Human mission to Mars by 2024 ?

[Alexa]

2024 doesn't seem far into the future. Elon Musk, SpaceX founder plans to ge humans to Mars by 2024. He even talks about creation of a city.

Now don't get me wrong. I really believe one day humans will land on Mars. Nevertheless, I'm a bit skeptical about Musk's plans.

 

[Edward M. Grant]

Musk works in Mars years, so it'll be more like 2030 in Earth time.

Technically, I'm sure we could put people on Mars in 2024 with a bunch of money and some good luck. But I don't believe there's enough time between now and then to do it safely (e.g. you'd want to fly several unmanned flights first, and you'd probably have to wait for a good window to do so).

 

[mosaix]

Would love it to happen, but I think he's underestimating the problems involved.

 

[Brian G Turner]

Yeah, I think we're getting an overdose of optimism here - but at least he's keeping the subject of space travel discussed.

Personally, I think human travel is over-rated, and that money is better ploughed into a whole slew of probes and landers instead...

 

[Vertigo]

Musk has a pretty good reputation for delivering what he promises but he does tend to deliver late against his own forecast timescales. So I think there's a good chance he'll do it but the timescales are probably a tad optimistic.

 

[Serendipity]

Musk indicates that the plane for the 2024 launch is two cargo ships and two human passenger ships, each carrying about a hundred people. I suspect the health and safety executive may have something to say about this in that they would probably like to see the cargo ships arrive safely at Mars before the humans are sent. So I really don't see the human-carriers launching before the next window of 2026.

But hey... at least he's got plans to go further and faster than NASA, or anyone else I know about. Problem will be th human health side of things - if they're going to live on Mars and not return, then bone degeneration due to gravity becomes less of a problem. That just leaves the cancer due to radiation issue. Now I know of some interesting medical research in Newcastle-upon-Tyne that might be able to help...

 

[Justin Swanton]

2024 doesn't seem far into the future. Elon Musk, SpaceX founder plans to ge humans to Mars by 2024. He even talks about creation of a city.

Now don't get me wrong. I really believe one day humans will land on Mars. Nevertheless, I'm a bit skeptical about Musk's plans.

That Mars city is sheer fantasy. In the Wiki article on Musk he affirms this: "Musk calculated that the raw materials for building a rocket actually were only 3 percent of the sales price of a rocket at the time. It was concluded that theoretically, by applying vertical integration and the modular approach from software engineering, SpaceX could cut launch price by a factor of ten and still enjoy a 70-percent gross margin.[64]" Sounds good, but to date he has not achieved that goal. Space X launches in real terms remain as costly as NASA launches.

Just getting a small crew to Mars safe and sound is an enormously expensive undertaking. Among other things the ship needs to create artificial gravity and must have adequate shielding against cosmic radiation and solar flares. The technology does not yet exist that can land a manned ship on the Martian surface - certainly not those big ferries in the video. Getting all the components for a Martian city onto Mars and supplying and maintaining that city...who's going to pay for it?

 

[Alexa]

Apparently Musk.

 

[Radrook]

I read about NASA planning it for 2032. The general impression I get is that this whole idea is so difficult that it terrorizes mankind into postponing it as much as possible.

 

[Radrook]

who's going to pay for it?

That is exactly the question that my public speaking professor asked me after I delivered a speech about how Mars could be terraformed. Since I didn't address the issue he only gave me a "B" grade.

 

[Brian G Turner]

Something interesting from Elon Musk:
Instagram post by Elon Musk • Sep 29, 2017 at 3:03am UTC

Dawn and dusk sky are blue on Mars and day sky is red.

 

[night_wrtr]

Musk has a pretty good reputation for delivering what he promises but he does tend to deliver late against his own forecast timescales. So I think there's a good chance he'll do it but the timescales are probably a tad optimistic.

I agree. He will do it, but maybe a few years off. I wouldn't doubt if he pulls it off within a couple of years of his target.

This is the same kind of reaction he got when he revealed his plan to reuse rockets and land them safely on the ground.

 

[Alexa]

Something interesting from Elon Musk:
Dawn and dusk sky are blue on Mars and day sky is red
Instagram post by Elon Musk • Sep 29, 2017 at 3:03am UTC

So martian are kinda colorblind ?

 

[J Riff]

Yeah, uhHUH, sure, sure...

 

[Lumens]

Elon Musk was mentioned in passing in the new Star Trek series as one of the pioneers of space travel.

So it must be true.

 

[J Riff]

Hehehhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, oh sorry i thot you said 1964...

 

[Robert Zwilling]

5 years later, September 8, 2024

Elon Musk is planning on a 2026 launch date.

The first uncrewed Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. That's in 2026. That would probably be pretty easy especially if the ships didn't have simulated astronauts on them, only empty shells. They could even use "used" ships. Musk plans on sending 5 ships to start with. Maybe to make multiple landing attempts. That could happen.

There is another test that will be done and that is refueling the Starships before they leave Earth Orbit. Musk is building the ship to bring the Space Station down. That ship will burn a lot of fuel as it brings down the Space Station. It could also be a fuel tanker.

If the test is only to see if it lands okay, and testing how to get back is not a major goal, then the next flight with people would be 2028.

If they wanted to test how flying back to Earth works, that would add another 2 years before manned flights starts because it takes around 21 months for a round trip without staying at Mars for long.

He also says "flight rates will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self sustaining city in about 20 years. Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet." This might mean that sooner rather than later, men and women will be flying to Mars as well as animals. Which animals is Musk planning on taking, or are only people featured in this grand scheme.

According to NASA, a one-way trip to the Red Planet would take about nine months. If you wanted to make it a round-trip, all in all, it would take about 21 months as you will need to wait about three months on Mars to make sure Earth and Mars are in a suitable location to make the trip back home.

The time to get to Mars can be as little as 45 days with experimental propulsion systems and goes up to 9 months with traditional chemical rockets. For rockets that don't have to slow down as they only fly by, they can get to Mars in 155 days as Viking 6 did, or Viking 7 which reached Mars in 128 days.

 

[BAYLOR]

5 years later, September 8, 2024

Elon Musk is planning on a 2026 launch date.

The first uncrewed Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. That's in 2026. That would probably be pretty easy especially if the ships didn't have simulated astronauts on them, only empty shells. They could even use "used" ships. Musk plans on sending 5 ships to start with. Maybe to make multiple landing attempts. That could happen.

There is another test that will be done and that is refueling the Starships before they leave Earth Orbit. Musk is building the ship to bring the Space Station down. That ship will burn a lot of fuel as it brings down the Space Station. It could also be a fuel tanker.

If the test is only to see if it lands okay, and testing how to get back is not a major goal, then the next flight with people would be 2028.

If they wanted to test how flying back to Earth works, that would add another 2 years before manned flights starts because it takes around 21 months for a round trip without staying at Mars for long.

He also says "flight rates will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self sustaining city in about 20 years. Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet." This might mean that sooner rather than later, men and women will be flying to Mars as well as animals. Which animals is Musk planning on taking, or are only people featured in this grand scheme.

According to NASA, a one-way trip to the Red Planet would take about nine months. If you wanted to make it a round-trip, all in all, it would take about 21 months as you will need to wait about three months on Mars to make sure Earth and Mars are in a suitable location to make the trip back home.

The time to get to Mars can be as little as 45 days with experimental propulsion systems and goes up to 9 months with traditional chemical rockets. For rockets that don't have to slow down as they only fly by, they can get to Mars in 155 days as Viking 6 did, or Viking 7 which reached Mars in 128 days.

A number issues with that one , oxygen , water food supply for the trip there and back which incudes the time on Mars required for any exploration. It might not be possible to carry enough of that hose things for such a journey. Then there's the radiation and micrometeorite bombardment of the ship to consider. Also loss of bone mass of the crew as a result a lengthy duration of the mission .


A manned mission may simply not be possible with our current level of technology.

 

[Orcadian]

Musk is out to lunch on when a crewed Mars mission will be possible. He is still stuck in a teenage 'my enormous rocket' fantasy. We have so, SO much to learn and develop before we can truly leave Earth. There are the self-contained life-support systems, whose development is in its infancy. Then there is the expense & difficulty of launching enough mass from Earth. My space science colleagues tend to think that a Mars mission will eventually launch from the Moon. And if they are right, we have first to learn how to live on the Moon, extract from there the materials we need and assemble them into an interplanetary spacecraft. And another obstacle to rapid development is the parlous state of trust and cooperation on Earth. It seems we would rather squander our resources on fighting each other and trashing each other's scientific achievements. As a species we have a lot of growing up to do.

My guess: not this century. (I realise I am throwing down a gauntlet to some )

 

[Robert Zwilling]

By sending uncrewed ships the human element is removed so it is entirely possible. Sending people could simply be talk. The next step could be sending robots in place of people. The radio signal time delay is 3 minutes to 22 minutes. This would make it difficult to operate robots by remote control. An external computer would have to go with them to give them enhanced capabilities.