The continued decline of traditional publishing

[Brian G Turner]

August financials are in:

1. Publishers report decline sales: A Rough Six Months for Big Book Publishers

Apparently, it's because they lacked a lead title such as Girl on a Train...

Hugh Howey says differently:
A Peek Behind the Curtain - The Wayfinder - Hugh C. Howey

Probably the most damning evidence that publishers can no longer drive sales is the sad excuse for books that have kept them afloat. Last year, it was a rejected rough draft of To Kill a Mockingbird, published against the wishes of the dying author. This year, it’s a play not even wholly written by JK Rowling. And over the last two years, it has been coloring books hiding the slide in physical book sales. None of these things are books. Publishers are no longer in the book trade; they are in the what-the-hell-can-we-do-to-make-a-buck trade.

and

Major publishers have colluded in order to screw the reader, have offered ever worsening book contracts to screw the writer, and have resisted innovation in an attempt to harm their top retail account. Higher prices, fewer rights to authors, and fewer sales channels have been where they’ve exerted their muscle. Let that sink in.

2. Barnes & Noble fires another CEO after making another loss: Sales at B&N Down Over 6% in Q1

Hugh Howey has more comment on this: Rock, Paper, Scissors - The Wayfinder - Hugh C. Howey


Personally, I'm not surprised ebook sales have fallen - publishers are charging silly prices for (Brandon Sanderson doesn't have many ebooks under £10*).

Plus publishers continue to practically give away bestseller paperbacks at anywhere between £3-£3.99 - much cheaper than ebook versions - then complain that they aren't making much profit. Well, duh.

Meanwhile, B&N seems surprised that effectively abandoning ebooks and the Nook would result in bigger loss of income and profits there. But, apparently all their problems can be improved by increasing inventory. Just a shame they overlooked the fact they could easily do that - and directly compete with Amazon - if they pushed back in the ebook market.

In the meantime, I'm still waiting for those big ebook-only imprints in SFF. Apparently, there have been one or two half-hearted attempt, but the digital age is still too new-fangled for publishing house CEOs...

*EDIT for pedants - his most recent novels are £9.99 for the ebook version, usually £2 more expensive than the paperback.

 

[MWagner]

It's difficult to get a true picture of how well publishers are run without the broader context. Are fewer people reading and buying fiction? If so, publishers have the grim task of trying to sustain profits in a shrinking market. Are digital books devaluing fiction in the eyes of readers, the way digital music and movies have devalued those mediums? Maybe publishers could try a subscription model, with readers paying $10 a month to access an entire catalogue of books. But is the fiction market big enough to support that kind of high-volume, low cost model?

I don't doubt that the big publishing houses have made a lot of mistakes. But they're trying to develop new business models in an age of massive disruption in entertainment and digital media. A lot of the factors that they're trying to deal with are out of their control.

 

[Dave]

When you first posted about this before I was skeptical - how can people stop buying real books? - but I think this evidence is now clear and damning, and publishers cannot blame anyone but themselves for their mistakes.

I don't doubt that the big publishing houses have made a lot of mistakes. But they're trying to develop new business models in an age of massive disruption in entertainment and digital media. A lot of the factors that they're trying to deal with are out of their control.

Any business in any market goes through a roller coaster cycle though. To begin with the product is new and innovative and expansion is fast and easy. Then the market becomes mature and there is competition in sales and some competitors are lost. Finally the market declines and if you haven't diversified enough you will decline too. Publishers managed the change from hardbacks to paperbacks successfully but they are not managing this digital change well at all.

 

[Overread]

I think for some there is a theme of trying random things to see what sticks because the sale of ebooks and online sales is a massive change that is really hitting a lot of publishers and retail outlets very very hard and also affecting sales in different ways.

To my mind publishers, if they want to retain control, have got to not only offer better and more lucrative deals to authors, but they've also got to offer way more advertising and push in sales for their signed authors. Then they need to couple that to expanding their capacity to take on new authors. I think in the past they've focused on fewer but bigger names; that worked when they basically controlled the market. Now the floodgates are open and I think they've got to get more authors signed up to sweep up the middle and upper range of what will otherwise go selfpublished. Otherwise they'll get left in the dust. That's both a good thing in some ways but also a bad thing - like it or not publishers do still at least achieve a standard level of product and quality and it would be detrimental to the industry to lose that standard.


As for ebooks competing with Amazon is now like competing with itunes - you can do it but whilst you'll have a slice of the pie you won't take the lions share unless you do something outstanding. I think you also need to consider that your reader has to be better or do something different and then you need to offer compatibility with the other service so that you can get people to jump ship. Rather like Steam on the computer very few people will fully jump ship once they are invested heavily into a distribution system (heck several sale sites on the internet just sell steam-activation-keys). So now most are on Amazon you've got to have a reader that works with Amazon's format and accounts (tablet style on an e-ink reader) otherwise people just won't jump ship.

 

[Jo Zebedee]

For me, the killer has become lack of range in bookstores and generic stock patterns. Bookstores have lost the individual feel and become a storehouse for all things Big Publisher. The minute they ceased to be a destination shop where one had a great sff section and another travel or cookbooks, and became places with the same range, readers - once they saturated that range (and I have read pretty much all I want to in the usual sff sections) - have to go elsewhere to browse.

However there are signs that indie bookstores - those who survived the ebook invasion cull - are rising to that challenge and at be where the paper book market is becoming more embedded. (Usually with a coffee shop to enhance margins)

 

[Overread]

Honestly book shops have it hard - they need huge floorspace but big floor space and a good position cost a lot so many can't afford either. That results in book shops with very limited floorspace and as such they have to chase the big sellers which is going to be the flagship titles for each publisher. That does indeed cut down on diversity; but then again the average Joe only wants the newest Harry Potter etc... kind of book.

Second hand ones are cropping up here and there; but many I know of are crammed into tiny shops with very little space and again suffer the same problem.

It's less attractive to own a shop these days; esp when you basically do have to have a food outlet (which might be a3rd party catering company so you're not even getting a lions share of profits) or other diversification in order to survive. Esp in this day and age where you've got Amazon and Amazon Prime soaking up a huge portion of the new market and second hand - plus many on ebay also eating up your second hand market.


I love browsing book-stores but barring one or two many don't have much in the way of a sci-fi/fantasy section that is neatly ordered (many a secondhand just lumps fiction all together).

 

[chopper]

Hugh Howey normally has a vested interest in saying these things, I think. He's very much an advocate for self-publishing, especially if that benefits Amazon along the way. Waterstones are beginning to come around to the need to cater for a local, physical audience, and I hope that continues, because one thing Amazon cannot provide - and refuses to provide if their policy of deleting reviews is anything to go by - is a real connection between authors and audience.

 

[Overread]

Isn't Amazons connection now GoodReads?

 

[chopper]

hmm, i guess that could be true, but it's not really an effective connection. my opinion, though.

 

[Jo Zebedee]

Hugh Howey normally has a vested interest in saying these things, I think. He's very much an advocate for self-publishing, especially if that benefits Amazon along the way. Waterstones are beginning to come around to the need to cater for a local, physical audience, and I hope that continues, because one thing Amazon cannot provide - and refuses to provide if their policy of deleting reviews is anything to go by - is a real connection between authors and audience.

Except that Waterstones have atrocious terms for indie publishers looking to do anything in their stores -50% is their standard for special events. The average indie author would be lucky to clear 40p a copy on that - whilst Waterstones gets £4-5. Anyone looking for local support may well be better going to the local indie whose terms are probably closer to the 30% mark.

 

[Ursa major]

Rather like Steam on the computer very few people will fully jump ship once they are invested heavily into a distribution system

One would hope that compatibity with Steam -- the ability to run in a Steam environment -- would be many orders of magnitude more complex than the ability of one's reader to cope with different ebook file formats. And those who use Steam will still be changing their hardware every now and again, as will most ebook readers (whatever device -- specialist or otherwise -- they use to display the text).

If a significantly improved e-ink came along -- with better contrast and still without the need for backlighting -- and a non-Amazon device used it (one that could display the current range of ebook formats and could cope with whatever DRM issues existed), I'd think about buying it (given my current Kindle is getting quite old now). I wouldn't care who made it, and I'd actually prefer it not to be associated with a specific ebook vendor, whether Amazon or chain of book stores (although I understand that the price of specialist readers is at least meant to -- or was meant to -- reflect the desire of the seller to buy all one's ebooks from them).

 

[Brian G Turner]

It's difficult to get a true picture of how well publishers are run without the broader context.

This is very true - a lot of the negative figures are based on sales income. There's also continual year-on-year fluctuation due to single big-name bestsellers and fads. No doubt JK Rowling's The Cursed Child has given 2016 sales a good lift.

But as a consumer I get hugely frustrated with the publishing industry and their complaints about not being able to turn a proper profit, especially when they are practically giving away their bestsellers, and refusing to properly embrace the digital age - ebooks treated as an oddity, even bonus, rather than a sales model to chase in itself.

As an author this becomes even more annoying because it means the industry is taking on fewer authors, and taking less risks with those it does take on. It shouldn't be hard to seriously launch ebook imprints for SFF, for example. Even then, the treatment of authors in terms of rights and royalties is atrocious and also needs addressing.

 

[VinceK]

Bookstores have lost the individual feel and become a storehouse for all things Big Publisher.

I jumped through fiery hoops to establish a distribution channel into a major high street book shop. I launched a marketing campaign only to be informed by potential readers that my book was unavailable. I visited a shop myself and placed an order and was told it was on their system but there was no stock. Eventually I discovered they'd setup my account with the wrong distributor, but by then it was too late.

 

[AnyaKimlin]

Except that Waterstones have atrocious terms for indie publishers looking to do anything in their stores -50% is their standard for special events. The average indie author would be lucky to clear 40p a copy on that - whilst Waterstones gets £4-5. Anyone looking for local support may well be better going to the local indie whose terms are probably closer to the 30% mark.

They are also really useless if someone in another store somewhere else requests it - I had a friend it worked out even worse for.

 

[AnyaKimlin]

One thing our local writers groups are doing are going into libraries and bookshops requesting the self published books. Our local library has a policy of giving priority to local authors (you wouldn't believe it was a policy) so we're trying to get them to enact it.

 

[Serendipity]

One would hope that compatibity with Steam -- the ability to run in a Steam environment -- would be many orders of magnitude more complex than the ability of one's reader to cope with different ebook file formats. And those who use Steam will still be changing their hardware every now and again, as will most ebook readers (whatever device -- specialist or otherwise -- they use to display the text).

If a significantly improved e-ink came along -- with better contrast and still without the need for backlighting -- and a non-Amazon device used it (one that could display the current range of ebook formats and could cope with whatever DRM issues existed), I'd think about buying it (given my current Kindle is getting quite old now). I wouldn't care who made it, and I'd actually prefer it not to be associated with a specific ebook vendor, whether Amazon or chain of book stores (although I understand that the price of specialist readers is at least meant to -- or was meant to -- reflect the desire of the seller to buy all one's ebooks from them).

The next upgrade to e-books? How about a brain chip with wireless access to books? Then you can read and absorb the contents of a novel in less than a second, which in turn would mean a bigger market for the digital entertainment industry. Or am I talking science fiction here?

 

[Stephen Palmer]

As an ex-employee of Waterstones I can add that rent is a massive issue (high street prices), but also the book supply model is rubbish - massive overheads and middle-men wanting a cut simply to get the damn things into a shop. Publishers were working on tiny profits twenty years ago; authors too. No wonder ebooks have blown the whole chain apart. But customer orders and stock transfers were always a nightmare, though occasionally the system would work ok. But amongst staff it was known that doing customer orders was the poisoned chalice. I still try to support Waterstones where I can, but they don't make it easy. I think the basic truth is: the internet has revolutionised a lot of our life, not just books and things, and we're still struggling to come to terms with what we've created.

I thank my lucky stars I was picked up by Orbit in 1995 before the internet started having a bad effect on things. It means I had a bit of a profile before self-publishing began, and that's definitely helped. But I saw the way the wind was blowing at the beginning of the 2000's when music began to change for the worse - now publishing is amidst the revolution. Now, I'm all for a good revolution, as many of you know… but you have to have something to replace the old model with!

 

[AnyaKimlin]

The next upgrade to e-books? How about a brain chip with wireless access to books? Then you can read and absorb the contents of a novel in less than a second, which in turn would mean a bigger market for the digital entertainment industry. Or am I talking science fiction here?

I rather like the idea of doing something with the virtual reality headsets. Because of the queasy issues it's a problem with a lot of other things. The more I learned about VR I'd love to do something with it and Mayhem. Getting the world across to people has always been the challenge but I love the idea of doing the odd scene between the words. A lot of it lends itself well to it.

 

[MWagner]

I think the basic truth is: the internet has revolutionised a lot of our life, not just books and things, and we're still struggling to come to terms with what we've created.

In 10 years the book publishing market will be radically different. Publishing is going through the same revolution that music and movies saw, and, sadly, bookstores are going to go the way of HMV stores. I think we'll still have paper books for some time yet, but on a much smaller scale, and few will be sold in brick and mortar stores. And anyone who has seen a new library open recently recognizes that even libraries are no longer about books anymore.

The other trend that music and movies have shown us is that with any digital medium, there will be tremendous pressure from consumers to push the price down to zero. Back in the 90s, I didn't bat an eye at buying a couple CDs a month at $12 CDN each (about $36 altogether in today's dollars). Now I spend $8 a month on a Spotify subscription that gives me access to everything I'd ever want to listen to. I used to rent a couple movies a week at $4 each ($11 a week in today's dollars). Now I have an $8 a month Netflix subscription, and I have to think long and hard before I'll rent a movie from iTunes for $6, and do so maybe once or twice a month.

Given the relentless decline in reading, publishers (and writers) are going to have to adapt to a world where the size of their audience is shrinking, and each member of that shrinking audience expects to pay less for each book.

 

[Overread]

MW to be honest a lot of that drive to lower prices is facilitated by advertising. That I feel is the sleeping bubble that will one day burst. At present we enjoy a time where vast amounts of information and such are free or cheap vai the online network we have built; but I can see a time when all that falls apart and collapses should advertising backfire. AT present we've big companies willing to spend serious money advertising to us which funds the cheap entertainment we enjoy every day.

Take away that advertising and the only recourse to free and cheap is piracy - and whilst that can function in short term it seriously hammers and hits the smaller companies hardest (which is not to say it doesn't hit and harm big companies too).

Moving toward more cloud based computing and a home computer that runs "serverside" more so I see as a direction the industry will attempt to lead the people toward so that regulation and control over content can be more feasibly enforced to crack down on the piracy or at least to cut the casual person out of that loop.