Here are some thoughts I posted in another place, following the deal for Hannu Rajaniemi. I hope some of you will find them of interest:
As an agent, I receive about thirty submissions a week, the vast majority from unpublished authors. And yes, I usually say to them that they should finish their novel (then put it away for a few months and go through it editorially, which they will be able to do more objectively at that point than if they tried to edit it immediately after it was finished - and they were too close to the story) before submitting it to an agent or publisher. As you'll see on my website, I ask for the first six chapters to be e-mailed to me as a Word doc; others want the entire book, or three chapters.
I represent around forty authors. Some of them, like Ramsey Campbell, Eric Brown and Chaz Brenchley, have had novels published over a long period of time. But many are new writers.
Hannu's deal is the tenth I've done for a debut novelist with a major UK publisher in the last three years. And all the others (save one) were done on the basis of a completed novel and synopses for the later books in the deal. The great majority were with authors who had not had any short fiction published - that simply doesn't matter in 2008 in the way it would have twenty years ago. Publishers are selling novels to bookselling chains and a general audience who don't even know or care that there ARE SF magazines, in many cases. There is one criterion: does the novel work? Is it terrifically well told and very commercial? I am very happy to read material from new writers, because publishers ARE looking for new names, not just those they already know. But the writing and storytelling has to be very special. Most editors might see thirty or so books every week, and only take on two debut novels over an entire year. So prose, storytelling and being in a commercial area of the market are all vital. And then there is subjectivity. I ran three SFF imprints in London over a fifteen-year period before setting up the agency (with Little Brown, Random House and Simon & Schuster). Over those years, I took on many books that others turned down, and vice versa. We aren't selling baked beans, every book and author is different. And every book will receive a different response from each and every agent and editor who reads it.
At a time when authors as varied as Alastair Reynolds, Charles Stross, Neal Asher, Justina Robson, Richard Morgan, Jon Courtenay Grimwood, Cary Doctorow, John Scalzi and Liz Williams have been succesfully published in the last decade, I'd say that SF is in a strong position where newer novelists are concerned. And SF is still only 25% or so of the overall genre market, of course, fantasy is still much stronger in sales terms.
But for new writers: yes, you have to treat it as a professional business, that's what it is. And I'd hope every writer would be happy that Hannu's deal is done. It's certainly the exception for it to work this way, on the basis of one chapter, rather than the rule. But surely it is a positive thing, at a time when far too many would-be writers whine that their novel was turned down because major publishers only want 'name' writers. It ain't so. 99% of those books are turned down because they aren't good enough, and for no other reason.
And every editor and agent can turn down 90% of their submissions within ten pages, because the writing isn't good enough.