Shack, that is your real welcome into the club. Smack! Smack! Smack! Smack! Don't worry about it because it's no big deal noticing something and posting regarding it and then finding out that the topic's been done before.
If it'll make you feel better, I'll tell you that I once posted a completely new observation and hypothesis... then TK immediately posted and said that it was an old topic and linked the thread... then Aegon posted and said that I had actually posted on said thread... he had the nerve to link where I had actually had the opposite hypothesis on that topic in the previous thread... most embarassing.
If you cannot make a fool of yourself here, you can't do it anywhere.
Anyway, who caught Jaqen? How was he caught? What was his crime? We don't know. Mayhaps it was in his mission to get caught. Was he supposed to kill a gaoler? Was he supposed to kill a fellow prisoner?
But we do know that Jaqen was going to be sent to the Wall with Yoren. In Yoren's group, there were only three people who might have ranked high enough to merit a hired knife.
Arya joined at the last minute. There's no way Jaqen knew she'd be going... plus she's still alive. So she's out.
Gendry was needed dead by Cersei, but she'd have not spent much money killing a *******. And there's the fact that Jaqen did not kill Gendry. Gendry's out.
This leaves Eddard. Eddard was supposed to go with Yoren to take the Black. Eddard was the highest ranking political prisoner in the kingdom. If he'd died in jail, it would have looked like the Lannister's murdered him. They were sending him to the Wall, but they did not want him living long and passing on secrets... so Eddard had to die soon after he confessed. We know that both of the murders that Jaqen commited for Arya seemed either natural or strange, but that neither looked like murder. I think Eddard was supposed to have an accident on his journey north. Most likely after crossing Moat Cailin... if Eddard died in the North, then the Lannisters would not seem to have been involved.
