywin moved to King's Landing. I understand that he was using a distraction tactic to buy time, but the question is whether that would be enough if his northern lines are thinned beyond a certain point. It feels like the author is pushing it. Tywin should still need to keep something in the north to resist Robb's advance, it seems to me. Then again I have not read the novels so I may not have understood the strategic situation entirely.

Robb was winning, as in he was not losing. History tells us that it's easy to win battles all day long and lose a war as a result.

Questions that need to be asked:
1) What does overall victory look like for Robb (what is his political objective)?

2) Do his tactical victories lead him to this political objective?

 

[doglim]

The TV show certainly didn't make this situation as clear as the books IMO.

Once the Tyrells had joined (thanks to LF) then he was able to lead them back to KL. Basically Edmure has to take a lot of the blame for what happened and what was to come. If he had just done as Robb asked then we would have seen a much different outcome for the North and the War.

Silly Tully.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

What we need here is a Map with some colourful arrows indicating where everyone is and where they are going.

Some key points from the books. Kings Landing is in the east, Riverrun is to the North west, Harrenhall is somewhere inbetween, and Casterly rock is even further west and south of Riverrun.

In the books, Robb takes his army from Riverrun and raids the golden tooth and the areas inside lannister territory while leaving a token garrison behind to defend the riverlands (with Edmure in charge). Tywin essentially did the opposite. He moved his forces south east (to Kinglanding) and left a token garrison holding Harrenhal. The boltons take harrenhal around the sime time that Theon takes winterfel.

In the Show, things happen a little differently. Robb doesn't go to lannister territory and is fighting Tywin's army in the riverlands. (tywin himself is holed up in Harrenhal) Tywin still leaves harrenhal making for Kingslanding leaving the Mountain to deffend it, and Robb persues. When Robb gets to Harrenhal the mountain is already gone, but he marched around Robbs army and is back behind him in the riverlands, forcing Robb to turn around to deal with it, and causing Edmure's screw-up. It is around this time that Robb finds out about Cat's father, so he brings his army back to Riverrun (though in the show, this is his first time going there) Meanwhile Tywin made a straight march to kingslanding to deffend his daughter and concentrated grandchildren.

In either version it makes sense, but I think it works allot better in the books. It is certainly better explained. Especialy since Tywin DID weaken his forces in the north, just like you thought would happen, and he DID lose much of his northern front. The northmen have harrenhall, riverrun and they are raiding Tywins homelands, but Kingslanding and the King he is supporting are more important. If Tywin didn't turn back and protect Kingslanding, he would have lost Joffrey, (and Tommen and Cersei), Jaime is already captured, so Stannis would be the King in more than just name.

http://towerofthehand.com/maps/westeros.html

 

[joshrackley]

I think another reason Tywin isn't worried about vacating the fight with Robb in order to save KL is because he knows the other plans he has laid. Not sure how far into the books you are so I won't reveal any spoilers, but basically Tywin has good reason to believe that he can safely use his forces elsewhere.

 

[Darth Angelus]

You've all been having a military discussion without me?



Coordinating the movement of an army is Tywin's profession. He does it expertly, and he's well known for it.

As for the size of forces in the open field, a small force that know's where it's at and what it's doing can absolutely devastate a larger force that doesn't know it's coming. Especially in the dark when already engaged in a siege oriented the other direction. All of that's not to say even that Tywin had a smaller force, we really don't know. What we know is that he had enough of a force to completely annihilate Stannis's army.

As has been eluded to, it is really hard to know what is going on across an area of operations. We have trouble tracking the location of our own (much less our oponents) even today with all of our technology. That's why this is called "The Fog of War". In this setting a huge advantage goes to the commander who is experienced enough to manage the complicated process of running scouts and spies to find the enemy as well as pickets and patrols to eliminate the enemy's scouts and spies. Add to this a level of discipline and experience in your subordinates who coordinate the actual intelligence and counterintelligence, and what you have through history are some commanders who can navigate through wars as the only ones who know where everyone is at and what the heck is going on.

For an example of a general doing exactly what Tywin did (on multiple occasions) read up on Frederick the Great. For a counter-example you can look at the way Gen Lee stumbled into Gettysburgh and got crushed after his cavalry commander (his scouts), Jeb Stuart, went galloping off after his own objectives and left Lee's army blind.

I do realize Tywin is an excellent military commander. I also realize great military commanders may have an aptitude for piecing together a fairly accurate overall picture of the military situation from scarce information.
My point was that what he seemed to know felt like it bordered on the unknowable, commander instinct (or whatever you call it) or not. The wildfire was largely untried, as I understand, which meant Stannis would be unaware of it, but also meant Tywin would have limited experience to determine its chances of success (and calculate his moves accordingly). That is, if he even knew of Tyrion's plan.

Based on the numbers mentioned in the books, Tywin had enough troops to split his army in half and end up with two armies that outnumbered Robb's force.

That's really a poor way to look at things though, because numbers are a really bad indicator in this kind of war (any kind of war really).

First: This is medieval warfare, and castles abound. If you own the land and want to preserve your force you can always pull back behind walls and then it's really hard to get you out. What I'm saying here, is that it's not like Robb could suddenly wipe out a smaller force left behind. He could get involved in some sieges certainly, but on a tactical level Tywin would have the time to roll down the blackwater, clear the force besieging King's Landing, and be back in time to relieve anyone under siege in the North. Really it's not that much different than when Robb defeated Jaime at the end of the first season. Jaime was fixed to one spot (we know where he's at...) besieging Riverrun.

Second: Robb's army stayed alive and effective because it was hard to locate. They struck in the dark and out of the woods with wolves acting as scouts I believe. Laying siege to Casterly Rock, for instance, that would take months to bring down would fix him to one place and light a beacon on top of him just asking for trouble.

Third: Robb's plan was to lure Tywin's army away from King's Landing by raiding into Lannister land in the west. His plan was foiled when Edmure bravely rode out against orders and stopped Tywin from crossing the river. The idea is that you ride into the enemy's territory burning and looting and try to incite him to come stop you. This is the same strategy that Tywin used in the first season when he sent the Mountain raiding into the Riverlands. Edmure bravely declared that he would protect everyone, split his army a dozen different directions to try to protect all the people, and then Tywin came right down the middle with a consolidated force, captured Edmure, and besieged riverrun. Robb tried to do something similar (Stannis's army playing the part of the consolidated force striking for the heart), but he had the bad luck once again of being related to Edmure Tully.

Good points! My analogy with World War I was not perfect, I will admit, because this wasn't trench warfare like the western front.
Yeah, I guess Tywin could keep a certain part of his force in the north, dig in by using fortifications, and quit trying to go after Robb's army (for the time being), and still spare enough men to make a difference against Stannis's army.

And Edmure Tully was a screw-up, no doubt. Robb had a fairly keen military mind himself, it seems (the Starks seemed far more adept at military maneuvering than political ditto), but how does that help if you have commanders that pull the other way.

Exactly - Tywin modified his strategy for a long term victory, seeing that he was unlikely to succeed in the short term where he was, especially with Stannis trying to threaten his rear and major stronghold.

Which I agree to. Even though it was the correct strategic move, the question was whether he should or should not have paid a heavier price for that in the short term.
If he could dig in, using his fortifications, maybe not.

Robb was winning, as in he was not losing. History tells us that it's easy to win battles all day long and lose a war as a result.

Questions that need to be asked:
1) What does overall victory look like for Robb (what is his political objective)?

2) Do his tactical victories lead him to this political objective?

He was winning military victories. That will hurt the enemy to an extent.
However, you are right, there are ways for this to hurt your overall goal, too. You can march too fast and too far into enemy lands that you are unable to secure, so that your supply lines are jeopardized.
Also, some nations (and their economies) are larger in size and can take greater losses (human and economic) before being in real trouble. Since Tywin was both richer and had greater numbers than Robb, I suspect that would be his nation.

1. Probably to establish a sovereign state in the north, if I understand it correctly. At least his bannermen wanted it.

2. He holds the northern part of Seven Kingdoms, but the existence of his northern nation owing no allegience to the Iron Throne is clearly far from secure. His tactical victories do change little.
The question is whether Tywin's departure with a part of his army could give Robb sufficient opening to advance and deal more decisive blows to the Lannisters, which would force them to make concessions. Perhaps not.


Anyway, I think I am satisfied with the clarifications. It makes more sense now. Thanks!