# Moon base



## Harpo (Feb 4, 2013)

I'm surprised there isn't already any kind of moon base discussion on here.

So I'm starting one now - what do you think about the idea/potential of a moon base?

Could it be made using 3D printers?
http://www.space.com/19600-moon-base-concept-3d-printing-photos.html

http://blogs.wsj.com/tech-europe/2013/02/04/print-your-own-moon-base/


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## Huttman (Feb 6, 2013)

Please make Eagles, please make Eagles, please make Eagles...


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## Venusian Broon (Feb 9, 2013)

Harpo said:


> So I'm starting one now - what do you think about the idea/potential of a moon base?


 
Well I'll take the brutal economic line and say that we'll only build one when we have a sound commerical reason to exploit substance X or Y on the moon *and *robotics/autonomous systems can't handle it (although I suspect they were remain cheaper, safer and efficent enough to make human habitation of the moon pointless.)

Possibly it might make sense to 'practice' and study human physiology if we are intent on getting to Mars - but I doubt we would seriously at that point want to maintain a permanent colony there. (But who knows what the future will bring.)



Huttman said:


> Please make Eagles, please make Eagles, please make Eagles...


 
LOL 

I too am of the age where a moon landscape would be infinitely improved by the sight of an Eagle slowly rising from its underground hanger on its cross shaped landing pad.


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## thaddeus6th (Feb 9, 2013)

Venusian, is that brutal, or just common sense?

Unless there's an economic/scientific advantage there won't be one. It'd be interesting if we had a space tourism industry, but I don't know how that could be cost-effective.


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## Venusian Broon (Feb 9, 2013)

thaddeus6th said:


> Venusian, is that brutal, or just common sense?
> 
> Unless there's an economic/scientific advantage there won't be one. It'd be interesting if we had a space tourism industry, but I don't know how that could be cost-effective.


 
When I say 'brutal economic' I should qualify this by saying - it will only be done if there's a clear short term profit achievable within an acceptable level of risk*. And for something like the moon base I see no other dimension to it (I think any scientific advantages can be got elsewhere or by unmanned missions)

A lot of the rest of the space industry has however, historically and currently, been driven by to some extent other considerations than the purely economic i.e. Miltary use, Pure Science and 'Because it's there'

Of course things like military power, security and scientific research (even in esoteric subjects) also benefit a nations economic well-being, both directly and indirectly so its a complex process to _really _quantify. Sometimes by taking a gamble you discover something amazing. 


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* I should also point out that economic rational need not be common sense; projections and expectations that seem rock solid one day can easily be shown to be castles in the air later. We're still suffering from a bunch of mass delusions within the banking world that, with hindsight, a 'common sense' person should have seen coming from the start.


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## Galacticdefender (Feb 12, 2013)

And that is where people like Elon Musk come in. Space exploration will be profitable within our lifetimes most likely because of companies like Spacex. Also Elon has stated that he started Spacex with the goal in mind of making Humanity a multi-planet species, so he definitely doesn't only care about money. There will be a moon base soon enough I believe. I also would not be surprised if the first man on Mars is put there by a commercial venture.


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## Venusian Broon (Feb 13, 2013)

Galacticdefender said:


> Also Elon has stated that he started Spacex with the goal in mind of making Humanity a multi-planet species, *so he definitely doesn't only care about money.* .


 
Hence it will fail, 'cause he will much more likely bankrupt himself then.  

But seriously there are vast differences between a nice n' cheap rocket solution to get some payload into orbit and making a safe enviroment for humans in a place that is extremely hostile to live in - and live there constantly. 

I think it'll be like nuclear fusion. Fifty years ago they said it would take fifty years to crack the problem and we'd have clean limitless nuclear energy for the whole world. Last year or so, those working on nuclear fusion stated that it will only take 40-50 years before their prototype will be commerical. I woudn't be surprise if this rolling goalpost keeps trundling into the forseeable future as we try and catch it.

As for space exploration, we will of course continue to make advancements and improvements - so there is an outside chance that some amazing breakthough makes it all feasible - but this is not a magic bullet sort of situation, there are a huge number of different problems to overcome. So the pragmatist in me expects not much in the way of human colonisation of other worlds for a very long time.

Don't get me wrong, I'd like humanity to spread to other planets. I mean we're going to run out of space for car parks, shopping malls, office blocks and little chefs on earth at some point - we need more land and materials to continue growing. 




> There will be a moon base soon enough I believe. I also would not be surprised if the first man on Mars is put there by a commercial venture.


 
Care to put an expected date on when this will happen?


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## iansales (Feb 13, 2013)

They have a saying in the space industry: if you want to make a small fortune in space, start with a large fortune. The investment timeframes are simply larger than any commercial organisation can afford. Even the small steps require hideous amounts of investment. This is hardly surprising - you're throwing away 90% of your investment with every launch. Until someone comes up with an effectively re-usable launch system - the X-37B is currently the closest, though the Skylon promises much - then space is going to be the final frontier only for the space agencies of rich nations.


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## Galacticdefender (Feb 13, 2013)

The whole reusable rocket thing that Spacex is working on just might be that breakthrough everyone is looking for. Look up "grasshopper" if you haven't seen what I am talking about. No company would invest that much in such a large prototype if they weren't planning on implementing the technology. There will be another prototype built in the relatively near future as well. Musk has even said that this tech could be implemented in rockets as large as the Falcon Heavy. 

There has never really been anything quite like the situation with the space industry right now, so it is difficult to make predictions. It takes very forward thinking people to start entirely new industries, and it is a very good thing that so many of the people in leadership positions in the private space industry have such a passion for what they do. Commercial space is our real way to space. In history, science and technology have paled in the face of motivators like money. Space travel is simply a very long term investment, but if these companies keep at it, the rewards will be like nothing we have ever seen before. Look at the computer industry. Nobody saw that coming. People laughed when it was said that we will all have "supercomputers" in our households, but now computer tech is completely integrated into our lifestyles. Who is to say that the private space industry won't have a similar result? (not to say that we will all have spaceships of course, but space tech might experience a sort of renaissance is what I am getting at)

For the record I'm studing aerospace enginnering, so I have plans to work within this industry. I can't wait 

Also, here is a great Arthur C. Clarke quote: 

"The choice, as Wells put it, is the Universe, or nothing... The challenge of the great spaces between the worlds is a stupendous one; but if we fail to meet it, the story of our race will be drawing to a close. Humanity will have turned it's back upon the still untrodden heights and will be descending again the long slope that stretches, across a thousand million years of time, down to the shores of the primeval sea."

If we fail to move beyond earth, it will be as if humanity never existed in the first place.


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## Venusian Broon (Feb 14, 2013)

Galacticdefender said:


> For the record I'm studing aerospace enginnering, so I have plans to work within this industry. I can't wait


 
Sounds brilliant, Always go with your passions if you can - makes getting up on a working day a pleasure. Generally has worked for me! Wish you all the best for the future. And I'm sure your going to brush aside everything I write below (I hope so anyway - you'll get your own realism through your own experiences, not mine!) 



Galacticdefender said:


> The whole reusable rocket thing that Spacex is working on just might be that breakthrough everyone is looking for. Look up "grasshopper"...


 
One swallow does make a summer. It's only one piece of the puzzle - if self-sufficient and sustaining colonies on other worlds is your goal (and it's easy to see that reusable rockets/transport into near earth orbit is the best economic case of all the aspects of the space industry and by far the easiest of all the problems to solve.)




Galacticdefender said:


> There has never really been anything quite like the situation with the space industry right now, so it is difficult to make predictions.


 
Bah!! Chicken 

You're the expert in this field not me - nail your flag to the mast and grow a pair ! When will there be a proper self-sutainable colony on another planet where humans will live all their lives? Or to take Musk's announcement - when will there be 10,000 'colonists' on Mars?



Galacticdefender said:


> It takes very forward thinking people to start entirely new industries, and it is a very good thing that so many of the people in leadership positions in the private space industry have such a passion for what they do.


 
One person's 'forward thinking', 'passionate leaders' are others fruitloops obsessed with white elephants and madcap schemes. Unfortunately all we can really do is wait and see. My decades of experience has taught me however that scientists and engineers tend to be the worst choice for running companies - for all their intelligence and passion, the world of finance, markets and business is an alien landscape for them.

Now I know what you're going to say - that they are all experts in business. They come from dotcom fortunes etc... But my work has in the past involved looking at business leaders (of all sorts) and you'd be surprised at how much luck comes into their success. The trick is, once you've had your piece of good luck i.e. been in the right place at the right time and start making money, how to manage it and sustain it. The surprising thing is how many business CEO really believe it was all down to them. Well they say you have to a pyschopath to succeed...

Hence I always take the charismatic business leader with a good bag of salt! (And keep a hammer handy by the door for defence, just in case...)



Galacticdefender said:


> Commercial space is our real way to space. In history, science and technology have paled in the face of motivators like money. Space travel is simply a very long term investment, but if these companies keep at it, the rewards will be like nothing we have ever seen before.


 
This I agree with (see, I'm not just an old pessimistic curmudgeon). And indeed there is a possibility that something game changing will come out of this - so for that reason we have to be there in some form or another. 




Galacticdefender said:


> Look at the computer industry. Nobody saw that coming. People laughed when it was said that we will all have "supercomputers" in our households,


 
?? I disagree, for a long time till the late 70s the vast majority of people wouldn't have known what a computer actually did. So it would have generated a dispassionate shrug rather than a laugh. I think there was more expectation that robotics would be the future - which of course has proven to be much harder than we could ever of thought. 



Galacticdefender said:


> If we fail to move beyond earth, it will be as if humanity never existed in the first place.


 
Sorry to drag a sentiment like this down, but it doesn't matter to me if we move beyond earth or not. The universe just doesn't care and will continue to spawn complexity and wonders without the need for us. Humanity will of course cease to exist at some point in the future - that is a certainty - whether we are wiped out by extinction or have evolved into a new species. Nothing lasts for ever. 


*But* we've made our mark on the universe just by being. Everything on top of that is gravy.


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## Galacticdefender (Feb 14, 2013)

Really, I see no problem to what you are saying. Sure, of course there is a chance that nobody will be able to pull any of this private space business off the ground, but SpaceX is well on it's way, and can build things much faster than NASA. The next Dragon flight is next month, by the way. If we are all pessimistic, there is a greater chance that the space industry will fail. So why not greet it with all the enthusiasm that it deserves? But the private space industry right now is unlike it was in the past, so it is indeed difficult to predict what will happen, but I am quite optimistic about the future. 

The last bit is where I disagree. We have indeed made a mark upon the universe by just being. But if we stay here, on one planet, who will that matter to if something happens to Earth? If we were all wiped out, it would be as if we never existed in the first place. There would be no more wonder and there would be no more science. All we would have to show for our existance is one planet full of dead fools and a few shiny bits of technology on the moon and Mars. Humanity started as a bunch of hunter gatherers, then started to build city-states and countries. We went all the way up the ladder of civilization to where we are now. What is the logical next step if it is not living in space? Would we stay here, in some sort of technological and cultural limbo for the rest of our existance? Space exploration is not simply a thing that benefits us all. It is a necessity if we want to progress as a civilization and as a species. Luckily, I feel we have a chance. Once space becomes profitable, it will only be a matter of time. And what would you rather us be? Extinct, or evolved into a new species? Staying on Earth leaves only one of the two options. 


...Yup I got a bit passionate there....

What do you think of the two asteroid mining companies? I think the first one has a legitimate chance, but the second one seems to be somewhat of a pipedream.


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## Harpo (Feb 15, 2013)

Whatever happens with either - the basic fact that there are more than one means they'll be trying to better each other, and so will the next people who try it.  

Competition = trying harder = eventual success for somebody someday.


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## Venusian Broon (Feb 15, 2013)

*!*



Galacticdefender said:


> If we were all wiped out, it would be as if we never existed in the first place. There would be no more wonder and there would be no more science.


 
Well, if you look at long enough time scales* there will always be a point when 'it will be as if we never existed in the first place.' So I'm not really impressed with this argument 



Galacticdefender said:


> What is the logical next step if it is not living in space?


 
As this is a SF site, I'm going to suggest trans-universal portals, so that we can pop through and visit infinite worlds  

I'll work on the theory, can't be that difficult - give me a good couple hundred years. 




Galacticdefender said:


> And what would you rather us be? Extinct, or evolved into a new species? Staying on Earth leaves only one of the two options.


 
Disagree with you there, the chances are actually quite good that humanity will survive a good 800,000 years or however ever long it takes before we evolve into something else. And it doesn't rely on us having to go to other worlds. You might not like the idea, but it seems the most probable future right now. 

We seem to be fixated on death as a species and this usually gets translated into Judgement days and Extinction events (unless you are Hindu and have a very much more sensible cyclical approach to the universe, which I feel much more comfortable with). Sure some bad things are going to come our way, but we are the most adaptable large animal on the whole planet and will find a way to survive. 



Galacticdefender said:


> Would we stay here, in some sort of technological and cultural limbo for the rest of our existance?


 
Well, for someone who won't be drawn on predicting some near future stuff - how do you know we'll be in limbo further out?  Who knows what'll happen. 

Look, I'm being a bit tongue-in-cheek, 'cause I'd like to think that it might be possible to get to another star and find and live in another earth-like planet, or to become a vacuum tolerant species and flit amongst interstellar space like cosmic bugs, or...you catch my drift. We're on the same side! 




Galacticdefender said:


> What do you think of the two asteroid mining companies? I think the first one has a legitimate chance, but the second one seems to be somewhat of a pipedream.


 
I'm following these with interest, although I'd still think that for providing materials for Earth, these will never really be that economical. But if you are wanting to push out into the solar system then asteriods with the right materials could make excellent staging posts for refueling, and providing materials for building what you need in situ.


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* And very short. I'm probably not going to exist after my death so effectively it'll be as if nothing ever existed at that point. Although who knows...


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## Galacticdefender (Feb 16, 2013)

Aye, I get that you think space exploration is important, but a little optimism is good for everyone lol. And I do have quite a bit of (quite justified) faith in SpaceX. When rich people have money and want to do something, they generally give it their very best shot. 

And yes, I think humanity would survive if some disaster struck us, but sitting in the bottom of a basement with a gas mask and a mosin nagant seems like not much of a life at all when compared to what we can accomplish. 

The Asteroid mining companies would be absolutely game changing if they were successful. The first one I think will eventually be, judging by the backers, but the second one I'm not so sure, though they have a a good idea: Make things in space with the materials, and eliminate re-entry.


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