Wherefore Dorne?

[Eulalia]

How do you think GRRM will use the whole Dorne story?

 

[Eversummer]

I'm pretty curious with the appearance of another *******, this Daemon Sand. Will he have something to do with the second Daenerys? Hopeless romantic.

 

[Reivax26]

I expect Dorne to help Aegon crush the Lannisters. If Daenerys can ever get across the ocean and link up with Aegon's companies and the army of Sunspear we will finally see the last of the Lannisters.

Then they can all fight "The Others". Also I am a firm believer that it will be Daenerys that kills the Red Witch.

 

[Tywin]

Is this still really about the Lannisters? Once Cersei dies the Lannisters look like a competent and courageous house that will be needed against the others.

And why does the Red Witch need to die?

 

[Eversummer]

Defending your House, eh, Ty? I like the idea of Jaime choking Cersei to death thus making the Valonqar prophecy to reality.

Dorne must be headed by Arianne Martell with the help of the Sand Snakes as Prince Doran is incapable to play the game of thrones and Quentyn has died in Essos.

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

Defending your House, eh, Ty? I like the idea of Jaime choking Cersei to death thus making the Valonqar prophecy to reality.

Dorne must be headed by Arianne Martell with the help of the Sand Snakes as Prince Doran is incapable to play the game of thrones and Quentyn has died in Essos.

I don't really think Doran is incapable of playing the game. He is one of the most capable ones in the Westeros.

 

[Needle]

Defending your House, eh, Ty? I like the idea of Jaime choking Cersei to death thus making the Valonqar prophecy to reality.

Dorne must be headed by Arianne Martell with the help of the Sand Snakes as Prince Doran is incapable to play the game of thrones and Quentyn has died in Essos.

I don't really think Doran is incapable of playing the game. He is one of the most capable ones in the Westeros.

I have to agree with Srylanna here. Doran is extremely capable. He has what no one else I can think of does: patience. The GOT is like cyrvasse (chess in our world) the moves you make now are well behind the moves in your mind, a set up for the ending. He once said he was the grass that hide the Viper, well now the Sand Snakes are loss and I believe the grass itself is about to become deadly. With Dany and Aegon (false or not) coming the time is near and he knows it.

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

I have to agree with Srylanna here. Doran is extremely capable. He has what no one else I can think of does: patience. The GOT is like cyrvasse (chess in our world) the moves you make now are well behind the moves in your mind, a set up for the ending. He once said he was the grass that hide the Viper, well now the Sand Snakes are loss and I believe the grass itself is about to become deadly. With Dany and Aegon (false or not) coming the time is near and he knows it.

I can think of a person or two or three with patience necessary to play this giant scale game of cyrvasse. Doran, Varys, Ilyrio (I would never underestimate Varys' partner in crime) and maybe even Littlefinger. All patient, all intelligent and all deadly in their own respective manner. It will be interesting to see what other moves they will make. However, I wonder who would adapt the fastest if someone would toss their board and pieces to the ground or if they found out something that would have an unprecedented influence on the game and thus made all their plans worthless.

 

[Koopa]

Meh, not much a Doran fan.
He's got a few things going for him.
And i do want to root for him.

But sending from all appearance useless, naive and even slighly dumb son to woo the dragon Queen with two helpers...

 

[Ursa major]

Crackpot theory time...

Now I've generally accepted that a certain "instrument of battle", mentioned in a prophecy, actually means those black brothers up at the wall.


But what if Dorne, pronounced dawn, is Lightbringer...?

 

[devilsgrin]

I can think of a person or two or three with patience necessary to play this giant scale game of cyrvasse. Doran, Varys, Ilyrio (I would never underestimate Varys' partner in crime) and maybe even Littlefinger. All patient, all intelligent and all deadly in their own respective manner. It will be interesting to see what other moves they will make. However, I wonder who would adapt the fastest if someone would toss their board and pieces to the ground or if they found out something that would have an unprecedented influence on the game and thus made all their plans worthless.

of your long-game players, i suspect Varys would be the best adapter. And your "maybe" Littlefinger could definitely adapt - and perhaps the very fastest. Doran i think could adapt, but he would not adapt as quickly. His mind seems VERY much like a cyrvasse board... with his children as pieces of the game.

Tristan and Arianne are very valuable pieces... Arianne especially so - she is a very valuable asset... beautiful, intelligent (if impatient), brave and seductive. there is Nymeria in her veins, and it shows. the sand snakes too are powerful pieces. Each with her own specialty, and fierce Martell blood. They also seem very loyal to their uncle, if like Arianne, frustrated by his "long game."

 

[Reivax26]

Ok here's another theory: Lets say that the idea going around about Jon Snow actually being the son of Ned's Sister and Rhaegar is true. If that is true, then is he the rightful heir to the throne of the Seven Kingdoms or is Aegon? I am not sure how the timing would play out on that since technically they would both be sons of Rhaegar. That would make the prophecy about the 3 dragons true. Dany, Aegon and Jon.

 

[Koopa]

Aegon is older, so if you don't follow right of Conquest, and other such things he comes before Jon in the line of succession.

We actually had a similar thread about his before. Discussing who has the better claim. Now in the last book Tyrion states to Aegon (if i remember correctly) he has a better claim to the throne than Danaerys.

I wonder wether this makes Viserius a false king (i know he did not actually sit the throne, but he did style himelf King, and was known as the Beggar King).
If Viserius was King, one can argue that since he died without succession, Danaerys is next in line, before the children of Rhaegar. But i'm not quite sure about succesion law like that, especially not in GRRM universe.

Like i said we have had a thread about this before , so maybe you can search it and try and find your answer there.

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

Aegon is older, so if you don't follow right of Conquest, and other such things he comes before Jon in the line of succession.

We actually had a similar thread about his before. Discussing who has the better claim. Now in the last book Tyrion states to Aegon (if i remember correctly) he has a better claim to the throne than Danaerys.

I wonder wether this makes Viserius a false king (i know he did not actually sit the throne, but he did style himelf King, and was known as the Beggar King).
If Viserius was King, one can argue that since he died without succession, Danaerys is next in line, before the children of Rhaegar. But i'm not quite sure about succesion law like that, especially not in GRRM universe.

Like i said we have had a thread about this before , so maybe you can search it and try and find your answer there.

The succession rights
Aegon > Viserys > Dany

Since Aegon was presumed dead, Viserys had a right to become a king. After his death, Dany has the greatest claim until Aegon comes in the picture. He isn't as close a relative to Viserys as Dany but he is a male son of an older prince, Rhegar. If it was Rhegar's daughter that had survived and not son, then Dany would have a greater claim or so I think. However, if we presume Jon is Rhegar's legal son, it would be Aegon > Jon > Viserys > Dany.

of your long-game players, i suspect Varys would be the best adapter. And your "maybe" Littlefinger could definitely adapt - and perhaps the very fastest. Doran i think could adapt, but he would not adapt as quickly. His mind seems VERY much like a cyrvasse board... with his children as pieces of the game.

Tristan and Arianne are very valuable pieces... Arianne especially so - she is a very valuable asset... beautiful, intelligent (if impatient), brave and seductive. there is Nymeria in her veins, and it shows. the sand snakes too are powerful pieces. Each with her own specialty, and fierce Martell blood. They also seem very loyal to their uncle, if like Arianne, frustrated by his "long game."

I definitely agree that Arianne is a valuable piece, but is she valuable enough that she cannot be sacrificed? Is there any piece that cannot be scarified at one time or another? And who has the most pieces at the moment?

What do you guys think could completely throw all the main players off their track? What could wipe out all their plans?

 

[Eulalia]

Well, Ursa, the sigil for the Martell's would point to Lightbringer.

I suppose the author wanted to give some of examples of the long game in the game of thrones, even if some of the problems took care of themselves. Perhaps it is even to prove that.

Maybe he wanted one of the players to show what an old sick guy could do, with authority and patience. Some of the locales that have not been part of the recent wars are fairly well off.

Maybe he wanted the Viper to demonstrate the long memories of the Martells and provide an engaging champion for Tyrion.

Maybe he thought up the Sand snakes and thought they were cool.

I could see that he wanted to have some supporters for the Targs that were anxious all along for them to return. Otherwise, Dany (or Aegon) would look more like an invader of Westeros, rather than someone to restore order to the Lannister/ Baratheon chaos and bring on the dragons. But who knows what is really going on. There are a lot of Lannister haters now, including some Lannisters.

Maybe he thought up a desert venue that was the equivalent of Cornwall.

Is Doran giving his children dangerous tasks to see how they do and prove their worthiness? Hasn't worked out very well, although maybe Arianne is learning some lessons.

Aegon could still be an imposter(if Connington has been tricked), and Jon could still be the heir, if Rhaegar married Lyanna. Perhaps that is a long shot now.

 

[devilsgrin]

I definitely agree that Arianne is a valuable piece, but is she valuable enough that she cannot be sacrificed? Is there any piece that cannot be scarified at one time or another? And who has the most pieces at the moment?

What do you guys think could completely throw all the main players off their track? What could wipe out all their plans?

Arianne is not indispensable. If Doran thought her sacrifice would be worth the price to destroy the Lannisters and return the Targaryens... and in particular the Son of his beloved Elia to the throne... i think she'd be rather doomed. He still has an heir to spare after all.

Frankly the Tyrells have the most pieces... and in a scale NO other house can match (except the Freys, and no-one thinks they'll last much longer do they?)... there are dozens of full-blood Tyrells running around, and even an heir who can't do much running back in Highgarden. If Olenna played a harder game, the rest of Westeros would be in serious trouble. She, however, plays an opportunistic game. The Tyrells will be there to sit smiling and beautiful (since they are all attractive at least) beside the winners. They are perhaps the only Great House who is largely indispensable... they control the food, and Winter is Here (not just coming).

Dragons. FULL grown or at least nearly so Dragons. THEY would change the game plan dramatically. Cercei's death will also do it. House Lannister falling to distant cousins would ruin them. The Others will have an impact. I honestly don't think there is one thing that will change the game so hugely for most of the players.
The only other thing likely to make a change is Winter. The impact of winter on the South is largely speculative, but i suspect even so far south as the Reach and Stormlands, Winter's insidious power would be harsh.

 

[Koopa]

And here i thought Cersei was ruining them.

 

[Tywin]

Frankly the Tyrells have the most pieces... and in a scale NO other house can match (except the Freys, and no-one thinks they'll last much longer do they?)... there are dozens of full-blood Tyrells running around, and even an heir who can't do much running back in Highgarden. If Olenna played a harder game, the rest of Westeros would be in serious trouble. She, however, plays an opportunistic game. The Tyrells will be there to sit smiling and beautiful (since they are all attractive at least) beside the winners. They are perhaps the only Great House who is largely indispensable... they control the food, and Winter is Here (not just coming).

Tyrells: How do we really even know this about the Tyrells? It's repeatedly said that they are rich and powerful with a large army, but we don't have any indication of numbers (I remember a lot of talk of numbers back when Renly's host was parading around, but that included his own banners from the stormlands). Even if we believe that Tyrell has the most forces, the track record on their application is poor. They are the "Knight's of Summer" after all; they are young and soft and change sides often. Their only notable warrior/leader is Loras, and his talent seems to lie more in his own personal skill at swordplay and riding than in leading troops. He apparently is currently horribly injured from being reckless in battle (if he is still alive at all).

Analysis: House Tyrell is a paper tiger. Large numbers, lots of money, shiny armor... militarily they look like one big fat target.

Frey: Currently given authority far greater than their power to control. They have a couple thousand household troops from around the twins, plus whatever forces they could raise from Riverrun (probably none that wouldn't mutiny). They are actively hunted by the brotherhood without banners, and the Blackfish is still out and about in the Riverlands. Also they are hated and despised by the entire rest of Westeros because of The Red Wedding. The North Remembers.

Analysis: House Frey is marked for destruction, however the Author will probably keep them around just because it makes readers keep turning pages to see how they finally get their due (a'la Cersei)

 

[Tywin]

Dorne, on the other hand has weathered the civil war so far completely untouched. They are famously fierce and seem more than competent.

 

[Anushka Mokosh]

Dorne, on the other hand has weathered the civil war so far completely untouched. They are famously fierce and seem more than competent.

We are forgetting the Vale. It is also untouched by war and getting ready to make an entrance on the stage.

I agree with you that Tyrells and Freys have numbers, but that those numbers are kind of worthless. And I have a feeling the moves of those pieces aren't in the House Leaders' hands... They too are being manipulated by large scale players. The question is which player controls them the most.