The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

[MWagner]

Martin was stalled on the books before the TV show made him a star. And if he was only interested in making money, he'd be churning out book after book.

No, he bit off far, far more than he could chew, and reached a point, sometime during Feast of Crows, where he came to dread and hate writing the books.

 

[althea]

I am afraid George has lost something during the long wait for the final book in this series - me.
I read each book as it came out,between each one being published I was in a state of high anticipation.
This time I have gone off the boil. Now I am not bothered.

 

[Toby Frost]

Apologies if this is a stupid question, but given that killing off characters was at one point his signature trick, can't he just have a big battle and thin the numbers down? Or are there enough clear factions for him to merge characters into groups? Or is that not practical at this point?

 

[Overread]

I think a sudden "and then everyone died" would be a very poor way to end his series - right up there with "and then he woke up and it was all a dream."

Yes it works, but its a very cheap way to write yourself out of a plot hole or to wrap things up in a few pages. If anything he can end Game of Thrones on a few major events, but still leave a few storylines wide open.

 

[Brian G Turner]

can't he just have a big battle and thin the numbers down?

The TV series started to cut down (kill) the number of characters in the Winds of Winter equivalent season, and the whole narrative moved toward being much more manageable. My expectation is that the book would do something similar.

 

[Narkalui]

I'm pretty sure the Damphair's number is up given this great Lovecraftian ritual that Euron seems about to perform...

 

[Judderman]

We should remember that the TV series lately had a lot of issues regarding the movement of troops or individuals in apparently very little time compared to how others were moving around. Not something that it would be so easy to acceptably fit together in the books.
I do hope there is some good culling on Winds of Winter so the final book becomes a relatively straightforward and fun one to write. But I think there will still be knots left untied to the end.

In terms of book sales if Winds of Winter is out after the last TV series that likely will lead to much less potential sales. But I now change my Winds of Winter prediction to Feb 2020.

 

[Overread]

Honestly even if GRRM only sold books to his pre-TV series fanbase then he'd still be onto a strong seller. And lets face it for all those who have lost faith/interest I bet a large number would turn around fast when a release date is announced.

 

[Koopa]

obviously i'll buy wow. i just feel sad knowing i will never get to read the last chapter. i prob. wont buy the prequel he just finished. i'll peruse it in the shop at best.

 

[MWagner]

We should remember that the TV series lately had a lot of issues regarding the movement of troops or individuals in apparently very little time compared to how others were moving around. Not something that it would be so easy to acceptably fit together in the books.

Yeah, there's no way Martin will abandon all pretense of plausibility when it comes to travel and time the way the show-runners have. Whatever remaining portion of the story he puts to paper, it'll be written his way.

 

[althea]

I wonder if he is all mixed up because the books and the TV series are different. It must be difficult to reconcile the two stories.

 

[MWagner]

Martin was all mixed up even before the TV show due to the incredible scope of the books. That's why he has a Song of Ice and Fire lore expert on the payroll - to make sure he's keeping everything straight in terms of character appearance, lineages, timelines, etc.

 

[althea]

That is interesting.I'm sure most writers work it all out for themselves.

 

[MWagner]

That is interesting.I'm sure most writers work it all out for themselves.

Martin has spooled out a world and story vastly more complicated than those of most writers. I can't think of any other works of fiction that have anything close to the scope of characters, locations, backstory, and plotlines as A Song of Ice and Fire. That's why writing the series has become such a burden - he let out far too much yarn, and now it's hopelessly tangled.

 

[Overread]

Wagner, Malazan book of the Fallen is bigger in scope and has just a wide range of characters that die off.

I think the big difference is that many authors that do big stories like Game of Thrones, will often write a very detailed plan before they publish. So that even if not every book is written out, they have a clear written setup of how each book will pan out; they just need flesh adding to the bones as it were.

With Game of Thrones its evolved over time somewhat and I think Martins early plans were perhaps not as tight as might be. Also don't forget he wrote out a huge time jump he was going to include so a huge bunch of stuff is already thrown out from his earlier plans.


You can see publish-as-you-go affects all authors. Info gets forgotten, little and big things shift around. Even writing style can change. Compare something like The Colour of Magic to Pyranids or Going Postal.


edit of course it should be noted that even a very detailed plan can come up with problems. Any author can miss things that add up from earlier books to cause problems in latter books; and lots of little things can add up to big problems.
The real issue is that he's already set in stone the early books. So he can't go back and chop and change. Of course this has a bonus, already publishing material brings in income, gets the name out there and also sets things in stone otherwise some authors can get stuck in a rut forever changing.
But the big downside is he can't go back and edit any thing. He can get away with some subtle changes here and there; or present some characters as telling lies earlier or getting information wrong for glossing over details (Robin Hobb does this latter one when at the end of her first series her lead character goes on a jaunt around part of the world he lives in and describes, very briefly, a few areas that are later major areas - one being a river that he casually navigates that is later proven to be highly acidic to the point it destroys wood - a fact later elaborated on by that character with a tiny bit more depth. She gets away with it because in all relation to that character the interaction and description were very casual and short

 

[Koopa]

Didn't Fitz say the acid ate up the boat and he and nighteyes didn't want to get near the water again after finding themselves in it?

 

[Overread]

Aye something like that; however that comment was put in within the second series with Fitz (after the Liveship Traders series which was set in the region with the acid river). At the end of her first trilogy in Assassin's Quest the comment is:

"We have been south to Chalced, and even beyond Bingtown. We have walked up the banks of the Rain River and ridden a raft back down. We have discovered that Nighteyes does not like travelling by ships, and I don't like lands that have no winters."

It's a casual ending to a story that puts no depth to the content and more reflects a passing of time. Even though one could never just sail a raft down the Rain River. In the context of the story it works; the comment itself is so short and simple and at point in the story where the author is no longer setting a scene, but making closure to the book. So its the kind of one-off comment that 99.9% of readers have no problem with the author changing as the world grows; heck most likely don't even notice it (its actually to her credit that she expands on this at the start of her second Fitz and Fool series)

 

[althea]

As mentioned,Robin Hobb's books are epic in scale too.
So are Terry Goodkind's. His The Sword of Truth series was eleven thick books long and there are numerous spin offs from that series.
After I finally finished TSOT series I said I wouldn't read any more Terry Goodkind. But I have ,I recently read Death's Mistress and I was back in that world again.I have a feeling I will read more.

 

[Judderman]

Quite interesting that in a blog comment reply George said his publishers wanted him to split WoW into two. Though he has resisted the temptation. Clearly they were getting exasperated. Hopefully that was something they suggested long ago and not based on him still having lots to write.
He also confirmed he had done nothing on a Dream of Spring. And also mentioned various famous authors who left some novels unfinished.

 

[Overread]

Even if Winds of Winter was half full of random letters it would still sell like crazy; plus the publishers will be more than aware that the best time to sell it is whilst the TV series is going strong. The die-hard fanbase will still pick up the book whenever, but the casual fans will move on in time once the TV series is out of the lime light.

Indeed the fan falloff can be pretty big and come quite suddenly (Games Workshop had this with their Lord of the Rings model line that sold really powerfully whilst the films were coming out; but then dropped off fast once the films were gone and all those casual buyers moved on.