# If We Were Faced With An Event like the Permian Extinction , Could We Survive?



## BAYLOR (Aug 5, 2018)

This happened over  250 million years ago and caused about 90 percent of all life on  earth to die.  We've had  other extinct events  but nothing on quite of the scale of that  one .  It conceivable  that such nn event like this could happen again.  So the question is,  could we survive such a climatic calamity of such dimensions  ? And if so for how long?  What kind of survival would be possible ? What quality of existence ?

Thoughts?


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## dask (Aug 6, 2018)

What was the cause of the extinction? Knowing in advance the cause might help the recovery if not the avoidance.


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## tinkerdan (Aug 6, 2018)

You know if this did happen; if we did survive; if 90% of life became extinct: why we'd have a much clearer field in our attempts to destroy the earths ecosystem and maybe some insight into how to do it, what with that extinction event and all that we'd have time to study and assimilate.

Or, who knows maybe we'd learn something to help us bring things back from the brink of extinction.


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## Vertigo (Aug 6, 2018)

Bearing in mind that these extinction events don't happen overnight it may just be that we are already in the middle of another right now only this time we are the cause... By the time we're done we might be lucky if the figure is only 90%!


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## Stephen Palmer (Aug 6, 2018)

The other issue is that, for all its complexity and severity, the LPE lasted quite a while.
The human-created Sixth Extinction is happening much, much faster.
It's not looking good.


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## BAYLOR (Aug 6, 2018)

Stephen Palmer said:


> The other issue is that, for all its complexity and severity, the LPE lasted quite a while.
> The human-created Sixth Extinction is happening much, much faster.
> It's not looking good.



Is is even a possibility that we could get the globes  7  Billion inhabitants , work together  and make the necessary lifestyle sacrifices to help right the the good ship Earth before it hits the extinction iceberg ?  I think everybody or at the very least, most people need to act.


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## BAYLOR (Aug 6, 2018)

dask said:


> What was the cause of the extinction? Knowing in advance the cause might help the recovery if not the avoidance.



Volcanoe related Greenhouse gasses might have played a role.  If the volcanoes on Planet Earth were to undergo a log period of super eruption.  Consider the Ring of fire or the volcanic caldera under yellow stone other places in the world .  How do we combat that ?


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## dask (Aug 6, 2018)

Not sure we can. But I was talking recovery and avoidance, not hand to hand.


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## Stephen Palmer (Aug 7, 2018)

I think I've mentioned the outstanding_ When Life Nearly Died_ by Michael Benton, but it bears repeating.


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## Stephen Palmer (Aug 7, 2018)

BAYLOR said:


> Is is even a possibility that we could get the globes  7  Billion inhabitants , work together  and make the necessary lifestyle sacrifices to help right the the good ship Earth before it hits the extinction iceberg ?  I think everybody or at the very least, most people need to act.



Very true, but unlikely.
James Lovelock pointed out that, in his estimate, half a billion people could live on Earth sustainably if they followed an American lifestyle, whereas eighteen billion could if they followed a Rwandan lifestyle. I forget which book that was in, but it does make the point...


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## BAYLOR (Aug 7, 2018)

Vertigo said:


> Bearing in mind that these extinction events don't happen overnight it may just be that we are already in the middle of another right now only this time we are the cause... By the time we're done we might be lucky if the figure is only 90%!



Imagine being on planet Earth while  the Permian extinction was going one.  It must have been like Dantes inferno.


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## BAYLOR (Aug 7, 2018)

Stephen Palmer said:


> I think I've mentioned the outstanding_ When Life Nearly Died_ by Michael Benton, but it bears repeating.



I can't help but be a little  sad for all the life  that perished as a result of that event  all those species that  died  and didn't get the chance to evolve further. What might they have become  If that event hadn't happened .  We wouldn't  be here of course. Ive  often wondered  if something with human level intelligence  might have evolved from one of those species . Imagine a world in which intelligent life had  evolved  millions of years earlier.  It's very possible that that might have happened.


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## Stephen Palmer (Aug 8, 2018)

It is possible!
I'd recommend this book though to see what conditions are necessary...


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## BAYLOR (Aug 19, 2018)

I remember a scientist saying that what need to do is become a planet species.  Unfortunately , that doesn't help us now.


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## Robert Zwilling (Aug 23, 2018)

90 percent disaster at what rate? If it happened overnight with mass casualties and isolated pockets of survivors there would be plenty of left over stuff that could be used to get over the immediate hump of not being able to buy anything. You would just take it. Canned food and replaceable vehicles.

There is a real percentage of people living everyday without all the benefits of modernized living. Some of them are probably close enough to the edge to be considered living off the grid. These people are already in remote areas, not in the middle of populated areas. Assuming that the change was locally activated and not from outer space, effecting major population areas, I would figure these people might have a big head start, as they wouldn't necessarily be starting over from scratch.

There was a great deal of human activity during the ice age, but most people would probably give that style of living a negative grade for quality of life. Humans lived without modern devices and a quality of life we would consider to be non existent for a million years. 

If it was a gradual but determined downward spiral for life forms that support us, and most plant based food sources died out we could make food from oil. Electricity would be provided by anything that didn't use oil. It would probably look like medieval times. Quality of life would probably be based on what you could hold onto. The wealth disparity would be a million to one.


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## BAYLOR (Sep 23, 2019)

Robert Zwilling said:


> 90 percent disaster at what rate? If it happened overnight with mass casualties and isolated pockets of survivors there would be plenty of left over stuff that could be used to get over the immediate hump of not being able to buy anything. You would just take it. Canned food and replaceable vehicles.
> 
> There is a real percentage of people living everyday without all the benefits of modernized living. Some of them are probably close enough to the edge to be considered living off the grid. These people are already in remote areas, not in the middle of populated areas. Assuming that the change was locally activated and not from outer space, effecting major population areas, I would figure these people might have a big head start, as they wouldn't necessarily be starting over from scratch.
> 
> ...



Even with all our technology and science , it's not likely that we could served long term on earth if the environment  around us turned hostile.


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## Robert Zwilling (Sep 23, 2019)

BAYLOR said:


> Even with all our technology and science , it's not likely that we could served long term on earth if the environment around us turned hostile.


That is a very interesting statement because the weather has done just that, it is now an adversary and not a beneficial genie helping us grow the food we need to survive. The size and frequency of the storms will continue to grow everyday for a very long time. There are more articles appearing that are implying we are now on the other side of the curve, and that the enormous amount of time we are using as a cushion to delay decision making is an illusion.


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## Danny McG (Sep 23, 2019)

Hippies, it's all their fault, I'm telling ya!


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## BAYLOR (Sep 23, 2019)

Robert Zwilling said:


> That is a very interesting statement because the weather has done just that, it is now an adversary and not a beneficial genie helping us grow the food we need to survive. The size and frequency of the storms will continue to grow everyday for a very long time. There are more articles appearing that are implying we are now on the other side of the curve, and that the enormous amount of time we are using as a cushion to delay decision making is an illusion.



It's not looking good for us,  is it?


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## Elckerlyc (Sep 23, 2019)

If you look at the effects already noticeable on weather, melting of the icesheets on Greenland, Antartica, the North-pole, the permafrost etc while the first realistic measure has yet to be implemented and any measure that are talked about only go as far as limiting the global temperature-rise to 1.5 max 2% by 2050.... No, it's not looking good. There is no sense of urgency. Not with the politicians or the public in common. There is no sense of personal responsibility or the will to acknowledge the connection between our lifestyles and the impact on the environment. Hence the general denial of the problem.


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## Robert Zwilling (Sep 23, 2019)

It does no good to blame anyone at this point. It gives us someone to sue but that's about it. We all benefited from the situation and still do. We do need to change at some point. The brakes needed to be slammed on 50 years ago. Stuff was done 50 years ago, but it didn't address the overall problem, and after that nothing happened, until now, when anyone can look out their window and experience the situation. While people might think having a huge battery attached to the side of the house is way too green a thing to do, it does supply power when the lights go out, which is a very useful feature. I don't think we should have to pay for them. They would supply security for the country. The refrig and freezer don't go long without power. 

The big thing now is that we need to be able to respond when something big happens. That's a job the military should do. They supposedly can fly into action in a moments notice. Or can they? 70 years ago when stuff happened, the sky would be filled with helicopters. But that cost money. Another reason why allowing things to endlessly increase in value is not such a good idea. The cost of fixing simple things like pot holes keeps pace and eventually becomes a ridiculous sum of money to fix a simple hole in the road. Imagine the cost when we need to rebuild our houses and roads. Insurance companies are going to cut back on coverage because they will get tired of shelling out their profits for problems that are no longer random but instead seem to be following a schedule.


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## Mirannan (Sep 24, 2019)

Survivability of such an event depends on the details. AFAIK the Permian event was relatively gradual and caused by a mass of volcanic eruptions, whereas the rather better-known Cretaceous event happened in a few days with the start of the event happening in literally minutes.

Another Chixculub (sp?) type impact is definitely possible in a human lifetime and inevitable given a few tens of millions of years, and it would be very difficult to survive. Other extinction-level events include global thermonuclear war and the resulting nuclear winter, a grey goo event (both difficult to impossible to survive) and some wilder possibilities such as a GRB that points its beam towards us, alien invasion of various types including Berserkers, and false vacuum collapse. And of course the one that would probably only take us, a global pandemic.

Survivability of these events is wildly variable for many reasons. So - which ELE scenario do you mean?


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## Finch (Sep 24, 2019)

All things come to an end . For humans it is an absolute truth .


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## CupofJoe (Sep 24, 2019)

Moving to New Zealand will probably help. It's geographical isolation helps limit some global effects.
And well... It is New Zealand. So if you are going to die, at least your view will be pretty.


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## Brian G Turner (Sep 24, 2019)

CupofJoe said:


> Moving to New Zealand will probably help. It's geographical isolation helps limit some global effects.
> And well... It is New Zealand. So if you are going to die, at least your view will be pretty.



Considered that. But New Zealand is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire - high risk of earthquakes, plus volcanic eruptions and even tsunamis. 

No, have decided to take my chances in the Highlands of Scotland - though would probably need land enough for self-sufficient farming.


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## Parson (Sep 24, 2019)

Would we want to survive? For an old man like me, the answer is not all that clear.


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## BAYLOR (Sep 25, 2019)

Finch said:


> All things come to an end . For humans it is an absolute truth .



I think it more desirable  to try to  postpone that ending  for as along as possible.


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