Kelpie said:
Twenty years ago (and I know that figure is accurate, because I can compute the date according to certain events in my own life) there was a huge fantasy boom, during which all the genre publishers bought up everything in sight. A great many highly original works by new authors were published at that time and into the early 90's. In the US, Ace, for instance, introduced new authors about every month with their Ace Fantasy Specials. Unfortunately, many of these books sold very poorly, and the authors either disappeared or else held on by their fingernails for a few more years and then disappeared (although a few came back under different names).
What happened, I believe, was that all these books divided up the (already limited) readers looking for "something different," by providing so many different somethings that no one could grab a hold of a fad and ride it to success. Authors like Brooks and Eddings, on the other hand, survived and continued to flourish because they reliably produced what most readers would reliably buy.
Since then, various trends have come and gone -- "Steampunk" is one that comes immediately to mind. What happens with these trends is that everyone who is looking for something new is pretty much reading (and writing) books in line with the latest fad, and the books sell well enough to create buzz and keep the writers of those books in business until another trend comes along, and everyone fades into the midlist. I feel reasonably confident that the "New Weird" will come and go in the same way. Meanwhile, the Brookses and the Eddingses continue to sell much as always.
That seems pretty accurate. Generic fantasy was something reliable for readers and publishers, and the original fantasy novels slowly disappeared. An example - who here has read Michael Swanwick's the Iron Dragon's Daughter?
Now who's read Robert Jordan's the Eye of the World?
I'd expect a lot more have read the latter, even here, where we explore a number of the more obscure writer's, but for the general reader, the difference will be even more pronounced.
I disagree that New Weird will go the same way, for a couple of reasons.
1) There's been a move away from traditional epic fantasy - people have become disillusioned with Eddings, Jordan, Goodkind etc. Where have they moved to? Mainly to Martin, but Bakker and Erikson have also got quite a bit of support. They show much darker stories, and people often find they want more of these. As it is, within epic fantasy there isn't that much, and people won't have heard of most of the authors. But they may hear the name Mieville, or the name Vandermeer, and so, not realising what they are (myself an example here, seeing Mieville's the Scar on sale expecting it to be epic fantasy), pick it up, and get hooked with New Weird. I doubt it'll ever be as popular as traditional epic fantasy, but I think that with hybrid authors (like Swainston) more are being attracted to New Weird and there'll be enough to survive.
2) Less to do with New Weird surviving and more to do with all other fantasy subgenres:
the Fantasy Masterworks collection by Gollancz
Its existence proves your first point - it has a number of novels from the 1980s and early '90s, and the masterworks series is supposed to be a collection of the best fantasy novels that are also out of print or very difficult to obtain. It shows what happened to original fantasy novels if books published only 10 years ago are now very difficult to obtain otherwise. But its existence means that many fantasy readers now have the opportunity to read a lot more widely within the genre. A lot of people who become disillusioned with epic fantasy don't realise that it's only one subgenre of many. The Masterworks series helps to prevent this. I know that it isn't available in many countries yet, but I hope that publishers in the US for example follow Gollancz's lead.
I think New Weird will always remain a niche market - it won't ever be the dominant force in fantasy, because of Tolkien's influence - but I think that in the near future, it looks like it will grow. It seems like you're suggesting it would go the same way as New Wave (almost disappeared in fantasy now), but there are a few things you have to remember about that movement. It was mainly a science fiction movement - that's where it's main influence is today, and in fantasy there were only a few authors in the first place who were a part of it (mainly Moorcock and Zelazny). New Weird has had a much greater base of support, and stronger foundations in fantasy than New Wave ever did - it's set to survive, even if not to grow hugely.