# Who will lead the exploration of space?



## Viktor Kuprin (Jun 29, 2007)

Who will lead the exploration of space? Americans? Russians? The Chinese? 

In my recent introduction here at chron, I mentioned that I write SF stories in a future history where the Russians lead the colonization of the solar system and, later, the stars. chrispenycate wrote that he thinks it will be the Chinese who blaze the way for exploration and permanent settlements. As for the US, we're all wondering what will become of NASA's plans for a space shuttle replacement.


Who would you bet on? And why?


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## Viktor Kuprin (Jun 29, 2007)

In my *KOSMOSFLOT *fiction, I predict that the Russians will develop the solar system and beyond. Why?

1. Capital. Corruption, oligarch-capitalism, and cleptocracy notwithstanding, the Russian government and its elite are awash in petroleum dollars. They have enough money to invest in space technology (after they've finished buying up everything in London!).

2. Their long experience in space flight operations, their big rocket boosters, etc.

3. Russia's need to regain its national prestige.

4. And, sadly, I'm just not very optimistic about the USA and NASA being in the running. Americans would rather pay Paris Hilton a million bucks to show up drunk at a party rather than invest in the future.


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## Pyan (Jun 29, 2007)

Have to agree with you, Victor.
 At least Russia still seems to have the will to continue with space travel, whereas the USA programme is mired in accusations of corruption, and its budgeting seems to be a target for every politician who wants to raise his profile with the 'peeple'.

Also, the Russians cancelled their version of the blind alley that is the Shuttle, so they have been able to concentrate on the big boosters. 

Mind you. I'm not ruling out the Chinese, either. They're catching up _*fast*_.


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## chrispenycate (Jun 29, 2007)

May I add that I would really love to admit that I was wrong? Not for any masochistic reasons, but because that would mean that the next phase of space exploration wouls have occured in my lifetime (something that at present seems unlikely.
I would love to see an american base on the moon, or a russian minimum energy orbit manned Mars craft, and there are at least a dozen different nationalities/groups who could, if they decided to invest the time and money (lots of both) develope a reusable, LEO spaceplane. I'm not even ready to write off the space elevator, though my private calculations give the lead time on that (even if they started, with adequate finance, tomorrow) exceeds my life expectancy.
Still, China has the "something to prove", the inventiveness, the finance (or will have) and the potential for taking risks that will probably what the USA lacks (not on a personal level, mind). India has the drive, but would have to put too much of its GNP into infrastructure. The islamic block –oops, they weren't an option– would have to buy in all the expertise, and before petrolium gave out. The EU? the only organisation more fragmented and bureaucratic at the same time is the UN; with either of them it would be "my country has to have its share", huge veruns, and nobody's fault when it failed to take off.
Multi-national corporations could do it, but the profit is too far down the line for their shareholders. Despite everything, if they didn't see it as a government program, an opportunity to soak the taxpayers for everything they could, they'd probably be the most efficient.


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## Viktor Kuprin (Jun 29, 2007)

chrispenycate said:


> I'm not even ready to write off the space elevator, though my private calculations give the lead time on that (even if they started, with adequate finance, tomorrow) exceeds my life expectancy.


 


Kim Stanley Robinson's _Mars_ series included a chilling account of a sabotaged space elevator falling onto the Martian surface with horrific results for the colonists living there. I'm sure "Not in my backyard" would quick become "Not on my planet" if a big lift were proposed on Earth.


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## Tillane (Jun 29, 2007)

I agree - Russia all the way, because I think they're prepared to take the risks other countries won't.  Aside from all other concerns, space exploration is still hazardous, regardless of the improvements made in recent years and I get the impression that the Americans simply won't take the risk because of how it will play out in the media.  Either Russia will take over, or China will.  I'll bet Russia.


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## Somni (Jun 29, 2007)

Hmm, perhaps whilst the 'big' nations are arguing about who and how a 'smaller' nation will just get on and do it?  As to who I don't know or really mind, but could they do it quickly please?


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## tangaloomababe (Jun 29, 2007)

Can't decide between Russian's and Chinese.  
Russia has a long history of Space exploration but they have been hampered financially for many years, yet they have endured.
For China it is still early days, they are exploding into the modern world but it remains to be seen if Space Exploration will be one of their chief goals.
I dont know if we can totally eliminate the Americans yet, although they do seem to have gone away from that particular path....


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## The Ace (Jun 29, 2007)

Everybody's so busy disappearing up their own backsides nothing will actually get done and our dreams of space exploration will remain just that, dreams.  I just hope _somebody _proves me wrong.


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## scalem X (Jun 29, 2007)

I believe it will be a pan-asian exploration. Korea-Japan-China. So I voted Japan. It's speculation though.


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## HardScienceFan (Jun 30, 2007)

the Chinese ,I go with Chris

worldpower in the making


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## Allegra (Jun 30, 2007)

The Ace said:


> Everybody's so busy disappearing up their own backsides nothing will actually get done and our dreams of space exploration will remain just that, dreams. I just hope _somebody _proves me wrong.


 
That's my guess too so I think in the next 20 years the US will still be ahead.


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## Talysia (Jun 30, 2007)

I can't help but think that China will soon be a major power in space exploration.


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## mosaix (Jun 30, 2007)

China and not just in space. They will be _the_ world super-power in the next 100 years. 

Two reasons: will power (USA and Russia have lost it) and vast amounts of cheap labour.


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## dustinzgirl (Jun 30, 2007)

I'm betting on Russia. There has been a return to nationalism in Russia, while the USA and China have faced a reduction in nationalism. The old 'space wars' of the 60's to 80's are gone, but there is still the importance of nationalism in space exploration. However, it is also important to note that Nasa currently has lunar and planetary posts in the works, more so than most other nations. The moon will likely maintain USA outposts to launch extra solar explorations, but I still think that once the USA has done so, other nations will surpass what NASA does, simply because they are more likely to have a nation of people behind them. In the USA, people don't care---I mean really CARE about space anymore. 

Also, russia and china place extreme importance on scientific education while America places an extreme importance on business education.


PS: I doubt the UN and EU could find space if they were standing in URanus.


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## Pyan (Jun 30, 2007)

dustinzgirl said:


> PS: I doubt the UN and EU could find space if they were standing in URanus.


* Cheek!*


> *Ariane* is a series of a European civilian expendable launch vehicles for space launch use....
> ....169 Ariane flights have boosted 290 satellites, successfully placing 271 of them on orbit (223 main passengers and 48 auxiliary passengers) for a total mass of 575 000 kg successfully delivered on orbit. This success rate also makes Arianespace the foremost commercial launcher; in some years, more than *two thirds *of all commercial satellites have been launched with the company's vehicles.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_(rocket)


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## Quokka (Jul 7, 2007)

Ok here's my 2 cent predictions. I think that commercial oragnisations will begin to be a real driving force long term, although its probably another century or more before government agencies get superceeded completely.

I think space tourism will start to take off p...sorry) sure they'll treat it like an amusement ride and then a resort/hotel further on but over the decades it will keep developing the technologies and bringing the costs down. 

America will be the first to land a person on Mars, they just couldn't allow anyone else to be first. Although I also think they'll leave it as long as possible and again there may be a little more commercial involvement than the moon landing. 

Don't get me wrong I think there'll be government programs for a long time yet, some of the science driving projects aren't going to be picked up without any profit incentive but I'm guessing they'll be a bit of a reversal at some point, in that the governnment projects will start using and adapting technologies developed by commercial interests. 

and I'm optimistic enough to think I'll live to see those people walking on Mars and just maybe, maybe get to experience weightlessness for myself.


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## Stargazer (Jul 7, 2007)

I think all the big ones will have important roles in the exploration and colonisation of the Solar system.

I believe that NASA will get more funding and support if Russia or China boosts their space programmes. If Russia would like to restore the prestige of the good old space race days, with the right people in power, it could happen. They have the technology and ability to develop it, they have the industry and experience. China is moving along, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Chinese manned mission to the Moon in a not too distant future. 

NASA will be there before anyone else, unless Russia and ESA decides to go ahead in developing the CSTS space system, a similar system to NASA's Orion, and quickly develop a Lunar lander. But even if CSTS is implemented, I think NASA will still be first once again.

ESA could lead missions to the Moon and Mars, and even go more or less alone, but then the funding would have to increase. I find it more likely that ESA's manned missions will be in cooperation with other countries, especially Russia and Japan.

Then there are the commercial space projects. It will take a while before we see Bigelow or Virgin Galactic or some other company land on the Moon. But it will happen of course.


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## Vladd67 (Sep 15, 2007)

Given the recent launch by the Japanese, and the forthcoming launches by China and India, not to mention the offer of joint missions from Russia I really hope the USA gets its act together and dusts off its Saturn V plans. Of course we used to have a rocket programme of our own but that was scrapped in 1971.


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## Pyan (Oct 5, 2007)

*Update:*

BBC NEWS | World | Asia-Pacific | Japanese probe enters lunar orbit


*                     Japanese probe enters lunar orbit* 








                 The orbit was launched by a Japanese H-2A rocket last month

*Japan's lunar explorer has successfully entered orbit around the Moon, space agency officials have said.
*The Kaguya orbiter was launched in August from Japan's space base on the southern island of Tanegashima.  
It will deploy two smaller satellites and, over a year, gather data on the Moon's origin and evolution.  
Japanese scientists say it is the most complex lunar mission since Nasa's Apollo programme in the 1960s and 70s, when astronauts walked on the Moon.


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## Pyan (Oct 15, 2007)

*Update II *- if anyone actually reads this thread.....

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Europe set for major space campaign

*  Europe set for major space campaign* 

                                                                                                                        By Irene Klotz                                                                            
                                             Cape Canaveral, Florida                                                   












                 The Italian connecting node Harmony will fly next week

*Europe is on the cusp of a renaissance in space, with its first permanently tended orbital laboratory, a cargo transporter and other gear about to make their debuts.* 
After more than a decade of preparation, 45 tonnes of European hardware is heading into space over the next four months, including the crown jewel of European space efforts, the Columbus laboratory, which is to become part of the International Space Station (ISS).


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