# Windows 10: free upgrades, and holographic working?



## Brian G Turner (Jan 21, 2015)

Some good coverage from the BBC about the coming Windows 10 release:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30924022

Interesting to see that Windows 10 will allow free upgrades for a year. While that offers a financial incentive, I think like a lot of other people I'd be personally worried about crashes, hardware/software problems and incompatibilities, and data loss.

Even still, it's an intelligent move to have one OS for all devices, and it sounds like xbox owners may especially benefit.

I'm not sure how well Windows 10 will be able to compete with Android for devices, though - Microsoft still don't understand the internet, let alone mobile devices - though the suggestion of ditching Internet Explorer might be a step in the right direction!


----------



## markpud (Jan 21, 2015)

Free upgrade is great, but their hand has been somewhat forced by Apple doing the same for a while now.. 

I got Win 8 for peanuts when it came out, but the update to 8.1 definitely ironed out many glaring issues. I'm sure I'll jump to 10 pretty quickly, allowing a month or so for any major issues to get sorted!

I can't imagine my phone will change from Android though. Not even HTC's lovely Win phones could so far tempt me from their equally lovely Android ones! If they can get the ecosystem thriving then their may be a chance, but it's a bit chicken and egg I think with people reluctant to jump to Win phones because of a lack of apps, and devs unwilling to prioritise app development due to lack of userbase... We shall see if MS can overcome this.


----------



## Nick B (Jan 21, 2015)

I will go with this but will wait maybe six months before switching. My lappy runs 8 and my desktop 7 so will switch both. I really do not like windows 8 so am glad they are ditching it. I haven't used IE for years so, makes no odds to me if they ditch that too.
I can't see me realistically moving away from android mobile and tablet though to be honest.


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 21, 2015)

And loads of charges from subscription services when you forget to cancel after free period.
1981 - 2005 I was a massive user and promoter, installer  of MS. They have lost the plot. Last 10 years has been merely eye-candy.

Windows Phone is practically dead. They need to make sure Win10 Desktop/Laptop works sensibly, that is their only profitable market, which they alienated by trying to make it like Windows phone.


----------



## Glitch (Jan 21, 2015)

Microsoft seem to be following their usual strategy of every other OS being the one that works.

What I've seen of Windows 10 is much closer to Windows 7 than it is to 8. I don't see Microsoft expanding outside the desktop/laptop market anytime soon. Xbox may be one area, but I don't use consoles so can't really comment on that side. I for one won't be looking to get a Windows tablet/phone.


----------



## Michael Colton (Jan 21, 2015)

The whole augmented reality thing has never appealed to me. I hope this sort of thing continues to get developed purely for the sake of progress, but I have no interest in wearing anything on my head besides my regular glasses. Why do I care if a Skype video is on my screen versus a wall? Why would I want to play Minecraft on my coffee table? It does not compute for me, but more power to developing new things.

As for the OS, I will upgrade whenever it comes out. Regardless of what I am using, I never fail to update to the newest simply because I hate the complications of not doing so. As for phones, I am locked into my iPhone plan for quite a while. After that, I will be going purely for cheap. I keep getting 'nice' phones that have a ton of features I never use. I don't take pictures, I don't record video, I don't use apps. I text. That is all my phone is used for. I don't even use it as a web browser.


----------



## Dave (Jan 21, 2015)

It must be cheaper for them to support one operating system. Few people liked Windows 8 over Windows 7, and although 8.1 just about does it, many haven't bothered to upgrade. There has been no recent great leaps in memory or processing power in laptops, so people have stayed with their old machines for longer than before. When they stopped supporting XP they upset a lot of people who liked it, and I think some people think that (like Football Shirts) they change the OP too often for no good reason other than to make money. It is only free for a year, but by that time no one will be going back again. I think it therefore makes business sense for them to offer it for free. I doubt it will help them break into the smartphone market very much. There are simply too many Apple apps already out there. Like Betamax vs. VHS, iPhones, iPods and iPads are just ubiquitous.


----------



## Culhwch (Jan 21, 2015)

Dave said:


> There are simply too many Apple apps already out there. Like Betamax vs. VHS, iPhones, iPods and iPads are just ubiquitous.



I don't now about that. I'd imagine there's pretty much an equal market share with Android. But Windows definitely is the poor cousin.


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 21, 2015)

Glitch said:


> usual strategy of every other OS being the one that works


That's actually a myth.
NT 3.1, NT3.5, NT3.51, NT4.0 Win2K(NT 5.0), Win XP (NT 5.1), 2003 Server (NT 5.2) all worked.
Win 3.1, WFWG3.1, WFWG3.11 Win 4.x (Chinese Win 3.1x), Win95a, Win95b, Win98, Win98SE all poorer than NT, they were all more less OK. Win Me was junk (A sort of Win98SE Millennium Edition)
Of DOS 1 to 7, only DOS was really really bad and DOS5 poor. DOS 2.11, DOS3.3 and DOS 6.22 were the "best"
Vista was junk, =NT6.0, the Win 7 is Win6.x a fix of Vista. Win8 is just annoying, you can add a classic shell and turn off  stupid Metro and then it's OK.
The Really bad Windows 1.x, 2.x, Win286, Win386, WinME
Win3.0 and Vista poor

So it's not alternate versions.


----------



## Dave (Jan 21, 2015)

You might be right. I have never had an Android. I've already ditched my Blackberry for an iPhone though.


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 21, 2015)

Glitch said:


> Windows 10 is much closer to Windows 7 than it is to 8


Just on the GUI.
Underneath it's more like Win8.1 except more so. So apart from vague desktop GUI "impact" Win 10 isn't much like Win7 at all. Win7 and Vista are almost identical, Win7 really is only a bug fix and it's a disgrace it wasn't free to Vista owners as NT3.51 was to NT3.5 owners and all SIX service packs of NT4.0 were.


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 21, 2015)

Culhwch said:


> I'd imagine there's pretty much an equal market share with Android


No!
Android is now 85%!
Apple is a premium product* and very few new phone models to choose

http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp




Blackberry is near death since Q3 2013
iOS (Apple) about 12%
Windows phone is near flat at a few percent

Apple has x3 to x5 % profit margin compared to others AND on average sells a more expensive product. Hence Apple makes most money. But World wide (i.e. out side California) the Apple iOS is outsold by Android by about 7:1

Probably the world market for Phones is nearly saturated. Tablet sales have fallen about 7% and Android is by far the leader there. MS is almost non-existent on Tablets. They've written off $2Billion I think.


----------



## Lenny (Jan 21, 2015)

I'm probably going to upgrade as soon as I can, with my backups to hand in case something goes pear-shaped. I kinda dig the desktop aesthetics of Windows 8 and 8.1, but have been really put off by the focus on touch, so Windows 10 is going to be very tempting.

---



Culhwch said:


> I don't now about that. I'd imagine there's pretty much an equal market share with Android. But Windows definitely is the poor cousin.



Last I read, Android had about 80% of the market (and had even managed to get ahead of Apple in tablets, by a hair or so), with iOS hovering at 12%.

EDIT: Ray got there ahead of me.


----------



## Michael Colton (Jan 21, 2015)

Another thing that came to my mind with visors (whether the Windows 10 thing or the VR visors) is motion sickness. In many video games I have to turn off motion blur due to how easily I can start to feel ill when I already have a headache. I imagine visors will have a similar problem. I will be curious about any articles describing their ways of fighting that.


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 21, 2015)

Android had 68% of* Tablets* in March 2014. The 7% to 8% recent drop (Phones are still increasing) affected everyone.

*Android overtook iOS on Tablets I think in 2013*.  Now more than 2:1, I expect 3:1 or more in coming year. 

More likely figures on Tablets, taken from an IDC report

```
Operating System     2014 Shipment Volumes     2014 Market Share     2014 YoY Growth
Android              159.5 million              67.7%                16.0%
iOS                   64.9 million              27.5%               -12.7%
Windows               10.9 million               4.6%                67.3%
Other                  0.5 million               0.2%               -70.6%


The weak global tablet market is even affecting Apple, whose iPad accounts
for nearly 28 percent of the market. According to the report,
Apple’s year-over-year iPad shipments will decline, which means it made
and sold more iPads in 2013 than it will in 2014
— even though the company will ship nearly 65 million iPads in 2014.
That lines up with Apple’s own iPad sales figures, which have indicated for
the past few quarters that the company has been selling fewer iPads this year
than in 2013.
```

It's easy to have 67% growth from nearly nothing. I suspect most of the Windows tablets are not ARM, but vertical niche market x86-x64 corporate tablets. Really almost no retail Windows Tablet sales at all.  After all, MS was selling OS for Tablets based on XP in 2003 and various people were selling the hardware to specialist markets. I have a legit disk of XP for Tablets Edition here!


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 22, 2015)

Michael Colton said:


> visors will have a similar problem


The latency is too high and resolution too low. 
They need to track eye and head movement. Most only track head.
Ideally they need to track eye focus and vary the apparent distance away the image is and change the graphics point of focus, none do.

I know how to make (in vague terms) a decent VR rig. It's horribly complicated, needs laser projectors to eyes and something to measure the eye's lens/focus. Eye movement is a lot harder than head movement but a camera can do it.


----------



## Michael Colton (Jan 22, 2015)

All of this sounds like so many ways to give me a headache. But as I said, props to everyone working on this sort of thing. I shall support the progress, just probably not use it.


----------



## J-Sun (Jan 22, 2015)

Ray McCarthy said:


> That's actually a myth.
> NT 3.1, NT3.5, NT3.51, NT4.0 Win2K(NT 5.0), Win XP (NT 5.1), 2003 Server (NT 5.2) all worked.
> Win 3.1, WFWG3.1, WFWG3.11 Win 4.x (Chinese Win 3.1x), Win95a, Win95b, Win98, Win98SE all poorer than NT, they were all more less OK. Win Me was junk (A sort of Win98SE Millennium Edition)
> Of DOS 1 to 7, only DOS was really really bad and DOS5 poor. DOS 2.11, DOS3.3 and DOS 6.22 were the "best"
> ...



I think there's some validity as a figure of speech when you talk about general opinions of "major" consumer WIndows OSes vs. the details of all MS systems. "8 sucks; 7 less so; Vista sucked; XP less so; ME sucked; 98 less so. [Not sure you can say 95 sucked relatively, though.] 3x less so; pre-3 (which doesn't merit even being differentiated) sucked." Good enough for the cheap Star Trek thumbnail sketch.  But I agree that, in detail, it's not as simple as that.


----------



## Brian G Turner (Jan 22, 2015)

I like to play old PC games that were made for Windows 98 or XP. I've had trouble running some before (Microsoft's own _Age of Empires 2_ still glitches on colours) - so I need to be wary of "upgrading" if I still want to play them.

Especially as I don't really need an upgrade, and Windows 7 didn't seem to add much in practical terms over XP - except higher RAM requirements.

So I'd personally struggle to justify upgrading to Windows 10, especially as I use Android/Apple and a PS3, so have no need for consistency between different Windows devices.


----------



## Glitch (Jan 22, 2015)

Ray McCarthy said:


> That's actually a myth.
> NT 3.1, NT3.5, NT3.51, NT4.0 Win2K(NT 5.0), Win XP (NT 5.1), 2003 Server (NT 5.2) all worked.
> Win 3.1, WFWG3.1, WFWG3.11 Win 4.x (Chinese Win 3.1x), Win95a, Win95b, Win98, Win98SE all poorer than NT, they were all more less OK. Win Me was junk (A sort of Win98SE Millennium Edition)
> Of DOS 1 to 7, only DOS was really really bad and DOS5 poor. DOS 2.11, DOS3.3 and DOS 6.22 were the "best"
> ...





J-Sun said:


> I think there's some validity as a figure of speech when you talk about general opinions of "major" consumer WIndows OSes vs. the details of all MS systems. "8 sucks; 7 less so; Vista sucked; XP less so; ME sucked; 98 less so. [Not sure you can say 95 sucked relatively, though.] 3x less so; pre-3 (which doesn't merit even being differentiated) sucked." Good enough for the cheap Star Trek thumbnail sketch.  But I agree that, in detail, it's not as simple as that.



It was just a tongue-in-cheek reference to the last few versions 98-ME-XP-Vista-7-8-10?



Ray McCarthy said:


> Just on the GUI.
> Underneath it's more like Win8.1 except more so. So apart from vague desktop GUI "impact" Win 10 isn't much like Win7 at all. Win7 and Vista are almost identical, Win7 really is only a bug fix and it's a disgrace it wasn't free to Vista owners as NT3.51 was to NT3.5 owners and all SIX service packs of NT4.0 were.



Yes I know it's more of 8 than 7 underneath, but from a usability point of view it feels more like 7 than it does 8.

Windows 8 on a desktop with multiple large monitors is practically a joke. Unfortunately a lot of the criticism levelled by consumers after the release of Windows 8 were also pointed out by developers in the beta versions. What's the point of putting out a beta if you're not going to listen to the feedback!


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 22, 2015)

Seems to be a lot of nonsense in BBC article and conflation of quite different things.

I doubt the visor is more than stereoscopic 3D overlay on your normal view, a sort of combo of Google glass and Occulus Rift etc. I think Marketing are hyping. Holographic is extremely unlikely.

There will be a lot of nonsense about this till it's out 6 months to a year.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/22/windows_10_good_bad_news/
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/22/windows_rt_no_windows_10_upgrade/
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/22/windows_10_microsoft_hololens_cortana_xbox/

Unless you are in the market for a new laptop etc, it's of no interest.  The Phone features and alleged upgrades for existing phones are rearranging chairs on Titanic. Windows Phone is unlikely to be a success. Before Symbian, Windows CE (what windows phone was before 6.5) was once 20% in USA.  So current 4.6% is pretty bad. That's almost entirely ex-Nokia too. MS gets nothing from Nokia deal as they only licensed IP, making most Nokia phone division staff redundant and they can't keep the  name, also closing all Nokia phone factories.  Nokia only sold the phone division. They make a profit on Networks. They also have some other smaller divisions too.

Microsoft have got hype and marketing and no workable strategy, except with 10 to try and win back alienated desktop users.


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 22, 2015)

Glitch said:


> 98-ME-XP-Vista-7-8-10


but XP, Vista, 7, 8 and 10 are four versions of NT, you also left out some NT versions since 2002 XP release. 64bit XP for Itanium, XP Media Edition (failure), XP Tablet Edition, XP 64 bit for x86-x64, Server 2003, and later server versions NT, 

Win95 (3 versions), Win 98 (2 versions) and Win ME are based on Windows 3.1 and DOS. They are not NT at all. Windows 2000 is unfinished version of NT 5, XP is 5.1 and came between ME and XP in time. NT 4.0 came between Win95 and Win98, but is totally unrelated to win95 or win98. It's developed from NT3.51 with Explorer shell and GDI moved into Kernel.

Then there are all the versions of WinCE (first on Sega, then PDAs), which was renamed Windows phone. But Win Phone 6.5 and later is closer to NT and based on the Zune.

NT4.0 maybe had the most CPU versions, X86, MIPS, PPC, Alpha and 64bit Alpha.


----------



## Glitch (Jan 22, 2015)

Ray McCarthy said:


> but XP, Vista, 7, 8 and 10 are four versions of NT, you also left out some NT versions since 2002 XP release. 64bit XP for Itanium, XP Media Edition (failure), XP Tablet Edition, XP 64 bit for x86-x64, Server 2003, and later server versions NT,



Ray, you seem to like your stats and good on you for that. For me the reference was just a joke; a common perception of the consumer editions of Microsoft Windows (regardless if its correctness).


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 22, 2015)

It's annoying how many people believe it though!


----------



## Rocketship 7 (Jan 23, 2015)

The user brought the iPod's patch cord closer to the visibly intimidated Vista computer. Before the marriage was even consummated, iTunes had a knife at the user's throat just as the pc fired off a fusillade of error messages, demanding unending upgrades to Net Framework before the soundcard would sing a single note. In the terrorized brains of both devices, Microsoft and Apple met in a digital duel to the death, and the user would forever know it as The Day The Music Died.


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 23, 2015)

Ha!
Ever tried setting up an iPod on Win98 back in the day? That was hard.
Nothing wrong with iTunes on XP, Vista, Win7 Win8


----------



## Michael Colton (Jan 23, 2015)

I'm still curious about the whole Steam console/OS/computer rumors. If that will ever happen, I will be immensely curious. I have quite a lot of respect for Steam.


----------



## Kerrybuchanan (Jan 23, 2015)

How long do you think it will be before we have one of these? Hope this link works...





__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=372900576203578


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 23, 2015)

Doesn't work, not sure if strange video format or the usual Facebook EVIL walled garden thing. Probably what ever it is, is on the real internet.

@Kerrybuchanan 
What is it?


----------



## Kerrybuchanan (Jan 23, 2015)

It was a laptop that rolls up until it looks like a rolled gym mat and can be carried on the shoulder. Sadly hypothetical because I don't think the roll-up technology is quite there yet, but an intriguing prospect. They are trying to say it can be everything from a touchscreen laptop through a drawing tablet to a TV. Some neat solutions. The central core detaches and houses USB ports, power cord, etc.


----------



## Ursa major (Jan 23, 2015)

Kerrybuchanan said:


> It was a laptop that rolls up until it looks like a rolled gym mat


Presumably, a properly 3D version of it would roll up into a ball...



...and die....​


----------



## Kerrybuchanan (Jan 23, 2015)

Some screen shots of the item. It does remind me a bit of an armadillo or something....


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 23, 2015)

Kerrybuchanan said:


> the roll-up technology


Can be made today using OLED screen, but pointless.
A Philips subsidiary made a roll up phone prototype. It used eInk display, so mono only and no video although could be large.

The biggest issue is power, space taken by the batteries (which can be flat just inside outer, or flexible.  OLED can be made flexible for screen. But inherently the lifetime of OLED is rubbish, suited to disposable phones. An LCD screen might last 20 years (LED TVs are LCD with LED lighting), OLED maybe 2.

It's less efficient use of space than a rectangular slab.

It's actually of little value for a laptop sized device and dubious for a Tablet. The never launched but actually real MS Courier is a better route, it is two parts, like a thin paper back book and when opened had two screens. But a single screen that bends is possible, if the screen  is on the OUTSIDE when folded, which is more useful. When folded the bottom part of screen can be a touch surface like on the PS Vita, it can be used either way up, with different content. Then unfolded to give a 2x size screen.

I'd like two versions, a wallet/Envelope size to replace a phone, called the Wallet. A paperback book sized version to replace a larger tablet.
Optionally a keyboard can be clipped on and make a 3rd layer when closed.  Similarly a dock (with media bay on Book version) would clip on as a 4th layer.

You see "concept designs" all the time that look cool and are not practical to use, even if ever economically possible, like the Philips roll up phone, too bulky for a pocket.

There is  a Russian phone with LCD on one side and eInk on the other. You can "screen shot" anything to the eInk screen (e.g. map) which is unaffected by phone going flat. When phone not in use/locked, the eInk is the time and notifications as tiny power consumption compared to OLED or LCD.


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 24, 2015)

Hardly any existing Windows phone users will get Windows 10, as I suspected.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/24/not_every_lumia_will_get_windows_10/

Note  that almost all existing current Windows Phones are Nokia designed. Hence other makers have mostly ceased.



> "Like any upgrade to a new platform, not every phone will upgrade or support all possible Windows 10 features," Redmond's blog post cautions, "and certain features and experiences will require more advanced future hardware."
> Windows Phone customers, of course, have heard all of this before. Inadequate hardware was the reason given why there was no upgrade path from Windows Phone 7 to Windows Phone 8. Instead, users of older devices were offered Windows Phone 7.8, which was really just version 7.5 with a coat of version 8 paint slapped on it.
> Yet owners of Windows Phone 8 devices had reason to get their hopes up, because the message from Microsoft earlier was that all devices running the current generation of Windows Phone 8.x would be able to upgrade to Windows 10 (now that Microsoft has dropped the "Phone" branding from its mobile OS).
> @_Y06_ There will be Windows 10 upgrades for all Lumia Windows Phone 8 devices  And we will release new Windows 10 models in the future!
> ...



The supposed Holographic headset is just a so called "3D" VR / AR  headset using stereoscopic viewing made more convincing by using "Kinect" based camera technology that you can see through.
(AR = Augmented Reality, images superimposed on what you really see)
(VR = Virtual Reality, no direct vision at all)
(AV =  Augmented Vision. All real world via eye controlled cameras with Zoom, ALC, Image Intensifier etc, soldiers, fighter pilots, spaceship pilots. AR data and regular text overlays and switchable to VR)

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/23/hololens_more_kinect_than_glasshole/

I've described elsewhere a few years ago how to make a convincing VR or AR headset to hide the fact it's really  a pair of 2D stereoscopic images and not true holographic /3D. So it's a niche product. It might compete in gaming if there is a blind to hide the real world.

True VR  headset needs:

Tracking of Eye and head movement X and Y axis. (camera looking at eye and MEMS sensor on headband) 

Tracking of Eye focus point (sense muscles or lens), really really hard. (MS Hololens won't do this)

Movement of optical distance of image or use lasers (with a laser projected image direct to eye the image is sharp no matter what distance you focus at, just as a laser video projector works at any distance without focus). (MS Hololens won't do this)

Optional superposition of real world directly for  AR applications.
Latency is a problem. You need maybe better than 50ms response time.

Interesting ideas to experiment with are eye gesture GUI, such as open eyes wide or squint to control Zoom, sudden extreme eye movements to pan or scroll. Blinks to enter / leave menu mode and eye controlled menus. These would only really be of use for CAD/CAE though I think.


----------



## Dave (Jan 24, 2015)

Its an old joke but...






*Victorian iPad*


----------



## Ray McCarthy (Jan 24, 2015)

It's ruined though by someone using an after market Crayola (TM) stylus instead of a proper Monochrome compatible iChalk.


----------

