Tywin's move to King's Landing for Blackwater?

[ArstenWhitebeard]

I just want to add that Tywin would not necessarily have to know about Tyrions plan withthe wildfire (which I doubt he did) It certainly helped in the battle, but the might of Tywin and the Tyrells would Probably have crushed Stannis anyway in a classic Pincer manouver. Stannis would have been stuck between a rock and a hard place (guess which is the Rock?) But even if victory was not certain for Tywin, he would still have to attempt to save Kingslanding.

 

[Darth Angelus]

Yeah, I agree that King's Landing was of the utmost strategic importance.

However, in season three of the show (I do not know to what extent that goes for the novel), Cersei admits to Tyrion that without the wildfire, King's Landing would have been overrun before Tywin and the Tyrells arrived, and this does seem to be the case, since the wildfire did massive damage and Stannis forces had reached the keep (and was on the brink of overrunning the last pocket of resistance) by the time help arrived even with the reduced force.

The question is if he would have enough forces to fortify himself within the city. There would probably not be time, but other than that, I guess it would depend on how much of the walls had been broken. I have no real idea how large the arriving Lannister/Tyrell force was, compared to what Stannis might have had left, but from what I understand, I think Stannis had the largest host in Seven Kingdoms at the start of the battle (the defenders of King's Landing were by a very large margin inferior on their own), so without the wildfire, he may still have had enough forces left to repel the new arrivals.

However, Stannis would have been able to grab Joffrey, Cersei and any supporter of the Lannister family. Whether Stannis would simply execute them or keep them as a bargaining chip in an attempt to make Tywin back off, I am not sure. I know Stannis is rigid when it comes to justice (as he sees it, and he is technically right), so he would probably name these people traitors and simply have them executed.
Except for Myrcella, the Lannister's would be out of claimants to the throne (like her siblings, she isn't a legitimate claimant, but the public doesn't know that). Victory after that (if it happened) would not bring back the dead to the Lannisters.

Again, I do not know how many men Stannis had compared to Tywin and the Tyrells, but Stannis would score a major victory even if he just succeeded in wiping out Lannister throne claimants and supporters. That is my take on it, anyway.

Edit: I just checked this. Based on numbers (I am unsure whether Stannis' 20000 men was before or after the wildfire), I guess the arriving Lannister-Tyrell host would still have defeated Stannis. Of course, numbers are not everything, if Stannis could fortify himself in the city. And he would have a hostage that Tywin could ill afford to lose.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

That is true. Without the Wildfire victory for Tywin would have been far less certain, though Stannis' victory would have depended on what he did with the lannisters. Kill them, and Tywin would have wiped him out for a certainty (though that would leave a huge question as to who is the rightful king) Keep them as hostages, and Tywin might have been checked. Tywin did have some of his own tricks though, what with Renly's "Ghost". This was not in the show, but basically they kept Renly's armour and one of the nights, Loras I think, rode into battle wearing it and some of Stannis' Men fled because they thought Renly's ghost was coming for revenge on those who switched sides.

 

[doglim]

That is true. Without the Wildfire victory for Tywin would have been far less certain, though Stannis' victory would have depended on what he did with the lannisters. Kill them, and Tywin would have wiped him out for a certainty (though that would leave a huge question as to who is the rightful king) Keep them as hostages, and Tywin might have been checked. Tywin did have some of his own tricks though, what with Renly's "Ghost". This was not in the show, but basically they kept Renly's armour and one of the nights, Loras I think, rode into battle wearing it and some of Stannis' Men fled because they thought Renly's ghost was coming for revenge on those who switched sides.

It was Loras' brother, as Loras was not big enough.

I think the main thing we need to do though is bow down to Tyrion. The poor lad doesn't get nearly enough credit from his loving family.

 

[Darth Angelus]

It was Loras' brother, as Loras was not big enough.

I think the main thing we need to do though is bow down to Tyrion. The poor lad doesn't get nearly enough credit from his loving family.

A facial scar that was intended to be a trip to the other side is all the appreciation Tyrion gets, courtesies to grateful "King" Joffrey.

What a colossal waste of effort on his part, really.

 

[Tywin]

As for numbers on Stannis's side I think that wiki is a little misleading. It only lists the number of cavalry forces and ships. One would normally assume that the infantry would make up the bulk of a force.

I notice that the wiki says "largely mounted army including...", does anyone have a refrence for what was actually written in the book?

Okay, so even if we are looking at his army as only mounted, we come quickly to questions of how many infantrymen does it take to equate to one rider? History gives us lots of examples where smaller numbers of cavalry chew through infantry like crazy. Depends a lot on the circumstances, terrain, and armament (if you are on foot, dressed in rags, and armed with a pitchfork or a club there are very few possibilities left open by the laws of physics to do any harm to a mounted knight in full armor). See very few pre-gunpowder battles where infantry defeated cavalry on a 1 to 1 scale (Agincourt would be the example of this), but lots of examples of the opposite.

 

[Darth Angelus]

As for numbers on Stannis's side I think that wiki is a little misleading. It only lists the number of cavalry forces and ships. One would normally assume that the infantry would make up the bulk of a force.

I notice that the wiki says "largely mounted army including...", does anyone have a refrence for what was actually written in the book?

Okay, so even if we are looking at his army as only mounted, we come quickly to questions of how many infantrymen does it take to equate to one rider? History gives us lots of examples where smaller numbers of cavalry chew through infantry like crazy. Depends a lot on the circumstances, terrain, and armament (if you are on foot, dressed in rags, and armed with a pitchfork or a club there are very few possibilities left open by the laws of physics to do any harm to a mounted knight in full armor). See very few pre-gunpowder battles where infantry defeated cavalry on a 1 to 1 scale (Agincourt would be the example of this), but lots of examples of the opposite.

Very good points, Tywin! The article is incomplete when it comes to the size of Stannis's force because it seems strange that his army woyld consist of only cavalry.
And yes, cavalry would indeed be far superior to infantry on a 1 to 1 scale, in most cases, for the reasons you mention.

 

[Tywin]

Very good points, Tywin! The article is incomplete when it comes to the size of Stannis's force because it seems strange that his army woyld consist of only cavalry.
And yes, cavalry would indeed be far superior to infantry on a 1 to 1 scale, in most cases, for the reasons you mention.

I can think of a few reasons why Stannis might "only have cavalry", for instance if he had moved ahead of his infantry to get to the city faster. What I don't remember is if this was stated in the books or not.

Also, I think we can assume that most of Stannis's "Cavalry" would have dismounted anyway... it's hard to scale a wall on horseback.

Lot's of details I think were left to the reader to fill in.

 

[doglim]

I can think of a few reasons why Stannis might "only have cavalry", for instance if he had moved ahead of his infantry to get to the city faster. What I don't remember is if this was stated in the books or not.

Also, I think we can assume that most of Stannis's "Cavalry" would have dismounted anyway... it's hard to scale a wall on horseback.

Lot's of details I think were left to the reader to fill in.

IIRC once Renly died some, but not all, of his forces knelt to Stannis. The rest went back with Loras to meet up with the main forces Renyl had left behind. Stannis was vastly outnumbered once they arrived at the Balckwater.

Stannis was unable , because of the burning river, to get all of his force across to attack the city. If he had been able to he probably would have been in to the city before Tywin arrived. Another thing Tyrion did that helped win the battle was sending his mountain clans into the kingswood. They killed outriders and scouts so Stannis knew nothing about the Tyrells coming his way.
Another point to the little Lannister.

 

[ArstenWhitebeard]

The book states Stannis moved on land with "Near twenty thousand knights, light horse and freeriders" Most of stannis' infantry and archers were aboard his fleet, with the plan being to drop them off on the north shore of the blackwater to assault that castle. Stannis' larger war ships would engage Joff's fleet while the smaller, slower ships would ferry stannis' army accross the blackwater to assault the castle. Stannis tactics relied very greatly on his fleet being able to get his army from the south side of the blackwater to the north side. following the Wildfire assault Stannis' "near twenty thousand" cavalry do indeed dismount and they cross the blackwater by means of the barges and ferries that get tangled together and make a sort of bridge.

Things happen much differently in the show. For one, the battle takes place at night. Also, in the show, none of Joff's ships are in the water but in the book there is a frantic sea battle prior to the wildfire being released and when it is, Many of Joffrey's ships (and men) burn in the wildfire too, though that cannot be helped.

 

[Boaz]

Excellent post by Tywin.

Dart Angelus, the books differ from the show a bit. In the show we see Robb at Harrenhal, but in the second and third books he never went that far south nor east. He went west into Lannister territory hoping to draw Tywin after Robb's completely mounted force. Tywin probably outnumbered Robb three or four to one, but Robb was gambling that his mobility could provide him with an opportunity to achieve success where numbers could not. The problem with Robb's strategy was that his cavalry did not have the manpower nor the time to besiege large castles.

Tywin was goaded into chasing Robb. I'm sure Tywin felt his overwhelming numbers and familiarity of his home territory would be more than enough to counter Robb' mobility. Unlike other lords and commanders, Tywin was very patient. He waited at Harrenhal until Robb made a mistake.

Robb got the reports on Tywin's movements and was patiently waiting in the west.

Edmure threw the wrench into Robb's plans when he foiled Tywin's attempted river crossing to get to Robb. Before Tywin launched an all out assault on Edmure, he received a message that Stannis was moving on King's Landing. Tywin turned around and left Robb and Edmure alone.

Yes Robb won every battle, but none were devastating to the Lannisters. Robb had beaten Jaime and Stafford Lannister, but neither were Tywin. And neither had the veteran battle commanders that Tywin had.

Also, I think the show portrays events in strict chronological order, but the books hav their own flow of time. A chapter might end at midnight and the next chapter may begin at dawn. Sometimes chapters are concurrent. There may be days or weeks or longer between chapters. And sometimes a chapter actually predates its predecessor. Mayhaps, like the fog of war, GRRM's point of view method creates accurate sight for, and insight to each character, but only for a short distance... And it leaves us to try and piece together the various bits of data, gossip, rumor, lies, innuendo, misinformation, dreams, and memories into a fuller narrative.

We are trying to piece together the plans and motives of Robb and Tywin... And neither have their own points of view in the books. We only ever see them through the eyes of others. We'll never know exactly what these high commanders were thinking during that campaign. We'll only know what Tywin's children and Robb' mother thought.

And I'd love to know where you are in the series and what you think.