More decline of books info

[Theophania Elliott]

People buy second hand because, in part, Amazon has made an equivalency of it by offering to tell you about new and used secondary market books every time you browse a new one.

Which introduces a problem for any publisher who wants to induce people to buy new instead of secondhand, or to use information on the volume of sales in the second hand market to inform future printing decisions. If people are buying second-hand when there is an opportunity to buy new, then they obviously don't want a new book (otherwise they'd buy one). If they're buying secondhand when there is no new book available, then yes, there may be a market for a new printing.

As far as blockchain and other similar technologies, I don't understand how the industry could possibly embrace such a technology when we all understand that there is no such thing as "used" software. Our whole economy is based on obsolescence, and the nature of value is tied to that. What is the value of something that is neither "new from the manufacturer" nor "worn" in any way? It would just kill publishers of all types if that happened, unless they sabotaged the effort with some other form of planned obsolescence, like throwing out formats constantly for "better" ones.

True electronic money is the same problem - you can't tax what doesn't have to pass through official channels, so government isn't going to allow it.

There used to be 'used' software when you bought it on CD-ROM, or cassette, like buying video cassettes or DVDs. It's only digital downloads that's a problem in that regard - a problem blockchain technology has the potential to overcome. What the digital goods industries will do about it is a different question - you may be right; they may decide that the risks of creating a legal second-hand market are greater than the disadvantages of the current pirate trade. Or they may not. We'll have to see how it shakes out.

But electronic money is legal tender in many countries: bitcoin gets publicity for its use on the darknet, but in London you can buy a burger, get hapkido or English lessons, or hire a Man with a Van with bitcoin. The European Court of Justice has also ruled that bitcoin should be treated like currency, rather than like goods - there's an article in the Telegraph which explains it if you don't feel you can stand the excitement of the ECJ judgement... Note: when the ECJ says bitcoin transactions should be tax free, they mean buying or selling bitcoins, like any other currency - you don't have to pay VAT, for example, when you buy your holiday Euros. They don't mean buying things with bitcoin. Transactions for goods with bitcoin are taxable like anything else.

HMRC have thought about how bitcoin transactions should be treated, and the US IRS has provided guidance too. Digital currency is already here; it'll be interesting to see what happens.

When thinking about currency, it's useful to remember that since we left the gold standard, it's all pretty much a collective fantasy anyway. That's why banknotes (in the UK) say "I promise to pay the bearer the sum of..." - a banknote is technically not money itself; it's a promissory note that can be exchanged for real money. Only, of course, if everyone agrees that it works as real money, then it is real.

The same for gold, really - what's gold good for, when you get down to it? It's pretty, but you can't eat it, or build a house out of it, or keep yourself warm with it. It's only valuable because everybody agrees that it is. For that to happen, the substance must be rare, otherwise runaway inflation would cause currency collapse (excessive printing of paper money contributed to the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic of the 1920s).

Bitcoin is the same: it has worth if people agree that it does. The only issue is making sure that - because it doesn't have corporeal existence - that one bitcoin gets passed on to another person like a physical object. Thus blockchain technology.

 

[RX-79G]

If people are buying second-hand when there is an opportunity to buy new, then they obviously don't want a new book (otherwise they'd buy one).

They might not want a new version of THAT book, but may want a new "collectible" print or a related book that is only available new at that moment.

There used to be 'used' software when you bought it on CD-ROM, or cassette, like buying video cassettes or DVDs. It's only digital downloads that's a problem in that regard - a problem blockchain technology has the potential to overcome. What the digital goods industries will do about it is a different question - you may be right; they may decide that the risks of creating a legal second-hand market are greater than the disadvantages of the current pirate trade. Or they may not. We'll have to see how it shakes out.

But electronic money is legal tender in many countries: bitcoin gets publicity for its use on the darknet, but in London you can buy a burger, get hapkido or English lessons, or hire a Man with a Van with bitcoin. The European Court of Justice has also ruled that bitcoin should be treated like currency, rather than like goods - there's an article in the Telegraph which explains it if you don't feel you can stand the excitement of the ECJ judgement... Note: when the ECJ says bitcoin transactions should be tax free, they mean buying or selling bitcoins, like any other currency - you don't have to pay VAT, for example, when you buy your holiday Euros. They don't mean buying things with bitcoin. Transactions for goods with bitcoin are taxable like anything else.

HMRC have thought about how bitcoin transactions should be treated, and the US IRS has provided guidance too. Digital currency is already here; it'll be interesting to see what happens.

When thinking about currency, it's useful to remember that since we left the gold standard, it's all pretty much a collective fantasy anyway. That's why banknotes (in the UK) say "I promise to pay the bearer the sum of..." - a banknote is technically not money itself; it's a promissory note that can be exchanged for real money. Only, of course, if everyone agrees that it works as real money, then it is real.

The same for gold, really - what's gold good for, when you get down to it? It's pretty, but you can't eat it, or build a house out of it, or keep yourself warm with it. It's only valuable because everybody agrees that it is. For that to happen, the substance must be rare, otherwise runaway inflation would cause currency collapse (excessive printing of paper money contributed to the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic of the 1920s).

Bitcoin is the same: it has worth if people agree that it does. The only issue is making sure that - because it doesn't have corporeal existence - that one bitcoin gets passed on to another person like a physical object. Thus blockchain technology.

I don't think that is accurate. Programs that you can download to your PC from a source disc have required registration to work on your computer for quite some time now. The source disc does not allow you to keep cloning the program onto everyone else's machine. It is similar to DVDs have copy protection so they remain play only. Software is built to be one owner per copy, and often only own machine.

Bitcoin is not dark money - the blockchain database is open so governments and the public can watch the transactions and ownership like real money.

 

[pambaddeley]

Yes, I remember the heady days of the personal shopping experience before Amazon.

You drive into town and pay for parking. Then you go to the bookshop, and discover they haven't got what you want. You ask them to order it. If you're lucky, someone will give you a ring, a few days or a couple of weeks or more later, to tell you it's arrived. If not, you have to keep ringing them. Then when someone finally agrees that your book has arrived, you drive into town again, once more paying for parking, and collect your book. If it's there.

And then you take your book home and read it, having spent enough on petrol and parking for a least one other book. And if you count the time you've spent driving back and forth and making phone calls, and pay yourself a notional minimum wage for that time, you could buy a third book.

Strangely, I do not find myself craving the 'personal physical shopping experience'.

Admittedly, I kind of miss the special London weekend when my husband and I would go down to London and start at one end of the Charing Cross Road and work our way to the other, visiting every single bookshop as we went. Or the hours spent in Forbidden Planet, working our way from Aaronovitch to Zelazny. But it's more a sort of nostalgic thing rather than anything else; I certainly prefer online shopping for actually being able to acquire items one wants with the minimum of hassle.

Years ago I used to get a lot of stuff through the post as there were several specialist SF/fantasy dealers then. Also a lot of towns had good second hand shops, now nearly all gone now.

These days, if after a particular OUP book, Amazon and Abe Books are my first and second resorts. I do still buy new, but normally in ebook form these days as I'm trying to declutter. And I do check the charity shops which occasionally yield a goodie, and I'm a regular customer of the library. The problem with physical bookshops these days is that they aren't local and they seem to stock a very restricted selection.

 

[Martin Gill]

As far as blockchain and other similar technologies, I don't understand how the industry could possibly embrace such a technology when we all understand that there is no such thing as "used" software.

There is a market for "used" software. Search for MS Office 2010 on ebay, for example. It happens at an enterprise level as well... Used Software | Second-Hand Licences | Business Software | Licenses Supplier | usedSoft for example. Depending on exactly how you buy licences for enterprise use you may end up with lots of "old" software when you upgrade - say from one version of office to the next if you haven't gone with upgradable licences. This isn't just a desktop thing - you can even buy a second hand copy of SAP if you want. The challenge is that a lot of the enterprise software companies haven't got their heads round virtual only distribution and are still locked in licencing models that apply to the CD plus licence key world of the 2000's. Blockchain has very interesting implications for the re-sale or hand-off of ownership of digital goods - software, music, movies and books and more. It means you can tie the legal ownership, and more importantly exchange of ownership of digital goods to a contractually covered transaction.

Personally I think the more likely challenge will be that the distribution mechanisms for music and movies will move faster than companies can adjust their business models - i.e. streaming will overtake "ownership" faster than the traditional distributors can work out how to sensibly price and monetize their products in a way that's both profitable and sensible to consumers. Essentially, see Blockbusters for details.

How this applies to buying new ebooks I'm less sure. But I do think it opens up a potential second hand market.

 

[Brian G Turner]

Blockchain

I've observed here before now that ownership of music and film is moving towards the subscription model. IMO it seems inevitable that the book world will follow eventually suit.

 

[pambaddeley]

Interesting article on the 'real' stats for trad v indie, digital v paper and genres - Print vs Digital, Traditional vs Non-Traditional, Bookstore vs Online: 2016 Trade Publishing by the numbers – Author Earnings

 

[Martin Gill]

I've observed here before now that ownership of music and film is moving towards the subscription model. IMO it seems inevitable that the book world will follow eventually suit.

Its a logical conclusion for anything electronically distributed, but as consumers we are getting more comfortable with subscription models for all sorts of things - even BMWs!

 

[thaddeus6th]

Not fond of subscription models. But there we are.

 

[Overread]

I dislike subscription models as well; however I think so long as the product itself remains on sale as a permanent purchase option at a competitive rate then its ok. Music, film and TV all have subscription options, but also still have individual sales both in digital and hard-copy formats.

Adobe has pushed for Photoshop and their entire software suit to start moving away from individual sales and into a long running subscription; however there you've got rolling updates. Books, music and films don't get updates. In fact I oft thing that such markets are missing a trick there with offering upgrades - improved music quality; film added features; books getting spellcheck updates.

Of course then one runs the risk of authros who'd constantly update their books - adding new chapters; changing content; tweaking and changing all the time (and then, of course, BETA writers who'd publish an unfinished work )

 

[RX-79G]

Of course then one runs the risk of authros who'd constantly update their books - adding new chapters; changing content; tweaking and changing all the time (and then, of course, BETA writers who'd publish an unfinished work )

Are you suggesting that the original Star Wars trilogy just didn't get better and better with every new tweak?

I think the subscription model is more apt to be something like the old record club thing, where you subscribe to get future book purchases at a discounted price.

 

[Parson]

Are you suggesting that the original Star Wars trilogy just didn't get better and better with every new tweak?

I think the subscription model is more apt to be something like the old record club thing, where you subscribe to get future book purchases at a discounted price.

Sigh! a model a truly despised.

 

[RX-79G]

Sigh! a model a truly despised.

I wasn't a fan, either. But if I had an open selection of all of Amazon's books, I could see agreeing to buy a certain number a year.

 

[MWagner]

I wonder what a subscription model for books would look like. Would it be like Netflix and Spotify, where for X dollars a month you get access to a vast catalogue of material to access at your leisure? Would you have a time limit on reading the digital books? Would books go in and out of access, like shows do on Netflix? Would it be a vast library of almost all material published, like Spotify, or would each publisher have its own library of only its books?

 

[Theophania Elliott]

Well, that's pretty much what you've got with Amazon's Kindle Unlimited: you pay your £9.99 per month, and you can read as many participating books as you want. Publishers can choose whether or not to participate, and can leave at the end of a three-month stint. Participation - at present - requires the book to be exclusively available on Amazon, I think.

I can't imagine single-publisher subscription models being particularly big, except maybe for speciality publishers - but they'd have to get the price balance right. £9.99 for all-you-can-eat sounds reasonable, when you have a huge selection. £9.99 for only one publisher's offerings, where you may run out of things you want, maybe not.

 

[Parson]

Well, that's pretty much what you've got with Amazon's Kindle Unlimited: you pay your £9.99 per month, and you can read as many participating books as you want. Publishers can choose whether or not to participate, and can leave at the end of a three-month stint. Participation - at present - requires the book to be exclusively available on Amazon, I think.

I can't imagine single-publisher subscription models being particularly big, except maybe for speciality publishers - but they'd have to get the price balance right. £9.99 for all-you-can-eat sounds reasonable, when you have a huge selection. £9.99 for only one publisher's offerings, where you may run out of things you want, maybe not.

I guess we in the good ole USA get a break here. Amazon Unlimited is $9.99.

 

[MWagner]

Well, that's pretty much what you've got with Amazon's Kindle Unlimited: you pay your £9.99 per month, and you can read as many participating books as you want.

But how much coverage does Amazon Kindle Unlimited have? With Spotify, I get every album by every band I've ever listened to.

 

[Theophania Elliott]

Kindle Unlimited isn't as good as that - yet. The requirement for Amazon exclusivity is a no-no for many authors/publishers. But it does provide a model for how a book subscription service can be viable. Personally, I think that eventually, Amazon will drop the requirement for exclusivity, as more and more people become used to subscription models.

 

[Martin Gill]

With Spotify, I get every album by every band I've ever listened to.

Not quite. Some labels and artists restrict their availability on Spotify. Where Spotify excels IMO is discovery. I used to spend £20-30 a month on music back in the days of CDs. I migrated towards digital downloads but still wouldn't drop £10 on an album from a band I'd heard a couple of times on the off chance. Now I spend £7 a month and have broadened by musical bandwidth massively because I can dip in and out of things and if I don't like it, flip onto the next artist. Less mature artists win because they get exposure they would otherwise have not had.

How this translates to books I'm not yet sure. The time commitment from listening to a song to reading a book is very different. I do feel though that if I had a subscription book service I'd experiment with more newer/indie authors because again I'm not investing hard cash in something that might suck. That said, the Kindle preview function has helped there.

 

[MWagner]

Yes, Kindle preview is an excellent way to try before you buy.