Human mission to Mars by 2024 ?

Musk is out to lunch on when a crewed Mars mission will be possible. He is still stuck in a teenage 'my enormous rocket' fantasy. We have so, SO much to learn and develop before we can truly leave Earth. There are the self-contained life-support systems, whose development is in its infancy. Then there is the expense & difficulty of launching enough mass from Earth. My space science colleagues tend to think that a Mars mission will eventually launch from the Moon. And if they are right, we have first to learn how to live on the Moon, extract from there the materials we need and assemble them into an interplanetary spacecraft. And another obstacle to rapid development is the parlous state of trust and cooperation on Earth. It seems we would rather squander our resources on fighting each other and trashing each other's scientific achievements. As a species we have a lot of growing up to do.

My guess: not this century. (I realise I am throwing down a gauntlet to some ;) )
I agree with you about Musk being out to lunch and the technical difficulties of a reasonable attempt to get to [and back from] Mars. But [currently] Musk has the money to do whatever he feels like. All he really needs is a crew that can be considered expendable and a site or two willing to host the launch[es].
So while I think it is still a few years off and if his interest holds, I can see Musk funded mission to Mars.
His ego would demand it...
 
5 years later, September 8, 2024

Elon Musk is planning on a 2026 launch date.

The first uncrewed Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. That's in 2026. That would probably be pretty easy especially if the ships didn't have simulated astronauts on them, only empty shells. They could even use "used" ships. Musk plans on sending 5 ships to start with. Maybe to make multiple landing attempts. That could happen.

There is another test that will be done and that is refueling the Starships before they leave Earth Orbit. Musk is building the ship to bring the Space Station down. That ship will burn a lot of fuel as it brings down the Space Station. It could also be a fuel tanker.

If the test is only to see if it lands okay, and testing how to get back is not a major goal, then the next flight with people would be 2028.

If they wanted to test how flying back to Earth works, that would add another 2 years before manned flights starts because it takes around 21 months for a round trip without staying at Mars for long.

He also says "flight rates will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self sustaining city in about 20 years. Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet." This might mean that sooner rather than later, men and women will be flying to Mars as well as animals. Which animals is Musk planning on taking, or are only people featured in this grand scheme.

According to NASA, a one-way trip to the Red Planet would take about nine months. If you wanted to make it a round-trip, all in all, it would take about 21 months as you will need to wait about three months on Mars to make sure Earth and Mars are in a suitable location to make the trip back home.

The time to get to Mars can be as little as 45 days with experimental propulsion systems and goes up to 9 months with traditional chemical rockets. For rockets that don't have to slow down as they only fly by, they can get to Mars in 155 days as Viking 6 did, or Viking 7 which reached Mars in 128 days.

I'm all for thinking as a SF fan and having lots of optimistic misty-eyed thoughts about space exploration, but putting my realist hat on I just can't see anything happening on the timescales you've stated above.

Sure, throwing an un-crewed ship into Mars Orbit and perhaps even involving landing, as you state fine, nothing unusual there. Even starting in 2026 (although Musk says a lot of things that never become true - when did he say he'd have people on the moon?) NASA have been doing this for decades.

If we take his previous comments I'd interpret him saying we'd could possibly get humans to Mars by 2028 with the tech he'll have. (Although I'm not sure about getting them back or if they'd be back in good shape; a return journey from Mars, unless you've got some amazing propulsion system, that we don't have working right now will expose them to a lot of radiation.) I'd imagine that a better prepared and protected mission will be far further into the future - also it'll be a 'Mars shot' for a quick visit rather than any base building as well.

But a 'self-sustained city on Mars' in 20 years. I believe that's serious far too much techno-optimism! I think we're just scratching the surface on building the tools to allow that and two decades ain't going to cut it. I think an early permanent base on Mars will be the Earth's biggest money-pit for decades and more. It's going to require huge levels of investment in that direction to get started there as well as constant supply to keep it going.

And that is the problem. What is the economic case for having a self-sustained colony on Mars? Sure, if we are thinking of tens of thousands or more years into the future, then not 'having all our eggs in one basket' seems a no-brainer. But (even a self-sufficient) city on Mars if it appears in 2050. Where's the ROI?

Being a bit more pessimistic Elon's financial star has waned a bit, and possibly dip even more, but I won't get into why here as it starts to get linked into politics. And that'll probably depress the more optimistic goals he's stated above.

Personally I'd go for a small human base for science, exploration and for the reason 'well it's there, so let's prove we can do it' on Mars eventually, hopefully before I die. Instead if I were a Bond-level mega-billionaire, I'd go the Bezos route and go for orbitals and O'Neil cylinders as the main goal with asteroid mining and processing for building said structures in orbit or space. This seems to me a far better long-term bet for human survival and allowing far more possibilities than sticking ourselves down another gravity well.
 
I'm all for Musk travelling to another planet, via a big rocket. I believe that there would be no shortage of volunteers to light the blue touch paper.
 
By sending uncrewed ships the human element is removed so it is entirely possible. Sending people could simply be talk. The next step could be sending robots in place of people. The radio signal time delay is 3 minutes to 22 minutes. This would make it difficult to operate robots by remote control. An external computer would have to go with them to give them enhanced capabilities.

Thats both a doable and more practical approach.
 
An unsuccesful manned mission to Mars ,(with the almost inevitable death of the crew) would set the programme back years - if not decades. That is why it will not happen in our lifetimes.

But what I find far more interesting is the unmanned mission to Europa. Whether or not life is found there will have a considerable consequences. Personally, I think it highly likely that proof pf past or preseny life will be found. And things will never be the same again.
 
I think there is life deep down inside of Mars, not near the surface, like the cave life that is cut off from the rest of the Earth, or like microbes living 3 miles down, maybe as deep as 12 miles. If life is found on another planet or moon I think that would accelerate the efforts of a lot of space programs. From ancient times on there were a lot of boats and ships that sank or disappeared without a trace and that never stopped people from sailing anywhere.
 
I think there is life deep down inside of Mars, not near the surface, like the cave life that is cut off from the rest of the Earth, or like microbes living 3 miles down, maybe as deep as 12 miles. If life is found on another planet or moon I think that would accelerate the efforts of a lot of space programs. From ancient times on there were a lot of boats and ships that sank or disappeared without a trace and that never stopped people from sailing anywhere.

The thing is though that back then a small improvement is vessel building and navigation wss all that was required. And all the 'here be dragons' were imaginary.

The perils of space travel aren't, and are likely to be if anything even more perilous than we think.

Also back then, life was much shorter and cheaper. People were prepared to risk their livesvin order to make money and to achieve fame. Nobody was going to stop a merchant sending a crew to almost certain death. Nowadays, the cost of even one human life in order to colonise Mars is seen as too much.
 
Nobody was going to stop a merchant sending a crew to almost certain death. Nowadays, the cost of even one human life in order to colonise Mars is seen as too much.
I'm sure @paranoid marvin that if Musk asked for 100 volunteers for his first attempt at colonising Mars there would be enough nutters for the trip to be over subscribed several times.
 
Yes such a trip would probably be uninsurable, but Musk could just underwrite it himself.
The volunteers would have to sign utterly secure declarations giving away any liabilities or rights to sue.
I'm sure there are lawyer out there that could rise to the challenge.
Just think of the Disney and Uber contracts that mean you can't take them to court but to arbitration in the event of an accident.
 
If a bus driver got all of his passengers to sign a waiver confirming thwy were happy with him driving them over the Grand Canyon, would that be permissable?

It's an interesting question, which only ever seems to when it's governments doing the sending.

Lilely there would be years of solicitors and red tape before it could ever get off the ground (so to speak).

Space is probably the most hostile environment to live and work in. Practically everything is doing its best to try to kill you; and that's only the hazards we are aware of. Likely when humans get beyond the Moon, we will find lots more interesting ways to die.
 
Think about all the space missions that have taken place already. This would be the same. In terms of the danger I doubt it's more dangerous than the early Mercury and Apollo missions, though the dangers would be different. People have already stayed on the ISS for longer than the each trip would take (travel time; not including waiting for the next window whilst on Mars). However they are still at least partially shielded by the Earth's magnetosphere (I think). But they are not shielded from micro meteorites and have indeed been struck by them. The technology is planned to be proved on moon runs setting up a base there which I believe SpaceX has already been contracted for.

As far as the insurance goes you might find this interesting:

Note that the insurance companies were even offering insurance for free on the early missions so long as they got the publicity which was compatible with NASA at the time but I would bet that Musk would bite their hands off!

All told as was said earlier if Musk said he was going tomorrow and everyone had to sign a total waiver for all responsibility then I think you would have a storm of highly qualified scientist breaking down his door to be on the crew. That sort of desire for adventure and new frontiers is still very much alive on Earth.

Bottom line; I think you might be surprised by how soon this might happen. Not quite as soon as Musk's ambitions maybe but maybe not quite as far off as the pessimists might predict.
 
But NASA and others are government agencies, whereas Musk is a private venture. Governments can send people to war to kill and be killed; private individuals (as uet) can't.

A human hasn't left Earth low orbit in over 50 years. That's 2000 km. The furthest man has ever travelled is the Moon - 360,000 km. Mars is 169,000,000 km away...

There's been enough near misses and disasters in 'short haul' flights to convince me that we are a long, long way away from ever sending people to Mars and realistically expecting them to return. And if they do, I wonder what effect 2-3 years in space will have had on their bodies and minds. I'm not so sute many scientists would volunteer as things are today

The brave souls who 'conquered' Everest and the other high peaks dod so knowong that their wits and skills would give them a good chance of surviving the attempt. Death was always a possibility in such treacherous conditions, but with the right equipment it could be achieved. And if slthings started to go badly, they could always turn back.

With space, you are solely reliant on the vessel in which you are situated. Yes, brains and ingenuity can sometimes save the day, but most 'problems' are fatal ones. And there's no turning back...


I think we have to agree to disagree, but I hope that you are right and that I am wrong. It would be joyous to see a human land on Mars.
 
Musk would probably cover his costs by selling the Reality TV rights - Love Planet!

And it would very quickly become one of the most watched shows on the planet.
 
Time line for space exploration for the next 7 years seems to be primarily driven by the deorbiting of the International Space Station, which is coming down in 2031. NASA expects multiple space stations by various groups to have been built and in orbit by then, so as to not experience a time when Earth does not have a space station(s) in orbit.

Musk has the contract to build a ship to control the deorbiting of the space station. It will be modeled after the Dragon Capsule but have a total of 46 engines and be carrying 35,000 pounds of fuel. It will be launched 1-1/2 years before the station is coming down. The current schedule puts that somewhere between 2029 and 2030. It will be destroyed along with the space station.

Projected replacement space stations are an international effort but it is SpaceX that is handling the day to day operations of getting things and people into space and back to Earth again. So while Musk says he is going to Mars and skipping the Moon, his companies are providing the means for orbiting Earth and lunar explorations.

The Lunar Gateway Station, which will orbit the Moon, is a collaboration of Five space agencies, including NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), and the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC).

Gateway by Frederik Pohl is a story where an abandoned alien space ship fleet is found on an asteroid and people can take ships that are on autopilot out and see where it goes, either bringing back treasures or maybe never coming back.

Gateway will orbit the Moon and be launched and set up for use with a lot of help from SpaceX. It has 2 parts so far, a propulsion module, and a living quarters module for astronauts exploring the Moon called HALO, Habitation and Logistics Outpost. The welds have been completed and are being tested. If successful, the module will be transported from Italy to Arizona, where it will be outfitted for space. The propulsion module is being built and will be attached to the HALO and will be launched using a SpaceX rocket.

The launch date is projected to be December 2027. NASA says it should be earlier than that, especially if it is to be used in conjunction with the Artemis program to put astronauts on the Moon, which supposedly will have already started.

Meanwhile, NASA is studying several different solutions for the problem of how to cope with the particularly abrasive lunar dust. For such tiny particles it's a big problem for people and equipment in semi permanent lunar dwellings.
Various solutions are being tested:
Electrostatic Dust Shields (EDS) for preventing dust from sticking
Specialized Brushes to remove the dust
Slippery Coatings to prevent dust from sticking
Ultrasonic Waves to sonically brush off dust
Liquid Nitrogen Spray to was off the dust
Airlock Integration: Implementing dust removal systems in the airlocks(s) so the dust doesn't get into living quarters or equipment inside the space station.

Other stations that orbit the earth are being put forward by private industry.

Two of them use inflatable habitats.

Starlab Space Station is for low Earth orbit, a US venture operated by Nanoracks, Voyager Space, and Lockheed Martin. It has become a joint venture involving companies representing all Western ISS partners.
The main structure consists of a large inflatable habitat of 340 cubic meters that is being built by Airbus, a French company, that replaces the original Lockheed Martin design.
It is supposed to be on schedule, more or less, and within budget. With space for 4 astronauts, it was originally scheduled for launch in 2027, the date is now 2028.

Axion Space Station, a private US company run by former NASA members and astronauts, it aims to have its own space station up and running before the International Space Station comes down. They have run private missions to the Space station using SpaceX equipment to get there and back to Earth. They have agreements with European Space Agency (ESA) members for future flights. Their plan is to assemble the Axion space station composed of 4 sections at the original space station, and then launch it from there. They are behind schedule and may only have some of the sections docked at the space station before the space station is decommissioned. The first section is expected to be launched in 2026, 2 years behind schedule. Axion is interested in training people for in-space research, in-space manufacturing, and space exploration.

Orbital Reef Space Station, this was Jeff Bezos vision of a mixed use business park with tourist attractions. All the space station projects envision a bustling tourist trade. The Orbital Reef Space Station does not appear to a viable option anymore, as Blue Horizon is looking to other horizons farther away, such as landing on the Moon, for which Blue Horizon has a 3.4 billion dollar contract to build lunar lander. One of the other companies involved was Sierra Space which is more interested in developing a space plane capable of flying out to space stations. The space plane was envisioned by NASA as a way of transporting cargo to and from the International space Station. It is behind schedule and over budget with the first flight not expected until 2025.

There are other companies and countries planning on building space stations as well, but an interesting one is Vast, founded by billionaire Jed McCaleb, who made a fortune in crypto currency. He envisions a space station with artificial gravity. The station(s) will be setup for 4 people and will not be self sufficient to start with, needing replenishing every 30 days of use, which is how long the station is leased for. It will be used to conduct scientific tests, microgravity experiments, space manufacturing, artificial gravity, and tourism.

Its first orbiting station, called Haven-1 is expected to be launched the second half of 2025 by SpaceX. It is set up for leasing 30 day missions with internet supplied by StarLink services. The first launch, called VAST-1, is scheduled for launch no sooner than August 2025. One of the experiments to be performed is to fire the stations rockets so that the station starts rotating to test the concept of artificial gravity on board a space station.

Their second station, Haven-2 will be 15 meters long, compared to 10 meters for Haven-1. They say it will be launched in 2028 to replace the International Space Station in 2030. They expect to get a contract from NASA in 2026 to provide a replacement space station for the International Space Station.

The Chinese Space Station, started in 2021 and completed in 2022, is much smaller than the International Space Station but they will be adding 3 more modules for a total of 6. They are constructing a a huge, Hubble-like space telescope, named Xuntian ("survey the heavens") which will share the space station's orbit and be able to dock with it for repairs, maintenance and possibly upgrades. The first repair station in space. It will have a field of view 300 times greater than the Hubble, and is expected to survey 40% of the sky over 10 years using its huge, 2.5-billion-pixel camera.
 
Musk is out to lunch on when a crewed Mars mission will be possible. He is still stuck in a teenage 'my enormous rocket' fantasy. We have so, SO much to learn and develop before we can truly leave Earth. There are the self-contained life-support systems, whose development is in its infancy. Then there is the expense & difficulty of launching enough mass from Earth. My space science colleagues tend to think that a Mars mission will eventually launch from the Moon. And if they are right, we have first to learn how to live on the Moon, extract from there the materials we need and assemble them into an interplanetary spacecraft. And another obstacle to rapid development is the parlous state of trust and cooperation on Earth. It seems we would rather squander our resources on fighting each other and trashing each other's scientific achievements. As a species we have a lot of growing up to do.

My guess: not this century. (I realise I am throwing down a gauntlet to some ;) )

Musk is out to lunch on a lot of things.
 

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