Some thoughts on the Fermi Paradox

[Vertigo]

The best source I could find is this: http://history.nasa.gov/CP-2156/ch5.4.htm

Interesting but that article seems a lot more optimistic about the ability to detect tv and radio than SETI are. Another problem I have is how short a duration such wide broadcasting will have. We only started at the turn of the century and my guess is that within another 50 years max we won't be so wasteful - I think there will soon be very little broadcast that isn't either short range (mobile phones etc.) or tight beamed (to satellite) or beamed from satellite to Earth, or solid (cable, optic etc.) ie. not really detectable at any distance. Assuming we are typical then the window when we (or other races) are detectable is going to be very small and thus chances of listening at just the right time very slim. Believe me I want to be more enthusiastic about the chances but...

Mirannan, I hadn't realised Fermi had been so specific; it really isn't a paradox then. It's only a paradox if we make the assumption that that is how aliens are going to behave, ie. sending out self-replicating drones. The answer to the 'paradox' is therefore that, clearly, one of the assumptions is wrong; the drones assumption or the assumption that, since we exist and the galaxy/universe is so big, there must be loads of others like us out there. It can only be a paradox if the conditions are known absolutes rather than assumptions.

3) Perhaps most importantly, it's brilliant for us SF writers

Wasn't it in Poul Anderson's Boast of a Million Years that he suggests humanity's future is ultimately one of boredom in the far future once all of Physics' secrets have been discovered? So yes still having plenty of unknowns is great!

 

[Mirannan]

I think it's also worth mentioning another possible way of detecting a civilisation from interstellar distances. Spectroscopy.

It's often been said that one of the ways of detecting life at such distances (probably the only way, actually) is finding that a planet's atmosphere is wildly out of equilibrium. As an example, there is a detectable amount of methane in the atmosphere of Earth - an amount that couldn't possibly persist for long in the presence of so much oxygen.

Similarly, an alien civilisation might be detectable by the spectroscopic fingerprint of various unnatural chemicals. In our case, for a while it was CFCs.

As for the radio brightness thing, the same article also mentions high-powered radars as being an important component. I don't really know of another way of doing that job, so perhaps high-powered broadcasts will be around for a while yet. I'm still looking for another source.

 

[Michael Colton]

Agreed, but (to be Devil's advocate) if we believe it'll be possible eventually then we come right back to Fermi again where the argument would be that if it is physically possible and there is other life then it has already done... many times.

I was referring primarily to fiction (reader's suspension of disbelief) at that point and less about the paradox - I need to stop making posts when I am so tired so that I can remain clear.

 

[Vertigo]

Sodice

Mirannan you are absolutely right about radar. Radar is a focused beam and could certainly be detected at interstellar distances. Though I think it has to be military grade targeting radar for that (as it is more focused, but I wouldn't swear to that) and the problem there is that it only points at any individual location in the sky for a very brief period of time. Possibly these could be the cause of the one or two WOW! signals that have been detected but never repeated. Unfortunately it is that repeatability we need to be able to draw rigorous scientific conclusions.

 

[Bick]

This has been an interesting discussion. It's not been noted yet, but a piece of SF fiction that addresses and plays with a good deal of this subject matter is Manifold: Time by Stephen Baxter. I wonder if the respondents to this discussion have read it?

 

[Vertigo]

I've only recently started reading Baxter with the first of his Xeelee books but I am interested in reading more of him and I love hard SF which is what he is supposed to write so I might just add that one to my wish list.

 

[Michael Colton]

After looking it up, I will add it to mine as well. Seems interesting.

 

[RCynic]

I just finished reading a SF novel concerning this. It was an enjoyable read and comes up with an interesting and actually plausible answer to this question. The novel is "Endeavour: The Sleeping Gods" by Ralph Kern. It's also nicely priced in Kindle (I still have trouble paying actual book prices for something digital).

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00LDWTXQQ/?tag=brite-21

 

[Vertigo]

I'll keep an eye on that one but currently, for me, it's a bit highly priced for a debut self-published book. If its ratings and reviews bear out it's promise I might give it a try as it does sound interesting and a quick look inside seems to promise fair prose though, as always seems the case with self-published, a little more thorough editing would have helped. But currently, for me, there aren't enough clearly independent reviews to make me willing to buy.

 

[Abernovo]

Isn't Ralph Kern a Chrons member? Might be worth asking if he sells through other places, other than Amazon.

 

[JoanDrake]

Isn't there a theory that they're here already, and might have been throughout our history, but have chosen to hide for some reason? Given the science they must have to be spacefaring this wouldn't be at all difficult for them, would it?

 

[Ray McCarthy]

Some people might think that. But it's a pretty weak theory with no actual evidence. Despite what Erik Von Danken's book might claim.

 

[Michael Colton]

I think that would fall short of what could be described as a 'theory.' It is just wishful thinking.

 

[ralphkern]

An article I wrote on this topic:

http://www.sffworld.com/2015/06/the-fermi-paradox-where-are-they-by-ralph-kern/