# Armageddon.  Whaddayathunk?



## skeptical (Aug 4, 2009)

I notice the Carrington thread is getting involved in catastrophism.   That reminds me of the various theories of future global disasters. 

What do you guys think is the most likely cause of major disaster to the human species?   Something that at least causes massive depopulation, if not extinction?   What should we be doing about it?


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## PTeppic (Aug 4, 2009)

Most events that would cause a "massive" depopulation are so powerful or virulent that by their nature they're unstoppable.


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## Vladd67 (Aug 4, 2009)

Most likely cause of a major disaster to the human species? Easy, the human species.


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## Drachir (Aug 4, 2009)

Vladd67 said:


> Most likely cause of a major disaster to the human species? Easy, the human species.




Ditto, Vladd.


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## Nik (Aug 4, 2009)

Bit like a Chinese TakeAway menu: What a choice !!

Super-volcanos seem to be snoring, possible flood-basalt sources seem restricted to Siberia etc.

A really, really nasty plague would hurt. Would not surprise me if the 'usual suspects' engaged in a mild nuclear exchange to excise hot-spots / prevent millions of potential carriers takkin' a walk.

Um, if there's a 'galactic' event like a too-near GRB or supernova,  we're cooked. A mega-flare would have similar effects, far beyond any 'Carrington Event'.

There's a steady risk of an ELE space-rock. The population census is incomplete, there are 'blind vectors', and one could easily sneak up on us. Fortunately, Jupiter continues to 'eat' them. There's a possibility that Venus has taken a recent hit, too...

Lest you think I exaggerate the hazard, consider the long list of 'small' sun-grazer / sun-eaten comets that SOHO has logged. No-one else saw them...


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## ktabic (Aug 4, 2009)

An always good site for apocalypses (apocalypsi?)is Exit Mundi.


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## mygoditsraining (Aug 4, 2009)

Considering we live in a socio-economic climate that requires constant growth or else the wheels fall off of it (see the previous year's worth of news for an example), I was interested by the coverage given to our dwindling oil stocks in the Independent...and all the comments.

Pretty much every comment fell under one of five basic categories:

1) It's a socialist conspiracy
2) It's a capitalist conspiracy
3) The world is warming and this is natural
4) The world is cooling and this is natural
5) - and my personal favourite - what God has made man cannot destroy, ergo we have infinite resources forever.  Amen.

Irregardless of the seemingly universal desire to stick our fingers in our ears and wish the bad things away, assessing the risk surely points to the implementation of some sort of threat minimisation before actual problems (and by this I mean the knock on effect of a _serious_ oil shortage) occur.  It's all well and good to point out that these things cost money but the eventual effect of them with zero protection in place against that eventuality is too great to risk.  

As an example, cruise liners would be cheaper, lighter, have more space and use less fuel without lifeboats.  The risk of a liner sinking is very very low, and yet we willingly take the precaution of fitting them with safety measures to offset the chance of it occurring.


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## Arwena (Aug 4, 2009)

Probably human beings are the greatest threat for an Armageddon, but the problem is we usually botch things up, even when it comes to destroying ourselves.   In that case, the most probable future event would be a collision with a sufficiently siaeable space rock.


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## skeptical (Aug 4, 2009)

Just to throw a really nasty idea in.

A few years ago, some researchers working with the mousepox virus, which makes mice sick but rarely kills them, inserted a gene that boosted its impact.  The new GM mousepox virus now is highly infectious, and kills mice with 100% certainty in quite a short time.

But the USA and Russia have stocks of human smallpox, and both are known to carry out germ warfare research, and both use GM techniques .....


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## Ursa major (Aug 4, 2009)

That really would be a case of "a pox on all your houses..."


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## Granfalloon (Aug 6, 2009)

To be perfectly Honest, it dosen't matter what I _think_. If it happens, it happens one way or another. It does, however, matter what _we_ do. If enough of us did more of the right things, there's a possibility we'd get by somehow. I have been recycling all of my adult life, I try to conserve enegry, and not waste fuel. I generate as much interest as possible in alternative energy and fuels. So that way, when it does happen, I can say "Well, don't look at me."


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## skeptical (Aug 6, 2009)

I notice that no-one has mentioned the Large Hadron Collider, being repaired by CERN.    While the odds are against it producing a mini-black hole able to swallow the Earth, or a strangelet, or something even weirder and more destructive, there is still a small but finite chance that some such may occur.  

The CERN group calculated the odds at one in 2 million against.   However, the result you get in such estimates depends on the assumptions you build into your models, and no-one could argue that CERN staff are unbiased!   They just want to play with their very expensive giant toy.

So guys, you may have just months to live before a human created black hole or other weird object swallows us all.


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## Drachir (Aug 6, 2009)

skeptical said:


> So guys, you may have just months to live before a human created black hole or other weird object swallows us all.



Or we could just watch FOX news and see our thoughts sucked into an endless void.


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## mosaix (Aug 6, 2009)

This caught my attention recently:

Backyard astronomer discovers black spot on Jupiter - Times Online

It looks like another collision:

_Scientists at Nasa confirmed that his observations were of an impact rather  than a storm. It is thought to have been caused by a small comet or cometary  fragment, about 1km in diameter, which would have struck the planet at a  speed of about 60km per second (about 135,000mph). _

This is the second time in 15 years that a comet has struck Jupiter. The gas giants perform an important role in 'sweeping up' stuff like this instead of it being a danger to us.

But the worrying this is that we never saw this one coming, and even if we had, could we have done anything about it if it was Earth bound?


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## ktabic (Aug 6, 2009)

mosaix said:


> This caught my attention recently:
> 
> Backyard astronomer discovers black spot on Jupiter - Times Online
> 
> ...



Which is mentioned elsewhere on chrons here and here.

While Jupiter often gets praised for it's role in solar system debris clearence, it is also responsbile for hurling massive great big rocks straight through the inner system.

It's not particularly worrying that we missed this comet (that was probably an asteroid, but never mind, eh ) since what we are looking for are NEOs, thats Near-Earth Objects, and Jupiter isn't near us.
(I'm doing a Uni module on the Solar System atm, so the course forum has been filling up with details about this one, since asteroid inpacts are a great way of educating )
Impact speed of 60-100 km/sec, size of a few hundred metres, explosive energy release of a few tens of thousands of megatons.


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## mosaix (Aug 6, 2009)

ktabic said:


> It's not particularly worrying that we missed this comet (that was probably an asteroid, but never mind, eh ) since what we are looking for are NEOs, thats Near-Earth Objects, and Jupiter isn't near us.



Perhaps I'm wrong, but if we didn't detect the object then we don't know it's trajectory, so isn't there a chance it could have been bound for the inner realms of the solar system and it could have _become_ an NEO but for Jupiter and her gravity field getting in its way?


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## ktabic (Aug 6, 2009)

mosaix said:


> Perhaps I'm wrong, but if we didn't detect the object then we don't know it's trajectory, so isn't there a chance it could have been bound for the inner realms of the solar system and it could have _become_ an NEO but for Jupiter and her gravity field getting in its way?



Yes, it could have come in to the inner solar system, but then it's moving into the area we are watching, so the further in it gets, the higher the chance of being spotted. Also, there are two classes of objects close to us. NEOs (sometimes NEA, Near-Earth Asteroid) are just interesting, due to their proximity, but it only means they are within 1.3 AU of the Sun. The other class are PHA, Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. Those are the NEOs with orbits that change from less than 1AU to more than 1AU, meaning they can be in our path. Just becuase it's a NEO doesn't mean it is a risk. Anyway, point is, in order to become a threat, it would have to come closer. And as it comes closer, it would move into the more activily searched areas.


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## Ursa major (Aug 6, 2009)

ktabic said:


> Anyway, point is, in order to become a threat, it would have to come closer. And as it comes closer, it would move into the more activily searched areas.


 
...although what we might do about one heading straight for us is another matter.


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## Nik (Aug 7, 2009)

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Has some pretty Perseid piccies, plus current PHA count and the month's predicted fly-bys.


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## mosaix (Aug 7, 2009)

Ursa major said:


> ...although what we might do about one heading straight for us is another matter.


 
Yep, that was my point. Because this one is (was) entirely new, if it was on a collision course then it's just too late to worry about it once it's spotted.


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