Speculating about the next fifty years

[CrazyKB]

I think genetics and nano-technology will dominate and probably something that combines the two; bio-tech maybe. If we finally crack nuclear fusion (we'd better!) then that will also be hugely significant.

The old joke regarding nuclear fusion is that it's always five years away every five years.

 

[CrazyKB]

David Langford and Brian Stableford's The Third Millennium had the Soviet Union hanging on into the 2900's...

You can't predict anything - the best you can do is guess. Who was it who said, all literature about the future is disguised comment about the present? (William Gibson?)

Not trying to be a pedantic semantic, however a prediction is essentially a 'guess' about some future event based on the information you have at the time. However, I agree with you.

 

[CrazyKB]

I think stagnation since it appears we are being witheld actual advancement. We had the technology and resources to stop using fossil fuels in the 70's. Have we stopped 40 years later? No.

Technology will be trickled into normal society at a rate that still allows the big boys to stay in charge and decide what we are allowed to have.
Sorry to be a downer, but that is the conclusion I have come to.

And let's not forget that most advances (computers, including the internet, aviation, etc.) usually come from military funded programs.

 

[CrazyKB]

On the whole, for policeman's-scale violence, this doesn't seem to be true of the UK over the last 30 years. Study the graphs and you'll see what I mean:
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cjusew96.pdf
It does seem to be true of the US over the same period however

There appears to be an inverse correlation between camera surveillance and inner city violence. As cameras became more prevalent there was a noticeable drop in urban violence. You had a greater chance of being robbed on a subway back in the 70s or 80s in North America, as opposed to today

 

[CrazyKB]

that would be good. Also, hopefully they will perfect the art of necroing threads, which will be fun to watch Thank you for resurrecting this one, an interesting read. The greatest necro I have seen recently was on a gaming forum. It was a fifteen year old thread, revived earlier this year by somebody who had to do some impressively deep forum diving to dig it up. I'm thinking of it like a form of time travel. We have all these snap shots of moments in time, scattered across the net. Some of them fade away, as sites are closed etc, but many are still there. Think about it. In fifty years time, we will be looking at those old threads like we look at grainy tapes of the Ed Sullivan show. That gives us a decision to make. Do we preserve those threads as they were? or do we keep them alive, for our future selves to revisit and add comment to? Would that sully the historical significance? or would it be our new form of time travelling virtual tourism, skipping around the virtual landscape digging for golden nuggets of history? And what form will that take? Virtual Reality representations of the world wide web, with avatars running around and digging into those old repositories of data? Finding out what your great grandfather posted about the prime minister of Japan on November 3rd, 1999?

We think the Internet has changed the world now? We ain't seen nuthin yet!

I have thought about that since I've joined this website, some of the threads I've read on here were started when I was attending University in my 20s. I have to admit, seeing those dates took me aback.

 

[CrazyKB]

Trying to hold back technological advancement, and avoid the problems it causes thereby, is a dangerous game. Why? Because your opposition might not agree.

That way of thinking reminds me of the nuclear arms race (don't let your opposition get the bigger stick). However, I agree that technological advancement must always allow for the possibility of problems, whether they be mistakes or unforeseen consequences.

 

[Cthulhu.Science]

1. The US will still reject the metric system.
2. The quantity and variety of food crops will continue to increase over the next 50 years and there will still be people starving.
3. Small countries that have developed robust Sovereign Wealth Funds (Singapore, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc.) will expand two tier economies/societies where "Citizens" have everything they need and "Non-citizen" workers will live in abject poverty. These will mostly be domestic and other service workers.
3a. There will be an ever growing population of nationless people who are not citizens of anywhere. Born to "non-citizens" and not accepted as citizens of the nations that their parents or grandparents were born.
4. The expansion of remote work will grow to include such things as operating construction, farming and mining equipment offering "the benefit of foreign workers without the foreigners." This a paraphrase from the movie Sleep Dealer. Great movie and hits the nail on the head.
5. The first remotely piloted commercial plane will be operated. Likely a domestic flight within China.
6. The vast majority of electricity will be produced using solar, wind and other renewables as the money-men desiring the highest profits on electrical production push out the money-men protecting their existing investments in coal, oil and natural gas.
7. The ever elusive goal of electricity too cheap to meter will still elude society. Even as the cost to produce electricity per kWh will continue to decrease, those who own/control its production and distribution will still extract more and more wealth.
8. After an ever declining role of the monarchy under King William, King George of England will agree to transformation effectively ending the monarchy. Though George will retain his vast family wealth.
9. The great Cthulhu will rise from R'lyeh and eat the faithful first.

 

[CrazyKB]

The future is a victim of European thinking.

We are all supposed to have our egos wrapped up in our jobs and the junk we buy.

50 years ago, 1966. The year I graduated from grade school. Star Trek debuted that September. I had been reading science fiction since 1961.

"The under-engineered antiquated technology sitting in my drive way is newer and more expensive than the under-engineered junk sitting in your drive way."


psik

Star Trek liked to push the idea that we'd all lose our obsession over the 'accumulation of things' (Picard said that), however we only grew out of it because everybody in that universe (humanity) had a replicator. Materialism is encoded in our DNA, exacerbated by ubiquitous advertising of all sorts.

 

[CrazyKB]

Its conceivable that machines in 50 will be a hell of lot more powerful and sophisticated to the point where they will be making their own decisions without human input or intervention.

I don't know if we'll be able to produce AI akin to our own brains anytime soon. Complexity isn't the only factor related to intelligence, not to mention we still don't understand much about how our brains produce conscious experience (based on various forms of processing). However, one factor that will play a profound role in computer intelligence in the future will be the advances that take us away from relying on binary processing, allowing computers to process data in three dimensions (DNA computers/quantum computers for example).

 

[Wayne Mack]

And let's not forget that most advances (computers, including the internet, aviation, etc.) usually come from military funded programs.

I'm not sure of this. Agriculture has long been a leading element in technology advancement. I would find it hard to trace the military roots of computer technology and, though the US military did sponsor the DARPA project, most of the Internet technology came from academic research. A lot of networking technology was based on Ethernet, which arose from the ALOHA project by the University of Hawaii. What eventually led to Wi-Fi was research done by commercial companies in conjunction with the IEEE (the Institute of Electronic and Electrical Engineers). Yes, the military took advantage of these technologies, but it was often trailing in adoption and not leading the research.

 

[CrazyKB]

I'm not sure of this. Agriculture has long been a leading element in technology advancement. I would find it hard to trace the military roots of computer technology and, though the US military did sponsor the DARPA project, most of the Internet technology came from academic research. A lot of networking technology was based on Ethernet, which arose from the ALOHA project by the University of Hawaii. What eventually led to Wi-Fi was research done by commercial companies in conjunction with the IEEE (the Institute of Electronic and Electrical Engineers). Yes, the military took advantage of these technologies, but it was often trailing in adoption and not leading the research.

APPANET, which is the precursor to the internet was created by the US department of defence. From what I remember, the internet wasn't initially designed for public use, it became public after it trickled down into the public sector.

 

[Robert Zwilling]

APPANET

This was designed so that in the event of a national emergency where large numbers of the telephone poles got knocked down, a message could still be inputted in one location and received at another location without a direct straight through connection. Each information packet had instructions for reassembling the original message so it did not matter if they did not arrive in the order they were sent out in. Back in those days, the most likely cause of the vast destruction of telephone poles would have been nuclear war. With contributions from people all over the world, it eventually became the internet after the APPANET got shut down. 50 years later, it turns out that the major source of rapid telephone pole destruction is severe weather. The US has not run out of big poles to re-stick in the ground, but it is running out of the power transformers that go on the poles that make the whole thing work in the first place. It's always something. While satellite technology could replace the whole pole stuck in the ground concept, it is still much more expensive than the equipment needed to operate the pole stuck in the ground concept. And as if things never change, the massive satellite array is also facing the same implied problem of being knocked down in large numbers at the same time by some kind of war action.

 

[psikeyhackr]

. Materialism is encoded in our DNA, exacerbated by ubiquitous advertising of all sorts.

I asked an economist with a PhD to explain how an automobile engine worked. He didn't have a clue. But he drove a white SUV. Economists do not talk about the depreciation of durable consumer junk.

If consumers who do not have a clue about the technology they are not materialistic. They are egoistic. The word e-waste did not exist when I repaired hi-fi equipment. Now it is obvious that we are wrecking the planet.

What is a bathtub curve?

Maybe Mr. Spock was the only human in the Original Star Trek. LOL

 

[psikeyhackr]

Bathtub Curve

What Is a Bathtub Curve?

A bathtub curve is a visual representation of the failure rate of a product or group of products over time.

www.upkeep.com

How are consumers supposed to make rational decisions about complex technological products when manufacturers do not have to supply the data?

 

[Robert Zwilling]

The way I look at the broad situation is that a subject can be converted into a big picture. The big picture is then divided up into hundreds of tiny mosaic squares which taken together show the big picture. People then learn everything there is to learn about 1 tiny little square, awarded a degree, and pronounced to be experts with a good paycheck and plenty of benefits.

The problem is at least two fold. One, because they only know what is in their tiny square, they have no idea how the information in their one square interacts with the rest of the squares. At the very least, that is called consequences of actions, something most people choose to ignore. The second problem is that with the rapid collection and advancement of information about a particular square, people now need to recompile their understanding of the information in their square every other year. If they don't reexamine what they thought was true and what was false, then their information base is outdated, which outdates their "degree" or whatever it is that determines their standing in their particular field of expertise.

Philosophers used to take on the responsibility of explaining how everything people did ended up, putting all the little squares back into one big picture, blending the good, the bad, and the ugly into a final result. People no longer want to hear anything that contradicts what they believe to be true or false, holding to the idea that everyone is entitled to form their own set of laws to live by based on what they consider to be acceptable. It used to be everyone was entitled to their own opinion instead of their own set of laws, but that has been upended by the popularity and exposure that social media and self publishing can provide for anyone.

The bottom line is that one has to do all their own research, using multiple sources because it has become perfectly acceptable to present half the facts so long as all the presented facts are true. Its called, oh no, back to school again. Anything which might detract from the perfect picture presented by half the facts can be left out. The old school interpretation of the half the facts story presentation is called lying. Now its just called framing the issue, usually accompanied by some kid of payola, though some do work for free.

 

[CrazyKB]

This was designed so that in the event of a national emergency where large numbers of the telephone poles got knocked down, a message could still be inputted in one location and received at another location without a direct straight through connection. Each information packet had instructions for reassembling the original message so it did not matter if they did not arrive in the order they were sent out in. Back in those days, the most likely cause of the vast destruction of telephone poles would have been nuclear war. With contributions from people all over the world, it eventually became the internet after the APPANET got shut down. 50 years later, it turns out that the major source of rapid telephone pole destruction is severe weather. The US has not run out of big poles to re-stick in the ground, but it is running out of the power transformers that go on the poles that make the whole thing work in the first place. It's always something. While satellite technology could replace the whole pole stuck in the ground concept, it is still much more expensive than the equipment needed to operate the pole stuck in the ground concept. And as if things never change, the massive satellite array is also facing the same implied problem of being knocked down in large numbers at the same time by some kind of war action.

Yes, it was designed during the cold war era for the reasons you explained. I believe it moved into the business world then academia, for example students in the 80s had access to the internet via their universities. However, I do remember reading that personal computers of the 80s (commodore 64 possibly being on of them) could talk to each other via modems and their phone numbers (I remember having the Vic 20 in elementary school) not quite the internet on a consumer level at that point, however it was a crude example of what was about to come.

 

[CrazyKB]

I asked an economist with a PhD to explain how an automobile engine worked. He didn't have a clue. But he drove a white SUV. Economists do not talk about the depreciation of durable consumer junk.

If consumers who do not have a clue about the technology they are not materialistic. They are egoistic. The word e-waste did not exist when I repaired hi-fi equipment. Now it is obvious that we are wrecking the planet.

What is a bathtub curve?

Maybe Mr. Spock was the only human in the Original Star Trek. LOL

Materialism and ego go hand in hand. Our social class system, at least in the West, is based on materialism, which is driven by a desire for social status (ego). Also, not all desires for material goods are based on ego. Although some consider automobiles as a type of social status indicator, there are those who use them for utilitarian purposes only, the way people used horses before the inception of automobiles. Apes (males), for example, have been observed competing for mates by building better nests. Again, materialism appears to built into us as a species (in some more than others though), and it appears to be based in our evolutionary past (sexual selection).

 

[Robert Zwilling]

However, I do remember reading that personal computers of the 80s (commodore 64 possibly being on of them) could talk to each other via modems

Commodore was one brand of computer. IBM and Apple pretty much ruled the personal computer industry. Radio shack had a personal computer. The IBM computers were quickly copied by other computer manufacturing companies. The computer's modem dialed a different phone number for each "web site" you wanted to visit. You could also dial into individual computers. Some of the phone numbers belonged to companies that connected the modem to a collection of sites, all under one roof. That was how AOL got to be huge, it was in effect, the first facebook. There was one service, called Compuserve, which did have a popular science fiction/fantasy forum on it. The computing power for the Compuserve network was provided by the computers powering the H & R Block tax preparation corporation. Their computers had nothing to do outside of the tax preparation season which only lasted a couple of months.

 

[Cthulhu.Science]

Star Trek liked to push the idea that we'd all lose our obsession over the 'accumulation of things' (Picard said that), however we only grew out of it because everybody in that universe (humanity) had a replicator. Materialism is encoded in our DNA, exacerbated by ubiquitous advertising of all sorts.

For decades, my sister prepared photo albums of trips and important events. She has a large stack of them. Now she is disassembling them and sending them to a company to scan them.

The most sentimental of things (of objects) photos, records, "letters and papers" are becoming electronic. One can readily argue that these are physically smaller things, but they are also emotionally large objects. As sentimental objects no longer need a physical presence, the less sentimental items may eventually need less of a physical presence as well.

The young people I know seem to be less sentimental about family heirlooms than my generation or my parents' generation. This current generation seems more ready to put objects they no longer use for sale online.

The average size of new homes built in the US hit a peak in 2015 and is trending smaller. In 2021 the average size was smaller than 2007. Roughly down 10% from the peak.

This isn't the current generation buying. The average size of rental apartments has been on a downward trend for 10 years.

My parents bought furnishings to fill the house they had. I have too. I have a guest room. So now I have a second bed and a second dresser. A dresser that contains spare sheets for that second bed.

As living spaces trend smaller, the desire to purchase stuff to fill and decorate those spaces will decrease with the space provided.

The trend is there. But lets not get too far ahead of ourselves. 50 years is two more generations. It won't be Star Trek sparseness but maybe that generation will be less a generation of hoarders than the last couple of generations have been.

 

[Cthulhu.Science]

Commodore was one brand of computer. IBM and Apple pretty much ruled the personal computer industry. Radio shack had a personal computer. The IBM computers were quickly copied by other computer manufacturing companies. The computer's modem dialed a different phone number for each "web site" you wanted to visit. You could also dial into individual computers. Some of the phone numbers belonged to companies that connected the modem to a collection of sites, all under one roof. That was how AOL got to be huge, it was in effect, the first facebook. There was one service, called Compuserve, which did have a popular science fiction/fantasy forum on it. The computing power for the Compuserve network was provided by the computers powering the H & R Block tax preparation corporation. Their computers had nothing to do outside of the tax preparation season which only lasted a couple of months.

AHHH, modems. The melodious way to hook up to the internet.