The continued decline of traditional publishing

[AnyaKimlin]

And I can't help but wonder if the ridiculous price of property etc is going to be the cause of it. There's a huge part of me that wonders who is going to have the money to buy my house when my father's generation die off and he is now 75.

 

[Overread]

Thing is with the job market the way it is many people don't want to buy and tie themselves to one area because the next job might be a long way away. The car has brought with it great mobility but its also twisted society so that we are not heavily reliant upon that high degree of mobility.

 

[Tirellan]

All is not lost.
US publisher Kensington are start a SFF/ e-book imprint 'Rebel Base Books'. They will take queries from unagented authors too. The guidelines are not yet up on their site but the editor is Martin Biro.

 

[Martin Gill]

kickstarter and patreon

Good point. I hadn't thought of those.

 

[Brian G Turner]

Jane Friedman provides a good summary snapshot of the industry, which underlines a lot of points made above:
The Publishing Industry in 2016: A Status Update | Jane Friedman

1. Trad. publishers appear dependent on surprise megasellers to maintain sales
2. Trad. publishers are over-pricing ebooks, limiting their sales
3. B&N's plans to add resturants will remove books, making it harder to get titles on shelves
4. Amazon is doing increasingly well

The irony about 1. is that I keep reading that trad. publishers are shrinking their titles and taking on fewer authors, reducing the chance of a surprise debut.

 

[Brian G Turner]

Well, one of the Big 6 heads has gone over the poor sales reported earlier:
Zecher Resigns as HMH CEO

However, I wonder how much impact JK Rowling's The Cursed Child is going to have on reporting for A3 2016, when it finally comes out? Presumably a lot, but will it have an uplift effect across the board as people physically go into shops to buy a copy, picking up something else on the way?

 

[Boneman]

And yet Publishers seem to still have confidence in writers, by offering big advances. They do that with an expectation of a profitable return, so it isn't all doom and gloom. This year alone, so far: Six Six-figure Advances for Debut Writers in 2016

Or sometimes go further to sign novelists, even if they don't make a profit. Interesting comment here:

"But Random House publisher Susan Kamil believes that the honor of having a sparkling literary talent on your list can offset any financial loss. “We want to have the best writers in the world at Random House,” Kamil says. “Sometimes those writers come at a premium—and we have paid it.”

And the full article here: Why publishers are betting big on debut novelists

 

[Ursa major]

I note that the linked article about Zecher's resignation doesn't mention fiction at all, but mainly issues in the El-Hi (Elementary - High School) education market.

 

[Brian G Turner]

And yet Publishers seem to still have confidence in writers, by offering big advances.

I've previous read an article which reported on how the number of larger advances - reported in publishers weekly - has been in decline for a few years now. I can't remember where I found it now - possibly on or via Kristin Nelson's blog at nelsonagency.com.

I note that the linked article about Zecher's resignation doesn't mention fiction at all

The piece simply sales that the company sees a continuing decline in sales. I don't think most Big 6 publishers specialise only in fiction as it's only one part of a much larger market - but it's fiction that usually gets mentioned, perhaps because of the huge sales volumes from breakout authors in the 21st century.

Btw, I just want to underline the point that I'm not trying to knock the publishing industry, simply keep up with news and information on what's happening. I have no doubt that traditional publishing has a long-term future, but is in a state of transition.

 

[Ursa major]

I mentioned it, Brian, because we tend to be interested in the publishing of fiction -- goodness knows why -- while big publishing companies are interested in big sales (of many books per sale) and solid profit margins, things more characteristic of markets such as education.

 

[Jo Zebedee]

I mentioned it, Brian, because we tend to be interested in the publishing of fiction -- goodness knows why -- while big publishing companies are interested in big sales (of many books per sale) and solid profit margins, things more characteristic of markets such as education.

Actually, it's very relevant - academic publishing traditionally brought in big margins (more so than fiction) and has been in decline for a decade or so due to the availability of online research. I used to give my students a reading list of perhaps six books - now it's two and online resource centres. So, with HMH being traditionally strong in academic their sales decline may not paint a true picture of the market.

@Brian Turner - I do feel the chrons have been putting up a one-sided view of the market recently (many from yourself) which does posit the view that trad is dead and self publishing the future. I worry that sets unrealistic expectations in those looking at self publishing - where the majority of books still sink without a trace - and doesn't show the opportunities for writers that trad can still offer.

Let's be honest - if Inish Carraig had been picked up by Orbit or whoever, I'd be a much more high profile writer than I am and, also, considerably better off.

 

[Gonk the Insane]

And the full article here: Why publishers are betting big on debut novelists

Interesting stuff, @Boneman, but the Knopf editor's quote:

The energy and preciseness of her prose…it just completely blew me away.

From an editor? Surely precision rather than preciseness?

Unless I'm utterly wrong and now look like a muppet
It's happened before

 

[Ursa major]

Unless I'm utterly wrong

Not utterly wrong...

...just falling a little short in the accurateness department....

 

[AnyaKimlin]

Let's be honest - if Inish Carraig had been picked up by Orbit or whoever, I'd be a much more high profile writer than I am and, also, considerably better off.

Not necessarily with the better off. I've got a couple of friends who are Big 6 published. Both are fairly well known in terms of profile. Both work insanely hard and whilst they make enough to live off they are not that well off. They are not that well supported with the marketing etc There's a reason that both are self-publishing any work they have that is outwith their contracts. And their bestsellers have nothing to do with Welsh Tractors

A lot of their money comes from presentations and ghost writing for series etc

 

[Brian G Turner]

I do feel the chrons have been putting up a one-sided view of the market recently (many from yourself) which does posit the view that trad is dead and self publishing the future. I worry that sets unrealistic expectations in those looking at self publishing - where the majority of books still sink without a trace - and doesn't show the opportunities for writers that trad can still offer.

Totally agree, which is why I put the comment up above about transition challenges.

There are warnings about contracts and earnings I've picked up from trad published writers, and warnings about the state of trad publishing from people within the business itself. I post these because they now come up on my radar and I think they are potentially interesting and informative.

However, I don't plan on leading any charge for Self-Publishing against Trad Publishing. Where I've posted articles on the benefits of self-publishing it's usually from writers - often from trad - on their experiences of doing so. Which, again, I hope other members may find interesting and informative.

 

[Brian G Turner]

I forgot to mention - my long-term plan is hybrid publishing - meaning that at some point in the future I would like to be in a position to contract the paperback and hardback rights to a publisher that can take care of distribution to bookstores. That's why I bought my own ISBN's - so as not to be tied to CreateSpace, which may do the job for POD but not for long-run print.

And although there have been contract warnings, I've yet to see anything come up specifically about Tor, Gollancz, Solaris, or Angry Robot, etc that might raise concerns. I've met and enjoyed the company of various SFF editors, and am actually a little sad I won't have the pleasure of working with someone like Jane Johnson at HarperVoyager any time soon.

So I'm definitely not against traditional publishing - just to be clear.

 

[AnyaKimlin]

At present the ideal is a mix of the two.

After talking to a variety of authors I think starting with self publishing is a good idea as it is a learning curve.

 

[Denise Tanaka]

I note that the linked article about Zecher's resignation doesn't mention fiction at all, but mainly issues in the El-Hi (Elementary - High School) education market.

An important point that is often overlooked in general discussion about book sales. Adult buy books for the entertainment value, but schools buy books as recommended reading for the curriculum. Books are marketed directly to children, especially here in the U.S. in the elementary grades my kids received a few pages of a book catalog each week. I'm pretty sure the Harry Potter books sold so well (at least in the U.S.) because of this. All the kids would excitedly flip through the catalog as a group, over the lunch table, etc. and talk about which books they want to order. Parents wanted to encourage reading so they bought the books and got an incentive sale price. Sometimes the teacher would coordinate ordering in bulk for the classroom.

 

[Venusian Broon]

An important point that is often overlooked in general discussion about book sales. Adult buy books for the entertainment value, but schools buy books as recommended reading for the curriculum. Books are marketed directly to children, especially here in the U.S. in the elementary grades my kids received a few pages of a book catalog each week. I'm pretty sure the Harry Potter books sold so well (at least in the U.S.) because of this. All the kids would excitedly flip through the catalog as a group, over the lunch table, etc. and talk about which books they want to order. Parents wanted to encourage reading so they bought the books and got an incentive sale price. Sometimes the teacher would coordinate ordering in bulk for the classroom.

They had a very similar scheme in the 1970's Edinburgh primary school system @Denise Tanaka, as I have fond memories of excitedly flipping through the brochure every month and picking out books I'd like. (It also helped that in the 70s you could afford multiple books even with 50p a week pocket money )

I think it was one of the factors that made me love books and reading.

Not sure if they still do it.

 

[HareBrain]

They had a very similar scheme in the 1970's Edinburgh primary school system @Denise Tanaka, as I have fond memories of excitedly flipping through the brochure every month and picking out books I'd like.

Yes! Same in England. I'm looking now at one purchase, The Creepy-Crawly Book, edited by Lucy Berman and published by Target. My first exposure to Sit Walter Scott, Kipling, Henry Williamson, HG Wells, and on and on. 30p.

I had an even better one, something like Ghosts and Goblins, that inspired my interest in folklore, but it went missing long ago, alas.