Speculating about the next fifty years

[psikeyhackr]

I see two threats to this trend of progress:

1) The efficiencies unlocked by automation and AI making most human labour unnecessary.

2) The anomie of modern lifestyles. If we don't have to struggle to meet our material needs (see above), will we become little more than glassy-eyed vessels for enervating pleasure? Or perhaps we'll turn away in disgust from libertine self-indulgence, and join religious or social movements that command self-denial and flinty judgement of the Other.

The future is a victim of European thinking.

We are all supposed to have our egos wrapped up in our jobs and the junk we buy.

50 years ago, 1966. The year I graduated from grade school. Star Trek debuted that September. I had been reading science fiction since 1961.

I didn't know Telstar was still in orbit. But what happened to turbine cars? I don't know. I remember hearing a radio annoucer saying they were banned from the Indy 500 because they were too fast. There was even a movie made about them.

We should have had a 3-day workweek by 1990 and accounting should have been mandatory in high school by 1960. Instead we are supposed to buy junk designed to become obsolete to play status games with our neighbors.

"The under-engineered antiquated technology sitting in my drive way is newer and more expensive than the under-engineered junk sitting in your drive way."

Can you really believe it makes sense to keep redesigning cars 47 years after the Moon landing.

So the measured increase in CO2 in the atmosphere was occurring in the 60s but it was not on television. I think the consequences of doing stupid things with technology for the last 50 years will overshadow the new advances but some people will use the advances as an excuse to ignore problems.

Swords are cool, light sabres are stupid, but I'll take a machine gun to kill the cool dudes with the swords.

psik

 

[BAYLOR]

In 50 years , there will be self aware hologram selfies and they will be given the right to vote.

 

[psikeyhackr]

That was the wrong video, it's just an ad.

psik

 

[galanx]

Book review of "Age of of Em" by Robin Hanson

Somewhat more than fifty years in the future, definitely twisted, and long (the review).

According to Hanson, AI is really hard and won’t be invented in time to shape the posthuman future. But sometime a century or so from now, scanning technology, neuroscience, and computer hardware will advance enough to allow emulated humans, or “ems”. Take somebody’s brain, scan it on a microscopic level, and use this information to simulate it neuron-by-neuron on a computer. A good enough simulation will map inputs to outputs in exactly the same way as the brain itself, effectively uploading the person to a computer. Uploaded humans will be much the same as biological humans. Given suitable sense-organs, effectuators, virtual avatars, or even robot bodies, they can think, talk, work, play, love, and build in much the same way as their “parent”. But ems have three very important differences from biological humans.Book review of "Age of of Em" by Robin Hanson

[they don't have bodies; they can be copied almost infinitely; they can live at different speeds]
.....
For example, suppose you want to hire an em at subsistence wages, but you want them 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Ems probably need to sleep – that’s hard-coded into the brain, and the brain is being simulated at enough fidelity to leave that in. But jobs with tasks that don’t last longer than a single day – for example, a surgeon who performs five surgeries a day but has no day-to-day carryover – can get around this restriction by letting an em have one full night of sleep, then copying it. Paste the em at the beginning of the workday. When it starts to get tired, let it finish the surgery it’s working on, then delete it and paste the well-rested copy again to do the next surgery. Repeat forever and the em never has to get any more sleep than that one night. You can use the same trick to give an em a “vacation” – just give it one of them, then copy-paste that brain-state forever.

Or suppose your ems want frequent vacations, but you want them working every day. Let a “trunk” em vacation every day, then make a thousand copies every morning, work all the copies for twenty-four hours, then delete them. Every copy remembers a life spent in constant vacation, and cheered on by its generally wonderful existence it will give a full day’s work. But from the company’s perspective, 99.9% of the ems in its employment are working at any given moment.

(another option: work the em at normal subjective speed, then speed it up a thousand times to take its week-long vacation, then have it return to work after only one-one-thousandth of a week has passed in real life)

And then it gets weird

Slate Star Codex

 

[BAYLOR]

In 50 years we will have self aware AIs running the world and making all decisions and tucking us in at night. The world got that way because at the time decided that it was a good idea.

 

[Lew Rockwell Fan]

In 50 years we will have self aware AIs running the world and making all decisions and tucking us in at night. The world got that way because at the time decided that it was a good idea.

Ok, Daneel.

 

[BAYLOR]

Ok, Daneel.

Its conceivable that machines in 50 will be a hell of lot more powerful and sophisticated to the point where they will be making their own decisions without human input or intervention.

 

[ThomasG]

This topic is useful to me. I am a newbie as a writer.
Frankly, I have been unable to accompany the fast changes , technological and social.
Yet I am trying to write a book, hard scifi I guess it would be, that takes place in the not too distant future (30 to 50 years) and need to make it reasonably real so that the story is not stale in 5 years!
In the story There is AI, driverless cars, nanotechnology, fusion cells, but not, for example, human-computer interface. The story will at least need to make mention of such novelties in passing, even if they are not the focus.

 

[Harpo]

It’s been ten years since I started this thread, time for an update?

The current “next big thing” is AI. Where will that be in another forty years?

And what else has developed in recent years, which might further develop in ways we can only imagine?

 

[Robert Zwilling]

We have experienced an unprecedented recent period of stability which has spoiled everyone, allowing us to think our achievements made that happen when it was just being in the right place, at the right time. That is gone, as well as any kind of insulation that time and space used to afford us. Global but controlled instability in all countries because the weather is going to get a lot more destructive before any kind of equilibrium sets in because the polar regions will melt, they just haven't finished melting yet. People will continue to push forward technologically, no matter what is going on socially. India tries to walk a neutral path but is a big problem for China. Nationalism will become distributed in a checkerboard style throughout countries as well as technological advancement, zones of stagnation and accelerated advancement will happen in all countries. There will probably also be more nuclear accidents, and some kind of fusion power should take hold, but also in a checkerboard fashion. There will be settlements on and inside the Moon, Mars will probably only be inhabited by orbiting hotels.

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

If we are talking 50 years (not 100) then I think advances in space travel will be limited. Sure, computer tech and consequently automation has advanced significantly in recent years, but electro-mechanical engineering not so much. And space travel remains a huge electro-mechanical challenge (not every problem can be solved solely with computers). I think we will get back to the Moon in the next twenty years, but I suspect Mars may take a little longer than 50.

I see the old chestnuts about lives of leisure and three-day working weeks appearing in this thread. Folks have been saying that since the industrial revolution. But our system of work has little to do with providing the essentials of life; not any more. A Capitalist system expands commerce to take advantage of available resources (material or human). Our economic system is not designed to give people time off once basic needs are met (else we could have been on 3-day weeks before the end of the last century).

I do worry that there is a tendency to look to technology (and sometimes self-promoting individuals) as an answer to our problems (like climate change for example). Believing in magic bullets is an excuse for inaction. The changes needed are widespread and structural and will affect individual lives. That's why I am somewhat pessimistic that our problems will be solved.

 

[psikeyhackr]

I see the old chestnuts about lives of leisure and three-day working weeks appearing in this thread. Folks have been saying that since the industrial revolution. But our system of work has little to do with providing the essentials of life; not any more. A Capitalist system expands commerce to take advantage of available resources (material or human). Our economic system is not designed to give people time off once basic needs are met (else we could have been on 3-day weeks before the end of the last century).

Our economic system is a power game where most kids are kept ignorant of what is really going on.

Technology has made it possible to put Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations in Project Gutenberg. It has been there since 2001. If you search it for "and account" you will find multiple instances of "read, write and account". He also used the word 'education' Eighty Times.

When have you heard an economist, educator or accountant say that accounting/finance should be mandatory in the schools?

One accountant told me, "I wouldn't mind as long as it was not done until after I retired in six years."

That is one of the things that annoys me about science fiction. Lots of authors create future societies but they still do 9 to 5 jobs in these cultures centuries from now. How much unnecessary work is created today because of planned obsolescence that economists do not talk about?

 

[Cthulhu.Science]

It's interesting to read the comments from ten years ago.
One prediction that has stuck around for at least the last couple hundred years is that automation will make human labor unnecessary and so all mankind can live the life of leisure.

This is lovely and hopeful. The issue about leisure, though, is not as much about production capacity as it is about ownership and distribution. There is plenty of food, shelter and clothing to go around right now, but still many people without it. Those who control these commodities are not seeking a system to distribute them to everyone.

From what I understand, the longshoremen that used to unload ships by hand and were replaced by shipping containers didn't get to live out lives of luxury. Neither did all the store clerks that were replaced by bar codes and automation.

As we sit here today, some people in power are publicly questioning whether access to water, medicine, basics of human life is a human right. Years from now, when labor is not required to produce products, will anything be a "human right?" In the US, the foray into the idea that clean air and water is a right is now being openly questioned by many politicians.

What will 50 years from now look like? My first prediction is that I won't be around to see it.
But generally it will look very much like it does today. Perhaps more extreme separation between those who own 99% of everything and everyone else. Will people have contract lenses and ear implants that provide "augmented reality"? Perhaps. Talking about constant connectivity? Automated flying cars? maybe.

Will the US adopt the metric system -- Absolutely NOT!

 

[Dave]

Nah! The future is biological. Genetically modified plants, animals, and humans. For all the hoo-ha about 'Frankenstein' GM crops there is little difference to breeding using natural mutations, it is just a much faster process. It will make crops higher in protein, more resistant to disease and climate change. I can't see us being over-run by potatoes and broccoli from this. I can see us being over-run by Japanese Knotweed and Himalayan Balsam. Plants like those are incredibly good at surviving and reproducing, so successful that they have become very invasive.

Regarding GM, I see animals is a little different. We will still see invasive species like rats, squirrels, rabbits, pigeons and parrakeets spreading into areas where the climate has changed and the existing species have died, but if you look at mammals, there are far, far more domesticated farm animals in the world than wild animals, and we have already bred female farm animals that cannot be inseminated, or nurse their young, without our involvement, so I've no idea what GM will bring us.

I'm not so sure about vat-grown meat. Apparently, it takes more energy and is worse for the environment than farm animals. So, I guess we will be eating these GM cereals and powdered insect protein that I keep hearing about.

And we already have GM humans. Just this month it was revealed that babies have been born with three parents. It will prevent and cure genetic diseases that are debilitating and shorten lives, but it isn't such a huge leap from doing that to "curing" other genetic differences. Who decides what is a "correct" human genome? And I thought Eugenics had gone away. And it isn't such a huge leap from that to choosing the colour of hair, eyes, shape of noses and mouths out from a catalogue. And once it becomes fashionable to make changes, then it also becomes fashionable to introduce other body modifications too.

'It's so cool that you have six fingers on your hands.'
'My parents were very creative and pretty progressive! They wanted me to be pianist but I ended up as eSports Champion of 2051 instead.'
'Wow! And who is your friend?'
"Oh! This is my brother, Leo. He has a tail!'

 

[Cthulhu.Science]

Nah! The future is biological. Genetically modified plants, animals, and humans. For all the hoo-ha about 'Frankenstein' GM crops there is little difference to breeding using natural mutations, it is just a much faster process. It will make crops higher in protein, more resistant to disease and climate change. I can't see us being over-run by potatoes and broccoli from this. I can see us being over-run by Japanese Knotweed and Himalayan Balsam. Plants like those are incredibly good at surviving and reproducing, so successful that they have become very invasive.

Regarding GM, I see animals is a little different. We will still see invasive species like rats, squirrels, rabbits, pigeons and parrakeets spreading into areas where the climate has changed and the existing species have died, but if you look at mammals, there are far, far more domesticated farm animals in the world than wild animals, and we have already bred female farm animals that cannot be inseminated, or nurse their young, without our involvement, so I've no idea what GM will bring us.

I'm not so sure about vat-grown meat. Apparently, it takes more energy and is worse for the environment than farm animals. So, I guess we will be eating these GM cereals and powdered insect protein that I keep hearing about.

And we already have GM humans. Just this month it was revealed that babies have been born with three parents. It will prevent and cure genetic diseases that are debilitating and shorten lives, but it isn't such a huge leap from doing that to "curing" other genetic differences. Who decides what is a "correct" human genome? And I thought Eugenics had gone away. And it isn't such a huge leap from that to choosing the colour of hair, eyes, shape of noses and mouths out from a catalogue. And once it becomes fashionable to make changes, then it also becomes fashionable to introduce other body modifications too.

'It's so cool that you have six fingers on your hands.'
'My parents were very creative and pretty progressive! They wanted me to be pianist but I ended up as eSports Champion of 2051 instead.'
'Wow! And who is your friend?'
"Oh! This is my brother, Leo. He has a tail!'

So very Gattaca!

Maybe fashion and style will go super retro as well!

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

Nah! The future is biological.

I agree with this. While it is fun to focus on machinery (flying cars, space ships to Mars) the progress in that field has been relatively unimpressive. But when you look at the state of genetic engineering and, say, mRNA vaccines, the progress in recent decades is absolutely astounding. This technology doesn't get so much attention because, literally, you can't see it. But I think we are finally on the brink of some huge breakthroughs in the fight against major diseases like cancer. Whether we choose to use these advances for the benefit of humanity as a whole, or just another money-making opportunity, is a political rather than scientific question.

 

[BAYLOR]

In 50 , years everyone will be famous for only 5 minute.

 

[Parson]

Parson's predictions for forty years in descending likelihood.

I'll be dead.
Christianity will still be the world's leading religion.
Cars running on petroleum will only be antiques.
Trips to the moon will be available to billionaires, but few of the rest of us.
Manned trips to the other planets will be very rare, and most planets will not yet be visited.
Most genetic diseases will be well on their way to being rare or extinct.
More than a few seaside cities will be deluged or behind dikes.
Canadian farm land will be the most sought after in North America.
Spanish will be a de-facto national language in the USA.
China will be on the decline.
Brazil will be a formidable world power.
India will be hungry again.
Russia will be a third rate world power.

(But all of these assume the continuation of a lot of present trends. A transformative invention (say nuclear fusion) or event (say an even more cataclysmic climate change than the median expectation) could change almost everything.

 

[Swank]

My happy predictions:

Everything from 40 degrees North to 40 South will be uninhabitable, and most remaining countries will have completely different borders - especially after the Himalayan icepack is gone and India dries up early, causing it to invade into the North, as will China. The liberal US and Europe will adopt nasty policies to deal with North Africa and Central American mass migration.

Massive near-earth space infrastructure as the remaining wealth is hurled into using moon-mined materials to build clean energy and a solar shield in orbit.

Rich countries (Saudi) will buy new lands (Australian outback) or invade Antarctica and secure it with nukes and technology.

Personal security becomes total in places with money as personal drone swarms make any sort of violence impossible. Countered by the effect of highly precise military weapons deployed from aircraft.

Several experimental biological experiments to desalinate, carbon-capture, remove microplastics and remove ocean acids cause massive blooms of life that we actively fight to slow the spread.

With reality finally setting in, social media and the effects of AI on it will have sunsetted. AI starts being used to model animal behavior necessary to some day restore complex animals from cloned genes after their extinction.

Personal self sufficient "space suits" that allow people to survive any climate or weather condition become popular, and replace housing for many, fueling a new slow migration.

The most widely embraced classic pop album will be "The Hurting" by Tears For Fears. But just because it is that good and deserving.

 

[Wayne Mack]

Optimistically, I project advances in battery and energy storage technology. Most petroleum-based or using products will have been eliminated; there will be a replacement for plastics as well. Natural resources will be a political issue, with countries mining rare minerals becoming dominant and oil producing nations fading into struggling economic areas.

There will be no easy answer to overcoming gravity and space flight will still be minimal. There will be some additional flights to the moon, primarily for national prestige, but no colonization. There will be a lack of space stations.

Musicians and actors will begin to trademark their voices and looks. Song writers will license singer's voices for their songs. Advances in autotune will result in fewer people learning to sing and play instruments as well. Brass and woodwind instruments will disappear and be replaced with generated fill tracks. Drum machines will replace many drummers. There will be legal cases involving the fair use of images and voices and there will be a division between free use areas and artist protection areas.

Musical acts will stop traveling and instead form residency locations similar to Las Vegas and Branson, Missouri in the US. Newer bands will work on sea cruises. Seeing musical acts will become part of a destination vacation.

Home delivery will increase in popularity and people will be less likely to go out to shop or eat. Autonomous delivery vehicles will become commonplace. There will likely be accidents between delivery vehicles and other vehicles and pedestrian, including some fatalities. There will be a surge of vandalism against delivery vehicles and there will be some urban areas where delivery vehicles will be banned and others where companies refuse to deliver. Rural areas will see a lot of benefit from autonomous delivery.