The Letter [SPOILERS - ADWD]

[Jaqen H'gar]

I'm pretty sure Stannis was not defeated. Despite the hardships from his march, he still had plenty of men, as well as the Umber men who arrived (Theon was with them first), but his tribesmen, and i would imagine the manderly men. As far as we know, Stannis was really only attacked by Frey's, so he had to have survived that right.

Since the letter says he wants his reek back, we know that he doesn't have theon, especially since theon now has Asha, Qarl the maid, and Tris Botley to protect him. I am very sure that Asha is not going to abandon Theon this time. Early on in ADWD, Tris tells Asha that, in the past, the ruling of a kingsmoot was overturned because the son of the dead king was not present to stake his claim, and Asha kissed him out of joy. Now that she knows Theon is alive, he is her best shot to dethrone Euron Greyjoy.

 

[Culhwch]

I am very sure that Asha is not going to abandon Theon this time. Early on in ADWD, Tris tells Asha that, in the past, the ruling of a kingsmoot was overturned because the son of the dead king was not present to stake his claim, and Asha kissed him out of joy. Now that she knows Theon is alive, he is her best shot to dethrone Euron Greyjoy.

Yeah, that's how I read that, too.

 

[cape_royds]

I haven't given this careful thought, this is just empty speculation:

Perhaps Jon's assassins forged the letter? Clydas could have been in the plot, or an unwitting tool. Thorne might have been clever enough to compose it, and the bitter mocking taunts in the letter have a bit of his tone.

Since Selyse and her crew aren't the biggest Jon Snow fans either, it's not hard to imagine one or more of them conspiring with Marsh et al. People in the Queen's circle would be privy to many of the secrets (while being ignorant of the truth about Mance's baby). Might Selyse be plotting to install her own compliant Lord Commander of the Watch, while her husband is away?

 

[the smiling weirwood]

Why would anyone but Bolton send the letter? Why would Mance send the letter?

I'm sure Ramsay just wants the baby so he can do something awful with it to punish Mance further.

 

[Ursa major]

Mance is the father** of the baby; that may be enough.










** - Or he would be if Jon hadn't switched his baby with Gilly's. (Mance may not be aware of this.)

 

[the smiling weirwood]

But why would Mance want his baby sent to a castle held by Bolton when the baby is safe at the Wall?

Also, how would Mance send the letter, stamped with Bolton's wax and signet ring? Mance also would not know about how Bolton skins women.

Melisandre is not going to burn the child, even if it was Mance's. I'm still curious why she didn't burn Mance. Clearly the whole thing with needing king's blood is some kind of ruse. Or maybe it's not necessary anymore because her power is augmented by the Wall.

 

[Ursa major]

If you look up the thread a few posts, there's a theory, which I find credible, that Ramsay has been replaced by a Mance made to appear like Ramsay (by using glamour). He wants his child because he wants him at hand when he moves on, i.e. makes a run for it. I expect Mance realises that he can't maintain the pretence for too long, not if Roose is still around.

As for what Mance knows, I expect he knows quite a lot, if only because he needed to know as much as he could in order to rescue (the false) Arya. He and his companions have been around a lot of drunk soldiers, many of whom know of Ramsay's activities (which are not that big a secret, as far as I can tell).


Regarding Mel's need for royal blood: Jon may or may not be AA reborn, but he may very well have the rather royal, and up-market , blood of the Targs (barely) running through his veins. (And recall that Mel hadn't cottoned on to Jon's AA-ness in the time period covered by her POV chapter.)

 

[the smiling weirwood]

I have to say, I don't find that theory credible. Melisandre in her POV revealed that a lot of what she does is sleight of hand and confidence games to augment her actual sorcery. The glamour to conceal Mance cost her very dearly, and was not effortless as she made it appear. I very much doubt there's any glamour or illusion going on. I think Ramsay is simple bluffing.

 

[Darth Gregor]

Mance seems as good a guess as any, except what does he have to gain by having Jon ride south? It seems like it's in Mance's best interest for Jon to stay at the wall as he's the most Wildling friendly commander that they're ever going to get up there.

I could see Melisandre as she could have reasons for wanting to draw Jon south (perhaps to try and save Stannis... who she thinks is Azor Azai).

The other person to throw into the mix is whoever's in charge at the Shadow Tower (can't remember his name, but he was one of Slynt's cronies). The only problem with that theory is that he'd have to know a lot more than he's supposed to (particularly the part about Mance still being alive and going south to Winterfell).

 

[The Imp]

Mance seems as good a guess as any, except what does he have to gain by having Jon ride south? It seems like it's in Mance's best interest for Jon to stay at the wall as he's the most Wildling friendly commander that they're ever going to get up there.

I could see Melisandre as she could have reasons for wanting to draw Jon south (perhaps to try and save Stannis... who she thinks is Azor Azai).

The other person to throw into the mix is whoever's in charge at the Shadow Tower (can't remember his name, but he was one of Slynt's cronies). The only problem with that theory is that he'd have to know a lot more than he's supposed to (particularly the part about Mance still being alive and going south to Winterfell).

Aloha Darth Gregor. It's about time you posted something

 

[Darth Gregor]

Aloha Darth Gregor. It's about time you posted something

Thanks - I still have to get used to this board. Didn't realize until after I posted that there was a whole second page of responses (many of which addressed Mance as the possible sender of the letter).

 

[The Imp]

Thanks - I still have to get used to this board. Didn't realize until after I posted that there was a whole second page of responses (many of which addressed Mance as the possible sender of the letter).

When you have some time, go back through the thread pages and look at some of the older stuff. Some of the points you raised have been addressed in older threads. Some of the VERY old stuff is just fascinating to read in the context of when the post was written and what actually became truth. Some lunatic actually though Ned was still alive and an imposter was beheaded in aGoT.

 

[cape_royds]

Another thing that make think the letter is not the work of Ramsay Bolton:

The letter claims Stannis is slain. But there is no characteristic piece of flayed skin accompanying the letter. Ramsay really likes mailing little pieces of flayed skin. The two other letters Ramsay has written so far (one to his Dad in ASoS, the other to Asha earlier in ADwD) both featured pieces of dried flesh.

 

[TK-421]

Why would Mance send the letter really? Conspiracy theories aside!

I mean, Jon is the wildlings only true friend in the North, rather in the Seven Kingdoms. Why send him this letter?

I am missing something here.

 

[vanslyke]

The letter has to be a lie. Things were going so horrible for Bolton and his army at Winterfell. I don't see how everything worked so well for him, especially with Manderely there on the inside.

IMO that is lol.

 

[hadd]

Couldn't Mance change his appearance back to Rattleshirt's?
I'm just curious if that would be a possibility.

 

[juleska]

Why Theon? What's your explanation for it?

I honestly have no idea who sent the letter. When I read it, I took it at face value and assumed it was really Ramsay who sent it. It wasn't until I came back to these forums that I saw people questioning it.

I still say it's Ramsay. The style of the wording and general tone just "reeks" of his nastiness. I believe he wrote the letter and I believe he is grasping at straws and utterly full of you-know-what. I think he's got Mance, and Mance is the reason he knows of lightbringer, Stannis, the false burning, and the mission to rescue Arya. I think he's lying about Stannis being dead to draw Jon away from Castle Black and pull him towards Winterfell, which would've worked had he not been attacked.

And as I was typing that just now it occurred to me....

It's been speculated that at least one of the knives was poisoned because he wasn't able to move his fingers properly, as if his motor skills were being affected. What if Mel was casting some kind of protective spells around him that made it seem as if he was dying but really protecting him from mortal peril? To do that she would have to "take over" his body to some degree and that would explain his sudden loss of motor function. Mel knew the letter was coming, she told him to look to the sky. She had to allow him to be attacked to stop him from charging into certain death in a race to Winterfell to confront Ramsay. Ramsay will get his comeuppance eventually, but there was no way Jon Snow going alone on a hard ride to Winterfell through winter snows was going to deliver it.

So that's my new crackpot theory: Mel didn't cause the attack, but she did interfere with the attack for the purpose of saving Jon on more than one level. And there must be a higher purpose for her saving him. She knows he's not done yet.

 

[juleska]

Another thing that make think the letter is not the work of Ramsay Bolton:

The letter claims Stannis is slain. But there is no characteristic piece of flayed skin accompanying the letter. Ramsay really likes mailing little pieces of flayed skin. The two other letters Ramsay has written so far (one to his Dad in ASoS, the other to Asha earlier in ADwD) both featured pieces of dried flesh.

The missing piece of skin tells me that Ramsay is lying, not that he didn't write the letter.

 

[Glaysher]

The missing piece of skin tells me that Ramsay is lying, not that he didn't write the letter.

It may mean that he has made a deal with Mance, which is why he is asking for Mance's son and hasn't sent a piece of Mance to the Wall.

 

[juleska]

Could be, but I doubt it. Ramsay doesn't play well with others, and doesn't have the sense of his father to forge alliances. He only knows how to destroy things. The letter is full of lies that are crude, cruel and stupid....just like Ramsay is. I firmly believe that Ramsay wrote the letter in a desperate attempt to regain the upper hand.