Human mission to Mars by 2024... ?

What does confuse me a little is how we could go to the Moon 50 years ago, but we are struggling to do so now. Artemis II has now been postponed until 2026 over safety issues. Surely we already know the technology to get there and back safely, as it's been done several times in the 1960s and 70s.
My suspicion is that this is a little like modern cars. Once upon a time you could, and did, drive your car through quite deep fords (I'm not sure we have any left now on public roads. And they really could be quite deep sometimes. But there was very little to go wrong. Now, you go through a puddle a bit quick and you're liable to blow the electronics. The more sophistication in our technology, the more chances there are for failure.
 
My suspicion is that this is a little like modern cars. Once upon a time you could, and did, drive your car through quite deep fords (I'm not sure we have any left now on public roads. And they really could be quite deep sometimes. But there was very little to go wrong. Now, you go through a puddle a bit quick and you're liable to blow the electronics. The more sophistication in our technology, the more chances there are for failure.
Yes, there is some truth to this. Most of our progress in the last 50 years has been in certain fields; micro electronics (ie computing) and arguably bio tech. But getting to the Moon (or even Mars) remains a huge electro-mechanical challenge. And those two fields of knowledge (electrical engineering and mechanical engineering) are just about done. I mean our discoveries and progress in those areas are complete and finished. Same soon for chemical engineering. The old assumption that we would continue to advance technologically in an almost linear fashion was very much mistaken. This is the reason we are not going to Mars (and never will). What was impossible 50 years ago remains impossible for the exact same reasons. At this point, I'd be happy if we can just hold on to our existing levels of knowledge and understanding. Unfortunately there are very real signs of regression.
 
Not realistic. What use is shielding that gradually reduces as you consume your fuel? Use half your fuel and get twice the radiation exposure?
That wouldn't be your entire fuel capacity, just your reserve. But you could circulate it with the rest of the fuel, use it for cooling or make it part of the astronauts "hydration cycle". The point is it would not be dead weight but something useful.

And it would be easy to move it to areas that are under stronger bombardment.
 
Yes, there is some truth to this. Most of our progress in the last 50 years has been in certain fields; micro electronics (ie computing) and arguably bio tech. But getting to the Moon (or even Mars) remains a huge electro-mechanical challenge. And those two fields of knowledge (electrical engineering and mechanical engineering) are just about done. I mean our discoveries and progress in those areas are complete and finished. Same soon for chemical engineering. The old assumption that we would continue to advance technologically in an almost linear fashion was very much mistaken. This is the reason we are not going to Mars (and never will). What was impossible 50 years ago remains impossible for the exact same reasons. At this point, I'd be happy if we can just hold on to our existing levels of knowledge and understanding. Unfortunately there are very real signs of regression.
We could have gone to Mars 50 years ago - just not with chemical rockets. That is an artificial impediment.

Moving around the solar system safely comes down to the amount of mass you can dedicate to the vehicle and the amount of energy it takes to move that mass. There's plenty of both available.
 
We could have gone to Mars 50 years ago - just not with chemical rockets. That is an artificial impediment.

Moving around the solar system safely comes down to the amount of mass you can dedicate to the vehicle and the amount of energy it takes to move that mass. There's plenty of both available.
Don't forget, also, the amount of reaction mass required to move the payload; the rocket, crew and cargo. That reaction mass is frequently just the spent fuel but as we move towards nuclear drives then they need a reaction mass to expel to give the thrust. You can have all the energy in the solar system but be unable to move if you don't have reaction mass.
 
Don't forget, also, the amount of reaction mass required to move the payload; the rocket, crew and cargo. That reaction mass is frequently just the spent fuel but as we move towards nuclear drives then they need a reaction mass to expel to give the thrust. You can have all the energy in the solar system but be unable to move if you don't have reaction mass.
I wasn't neglecting the reaction mass, I was saying that non-chemical motors use reaction mass much more efficiently because they might dip into our friend E=MC^2. If you had perfect efficiency the difference is 100,000 to 1.
 
I wasn't neglecting the reaction mass, I was saying that non-chemical motors use reaction mass much more efficiently because they might dip into our friend E=MC^2. If you had perfect efficiency the difference is 100,000 to 1.
You miss my point if you convert all the mass to energy (E=MC^2) then you go nowhere. The energy alone will do nothing except maybe make you rather hot. But if that energy is used to eject mass then you have to have reaction mass, nothing to do with the energy used in the nuclear reaction (E=MC^2), which only states how much energy is contained within mass.
 
You miss my point if you convert all the mass to energy (E=MC^2) then you go nowhere. The energy alone will do nothing except maybe make you rather hot. But if that energy is used to eject mass then you have to have reaction mass, nothing to do with the energy used in the nuclear reaction (E=MC^2), which only states how much energy is contained within mass.
I didn't miss the point. If you use a nuclear reaction to excite and eject reaction mass, the mass is going to be moving at a much higher rate than if you used a chemical reaction. Which is why a ship that is moved by detonating small nuclear bombs (1950s Orion) can carry a very small ratio of fuel weight to ship weight than a chemical rocket, yet achieve much higher velocity and range.
 
Moving around the solar system safely comes down to the amount of mass you can dedicate to the vehicle and the amount of energy it takes to move that mass. There's plenty of both available.
This was your original statement. It misses the concept of reaction mass (note that is not the same 'reaction' as a nuclear reaction). It doesn't matter whether it is a chemical explosion or nuclear, that is just the energy part. Then you use that energy to eject mass, that's the reaction mass part. Completely separate to the mass of the vehicle. The nuclear reaction converts a very small amount of mass very efficiently into a large amount of energy. But that small amount of mass cannot move your vehicle as it is now pure energy ie. massless. So you need additional mass, reaction mass, to actually propel your vehicle. The E=MC^2 has no meaning for that mass all that matters is momentum; how much mass and how fast it is expelled.
 
This was your original statement. It misses the concept of reaction mass (note that is not the same 'reaction' as a nuclear reaction). It doesn't matter whether it is a chemical explosion or nuclear, that is just the energy part. Then you use that energy to eject mass, that's the reaction mass part. Completely separate to the mass of the vehicle. The nuclear reaction converts a very small amount of mass very efficiently into a large amount of energy. But that small amount of mass cannot move your vehicle as it is now pure energy ie. massless. So you need additional mass, reaction mass, to actually propel your vehicle. The E=MC^2 has no meaning for that mass all that matters is momentum; how much mass and how fast it is expelled.
My posts must confuse you because you think that a nuclear reaction is massless or something. But a proton ejected from a nuclear detonation has mass and velocity, and if that velocity is thousands of times what a chemical reaction can do, then it's momentum is thousands of times as much.

The mass loss from a fission explosion is around .1 percent.


I didn't spell all that out in my initial post because we all graduated high school and understand we aren't talking about Star Trek. Of course ships need reaction mass.
 
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Right. So let me complicate things further. The acceleration of the spacecraft by chemical means is already approaching what the human body can stand. There is potential to both use less reaction mass (because it's momentum will be greater) and/or increase the acceleration rate with similar reaction mass. I'm just not sure how this can be controlled to get the desired result. There is surely a minimum size for a nuclear explosion (due to slow neutron chain reaction requirements).
 
Efforts to get to the Moon are completely different from going to Mars and need not be linked together as to what will be accomplished in the near future. The Moon has been done by chemical rockets and will again be done, all by established technology. Mars is very far away and the distance does present unique problems. Although long before the Atlantic crossings that commercialized the Americas, people were using small boats to cross the vast expanse of the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans, perhaps with no clear idea of how to get back again. What could happen with Mars is the first voyagers will be robots, AstroBees, who won't care about harsh conditions, long trips, and being compensated for what they do. A Mars mission is the perfect test for robots and removes the entire fragility factor of the human condition from the equation. They could even build the bases before people even get there. Of course, this assumes that the age of clever robots is just around the corner as has been proclaimed for a long time now. India has plans to use a robot, Vyomitras , to man it's first space vehicle's test flights. There's no reason why it couldn't become part of the crew.
 
Right. So let me complicate things further. The acceleration of the spacecraft by chemical means is already approaching what the human body can stand. There is potential to both use less reaction mass (because it's momentum will be greater) and/or increase the acceleration rate with similar reaction mass. I'm just not sure how this can be controlled to get the desired result. There is surely a minimum size for a nuclear explosion (due to slow neutron chain reaction requirements).
I don't believe this is an issue at all. A small motor fired for a long time produces similar crossing time results to a large motor fired briefly. No power source we know of will produce 1G or more for longer than hours.
 
Efforts to get to the Moon are completely different from going to Mars and need not be linked together as to what will be accomplished in the near future. The Moon has been done by chemical rockets and will again be done, all by established technology. Mars is very far away and the distance does present unique problems. Although long before the Atlantic crossings that commercialized the Americas, people were using small boats to cross the vast expanse of the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans, perhaps with no clear idea of how to get back again. What could happen with Mars is the first voyagers will be robots, AstroBees, who won't care about harsh conditions, long trips, and being compensated for what they do. A Mars mission is the perfect test for robots and removes the entire fragility factor of the human condition from the equation. They could even build the bases before people even get there. Of course, this assumes that the age of clever robots is just around the corner as has been proclaimed for a long time now. India has plans to use a robot, Vyomitras , to man it's first space vehicle's test flights. There's no reason why it couldn't become part of the crew.

If going to the Moon is like getting out of bed, then going to Mars is getting out of bed, dressed, have breakfast, drive to the supermarket, do the weekly shop snd then get back home.

If we can't get the Moon on a regular basis, we have no chance of getting to Mars and back.

I think the least of concerns is the fuel used to get there and back. We can send drones, we can send vehicles to cover the surface. But we have yet to prove that we can keep a human being sane and healthy in space for 3 years. Because as soon as they become ill, even with something as minor as toothache, the mission takes on an altogether different perspective.

And that's before we become truly aware of what harmful things are waiting to ravage our bodies once we travel outside of the Earth's protection.
 
To be honest, I think the title of this thread says it all, started as it was back in 2017. We are nowhere nearer to Mars now than we were back then, although we are nearer a return to the Moon.
Not really any closer to the Moon. We don't have a viable rocket like the Saturn V. No orbiter and no lander. Do we even have a valid space suit for the surface? So much work to be done.
 
Not really any closer to the Moon. We don't have a viable rocket like the Saturn V. No orbiter and no lander. Do we even have a valid space suit for the surface? So much work to be done.
Unless a miracle happens in the next four days, either we should close this thread...

...or rename it "Human Mission to the Moon by 2027 ?" as that's the date Wikipedia has for Artemis III.

Honestly, that feels a tad optimistic given all that's happening right now.
 
We don't have a viable rocket like the Saturn V. No orbiter and no lander.
The Chinese are working on an interesting way of getting to the Moon. Instead of putting everything into one super ship and going to the Moon from Earth and then back to Earth they plan on using their space station as a staging location for their lunar mission. A couple of trips up to the station to get everything organized. Then a trip to the Moon, then back to the station again. It sounds practical.

Could call it Current Space Travel Rumors
 
The Chinese are working on an interesting way of getting to the Moon. Instead of putting everything into one super ship and going to the Moon from Earth and then back to Earth they plan on using their space station as a staging location for their lunar mission. A couple of trips up to the station to get everything organized. Then a trip to the Moon, then back to the station again. It sounds practical.

Could call it Current Space Travel Rumors
Odds on the Chinese are going to get there next. No doubt in my mind.
 

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