Wherefore Dorne?

[juleska]

The principal difference between Dorne and the Vale is that the Vale has furiously avoided being involved in the war because they were under the rule of a crazy woman and her feeble child, and are now being ruled by Littlefinger to whom they have no allegiance. In short, the Vale wishes to stay out of the war because they wish to remain unmolested. While Dorne, on the other hand, thirsts for vengeance and is anxious to enter the war, but has not because it is ruled by a prince who understands it is not yet time.

If I were Cersei, I'd be much more concerned about Dorne.

 

[devilsgrin]

Tyrells: How do we really even know this about the Tyrells? It's repeatedly said that they are rich and powerful with a large army, but we don't have any indication of numbers (I remember a lot of talk of numbers back when Renly's host was parading around, but that included his own banners from the stormlands). Even if we believe that Tyrell has the most forces, the track record on their application is poor. They are the "Knight's of Summer" after all; they are young and soft and change sides often. Their only notable warrior/leader is Loras, and his talent seems to lie more in his own personal skill at swordplay and riding than in leading troops. He apparently is currently horribly injured from being reckless in battle (if he is still alive at all).

Analysis: House Tyrell is a paper tiger. Large numbers, lots of money, shiny armor... militarily they look like one big fat target.

We don't know exact figures on the number of Tyrells, but of the Great Houses it seems reasonably clear that they outnumber all the rest by a fair amount. It is mentioned several times that the Tyrell army - NOT the Stormlands army... but that of the Reach... numbers in excess of 100000 troops. Many of them ARE Knights of Summer... but many are also veterans of constant skirmishes with the Dorne, Randyll Tarly for instance is also a brilliant warrior and general... handing Robert and his Rebellion its only significant defeat. Not even Rhaegar or BFS could do that.

Loras is far from a "leader." Frankly reading the books and errata material Garlan Tyrell is significantly better in combat - Loras' shining field is jousting, tho, yes he is a very capable warrior (i'd rather doubt Loras is in any way injured - i suspect Olenna's hand in removing him from serious danger). Mace Tyrell is mostly bluster - true - but he is still an intelligent man.

I would never count out an opportunist like House Tyrell. Underestimating them could be fatal to ANYONE who chooses to think them soft. Shiny armor it surely is, but its still steel. and usually comes with a sharp sword and lance. (a rose with thorns perhaps ).

The Reach is perhaps the hardest realm for us to judge, since its the only one we don't have a POV from or in (except for Sam... and he IS a bit fat coward after all - his spine only develops much later). All the others we do... except for the Stormlands perhaps, but Davos may count for them as well as for Dragonstone. Its really hard to judge the Tyrells... but frankly from Cercei, Tyrion, Sansa we get a fairly decent amount of "firsthand" interaction. And they are most definitely not a soft target. They only want to "win" and IMHO they will certainly end up on the right side... Targ loyalists through and through, they've got two dragons to hitch their wagon to now.

 

[Ursa major]

We do have Victarion's account of fighting in one small part of the Reach - the Shield Islands - in his chapter, The Reaver, in A Feast for Crows.

 

[svalbard]

Meh, not much a Doran fan.
He's got a few things going for him.
And i do want to root for him.

But sending from all appearance useless, naive and even slighly dumb son to woo the dragon Queen with two helpers...

I have to say, and stunned your point has being ignored in subsequent posts, but in ADWD, Doran's son appears as little better than the Village Idiot, yet sent on a critical mission. If that was an All-In or big bluff from Doyle Brunson you would say the old man had lost it.

It all goes to my theory that Martin lost plot for his story as far back as the execution of Ned Stark and more so after the Red Wedding.

Do I still enjoy the tale? A big time yes. Would I like a more structured release date of each novel similar to Erikson, yes, I would. This is not to denigrate Martin's tale, just a gentle reminder to get on with it and stop giving us silly sidelines like the Dorne story.

 

[juleska]

Give me the Dorne story as a "silly sideline" over the Iron Islands ANY day of the week. I am so over Krakens.

 

[Tywin]

I have to say, and stunned your point has being ignored in subsequent posts, but in ADWD, Doran's son appears as little better than the Village Idiot, yet sent on a critical mission. If that was an All-In or big bluff from Doyle Brunson you would say the old man had lost it.

It all goes to my theory that Martin lost plot for his story as far back as the execution of Ned Stark and more so after the Red Wedding.

Do I still enjoy the tale? A big time yes. Would I like a more structured release date of each novel similar to Erikson, yes, I would. This is not to denigrate Martin's tale, just a gentle reminder to get on with it and stop giving us silly sidelines like the Dorne story.

Probably closer to the mark than any of us here.

If we analyze this based on what the author is probably trying to convey, I think the message is supposed to be that Dorne has been plotting and brewing revenge at a level and over such a period of time that they should be deadly. Considering that we've seen how absurdly powerful schemers like Littlefinger and Varys appear to be... well this eclipses them and is being carried out by one of the most objectively powerful leaders in Westeros.

If that is what GRRM is trying to convey (and I suspect its something close to that), then he has laid out the overall concept very well, but failed to sell it with the description of the characters that are critical to the outcome of this 'super-plot'.

 

[juleska]

I don't get that notion. Sending Quentyn after Dany was something of a "Hail Mary" for Doran. It wasn't part of the plan. He didn't seem to know much about what a useless sack Viserys was, either. I think Dorne is definitely brewing on revenge and salting old wounds, and has been all along, but I don't think they are as skilled at the game as Varys is, or even Littlefinger. While Doran Martell may outweigh both Varys and Littlefinger in terms of patience, he is not nearly as well informed or able to adapt his plans effectively as either of them are. I get the feeling Dorne expects the Targs to welcome them with open arms....but they know nothing of the Targs that remain. Aegon may indeed be happy to join forces with his blood relatives, but the Martell's don't seem predisposed to even believe he is genuine. So that makes a strong alliance seem unlikely.

The Martells are a much shrewder bunch than the Tyrells (the Queen of Thorns excluded). The Tyrells are opportunistic and vain. I don't think Dany is likely to warm to that. Not after these experiences in Mereen.

 

[Brian G Turner]

If that is what GRRM is trying to convey (and I suspect its something close to that), then he has laid out the overall concept very well, but failed to sell it with the description of the characters that are critical to the outcome of this 'super-plot'.

Not just that - remember that Viserys and Dany were wandering powerless for nearly 20 years. Viserys wasn't called "The Beggar King" for nothing. It's only over the past few years in the story that the last of the Targs have developed any kind of powerbase at all - and even that is just Dany muddling through exotic eastern cities.

Added to that, there is absolutely no love for the Targs from the common folk or the current lords. In AGOT Robert was worried about people rallying around V+D, but that was more from fear than reality, hence why Ned tried to veto an attempt on them. Frankly, the Targs seem nothing more than a bad memory.

All the more reason why it feels a bit odd that in the latest sample chapter, Arriane feels so strong on being promised to a house that has been effectively dead for 20 years.

The fact that Jon Connington can suddenly turn up is more wild card than anything. If he was really that important to the story I would have expected GRRM to have written him in thousands of pages ago. Instead the whole Connington line feels too much like an author trying to distract us from constantly asking: L+R=J?

 

[Ursa major]

The point is that Varys's supposed ally, Illyrio, has been an architect of the rise (and otherwise) of all of the three identified Targ heirs, the two we're sure about (Viserys and Daenerys) and the one we're not (Aegon). (As far as we know, neither Varys nor Illyrio have had anything to do with the fourth possible heir, Jon Snow.)

I've argued elsewhere that there's an overall plan:

Varys, and his co-conspirator Illyrio, wanted Aegon on the throne; in furtherance of this, they have been actively seeking to remove other Targs from the frame:

• Varys helped arrange for Dany's demise; no doubt he was there, behind the scenes, egging Robert on (not that Robert needed much encouragement; Varys will have been keeping this issue on the boil, I expect).
• Illyrio arranged a deal between Viserys (the personification of impatience and someone who believed he was owed respect because of who he was, not what he did) and the Dothraki, who see a bargain as an exchange of gifts (with a rather elastic view of the timescale involved and the size of the payment**), and who don't travel over salt water. That was never going to end well, was it? (I almost feel sorry for Viserys: he'd given his sister - who in other circumstances might well have become his wife - for nothing: no guaranteed help with winning his throne; some of the most difficult in-laws on their world.)

** - The Dothraki never did pay for Dany. Khal Drogo decided to support Dany's campaign to conquer Westeros in a fit of wounded male pride (and the thought of much killing and raping, and many slaves); his intention was to return home to Vaes Dothrak with the spoils.
​

(There's a question of whether Illyrio believed that the dragon eggs would hatch. I suppose it could be argued that if they did not, who would care, and if they did, would they be effective, given the poor state of the later dragons in King's Landing during the Targ reign, except to rile Robert into doing more to kill Daenerys.)


The main thing, though, is the known Targs drew attention from the existence and training of the thought-dead Aegon (assuming Aegon is real). Whether Aegon is real or not does not affect the Varys/Illyrio plan: all they need is for others to believe Aegon is real.

I don't think this is a late bolt-on. We've known about Aegon (or, rather, his demise) from the first book: he's there in the list of Targs at the back of AGoT. And bear in mind that GRRM has been hiding much of what is going on by refusing to give us PoV chapters for Littlefinger, Varys and Illyrio, and having those characters keeping their plans to themselves.

Which leads me to suggest GRRM's ultimate get-out on this subject: of course you don't believe Aegon was in the plans, because no-one (i.e. those not in on the secret) in Westeros and Essos are meant to even consider that Aegon has survived. And yet, there is stuff in the earlier books that one can look at and see that there have been subtle hints about it - and some more open ones. So, in the House of the Undying, someone who could be Rhaegar, says: "Aegon [...] He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire". We have the title of the series associated directly with Aegon identified as an important future character. How big a clue does GRRM have to provide? (Which isn't to say it isn't even more misdirection.)

 

[Ursa major]

It all goes to my theory that Martin lost plot for his story as far back as the execution of Ned Stark...

Many of the events in the books (apart from Dany's story) follow on directly from the death of Ned. Had Ned merely been sent to the Wall, would the North really have risen in the way it did? Would they really have gone to war because they didn't like one particular Baratheon being on the throne (as opposed to one of the other two Baratheons)? It seems rather doubtful, particularly given the approaching winter (which affects the North more than any other of the seven former kingdoms of Westeros).

 

[ThePro]

I think everyone underestimates Littlefinger. As far as naming major players, he and Varys seem the most dangerous and powerful because they weren't brought up in the comforts of royal houses.

Also, I feel like some of the major events of the story (Jon Arryn's death, Joffry's death, Sansa's escape, Tyrion's false imprisonment - and therefore the war of the 5 kings) were all products of Lord Petyr's schemes. If he doesn't end up being one of the major players in some way in the end, I'll be surprised, although, I do expect him to die tragically.

As for Dorne - I do think GRRM has planted too deep of a story there for there not to be some significance, and like Eulalia said, there needed to be a major house in the 7K to actually be awaiting the arrival of a Targ to make the Dany story have any weight.

Which brings me to our young Aegon. So little is being given on him - and he's a late comer to the story. And at the end of the last Connington chapter he's talking about leading a strike - or something - I just remember he was intending to command. Personally, I think he's not long for this World of Ice and Fire. But that's just me. It seems like misdirection and a way to complicate the succession. But I don't think he's the one.

I feel like that's gotta be Jon. If he is who everyone is saying he is, then it makes sense. I mean, Mormont's raven said 'King Jon Show' (with a few repetitions of words here and there) If that's Bran, or the Three-eyed-crow or whoever - it's not a coincidence, I say. Besides, I think of all those vouching for the throne, Jon is the most King-like in a good way and best suited for rule.

So, assuming Jon lives, I think succession will be the least of the issues - it's about who survives. Besides, "when you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die."

 

[Koopa]

Peryr is powerful but unles he has an hitherto unreveiled goal, in regards to the game of thrones he's doings are rather aimless.
Petyr wants to be powerful for the dream that was Catelyn, and is now foisting his everything up on her daughter.

For him, power is a necessity to gain his beloved. Power itself is in truth not important for him, what is important to him is what he believes (and not entirely wongfully) power will get him. Once powerful the greater houses can no longer just discard him. The way House Tully and Stark did when he offered his hand in marriage, and how the rest of the lords treated him in King's Landing.

As such he feels empty to me. Like a man hanging on the ledge that is Sansa, clinging on for dear life. Petyr his actions have had great consequences, but from now on, i feel more then what Petyr does, it will be more important what Sansa does/wants.

@Aegon: he def. feels temporary. Another pretender.
@Jon: I think he's pivotal for the fight against the Others. The only one truly capable from what he has learned during his time on the Wall. But unless he feels duty-committed i don't see him sitting on a throne. I hope he doesn't die tragically in the end, and gets to have a good ending. I believe Dany is set up as the dragon Queen to rule westeros once more. Mayhaps he goes the Tolkien way and have her be the last true Dragon to sit the iron Throne.

 

[juleska]

Peryr is powerful but unles he has an hitherto unreveiled goal, in regards to the game of thrones he's doings are rather aimless.
Petyr wants to be powerful for the dream that was Catelyn, and is now foisting his everything up on her daughter.

For him, power is a necessity to gain his beloved. Power itself is in truth not important for him, what is important to him is what he believes (and not entirely wongfully) power will get him. Once powerful the greater houses can no longer just discard him. The way House Tully and Stark did when he offered his hand in marriage, and how the rest of the lords treated him in King's Landing.

As such he feels empty to me. Like a man hanging on the ledge that is Sansa, clinging on for dear life. Petyr his actions have had great consequences, but from now on, i feel more then what Petyr does, it will be more important what Sansa does/wants.

I agree with all of this. Littlefinger is conniving, adept and flexible....but what's his end game? He wants power for selfish reasons. Varys doesn't actually want power, he wants the right person IN power. There may be some gain for himself in that outcome, but it isn't the power itself he craves. And selfish motivations lead to increasingly desperate choices over time, which will be Littlefinger's ultimate undoing. Especially when Sansa discovers she has a mind of her own (she is Arya's sister after all).

@Aegon: he def. feels temporary. Another pretender.

I thought this until I read the TWOW chapter that GRRM just released. Now I have my doubts.

@Jon: I think he's pivotal for the fight against the Others. The only one truly capable from what he has learned during his time on the Wall. But unless he feels duty-committed i don't see him sitting on a throne.

I'm no longer certain about the direction of Jon's story, but niggling doubts aside I more or less agree with this.

I believe Dany is set up as the dragon Queen to rule westeros once more. Mayhaps he goes the Tolkien way and have her be the last true Dragon to sit the iron Throne.

Of the options on the table, Jon and Dany are best suited to sit the Iron Throne. Jon has more obstacles to overcome (questions of his parentage) and he's needed where he is. Dany is the most experienced in leading an army and ruling a kingdom (even if she's done it poorly at times). Aegon....bless his heart...he's lived a life on the run and only read a lot about being a king. He's never lived it. He's never led anything so much as a drinking song. He feels more prepared than he really is, and I do think it's going to end badly for him.

Dany on the Iron Throne makes so much sense for so many reasons. She'd be the first legitimate female monarch of the Seven Kingdoms. It would be a real change in tradition, a sign of new times. And it seems the logical direction for the story to go, given how many times we've come up against this whole "But you can't ___________, you're a woman," discussion.

Arya: You have to learn to sew and stop playing with swords, you're a girl.

Brienne: You can't be a knight, you're a woman.

Asha: You can't rule Pyke, you're a woman.

Myrcella: The Dornish can't crown her, she's a girl.

Arianne: You're trying to give my birthright to my brother, I'm the heir to Dorne.

Cersei....need I say more?

Yet on the other hand, no one has even once questioned whether or not Dany could be a Queen all by her lonesome....even the Westerosi who travel with her.

Methinks the Reign of the Misogynists is coming to an end in Westeros, and its doom is riding on the wings of a dragon.

 

[Tywin]

Dany on the Iron Throne makes so much sense for so many reasons. She'd be the first legitimate female monarch of the Seven Kingdoms. It would be a real change in tradition, a sign of new times. And it seems the logical direction for the story to go, given how many times we've come up against this whole "But you can't ___________, you're a woman," discussion.

Arya: You have to learn to sew and stop playing with swords, you're a girl.

Brienne: You can't be a knight, you're a woman.

Asha: You can't rule Pyke, you're a woman.

Myrcella: The Dornish can't crown her, she's a girl.

Arianne: You're trying to give my birthright to my brother, I'm the heir to Dorne.

Cersei....need I say more?

Yet on the other hand, no one has even once questioned whether or not Dany could be a Queen all by her lonesome....even the Westerosi who travel with her.

Methinks the Reign of the Misogynists is coming to an end in Westeros, and its doom is riding on the wings of a dragon.

Methinks I spy a new crackpot theory brewing here... Is GRRM brewing up a story that will end in total female leadership of Westeros? Let's move down the 7 kingdoms:

The Crownlands: Danerys Targaryen
The North: Arya, First Queen of the North (What exactly is GRRM grooming her to be? Possibly the first female head of the Starks?)
The Vale: Sansa Stark (Possible after she does away with Littlefinger and dominates young Robert Arryn)
The Iron Islands: Asha Greyjoy (Easily accomplished based on current story)
Westerlands: Myrcella Lannister? (A little more far-fetched, but still do-able)
Dorne: Arriane Martell (Current heir to Dorne)
The Reach: Margaery Tyrell (Olenna Redwyne arguably already does rule the Reach)
The Stormlands: Princess Shireen is the only heir to Stannis
The Riverlands: This is the hardest to pin a female ruler on... Again, possibly Sansa, especially given that she is a daughter of Catelyn Tully and likely heir/wife of Petyr Baelish (current Lord of the Riverlands)

 

[Needle]

Methinks I spy a new crackpot theory brewing here... Is GRRM brewing up a story that will end in total female leadership of Westeros? Let's move down the 7 kingdoms:

The Crownlands: Danerys Targaryen
The North: Arya, First Queen of the North (What exactly is GRRM grooming her to be? Possibly the first female head of the Starks?)
The Vale: Sansa Stark (Possible after she does away with Littlefinger and dominates young Robert Arryn)
The Iron Islands: Asha Greyjoy (Easily accomplished based on current story)
Westerlands: Myrcella Lannister? (A little more far-fetched, but still do-able)
Dorne: Arriane Martell (Current heir to Dorne)
The Reach: Margaery Tyrell (Olenna Redwyne arguably already does rule the Reach)
The Stormlands: Princess Shireen is the only heir to Stannis
The Riverlands: This is the hardest to pin a female ruler on... Again, possibly Sansa, especially given that she is a daughter of Catelyn Tully and likely heir/wife of Petyr Baelish (current Lord of the Riverlands)

Sounds like a plan to me!

 

[Koopa]

The Crownlands: Danerys Targaryen
The North: Arya, First Queen of the North (What exactly is GRRM grooming her to be? Possibly the first female head of the Starks?)
The Vale: Sansa Stark (Possible after she does away with Littlefinger and dominates young Robert Arryn)
The Iron Islands: Asha Greyjoy (Easily accomplished based on current story)
Westerlands: Myrcella Lannister? (A little more far-fetched, but still do-able)
Dorne: Arriane Martell (Current heir to Dorne)
The Reach: Margaery Tyrell (Olenna Redwyne arguably already does rule the Reach)
The Stormlands: Princess Shireen is the only heir to Stannis
The Riverlands: This is the hardest to pin a female ruler on... Again, possibly Sansa, especially given that she is a daughter of Catelyn Tully and likely heir/wife of Petyr Baelish (current Lord of the Riverlands)

Woman no doubt can rule just as well as any man but half of these woman should make the people run for the hills.

Daenaerys: full-of-herself, arrogant woman with 3 dragons she can barely handle. The very fact that she is probably all that is left to unite westeros and bring peace to westeros shows how abysmal things have become. Cause frankly unless she was not the last available option, i wouldn't want here anywhere near me.
Arya Stark: bloodthirsty, killer @ 7, has a sense of justice but is def. a bit warped.
Sansa Stark: finally growing up, might end up a good ruler.
Asha Greyjoy: gets a nod as well.
Arianne Martell: Should make no worse a ruler than a great many men, but still has some growing up to do before she would actually make a good ruler.
Shireen: i feel sorry for the girl, but she is death walking.

As to the riverlands, to give your theory a little boost:
Edmure might die, leaving his wife to rule (or a possible female child)

 

[joepan29]

First off, I’m thoroughly enjoying this new crackpot theory of women rising up in Westeros. While I don’t think “dominance” will come to pass, I do see a result in which women are in a lot more positions of power than before (none).
And in defense of some of the Ladies…Dany showed great leadership in taking Slaver’s Bay, she just should have left it at that. She had NO CHANCE of ever being a ruler of theirs because she was not one of them. All (at least most) of her dumb decisions as queen are really just a result of her dumb decision to stay there in the first place. Arya has seen a lot of death, and although she may be a bit warped, she doesn’t seem blood-thirsty. I think if she were to reunite with Jon, Bran, Rickon, and new and improved Sansa, she may be a bit more sensible.

 

[Tywin]

First off, I’m thoroughly enjoying this new crackpot theory of women rising up in Westeros. While I don’t think “dominance” will come to pass, I do see a result in which women are in a lot more positions of power than before (none).
And in defense of some of the Ladies…Dany showed great leadership in taking Slaver’s Bay, she just should have left it at that. She had NO CHANCE of ever being a ruler of theirs because she was not one of them. All (at least most) of her dumb decisions as queen are really just a result of her dumb decision to stay there in the first place.

I've heard a lot of people gripe about Dany's problem being that she stayed to rule and couldn't because she "wasn't one of them". I think this is flawed and over-simplistic logic, perhaps based in our modern American dominated perspective on things.

Dany's problem of control over the cities of slaver's bay isn't that "she stayed", her problem is that she seems to have lost her will to do what is necessary to control and rule them. On her conquest of the cities she was ruthless, and the suffering caused by her actions was part of what came with the territory. We go from her ordering witches to be burned and men to be strung up to die in public to her marrying a guy who is obviously an insurgent for the sake of saving bloodshed.

I think her return to the wilds with Drogon and her re-introduction to the Dothraki will bring that conqueror's spirit back.

 

[juleska]

I've heard a lot of people gripe about Dany's problem being that she stayed to rule and couldn't because she "wasn't one of them". I think this is flawed and over-simplistic logic, perhaps based in our modern American dominated perspective on things.

Dany's problem of control over the cities of slaver's bay isn't that "she stayed", her problem is that she seems to have lost her will to do what is necessary to control and rule them. On her conquest of the cities she was ruthless, and the suffering caused by her actions was part of what came with the territory. We go from her ordering witches to be burned and men to be strung up to die in public to her marrying a guy who is obviously an insurgent for the sake of saving bloodshed.

I think her return to the wilds with Drogon and her re-introduction to the Dothraki will bring that conqueror's spirit back.

Completely agree. So to bring it back around to the original topic....

Where does Dorne end up? Will Dorne unite behind Dany or Aegon? Will Aegon + Dorne circle back and unite with Dany's cause?

It's an interesting question because the great houses of Westeros are dropping like flies, aren't they? The Starks are either dead or scattered to the wind. The Tullys hopes for survival pin on someone who is presently a "guest" at Casterly Rock. The Arryns survive only through a frail little boy attached to puppetmaster's strings. The Freys are barely held together by their spiteful, petty grandsire who has to die someday. The Lannisters are unraveling like a ball of yarn. The Greyjoys are working on destroying one another. The Martells are pinning their hopes on dragons that are proving to be unreliable. The Tyrells have hung their future on the head of a boy king who is most certainly doomed. And of course, the Baratheons....Robert managed to impregnate half the seven kingdoms but didn't leave a single legitimate heir, and his brother's only heir is (as someone else just pointed out) "walking death".

Westeros is going to be a VERY different place when all is said and done.

 

[Needle]

I had a thought, a dream actually (you know your obsessed when ) that I don't think anyone has presented yet.

Arienne and Aegon! Would bring us back to the beginning in a way, before Robert's Rebellion. Targ and Martell. Rheagar would have been King with his Martell Queen. Seems very possible, Dany is still, after all, on the wrong continent. Arienne is much closer with hopes of proving herself. She was promised to Viserys, to go to Aegon now is not much of a stretch. Someone has to sit the Iron Throne. I think Jon and Dany have more important things to do!